It will be likely most other countries will be doing the same thing unless something dramatic changes. This is going to go on in one way or another for over a year at least which is a very depressing thought.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
It will be likely most other countries will be doing the same thing unless something dramatic changes. This is going to go on in one way or another for over a year at least which is a very depressing thought.
2 years sounds right. Vaccine will probably get approved within 12-18 months indeed but distribution among population will take months, and they will have to slowly see if that works and there are no mutations at that point that could overcome it to be 100% confident. Simply no country can allow the curve to get very high.
I don't know if it's economically viable but there's no other choice. Having millions of people die is not a solution either. There are thousands of jobs that will not exist for those 2 years though so it's certainly very difficult but it's not like we are presented with a choice here. There's absolutely no way in hell that you can allow people back into stadiums and concerts and not have a massive outbreak again.
So how long do we think the UK lockdown will get extended by? Anything less than 4 weeks is surely too soon?
Yeah 4 weeks I reckon, then we can see what happens to those countries lifting their lockdowns in those 4 weeks and make an informed decision then.
I'm not expecting any changes until June at the earliest and even then likely to be minor loosening of things (kids going back to school most likely). There will likely not be a total return to normal life for probably 2-3 years unless we get a vaccine sorted before then. I'm pessimistic on this because I don't see a way out of this right now.
6k more deaths than usual in the week ending 3rd April, only 3,475 linked to covid-19: ONS dataset
Looks like quite a few covid-19 deaths are going unreported and that dealing with covid is lessening the quality and availability of care provision elsewhere. Also seems like this latter factor could more than counterbalance the number of deaths from covid who would have died anyway.
Looks like quite a few covid-19 deaths are going unreported and that dealing with covid is lessening the quality and availability of care provision elsewhere. Also seems like this latter factor could more than counterbalance the number of deaths from covid who would have died anyway.
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Mega lolz. I swear you’ve literally repeated the exact same posts about 200 times now.
France extended until 11 May yesterday, Belgium will extend until 3 May tomorrow, probably with possibility to extend further until mid-May.
You shouldn't be hopeful for anything before mid-May, realistically.
They'll extend by "at least another 3 weeks".
I replied to you because you seemed to believe older people were all wealthy and living off good pensions, which is far from the truth.
You've now introduced a new question and my answer is that a great many people of all ages will be affected by a lengthy depression. If you must insist on bringing age into it then the difference is the over 50s will have less time to do anything about it. It's common for those in their 30s and 40s to struggle to raise a family and have nothing left over, but look upon their final decade of work as the time to save and prepare for their own retirement, and it's looking as though for many that won't happen.
Health minister literally said this today so it's not just my view now. You think it's unrealistic to have no mass gatherings for 2 years?
We are actually opening up pretty early but our curve has not got that high. We locked down when we were at like 10 cases per day I think so we did not allow it to spread too much. Our total death count is a third of daily deaths in UK in recent days.
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The 'people do not develop antibodies' is a bit misleading. One of Chinese studies showed 6% of people did not develop them. Antibodies are not needed in everyone to prevent disease from spreading, even if 80% of patients develop antibodies and are immune it's good enough to slow it down very significantly. Also I don't think it's going to matter for vaccine, and vaccine will be there long before we can achieve 'herd immunity' from getting everybody sick. Even if you allowed 50,000 people to get sick every day in UK it'd take you almost 3 years to get 'herd immunity' and you obviously can't allow 50k to get sick every day.
I thought this was a discussion about coronavirus, not about economic to and fro about generation x,y or z... please keep to the topic!
They are related.
Are you a mod?
The “lockdown” phase is surely just stalling for time whilst we measure how deadly the disease it, how easily it’s transmitted, how long it takes to recover etc...as well as doing the necessary to help bolster defences.
The question is, what do we do next? Because it seems to be commonly accepted that there will be no widely available vaccine for at least one year, if not two. I also think we all accept that we can’t operate under lockdown conditions for a prolonged period of time.
The question is, what do we do next? Because it seems to be commonly accepted that there will be no widely available vaccine for at least one year, if not two. I also think we all accept that we can’t operate under lockdown conditions for a prolonged period of time.
Lockdown is a response to not knowing anything about the virus. We have to close everything because we don't know what spreads it and what doesn't. Once we understand it better we can restart activities we know are not major factors in it's transmission.
I'd say we are getting there. Some countries are learning that it doesn't spread much in supermarkets, for example. We can probably extend that to other stores of a similar size/type.
i'm pretty sure pension funds get less risk averse the closer to retirement you are. so whilst i'm sure they have still been battered, it won't be to the same extent as someone younger.
Relax some measures, keep others. Ramp up testing and contact tracing so we can respond very quickly to those who show symptoms and get them and their contacts isolating. Those who can work from home keep working from home. Widespread use of face-masks once enough have been produced and supplied. Contact tracing apps. Try to find the best treatment options. Then hope for the best.
Not sure what more there is that could be done.
22 Swedish scientists have lambasted the government for their “failed” tactic.
https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/...digheten-har-misslyckats-med-sin-coronastrate
https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/...digheten-har-misslyckats-med-sin-coronastrate
Fair point - hadn’t accounted for that despite it being an obvious thing!
How on earth are we going to get close to Matt Hancocks promise of 100,000 tests per day when we’re struggling for 15,000!
Let me just to clarify.
My short and provocative post wasn't trying to say that the young are suffering more than any other group. I'd rather be 24 right now than 74. However, I think the media and the general public discourse hasn't concentrated on the devastating economic impact. Which obviously affects everyone but people who don't have a stable job, their own home, savings, access to credit and assets are destined for destruction.. and that's the young.
I'm speaking of young graduates in their early 20s who have no savings, no stable job and now now way getting one. Just look at the some of writing from Mervyn King (former Governor of the Bank of England) he predicts a substantial political backlash from the young if we end up being the ones paying for this.
I'd guess that one of the likely side effects of this will be a housing market crash so you might find that houses will become more affordable which will help.
I don’t care what you’re saying bud. I was replying to someone. You don’t get to take that for yourself.
But as you popped your head up - people in their early 20’s now have ample opportunity ahead of them to get a job. Think on a longer timescale than next week. My post you quoted still mitigates yours.
‘Political backlash from the young’. I’d love to see it. I’d love to see young people at least attempt to shape the world in their image. Some kind of effort beyond complaining online. If ever there was a time to tear down existing structures and replace them with better ones, it’s now.
You sound very confident and I applaud you but there is an actual scientist stating that she is 80% sure that one will be approved in September. Look it up.
Comparing it to normal vaccine development type is pointless, due to the effort and money invested in the search for this one, which are both unprecedented.
Radio 4 says people in care homes are being certified as dead by doctors over the phone. The doctors haven't seen them, so are reluctant to put covid as the cause of death without evidence. Their treatment must have been minimal. It might make sense to concentrate hospital resources on those with a better chance of recovery, but I find it strange it's happening all over the country with such little discussion.
One scientist vs the vast majority of other scientists saying that 18 months is best case scenario which will require a lot of luck. Not saying it isn't possible for it to happen before then and I really hope it does but realistically that person saying September is very much in the minority. I was listening to a micro-biologist on the radio this morning who said he felt it would be 2 years minimum. I guess the main thing is that nobody knows right now but the general time frame we can work from is that on average a vaccine takes over 7 years to develop and get to where it can be mass produced.
3... 2... 1....
What the hell? Your first sentence is something I’ve said at all. I said older peoples pensions haven’t been proportionately affected as much. Which is true.
Just went back and looked through my posts and have no idea where you’ve got that from. What have I said that isn’t factual?
6k more deaths than usual in the week ending 3rd April, only 3,475 linked to covid-19: ONS dataset
Looks like quite a few covid-19 deaths are going unreported and that dealing with covid is lessening the quality and availability of care provision elsewhere. Also seems like this latter factor could more than counterbalance the number of deaths from covid who would have died anyway.
This has been the case in a number of other countries, it's not exclusive to the UK. It's just not been possible to test everybody who needs it and testing the deceased outside of hospitals has not been a priority.
Yeah restaurants I think will be okay, they can just have a limt of 50% bookings at one time maximum, so the place is always half-empty. Bars will be more difficult to police but the majority could be covered - basically, you tell them "look, we will allow you open as long as you guarantee your bouncers will keep the place 50% full maximum. If you are randomly visited and are over that, you're closed indefinitely - pick your poison and play by the rules".
My prediction remains the same as did it right at the beginning. Another 3 weeks, followed by (at the end of that) a definitive date being provided by the PM which equates to 2 weeks later. A total of 8 weeks altogether. I personally think this was the plan all along, but they've played it incrementally to try and keep people as sane and obedient as possible.
Ah, sorry Posh, the first part of my reply was for someone else, my mistake.
Hope the second bit made sense.
Think that would kill a lot of places that rely on their busy peak times to carry quieter days of the week.
Profit margins are currently too tight for restaurants to stay open if they’re only ever 50% full. Will need a whole new business model to survive. Or some sort of radical intervention from the government. No more VAT?
It does bur if you go back and re read my posts you’ll see it’s not as simple as people losing all their pension funds just before retirement. The people that will be mostly affected are those that have actively sought out more risky types of pension like flexi-access drawdown etc. It would be good to hear from anyone on the cafe who is approaching retirement or recently retired to hear about their own experiences.
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Bars is a no-no for me, people won’t be able to restrain themselves when the alcohol is flowing
Then again over half the pubs have disappeared in my town over the last few years as they can't make a profit, I don't see why restaurants should be any different in the medium term or longer.
They not only have a concerning number of deaths, their number of serious/critical cases is higher than most countries of similar population/development level except Netherlands and Belgium. It will only get worse in the short term.
Idiots.
Well, I wouldn't really call this a "lockdown" - thousands of non-essential workers are still going to work every day, the airports are open and planes are regularly arriving from other infected areas, with no checks at all on disembarking passengers.
The government will say that the current measures need to be extended by at least another three weeks. How many more extensions we get beyond that is anyone's guess.