SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Wibble said:
When I lived in UAE a dry dock failed killing over 120 foreign workers (I knew the head nurse on duty that night who tracked the body count). The papers were told to report 12 deaths and that was all that ever became public.

I'm not saying 1000 (or any specific number) of deaths have occured but governments can often minimise reporting of what happens especially when the dead are poor.
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Yeah, it could happen. That's different to what @Revan was saying though, which is that it may have already happened in several developing countries - a comment that I assume was based on nothing, going by the poor choice of examples of countries. It's easier to cover up one tragic event that killed foreigners who likely had no families/connections in the country. Also it's easier to tinker with the numbers when the disease has already spread in the population as you can just present some totality stat that you could say subsumes the cases/deaths people are witnessing. But you can't convincingly lie about the death toll due to Covid 19 being zero or in single digits while covering up thousands of deaths and tens of thousands of infections.
 
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Prometheus said:
Yeah, it could happen. That's different to what @Revan was saying though, which is that it may have already happened in several developing countries - a comment that I assume was based on nothing, going by the poor choice of examples of countries. It's easier to cover up one tragic event that killed foreigners who likely had no families/connections in the country. Also it's easier to tinker with the numbers when the disease has already spread in the population as you can just present some totality stat that you could say subsumes the cases/deaths people are witnessing. But you can't convincingly lie about the death toll due to Covid 19 being zero or in single digits while covering up thousands of deaths and tens of thousands of infections.
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I think it is highly likely that it is ripping through some developing nations and is being hugely under-reported. Of course if it gets really bad with bodies in the streets, as is already happening in Ecuador, it can't he hidden or meaningfully under-reported.
 
Wibble said:
I think it is highly likely that it is ripping through some developing nations and is being hugely under-reported. Of course if it gets really bad with bodies in the streets, as is already happening in Ecuador, it can't he hidden or meaningfully under-reported.
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That's my point. It would be visible like it's in Ecuador. This illness hospitalises close to 20% of infected people. It's not something that hides well at all. It maybe possible to massage the numbers when they are big, what you guys are suggesting doesn't seem very likely at all.
 
Blackwidow said:
Switzerland is near other hardly hit regions like the Lombardy, the Alsace and thr German South West who although has a lot higher numbers like the German North.

Belgium, the Netherlands - similar story bordering France.

If you e.g. look at Germany, apart from e.g. a nursing home with many deaths in Wolfsburg the harder hit areas are in the West, South West and South!
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I know, I actually wrote in the post you quoted that it’s pointless to compare countries. But people appear desperate to make these utterly unscientific comparisons.
Many in here originally said Sweden would be the next Spain or Italy but now the goalposts have moved and they instead want to compare Sweden v Norway or Denmark but have no answer as to why then Gothenburg is less or similarly affected so far than similar sized cities, Olso & Copenhagen.
It’s easy to take from that, that Stockholm had more infected when it all kicked off, but that’s also completely unscientific, we will never know.
I’ve argued all along since we let it spread uncontrollably through Europe, don’t overwhelm your health system and you’ve done a good job. Keep it from nursing homes and you’ve done incredible job.

Looking at the data, most countries were already massively infected before even Italy locked down. Certain hot spots in each country took the burden of it.
 
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2cents said:
Bad night in Istanbul?

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Istanbul alone accounts for the vast majority of cases in the country. When you allow a single urban area to have a population of 16 million, you're asking for trouble.

The sad thing for them is that this has now distracted them from focusing on an event that experts are predicting and that could actually kill hundreds of thousands (if not millions) with relative ease - an earthquake. Might sound dramatic but they had a small one not so long ago and it set the alarm bells ringing. That city is a disaster waiting to happen.
 
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BeforeKeanetherewasRobson said:
Surprised that if the Government had made some huge mistake, other papers (depending on political slant) like say the Guardian, don't run it too?
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The government have made many huge mistakes, hence the highest daily death toll in Europe. Let's see when they start talking about some pimped up version of herd immunity again.

The names and evidence in that article all ring true against the government's initial bollocks stance. They thoroughly proved their capabilities to act on completely ridiculous assumptions that fit with what they want to hear, don't see what evidence there is that they've suddenly become competent scientists.
 
Prometheus said:
Yeah, it could happen. That's different to what @Revan was saying though, which is that it may have already happened in several developing countries - a comment that I assume was based on nothing, going by the poor choice of examples of countries. It's easier to cover up one tragic event that killed foreigners who likely had no families/connections in the country. Also it's easier to tinker with the numbers when the disease has already spread in the population as you can just present some totality stat that you could say subsumes the cases/deaths people are witnessing. But you can't convincingly lie about the death toll due to Covid 19 being zero or in single digits while covering up thousands of deaths and tens of thousands of infections.
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Prometheus said:
That's my point. It would be visible like it's in Ecuador. This illness hospitalises close to 20% of infected people. It's not something that hides well at all. It maybe possible to massage the numbers when they are big, what you guys are suggesting doesn't seem very likely at all.
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Yep, you’d think the way some of these guys are talking that these countries were under a complete dictatorship and had no access to social media, telephones or internet.
Also appears to be a failure to account for the fact the exposure in these places will be far less (at this point in time) than places like Italy, England and Spain for obvious reasons.
The smaller and more isolated towns in general are seeing far less cases but for some reason the theory is that in these same places in Africa there are thousands of 80 year olds laying dead unaccounted for.
 
Regulus Arcturus Black said:
https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/coronatestar-alla-gravida-pa-forlossningen-sju-procent-smittade

@Pogue Mahone & @massi83 will be interested in this.

Karolinska have tested all women coming into to give birth over the past 2 weeks and 7% were positive. Same again here, the virus only grows well in the lab if taken within first 5 days, so after that time it’s very difficult to get a positive test. (For those with no or mild symptoms).
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Thanks, was in the news here yesterday already. 7% tells us nothing though, as this subset visits hospitals and other places more, so are more likely to get the infection.

But yeah 5 days on average makes sense, if mild cases are detected for only 2-3 days. If mild cases are detected for 5 days and severe cases for up to 2 weeks then 5 days on average is incorrect. They might also over-estimate the amount of asymptomatic people, and therefore under-estimate the time period when it can be detected on average.
 
Prometheus said:
That's my point. It would be visible like it's in Ecuador. This illness hospitalises close to 20% of infected people. It's not something that hides well at all. It maybe possible to massage the numbers when they are big, what you guys are suggesting doesn't seem very likely at all.
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Could just be a case of watch this space with some countries. I hope it isn't but fear it is on its way.
 
massi83 said:
Thanks, was in the news here yesterday already. 7% tells us nothing though, as this subset visits hospitals and other places more, so are more likely to get the infection.
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I don't imagine that maternity areas of hospitals are of a much higher risk than travelling on the Stockholm tube, or is there evidence I'm wrong there? We haven't even allowed any virus of flu like symptoms into the emergency waiting room here in the past month, there are special virus emergency entrances/tents.

Other places likely to have much covid-19? What are those? The mid-wife? Why would that be an increased risk?

massi83 said:
But yeah 5 days on average makes sense, if mild cases are detected for only 2-3 days. If mild cases are detected for 5 days and severe cases for up to 2 weeks then 5 days on average is incorrect. They might also over-estimate the amount of asymptomatic people, and therefore under-estimate the time period when it can be detected on average.
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With all due respect I very much doubt one of most prestigious medical universities in the world (Karolinska) is making any significant under-estimates.
 
Volumiza said:
You know what? I’d almost forgotten about this already. It’s incredible that someone actually thought that was a good idea and a solution to absolutely anything!
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I thought this was debunked? It's something they do every year isn't it, due to the toxicity of the water?
 
Regulus Arcturus Black said:
I don't imagine that maternity areas of hospitals are of a much higher risk than travelling on the Stockholm tube, or is there evidence I'm wrong there? We haven't even allowed any virus of flu like symptoms into the emergency waiting room here in the past month, there are special virus emergency entrances/tents.

Other places likely to have much covid-19? What are those? The mid-wife? Why would that be an increased risk?



With all due respect I very much doubt one of most prestigious medical universities in the world (Karolinska) is making any significant under-estimates.
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With all due respect, you think this small sample of specific subset (7%) is better than a bigger random sample (2.5%). That is only because you want it to be true. It is not how statistics and probabilities work.

You think Swedes are god, I understand that. Everybody makes mistakes here, Germans, Finns, Swedes everybody, it isn't impossible. If you provide me with a link where they break-down how they calculate the 5 days, I can take a look and probably agree with it. But there are so many things we don't know, that mistakes are obviously possible. That is why it is better to have sources from 5-10 countries, not just 1, whether Sweden, Ger, SKorea or elsewhere.
 
massi83 said:
With all due respect, you think this small sample of specific subset (7%) is better than a bigger random sample (2.5%). That is only because you want it to be true. It is not how statistics and probabilities work.
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No no, I don't.

I just passed on the reported info man.

And you should be intelligent enough to know that a test showing 2.5% that finishing a week ago, might actually increase a week later?

massi83 said:
You think Swedes are god, I understand that. Everybody makes mistakes here, Germans, Finns, Swedes everybody, it isn't impossible. If you provide me with a link where they break-down how they calculate the 5 days, I can take a look and probably agree with it. But there are so many things we don't know, that mistakes are obviously possible. That is why it is better to have sources from 5-10 countries, not just 1, whether Sweden, Ger, SKorea or elsewhere.
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And there you go again, I pass on info, you think I'm reporting Sweden as God. It was factual info man, that I neither praised, nor slated Sweden for, what the feck is wrong with you @massi83 ? How can I praise the percentage of infected people, in what World does that even make sense? Stop creating a strawman ffs.

If anything, you have an issue in thinking you can "take a look and agree" with Karolinska Institut? how are you qualified for that massi? What do you work with?
 
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Dancfc said:
Maybe instead of putting dye into the Blue Lagoon resources would be better spend making sure people flying in from New York actually go into quarentine.
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Volumiza said:
You know what? I’d almost forgotten about this already. It’s incredible that someone actually thought that was a good idea and a solution to absolutely anything!
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VintageWhatnots said:
I thought this was debunked? It's something they do every year isn't it, due to the toxicity of the water?
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Completely debunked.
https://www.atlasobscura.com/places/blue-lagoon-of-buxton
Often the case with media 'isn't it incredibly stupid' stories, when you delve into it they're not.
 
Volumiza said:
You know what? I’d almost forgotten about this already. It’s incredible that someone actually thought that was a good idea and a solution to absolutely anything!
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It’s done regularly not just because of this Covid. Been pointed out in this thread
 
Regulus Arcturus Black said:
No no, I don't.

I just passed on the reported info man.

And you should be intelligent enough to know that a test showing 2.5% that finishing 9 days ago, might actually increase 8 days later?



And there you go again, I pass on info, you think I'm reporting Sweden as God. It was factual info man, that I neither praised, nor slated Sweden for, what the feck is wrong with you @massi83 ?

If anything, you have an issue in thinking you can "take a look and agree" with Karolinska Institut? how are you qualified for that massi? What do you work with?
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Good, I was afraid for a sec :)

All of the models are based on assumptions. Many of the numbers are intertwined. If the assumption is that there are more asymptomatic people and this spreads quicker, it affects directly the death rate and so on. Of course they are better than I am. I am interested in comparing their data with other countries data, and then having more data points to come to conclusions. We are all wasting our time here, I am not an expert. But as long as we are here might as well do the analysis properly and for that the asumptions they make in their models are needed in comparing it with other countries findings.

I do appreciate you giving me info from Sweden, thanks for that :)
 
Their official line/spin with regards to PPE is that frontline are not using this “precious resource” appropriately. Unbelievable how due to a servile media that this Tory party will get away scot free despite committing corporate manslaughter
 
Regulus Arcturus Black said:
https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/coronatestar-alla-gravida-pa-forlossningen-sju-procent-smittade

@Pogue Mahone & @massi83 will be interested in this.

Karolinska have tested all women coming into to give birth over the past 2 weeks and 7% were positive. Same again here, the virus only grows well in the lab if taken within first 5 days, so after that time it’s very difficult to get a positive test. (For those with no or mild symptoms).
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320 gravida kvinnor har testats för covid-19 på Karolinska universitetssjukhuset i Solna och Huddinge de senaste två veckorna. 23 av dessa, ungefär sju procent, visade sig vara smittade.

And if you read your article you would have noticed it wasn't done after the random sampling, but in the last 2 weeks
 
Hey guys, I haven't posted on the forum since the football stopped (don't know why exactly) and have limited myself to only visiting this thread and reading mostly depressing updates.

Well I noticed a discussion about developing countries and their ability to cope and thought I would share a few articles that I came across from my country. In reality we are in deep trouble and I am really scared that in a month from now Italy will look like a picnic compared to the disaster that will emerge from Zimbabwe in particular.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.th.../05/covid-19-struck-family-speaks-ordeal/amp/

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.newsday.co.zw/2020/04/covid-19-govt-bungling-exposed/amp/

The long and short of it is that the government is not prepared at all and doesn't really care enough also even if they did they don't have the capacity to invest in a robust response system required to tackle this disease. Food and cash shortages also make social distancing a luxury that the poor can't afford as they have to queue in their thousands for mealie meal, a staple here.

With unemployment of over 90% the economy is heavily informal with many resorting to vending and therefore live from hand to mouth meaning that they can't afford to stay indoors. It's really a case of having to choose between contracting the virus or watching your family starve.

Then comes the issue of around 16% of the population living with HIV and another significant number living with it but without knowing it, some have diabetes and hypertension amongst other high risk preexisting conditions. If ever there was a country and continent completely vulnerable to COVID-19 then it's hard to look past Zimbabwe and Africa.
Edit- meant for this post to be on the Corona Virus thread in the general.
 
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One thing I don't understand with regards to the Sweden discussion which is becoming really tiresome. It makes little sense to me to look at their numbers on a day-to-day basis and then compare them to other countries and draw conclusions from that. I mean, shouldn't it be obvious that Sweden has more infections and more deaths relative to other nations who went into lockdown? If they didn't, then surely all the stricter measures others have taken would be rendered pretty useless. The point is that this must have been a conscious decision by the Swedish government. Keeping the ecomomy alive to be better off when this is all over. You have to factor in the long-term social and economic consequences of shutting down society and all the people who will get sick or even die because of it. Time will tell how Sweden's numbers compare to the rest of Europe in 12-18 months.

Before anyone jumps at me for suggesting governments "let" people die, let me remind you that every government does that all the time. If we really wanted to save every single life we would have be completely locked down, literally. No country has done that. It is always a trade-off. I'm not taking sides here or suggesting that Sweden's way is right and personally I'm rather glad to be living in a country which has gone into (temporary) lockdown but you have to see the big picture.
 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52252470

I think it’s disgraceful that Matt Hancunt was allowed to so obviously deflect onto PL footballers and everyone fell for it hook line and sinker.

When will the UK media start to hold the government properly to account? We make up around 10% of global deaths ffs.
 
massi83 said:
320 gravida kvinnor har testats för covid-19 på Karolinska universitetssjukhuset i Solna och Huddinge de senaste två veckorna. 23 av dessa, ungefär sju procent, visade sig vara smittade.

And if you read your article you would have noticed it wasn't done after the random sampling, but in the last 2 weeks
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Random sampling finished on 3rd April mate. Last 2 weeks finished on 10th or 9th April.
 
massi83 said:
Good, I was afraid for a sec :)

All of the models are based on assumptions. Many of the numbers are intertwined. If the assumption is that there are more asymptomatic people and this spreads quicker, it affects directly the death rate and so on. Of course they are better than I am. I am interested in comparing their data with other countries data, and then having more data points to come to conclusions. We are all wasting our time here, I am not an expert. But as long as we are here might as well do the analysis properly and for that the asumptions they make in their models are needed in comparing it with other countries findings.

I do appreciate you giving me info from Sweden, thanks for that :)
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No worries pal.

As for thinking "Sweden is God", I'm Manc mate, I think Sweden is a cool country but the people are too cold and the lack of pubs and that warmth of people you feel in other places is sorely missed. Of all of the places I've lived, Auckland, Sydney and Chamonix piss on it in most ways. But when having and raising kids, the nordics are the place to be.
 
Pagh Wraith said:
The point is that this must have been a conscious decision by the Swedish government. Keeping the ecomomy alive to be better off when this is all over.
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It's not though, the government don't run the show over here during a pandemic. They allow the myndighet (Health Ministry) to run the show, the government really does have a back seat and take recommendations from the health ministry who state daily how seriously against schools closures amongst other things that they have been.

So if anyone is taking into account the good points you made, it's the ministry of health.

If the ministry of health go to the government and demand lockdown tomorrow, that will happen.

Excellent post by the way, right on the money. Just wanted to make that point.
 
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Deery said:
Surprisingly I’ve been getting less, although I got a text message saying I won £1000 from Argos so happy days.
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Me likewise.

Though my teenage daughter has been promised refunds by the “City Council” and Inland Revenue if she only provides them with her bank details. Fortunately she’s as big a sceptic as me.
 
Regulus Arcturus Black said:
https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/coronatestar-alla-gravida-pa-forlossningen-sju-procent-smittade

@Pogue Mahone & @massi83 will be interested in this.

Karolinska have tested all women coming into to give birth over the past 2 weeks and 7% were positive. Same again here, the virus only grows well in the lab if taken within first 5 days, so after that time it’s very difficult to get a positive test. (For those with no or mild symptoms).
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Thanks. So this was PCR test, not serology? 7% of people actively infected, rather than 7% with previous exposure?
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Thanks. So this was PCR test, not serology? 7% of people actively infected, rather than 7% with previous exposure?
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Actively infected again yeah, rather than looking for antibodies.

Of the 23 women that were bearing the virus, a small amount of babies tested positive. None of the babies have shown signs of any effect, they have the virus but no symptoms.

I don't think Sweden or Norway appear happy enough with the antibody tests yet to fully trust them, they talk about more work being done. Although that's just my take on it, so don't quote me.
 
Feed Me said:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52252470

I think it’s disgraceful that Matt Hancunt was allowed to so obviously deflect onto PL footballers and everyone fell for it hook line and sinker.
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19 nhs staff have passed away but the government is already prepping its corporate manslaughter defence by claiming "We don't yet know whether they caught it at work or in the line of their normal lives like so many people".
And people will eat up what he’s said because of media propaganda and lack of challenge.

NHS staff in emails from trust and daily “reminded” of our social media duties in a non-subtle way. An interesting thing would be if these daily briefings were replaced with questions exclusively from medics or NHS staff.
 
Coxy said:
Disgusting that stuff like this isn’t being asked - they are getting a free pass at the moment and when Boris returns he will be treated like a messiah
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Totally agree, nearly a thousand dead and BBC don’t even have it on their front page. Journalists should be ashamed of themselves. No proper scrutiny of the Government’s actions at all.
 
Wolverine said:
19 nhs staff have passed away but the government is already prepping its corporate manslaughter defence by claiming "We don't yet know whether they caught it at work or in the line of their normal lives like so many people".
And people will eat up what he’s said because of media propaganda and lack of challenge.

NHS staff in emails from trust and daily “reminded” of our social media duties in a non-subtle way. An interesting thing would be if these daily briefings were replaced with questions exclusively from medics or NHS staff.
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Great suggestion that would really put the cat amongst the pigeons. I was in hospital recently as my wife gave birth to our second child and the morale amongst staff was okay, but one or two were absolutely scathing about conditions. The press are fecking useless in this country, so it’s going to come down to non mainstream channels creating pressure.
 
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