SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Smores said:
Unless you've got any figures (ones that aren't made up by you) to back any of these assertions up i hope people take it as the hyperbolic nonsense that it is.
Click to expand...
More staggering unemployment figures are coming out of the United States.

Some 6.6 million people filed for unemployment benefits last week. That takes the total number of claims in the last three weeks to more than 16 million - truly unprecedented figures.

To put these numbers in context - nine million jobs were lost in the 2008 financial crisis over a much, much longer period.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/sarahh...continues-to-ravage-the-economy/#352dc1394526

Here's further context in the form of a graph that has already seen jobless claims in the US rise by over 8 times it's previous record.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EVKa_KjUEAEA9tY?format=jpg&name=small
 
Last edited:
Don't Kill Bill said:
We are at around 1000 deaths per day. So this is it, where your thinking gets us(I am not saying you are wrong). A lock down that gives us this amount of deaths for the next six months.

That is best case.
Click to expand...
Lockdown started on 23.3.(?). Median death happens 21 days from infection, so we aren't seeing full effects of lockdown yet. Deaths will start to go down in UK just like they did in Italy.

UK can improve its testing and contact tracing a lot, as well as have people wearing masks. So we don't know everything yet.
 
Brwned said:
What makes the decision appear evil in people's eyes is not that it will directly lead to lost lives, but that it's animated by selfish motivations. Most people believe that the economic effects will lead to lost lives too, and tough decisions need to be made. What's driving those decisions is what people are concerned with.
Click to expand...

Here in South Africa before the virus put us on a 3-week lockdown which has since been increased by another 2 weeks we already were in a recession, compounded with being dropped into Junk status. Our unemployment rate was around 30% and a lot of people depend on day to day jobs to survive. People dig through our dustbins to get the plastic bottles so they can survive. The economic issues that most 1st world countries have thrown money cannot be done over here people over here face the very real threat of starving to death. Already made me chuckle people priorities 4 bottle stores have been looted because of the ban of smokes and booze sales. If this lockdown continues longer than the 5 weeks I really can see social unrest starting to rear its ugly head. Already my son's nursery school teacher has lost her job not 2 weeks into lockdown. Crazy times.
 
Dancfc said:
More staggering unemployment figures are coming out of the United States.

Some 6.6 million people filed for unemployment benefits last week. That takes the total number of claims in the last three weeks to more than 16 million - truly unprecedented figures.

To put these numbers in context - nine million jobs were lost in the 2008 financial crisis over a much, much longer period.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/sarahh...continues-to-ravage-the-economy/#352dc1394526

Here's further context in the form of a graph that has already seen jobless claims in the US rise by 8 times it's previous record.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EVKa_KjUEAEA9tY?format=jpg&name=small

It's only a matter of time before the reprocussions not only in the long term but in the moment will be so severe no form of something that even can be passed off as a recovery will happen in our lifetimes.
Click to expand...

I'm still failing to see how this tracks against the claim of 60% of businesses or the UK economy being so severely damaged that it can't fund the NHS or general welfare. The US isn't the best example as their rights are so far behind ours.

I'm certainly not arguing that the damage won't be severe especially on a personal level for SMEs but we're not in danger of either of these things unless we go into a decade long decline which sees big business crumble or leave.

As ever it's the little guy that will feel this and during the downturn big business will continue to make hay.
 
Dancfc said:
Not if we turn into a poverty stricken society, no.

If the majority of people are unemployed, where the hell will the taxes come to keep all these families fed? Not to mention keep the NHS protected...
Click to expand...
But pretending that opening up shops etc that abides by stead fast, bad needled health guidelines, will keep our economy going will not work.
Too many people out there will not risk it. The loss of jobs and business is simply unavoldable. Its the poorest people in the country that are being pushed forward in this very thread that will be the first to go.
Unless all ideas of social distancing and protecting the vunerable is mass forgotten by the public then the willing customer base just isnt there to keep the econony flowing.
Pubs in the area around me closed willingly before the lockdown simply because everybody stayed home that weekend. It was like a ghost town. Those businesses dont suddenly survive if regulatations are eased. Hell the public demanded closures here in Ireland
 
Smores said:
I'm still failing to see how this tracks against the claim of 60% of businesses or the UK economy being so severely damaged that it can't fund the NHS or general welfare. The US isn't the best example as their rights are so far behind ours.

I'm certainly not arguing that the damage won't be severe especially on a personal level for SMEs but we're not in danger of either of these things unless we go into a decade long decline which sees big business crumble or leave.

As ever it's the little guy that will feel this and during the downturn big business will continue to make hay.
Click to expand...
Brexit

It's morbidly funny how the whole country was desperate for Brexit to be over, by hook or by crook. Then when it finally happened on 31 January 2020 and C19 started on EXACTLY the same day. It was like the gods giving us the middle finger for being little piss-ants.
 
Last edited:
Skills said:
It's the same test from everything I know. The test kit is what you use to to preserve the sample you take from someone.

The sample is then tested in a lab in a PCR. Funnily enough, my friends company in the middle are looking at supplying the kits from South Korea in different countries in the middle east. He sent me the sales pack for it
Click to expand...

So I was looking at this sales pack again, and it seems like the biggest bottleneck is that the PCR test takes ~ 2 hours to run.

And just looking online - most PCR machines are designed in a "96 well format" i.e. tests 96 samples in one go.

So one machine across a 3-shift pattern ~ 80% total productivity can carry out about a 800 tests per day.

Again looking online - one of these things costs about $25k USD. At the moment we have the capacity for 16,000 tests per day so to get to about 100,000 per day it will take another ~105 of these machines which is about $2.6m USD. Demand is probably quite high though & you have to factor in other costs such as the kits, labour, labs. Luckily we do have a lot of labs in this country - our universities definitely have the capability to support this on that type of scale.
 
Last edited:
Regulus Arcturus Black said:
Such a stupid point.

Why is New York much worse than Massachusetts?

Sweden’s second City Gothenburg is doing as well as their neighbors capitals (so far) which are of a similar size.
Right now Stockholm, an area of 2.3 million people, the most populous in the Nordics and where the virus has been circulating since late February has just 523 deaths and just 213 people in ICU.
Does that really tell that Sweden were “wrong”? Think again.
Click to expand...
Deaths per million
Sweden: 88
Finland: 10
Norway: 23
 
SAred said:
Here in South Africa before the virus put us on a 3-week lockdown which has since been increased by another 2 weeks we already were in a recession, compounded with being dropped into Junk status. Our unemployment rate was around 30% and a lot of people depend on day to day jobs to survive. People dig through our dustbins to get the plastic bottles so they can survive. The economic issues that most 1st world countries have thrown money cannot be done over here people over here face the very real threat of starving to death. Already made me chuckle people priorities 4 bottle stores have been looted because of the ban of smokes and booze sales. If this lockdown continues longer than the 5 weeks I really can see social unrest starting to rear its ugly head. Already my son's nursery school teacher has lost her job not 2 weeks into lockdown. Crazy times.
Click to expand...
fecked up situation we, and the rest of the developing world, find ourselves in yeah. The government will have to relax certain restrictions to curtail unrest, as you rightly pointed out.

People barely survived before the virus and with a lockdown, we don’t have near the capital of the developed world to help us along. On the plus side, Cyril’s at least acted swiftly and decisively. Whether you agree with the extent of the lockdown or not. So kudos to the government for that.
 
Ish said:
fecked up situation we, and the rest of the developing world, find ourselves in yeah. The government will have to relax certain restrictions to curtail unrest, as you rightly pointed out.

People barely survived before the virus and with a lockdown, we don’t have near the capital of the developed world to help us along. On the plus side, Cyril’s at least acted swiftly and decisively. Whether you agree with the extent of the lockdown or not. So kudos to the government for that.
Click to expand...

First time I have actually respected Cyril he acted swiftly and with some backbone but come 3 weeks time he has to make a rather very difficult choice and even than world travel won't be happening, imports/exports won't be happening so unlock the lockdown with limitations but this country will still have a large number of increased unemployment numbers and this will not change until the world gets the confidence to move again or a vaccine has been found - its madness I tell madness crazy times.
 
massi83 said:
Lockdown started on 23.3.(?). Median death happens 21 days from infection, so we aren't seeing full effects of lockdown yet. Deaths will start to go down in UK just like they did in Italy.

UK can improve its testing and contact tracing a lot, as well as have people wearing masks. So we don't know everything yet.
Click to expand...

With global CV19 deaths at around 105,000 and UK deaths about top 10,000 (hospitals only) we really do need to understand why we account for almost 1/10 deaths.

And in particular why similar nations like Germany has managed to limit their deaths significantly lower.

Yes I know about Italy, Spain and France.
But we should be comparing ourselves with the best and not the worst.
 
Dante said:
There have been some mixed messages and incompetence, I agree. The government have been on one side of things but I'm not really too fussed about the media campaign.

The actual strategy that''s being espoused by SAGE is far more important, imo. And they're evidently setting out for a marathon, not a sprint. That means following the same plan as everybody else but timing each stage with a view to lasting the course.
Click to expand...

So basically the same strategy as every other country. Trying to time the beginning and end of each lockdown to hit an optimal balance between preserving the economy and saving lives.

Only with a level of faffing about and uncertainty in the very early stages of the first wave that we didn’t see in any other EU country that had a similar amount of warning. Which is why the UK stats make such grim reading.
 
Buster15 said:
With global CV19 deaths at around 105,000 and UK deaths about top 10,000 (hospitals only) we really do need to understand why we account for almost 1/10 deaths.

And in particular why similar nations like Germany has managed to limit their deaths significantly lower.

Yes I know about Italy, Spain and France.
But we should be comparing ourselves with the best and not the worst.
Click to expand...
There will be plenty of data to analyze after this. We shouldn't be comparing to just a couple of countries though. More the better. Hopefully we can learn from this.

Lesson one. Fund pandemic response readiness.
 
Cardboard elk said:
This is wrong. Studies have showed very low levels of antibodies, and also some people have no trace of antibodies whatsoever. We know far too little, but there are signs that immunity might last only for a short period of time. So say you get 80% of the poulation immune before end of july. Then already in july the first people to catch Covid-19 might already no longer be immune and get if for a second time.
Vaccination might be the only solution, if neither works, then this will be among us like a cold that sweeps through the population over and over again.
Click to expand...

I’m not sure there is anything like enough reliable data to say how long immunity lasts for this virus just yet. It might be the few reported cases of relapse are due to error, or are within expected bounds. We don’t know yet.

Seems to me our best hope, before a vaccine is released ( and it sound like one will be, eventually ) is treatment options improve while health capacity continues to grow. Lots of work being done in that area, so some grounds for optimism.
 
SAred said:
From Worldometer the world is sitting on plus-minus 1.8 million confirmed cases of which plus-minus 110000 have died and 410000 have recovered so looking at the amount that dies is around a 5th of the amount that recovers. So with plus-minus 1.3 million active cases out there that can go either way and based on the numbers that have had an outcome then plus minus a quarter of a million people are at risk of losing their lives.
Click to expand...
It doesn't work like that.

Best estimate of mortality rate is 1% or a bit under I believe. Obviously more if you're older or less if you're younger.
 
Buster15 said:
With global CV19 deaths at around 105,000 and UK deaths about top 10,000 (hospitals only) we really do need to understand why we account for almost 1/10 deaths.

And in particular why similar nations like Germany has managed to limit their deaths significantly lower.

Yes I know about Italy, Spain and France.
But we should be comparing ourselves with the best and not the worst.
Click to expand...
Germany doesn't have a city like London or Paris.
 
nickm said:
I’m not sure there is anything like enough reliable data to say how long immunity lasts for this virus just yet. It might be the few reported cases of relapse are due to error, or are within expected bounds. We don’t know yet.

Seems to me our best hope, before a vaccine is released ( and it sound like one will be, eventually ) is treatment options improve while health capacity continues to grow. Lots of work being done in that area, so some grounds for optimism.
Click to expand...

Yes of course, lots to learn still!

However, I wasn't talking about the relapse numbers, but of the low levels of antibodies (and in some cases NO antibodies) found in younger person that were infected and had mild symptoms.
The older you were the more antibodies. All of this could mean that a) anti body tests might not work for everyone, and might not be the tool we hoped for. b) Some can get infected more than once and infect others due to not showing symptoms or having mild symptoms (since they might not be positive on antibody tests, nor require normal testing) All of this of course makes the disease even worse in several ways. Even for a vaccine, this MIGHT be bad news, it can effect how long a vaccine lasts and how many is needed to be efficient etc. WHO is looking at these things as well as other reasearchers around the globe. Hoping for good news. Seems like we will have to wait for months to get a better understanding though.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-ne...antibodies-in-patients-research-39115374.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/10/health/coronavirus-antibody-test.html
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/sci...rus-low-antibody-levels-raise-questions-about
 
Compton22 said:
I'm very worried about having a vaccine that has taken a year to be fast tracked through trials. Some are even suggesting a vaccine in Autumn this year, not nearly enough time to study its effects surely?
Click to expand...
A vaccine in autumn could well be catastrophic. You're right that human trials need significantly longer to assess side effects.

My fear is that, in order to save face, governments (in particular, America) will just throw cash at a fast-tracked vaccine to be first to announce it 'Look at me, we did it, we're the best!'. It'll be pushed through on a wave of money and the calls of concern from the scientists working on it will be drowned out.

I can also guarantee that if this is the route the US goes down, Trump will have some conflict of interest in it which has not been broadcast.
 
worldgonemad said:
Just been watching CNN news and their reporter in china is saying authorities are actively blocking universities and research institutions from researching the origins of the virus. Very suspicious behaviour and worth seeing if the story develops further

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sou...AhAB&usg=AOvVaw23NQCcFQtY7l3NM7vIJw2y&ampcf=1

Editied to add link to uk article
Click to expand...

I wouldn't believe 100% what anyone says these days. Damn if they did and damn if they didn't. Can you imagine the furor if the papers show something else and if the reality is another?
It will say Chinese hospital published false narrative of the virus. So in these things it's better to be double sure.
 
SAred said:
First time I have actually respected Cyril he acted swiftly and with some backbone but come 3 weeks time he has to make a rather very difficult choice and even than world travel won't be happening, imports/exports won't be happening so unlock the lockdown with limitations but this country will still have a large number of increased unemployment numbers and this will not change until the world gets the confidence to move again or a vaccine has been found - its madness I tell madness crazy times.
Click to expand...
Yeah man. As is common in life, the poorest of the poor will be hardest hit - either by the virus (which is why we’ve acted so “early and decisively” to try and protect them) or ironically, if not by the virus, they will also feel it economically if things don’t open up. Of course there’s also a much broader range and variety of people impacted. No denying that. But it’s a feck up, either way.
 
I'm a vaccine advocate but any vaccine released in 2020, or 2021 for that matter, will have been rushed and I'd question the safety of it. Having said that, I have no better answer if this thing keeps reappearing.
 
Buster15 said:
With global CV19 deaths at around 105,000 and UK deaths about top 10,000 (hospitals only) we really do need to understand why we account for almost 1/10 deaths.

And in particular why similar nations like Germany has managed to limit their deaths significantly lower.

Yes I know about Italy, Spain and France.
But we should be comparing ourselves with the best and not the worst.
Click to expand...
Age, size of major cities, size of country, tourist cities, timing of tests, age of people tested, health service, timing of decisions.

Some of those they probably got better, some UK can't compare to.

We can make broad-brush assumptions but I don't think any like for like comparison can be 100%/very accurate
 
.
Steven Seagull said:
But we need to think more pragmatically than just saying feck everything. What happens when you say feck everything and turn the lights out?
Click to expand...

What we are seeing now is pragmatism. The most incredible piece of pragmatism I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. Closing down the economy virtually in the whole developed world is unreal. Unsustainable yes but at this moment in time almost every government across the northern hemisphere has done exactly the same. Worldwide pragmatism going on right in front of our eyes.

Nobody as far as I can see is saying feck everything and turn the lights out. When I say feck my job and feck the economy it doesn’t mean I’m saying feck them forever. I’m still going to work. I’m still doing my bit to keep my company from going under, keeping my family funded and doing my bit for the economy. I can’t do anymore.

When I say feck my job and feck the economy I am saying it in the context of waking up and wanting to know everyone I know and love is ok. Wanting to know my friends parents who have both been admitted to hospital with cv-19 are ok. Wanting to know my friend who is isolating off after being with his parents is ok. Wanting to know my elderly neighbours and aunties, who are all alone, are ok.

Humans and lives or £’s? £’s are important but there’s no comparison. And maybe there will be loss of life indirectly caused by lockdown but surely not as many as would would be lost by the alternative?

My job and the economy are way down on my current list of priorities. Of course if I lost my job we’d be up shit creek really quickly and I don’t know what I’d do in that situation but it is not something I’m worried about in comparison to my other worries. My Mrs has already lost her job.

This lockdown is unreal, economically destructive and can’t continue forever but everything will find a way. We have to. As a species we have to get through it but anyone thinking that things will bounce back to normal when this is over should think again. This is the time for change.

And as someone else pointed out, I’m not actually full of doom and gloom. There’s parts of all this that I really like. The sudden focus on friends and family and out close neighbours is brilliant. Some elements of the lockdown are refreshing.

I’ve barely spent a penny in 3 weeks and our life has been no worse for it. We’re being less picky over food and making do with what we have in.Roads are emptier. I feel less rushed and calmer in a way I’ve not felt for years. Me and my Mrs are talking so much more about important things and we feel much stronger. There’s things I want to carry with me beyond the lockdown.

So of course lockdown will have to be lifted at some point but some people need to have a bit of patience, we’ve got to tough it out for a while yet. Lifting it too early and we could be right up shit creek really quickly. No solution will save every job and every life.
 
Here's a crazy idea - why don't we just stop the clocks for a year? No mortgages, no rent, no debit orders, no nothing! Then next year is 2020 again and we're all one year older in reality ;)
All affluent, like-minded individuals know this won't work.
 
Dancfc said:
More staggering unemployment figures are coming out of the United States.

Some 6.6 million people filed for unemployment benefits last week. That takes the total number of claims in the last three weeks to more than 16 million - truly unprecedented figures.

To put these numbers in context - nine million jobs were lost in the 2008 financial crisis over a much, much longer period.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/sarahh...continues-to-ravage-the-economy/#352dc1394526

Here's further context in the form of a graph that has already seen jobless claims in the US rise by over 8 times it's previous record.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EVKa_KjUEAEA9tY?format=jpg&name=small
Click to expand...

There's three factors to consider for the economic impact: the depth of the economic pause, the length of the economic pause, and the shape of the recovery. The experts don't really have a clue about the latter, but there's some early signs in China that suggest it could be very quick recovery. Obviously the unprecedented economic policies taken by so many governments are aimed at making it that "v-shaped recovery". In which case the depths we're reaching right now aren't very indicative of the levels we'll return to post-pandemic.

SAred said:
Here in South Africa before the virus put us on a 3-week lockdown which has since been increased by another 2 weeks we already were in a recession, compounded with being dropped into Junk status. Our unemployment rate was around 30% and a lot of people depend on day to day jobs to survive. People dig through our dustbins to get the plastic bottles so they can survive. The economic issues that most 1st world countries have thrown money cannot be done over here people over here face the very real threat of starving to death. Already made me chuckle people priorities 4 bottle stores have been looted because of the ban of smokes and booze sales. If this lockdown continues longer than the 5 weeks I really can see social unrest starting to rear its ugly head. Already my son's nursery school teacher has lost her job not 2 weeks into lockdown. Crazy times.
Click to expand...

Undoubtedly the impacts of lockdowns will be unevenly spread, across countries and within countries, depending on the nature of the work and the policies designed for them. Every country will need to make some terrible decisions and in the worst-hit areas, I think there's a big danger of social unrest regardless of which route they take. A lot of people won't sit quietly while lives are lost to save jobs. In the UK there's a clear consensus that saving every life matters more than protecting the economy, but obviously context matters a lot. The UK is able to do both quite well for now. For those relying on day-to-day jobs, a non-existent physical economy without economic protection from the government is life-and-death if it goes on long enough.

In any case, I think it's safe to say the plight of the full-time employee forced to work from home won't really feature on anyone's list of concerns.
 
Shakesey said:
Here's a crazy idea - why don't we just stop the clocks for a year? No mortgages, no rent, no debit orders, no nothing! Then next year is 2020 again and we're all one year older in reality ;)
All affluent, like-minded individuals know this won't work.
Click to expand...
No, because then I’ll have people in my extended family saying shit like “I’m not 51 I’m doing fifty again” and thinking they’re hilarious.
 
SAred said:
I'm talking about the people that actually have the virus, if you get it you have a 1 in 5 chance of not making it.
Click to expand...
To get the percentage you're looking for you would have to add to your recovered figure all those that have had the virus but never been tested. Many who have caught it will never have been tested because they haven't been ill enough to have been hospitalised, they will have recovered on their own. Indeed it looks like many that catch it have symptoms so minor they don't even know.
 
Last edited:
Continue the lockdown until we get a grip on things. Meaning hospital admissions trending right down. Then gradually lift when testing capacities at local level have better infrastructure so that we can continue isolating the vulnerable, social distancing in hot spot areas.

The trouble is that all of that requires nuance and our government initially tried to be way too clever with behaviour psychologists. What makes it even more egregious and negligent that they did this little social experiment knowing our ITU capacity, no distribution PPE network or logistics or plan for mass testing or testing for healthcare workers.

I don't know what the answer is. I think to be honest I'm just traumatised by seeing, discussing death so much so much now and so often, just really hesitant to do anything that could risk accelerating this. I'm probably not aware or cognisant of the economic implications but I just feel its beyond that now, or it should be.
 
Is it possible to be on 'deaths door' with this virus yet at the same time not require a ventillator?
 
Fecking nightmare wearing a mask with glasses on, they keep fogging up every time I exhale.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.