SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

One Night Only said:
You talk like it's certain death catching it.

I'd rather be on this semi lock down and still working, keeping economy moving and keeping my own finances and stuff in check.
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Some people seem to have mentally given up on life, man. I never considered myself to be a massively positive or optimistic person until this virus arrived. It's been a real eye-opener for me, because I've seen just what true pessimism really is.

On another note, I've started learning another language. The very first thing I'm going to do when this blows over is to start applying for jobs in that country, I no longer want to be a part of the UK. We have a population that has - for the most part - voted for a bigoted Conservative party in their droves despite that party having zero interest in them. I'm talking about the working class voters, who have basically voted for a bunch of bigoted toffs because they echoed racist and xenophobic beliefs. Forget the fact that those bigoted toffs consider those voters to be dogshit on the soles of their shoes.

And you know what? They will vote for them again simply because the PM caught coronavirus.

I don't want to be associated with this country anymore. Soon as I can, I'm out.
 
cyberman said:
The econony is going tits up anyway? Just before the lockdown my girlfriends work slashed hours due to the public staying in along with a desperate attempt at trying home delivery to make up for it. It didnt work.
Now when we see the effects of not social distancing etc and we reopen, what happens when cases rise again? A large percentsge of people will stay at home because they know thats how to slow the virus
With this disease around there isnt an economy to save. A lot of people will have hours slashed or simply just let go when foot traffic is a third of what it was, if that. Regardless of what we do, this is a recession thst will cripple most of us.
Theres many 'poor' people out there who have had their income saved by this lockdown who just dont know it yet.
Pubs, clubs etc are fecked no matter what we do.
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Of course some things are fecked. It's a terrible situation for everybody to be in. But we need to think more pragmatically than just saying feck everything. What happens when you say feck everything and turn the lights out?
 
cyberman said:
Because it becomes less open when everybody flocks to it?
Up here in Donegal, Ireland we have lovely beaches and wide open spaces. Only thing is it becomes chock a block when Derry folk flock over during the good weather or holidays. With everybody off work that could be everyday during the summer.
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I'm not suggesting open spaces are acceptable. I dont know. Health authorities will be beginning to understand by now what is safe and what conditions the virus is most likely to spread under.
 
Steven Seagull said:
Of course some things are fecked. It's a terrible situation for everybody to be in. But we need to think more pragmatically than just saying feck everything. What happens when you say feck everything and turn the lights out?
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Nobody is saying turn the lights out but how many people will wait in line at Sports Direct for a pair of trainers as they let one in, one out from the store? How much staff would they need? How much stock?
Theres trying to keep the econony going and not yet wakening up to the new reality.
 
arnie_ni said:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1249127908876128259.html

Uk compared to ireland in a tweet
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You can’t really compare in a tweet.

For a start, London alone has almost twice the population of Ireland whilst Ireland is a land mass not far off the size of England. Managing a response in Ireland or any small country is far easier.

Regarding lockdowns, Belgium locked down sooner than anyone in Western Europe and they have twice the deaths per capita as the UK.

Then there’s demographics. For example, in the UK black and Asian communities have been disproportionately affected, this could be because of larger families and multi-generational living conditions which are more common in these communities. Ireland in contrast to the UK has a very small black and Asian population. Ireland also has one of the youngest populations in Europe. Then there are things like the general health of the elderly in different countries, the types of complicating comorbidities they might have and so on. These are just a few ideas I can think of, there will be a plethora more.

That‘s not to say that the UK government hasn’t bodged some things, I agree with the author that the messaging has been poor for one.
 
Regulus Arcturus Black said:
With the infection rate, no-one should be letting it “rip through society”, as yes, carnage it would be.
But it needs to slowly start working through society, slowly slowly catchy monkey.
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Yes, I get it and I’ve already posted that however screwed up the initial herd immunity sound bites may have sounded, they’re actually where we need to be. It’s inevitable.

My complaint isn’t that we will eventually need to come out of lockdown either, of course we will, just how impatient some people are already. Get a grip, we’ve got weeks more of this and I’m viewing it as completely necessary. Whatever sacrifices I may jave

Regulus Arcturus Black said:
Roll of a dice is a much higher chance than dying of this for the vast majority. How old are you? Any underlying conditions?
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It was a figure of speech dude. I meant as yet, no one can predict how each of us will react to the virus, I wasn’t comparing odds.

45, relatively fit but have asthma.
 
Sparky Rhiwabon said:
How would you manage without a job and where the work you're qualified for involves leaving the house? With rent or a mortgage, debt repayments and bills to pay? Let alone food or anything else
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I don’t know. I’ve never been in that situation but if I found myself jobless then I’d have to find a way to cope. Which is why I am continuing working while I can but that does not mean I am placing work above everything else or care about it at all right now. At this moment £’s mean almost nothing in comparison to lives.

Regulus Arcturus Black said:
But what about people who wouldn’t manage? That can’t pay bills, that can’t buy food for themselves or their kids?
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Then I would be one of them very quickly.

I hope it wouldn’t come to this and am continuing working while I can. All I was saying is that I would happily sacrifice everything I own to ensure the safety of my family. I wasn’t disregarding people less fortunate than myself or whatever situations others are coping with.
 
Josep Dowling said:
This is exactly it. Lockdown is not about waiting for a vaccine, which is not going to found. Herd immunity is the only way provided it’s controlled. But to even suggest that strategy seems to make you evil as it’s an acceptance people will die.
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This is wrong. Studies have showed very low levels of antibodies, and also some people have no trace of antibodies whatsoever. We know far too little, but there are signs that immunity might last only for a short period of time. So say you get 80% of the poulation immune before end of july. Then already in july the first people to catch Covid-19 might already no longer be immune and get if for a second time.
Vaccination might be the only solution, if neither works, then this will be among us like a cold that sweeps through the population over and over again.
 
arnie_ni said:
Assuming your talking about population density or similar?
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No mate. The most important data point is:

a. Number of infected in country/city at the time Italy kicked off and Europe realised this was gonna hit us all. So say 5th March.

i. Total number of infected people in Ireland on 5th March.
ii. Total number of infected people in England on 5th March.

without those figures, the comparisons are utterly pointless.
 
Volumiza said:
I hope it wouldn’t come to this and am continuing working while I can. All I was saying is that I would happily sacrifice everything I own to ensure the safety of my family. I wasn’t disregarding people less fortunate than myself or whatever situations others are coping with.
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Absolutely and I understand your stance. But what do you do when money runs out, electricity gets turned off and you’ve no money to feed your kids?
 
More and more patients are being discharged from intensive care in Stockholm, over 80% who receive ICU treatment survive.
Souce: Karolinska Institute

Allt fler patienter skrivs ut från intensivvården i Stockholm – och över 80 procent av de som intensivvårdas överlever. Situationen är betydligt bättre än befarat, säger David Konrad, överläkare på IVA Karolinska universitetssjukhuset.
 
Volumiza said:
At what cost?

Feck work and feck the economy. I’m no kid either but I would happily lose my job and everything I own to keep my family safe.
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That sentiment will be all well and good if the economy doesn't relate to life.

A lockdown for any serious period of time will see to 60% of businesses (optimistic estimate) gone. With a significant number on the dole who will pay the taxes to keep the NHS running? Who will pay the taxes to keep the majority (yes majority) of families who can't find work housed and fed?
 
Regulus Arcturus Black said:
Absolutely and I understand your stance. But what do you do when money runs out, electricity gets turned off and you’ve no money to feed your kids?
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Yeah and what do you do when the kid loses a parent to corona? It works both ways. There’s no right answer in this.

But opening everything at once, I think everyone can agree would be madness. Doing it slowly would be the logical thing. Also still letting people into the country is madness.
 
cyberman said:
Nobody will be allowed to starve now.
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Mmm really? Even before this crisis people were dying thanks to benefit sanctions, that's hardly going to improve if this country economy collapses to the point we're basically third world.
 
massi83 said:
It isn't spot on. Required level for herd immunity is calculated like this: (R0-1)/R0, so if R0 is 3 then 67% infected is needed. But if we can bring R0 down to 1.5, only 33% infected is needed.

We can achieve that with masks (once enough is produced), banning mass gatherings and hand washing, increased testing and contact tracing and other similar activities. And still keep schools, restaurants and bars open and save millions of lives.
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OK, but over what period of time are you calculating getting 22 million people in the UK infected.

So that is approx 120'000 people a day getting infected and likely 1'200 dead every day for 6 months ?
 
Dancfc said:
Mmm really? Even before this crisis people were dying thanks to benefit sanctions, that's hardly going to improve if this country economy collapses to the point we're basically third world.
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Arent you more likely to have a family member at risk of literal death from this disease than starving to death?
We also cant force people to go out and spend money. The economy is fecked anyway. To save a lot of the businesses that are flagged here we will have to ignore social distancing etc and thats never going to happen
 
Dancfc said:
That sentiment will be all well and good if the economy doesn't relate to life.

A lockdown for any serious period of time will see to 60% of businesses (optimistic estimate) gone. With a significant number on the dole who will pay the taxes to keep the NHS running? Who will pay the taxes to keep the majority (yes majority) of families who can't find work housed and fed?
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Pretty much this
The furlough scheme isn't out of the kindness of rishis cold dark heart
It's because if 9 million people were made unemployed in a month with no way to feed their families there would be no social distancing because there would riots in the street, people raiding supermarkets and delivery trucks and probably the army deployed to try and maintain some semblance of order and delay as long as possible the transition into a madmaxian / walking dead type post apocalyptic economy based on who can cut each others throat the quickest

Not sure how anybody's family is safer in that environment
 
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Classical Mechanic said:
Regarding lockdowns, Belgium locked down sooner than anyone in Western Europe and they have twice the deaths per capita as the UK.
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You can't even compare that. Belgium goes probably the furthest of all neighbouring countries when counting deaths. We even count those who are suspected of dying with Covid 19, even though they aren't tested. If I'm correct, countries such as Netherlands don't count people who die in nursing homes or at home, while that is by far the biggest group here in Belgium.
 
Don't Kill Bill said:
OK, but over what period of time are you calculating getting 22 million people in the UK infected.

So that is approx 120'000 people a day getting infected and likely 1'200 dead every day for 6 months ?
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It's better than if it is double more, right. Ideally we will find a sweet spot where R is 0.9-1.2 and economy can be fairly open. Whether that is possible or not, we need more info. That is what lockdowns allow us to do. Get more info and be better prepared with masks, tests and contact tracing and other factors.
 
cyberman said:
Arent you more likely to have a family member at risk of literal death from this disease than starving to death?
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Not if we turn into a poverty stricken society, no.

If the majority of people are unemployed, where the hell will the taxes come to keep all these families fed? Not to mention keep the NHS protected...
 
massi83 said:
It's better than if it is double more, right. Ideally we will find a sweet spot where R is 0.9-1.2 and economy can be fairly open. Whether that is possible or not, we need more info. That is what lockdowns allow us to do. Get more info and be better prepared with masks, tests and contact tracing and other factors.
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Well said. People are getting very hung up on a vaccine as the only intervention, as though nothing else will change while we’re waiting. Flattening the curve isn’t just about short term reductions in mortality. It buys us time to refine and improve our NPIs. Which will save a tonne of lives over the next year or two AND help us get the economy going again in the safest possible way.
 
onemanarmy said:
You can't even compare that. Belgium goes probably the furthest of all neighbouring countries when counting deaths. We even count those who are suspected of dying with Covid 19, even though they aren't tested. If I'm correct, countries such as Netherlands don't count people who die in nursing homes or at home, while that is by far the biggest group here in Belgium.
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Thanks. That just shows how difficult it is to compare countries at this point because there’s a vast vast amount of variables that affect outcomes.
 
Dancfc said:
That sentiment will be all well and good if the economy doesn't relate to life.

A lockdown for any serious period of time will see to 60% of businesses (optimistic estimate) gone. With a significant number on the dole who will pay the taxes to keep the NHS running? Who will pay the taxes to keep the majority (yes majority) of families who can't find work housed and fed?
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Unless you've got any figures (ones that aren't made up by you) to back any of these assertions up i hope people take it as the hyperbolic nonsense that it is.
 
balaks said:
How can you keep the peak below NHS capacity without total lockdown? You can't is the answer. There is no easy or quick way out if this.
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Partial lockdown and other measures. For a long time. Most likely up to 18 months. Like I said.
 
massi83 said:
It's better than if it is double more, right. Ideally we will find a sweet spot where R is 0.9-1.2 and economy can be fairly open. Whether that is possible or not, we need more info. That is what lockdowns allow us to do. Get more info and be better prepared with masks, tests and contact tracing and other factors.
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We are at around 1000 deaths per day. So this is it, where your thinking gets us(I am not saying you are wrong). A lock down that gives us this amount of deaths for the next six months.

That is best case.
 
Heardy said:
Wait, what?? Where did you get a 20% mortality rate from?
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From Worldometer the world is sitting on plus-minus 1.8 million confirmed cases of which plus-minus 110000 have died and 410000 have recovered so looking at the amount that dies is around a 5th of the amount that recovers. So with plus-minus 1.3 million active cases out there that can go either way and based on the numbers that have had an outcome then plus minus a quarter of a million people are at risk of losing their lives.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Of course this is a long-term problem. Equally, you can clearly seer that the Uk strategy in the opening weeks has been poor. Mixed messages galore in the opening weeks with huge gatherings of people taking place when the virus was already spreading like wildfire.

Now, the UK govt might look less inept in the longer term by being more decisive and communicating better than they have done so far. I genuinely hope this is what happens. It’s no reason to shut down criticism of their performance up until now.
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There have been some mixed messages and incompetence, I agree. The government have been on one side of things but I'm not really too fussed about the media campaign.

The actual strategy that''s being espoused by SAGE is far more important, imo. And they're evidently setting out for a marathon, not a sprint. That means following the same plan as everybody else but timing each stage with a view to lasting the course.
 
Josep Dowling said:
This is exactly it. Lockdown is not about waiting for a vaccine, which is not going to found. Herd immunity is the only way provided it’s controlled. But to even suggest that strategy seems to make you evil as it’s an acceptance people will die. It doesn’t matter which way round we do this people are going to die. You protect the most vulnerable as best you can and ensure the NHS can cope with everyone else.

I’ve been working from home for 4 weeks and already starting to lose my mind. I might not have a job in two months time. Many more are already out of work and worrying about paying their bills next or cash flow issues for the self employed who won’t get government assistance until June. The financial mess that people will begin to be in will cause people to have to do something to earn cash simply to eat.
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What makes the decision appear evil in people's eyes is not that it will directly lead to lost lives, but that it's animated by selfish motivations. Most people believe that the economic effects will lead to lost lives too, and tough decisions need to be made. What's driving those decisions is what people are concerned with.
 
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