3 months, not a chance.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
6 days to go from 50k to 100K deaths. Doubling worldwide each 6 days could mean that by the end of the month could be half a million deaths or more
I just found it funny how you specifically mentioned the Stereophonics gig, even though five days earlier basically every football ground in the UK was full to the brim with people. But it was this one specific Stereophonics gig in Cardiff in front of 5,000 that was ‘catastrophic‘.
They took one of my neighbours in an ambulance earlier. Since there are no cars on the road the ambulances are silent. I only noticed the light through the window. In the end they spent ages pressure washing the front of the door and their steps to the vehicle.
UK went into lockdown on 23rd of March
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-51892402
14th of March
"Herd immunity is not part of our action plan, but is a natural by-product of an epidemic. Our aims are to save lives, protect the most vulnerable, and relieve pressure on our NHS," he said. "
Lockdowns
UK was 335 deaths, France was at 342 deaths, Spain ~200. There's 1-2 days in from 200-300.
You could propose a country like UK France Spain lockdown at 5 deaths, 20 deaths, 50 deaths. In the end UK followed what others were doing and there was too much made of headlines.
It is probably much more than that. Large but poor countries like India, Bangladesh or Indonesia and many African countries might have significantly more deaths than officially confirmed.
So the initial 3 week lockdown of the UK will end Monday, can't see any official statement with regards to extending it yet? Why would they leave it so late to announce an extension?
Will be interesting to see the care home deaths for UK
France has 4599 care home deaths and 8958 hospital deaths. France has about 50% of care home deaths of the hospital deaths.
This article has a snapshot of care home deaths and is suggesting in the UK most deaths are in the hospitals as most people in care homes will be taken to hospital. That might not be the case in France and in Spain care homes were shockingly abandoned. France's lower hospital numbers might just be much less people in care homes taken to hospital and died there instead.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52196978
UK might have care home deaths in 4-10% range of hospital deaths but we''ll have to see in the coming weeks and months how this pans out.
Had France taken more perhaps the hospital deaths would be often in the 800-900 range or even 1000-1200+ range as France has had multiple combined 1300-1400 deaths in 24hr figures.
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That maths just blew my mind.
He told people specifically not to visit elderly relatives then drove 40 miles to do just that. Politicians should know better. And the second incident shows utter contempt for ordinary people. You advise everyone to stay put then you stay put rather than head to the country for Easter. Not like he will be meeting constituents F2F. And NHS workers staying somewhere to do their job isn't equivalent as he had no justifiable need to travel.
Similar issues in Australia have resulted in fines and resignation.
https://www.google.com/amp/amp.abc.net.au/article/12141532
It will last much longer than that.
I hope so.
Difficult to strike the right balance between -
A: factual reporting
B: asking the right questions of the right people
C: unnecessarily creating worry/panic with the public.
It really just seems to me that the reporting ethos has taken a different direction.
I think you need to get off your high horse and stop claiming that poorer countries are under reporting deaths.
They are facing the same challenges richer countries do in terms of testing not being available to everyone and shortage of ppe equipment to physicians because richer countries are competing for the same commodities.
If they can't track the death toll, the errors are going to be in proportion to elsewhere and not higher just because they're poor.
Of course they are. Little or no testing and poor data collecting are inevitable and then if medical facilities become overwhelmed it won't get better. So the errors won't be in proportion to developed nations.
Explain then to me how India and Indonesia, who combined have twice the population of EU + US somehow have 100 times less deaths? 2 countries where applying social distancing for a large part of the population is impossible, where on large parts of the countries hygiene is a privilege that the majority cannot apply and whom have weak medical systems.
The police in some areas are starting to grate aswell.
Nothing being done about flights still coming in from at risk areas but walking in the peak district, buying booze (which a lot of people need to get through the day at the best of times let alone now) or sitting down at a distance and the dicks are out.
Maybe instead of putting dye into the Blue Lagoon resources would be better spend making sure people flying in from New York actually go into quarentine.
A lot of people are unprepared to understand this. It took Wuhan near to three months to get unlocked (and it was a more severe lockdown than anything we have seen elsewhere) and they started the lockdown with 400 'official' cases. Most of the European countries started it with thousands of cases (or tens of thousands in the US). It was always going to happen quite longer than three weeks, heck it is more or less guaranteed that it is gonna be extended again.
I will be happy if in June/July we will have some form of normality (when most of people can go back to work, there is some travelling between states, and of course intensive testing). But I don't expect to open again, until the number of new daily cases drops to two digits.
They don't have as much mobility of people abroad like Europe where clusters of people caught the virus from skiing trips or even a connection to Chinese manufacturing that brings people from the infected clusters into their population. They also happened to implement social distancing at an early enough stage.
They also have some semblance of government sponsored health care albeit not something as robust as the Scandinavian nations or the NHS.
You could argue that USA where the majority of the population is uninsured and where health insurance is tied to a full time job that people are losing in record numbers right now could have the same underreporting issues.
At the end of the day testing isn't something they cannot afford, it's just not reliable or available in large enough numbers like elsewhere and given their population density and sheer number of people, the errors are going to be proportionately higher.
Dude, there are regions in these countries that have an extremely high density, cities with 10+ million people.
I thought that India started the lockdown only two weeks ago. And good luck practicing social distancing when 3 generation families live together, and where entire regions have problems with not having water. The standard of hygiene in these countries is much lower than in the Western countries.
So sure that it is gonna be an extreme under-reporting. We had under-reporting in France, where elderly were dying in elderly houses and not being counted, but somehow it is being in high horse to think that on India, or Nigeria or Bangladesh there won't be extreme cases of under-reporting. We saw Lombardy's system being overwhelmed, but God forbid if someone imagines that the same might have happened in Somalia.
The claim that any of those countries might have a better medical system than the US is downright idiotic.
So your assumption is basically that they must be dying because they are poor. You fail to account that they happened to have the foresight to close borders early, implement testing and quarantine at airports and implemented social distancing before the virus took hold there.
Even if all that is true, the number of deaths will still be reported properly and the all cause mortality will spike even if they're not treated and classified as covid 19 deaths.
I don't know about you but I personally don't see mass graves bring reported in South Asia or Africa like they are reporting in New York, Lombardi or Madrid.
Even in Europe. Countries that had been hit hard can't keep up with the living, less with the death. In Spain, if you die but you had not been tested, you are not counted as victim of COVID
But of course I am talking on official numbers. As those countries you mention start to kick off, numbers will be less and less reliable. In a month can be a huge humanitarian disaster with all the developed countries not only not being able to spare resources but competing with them for them. Hope their young population can take the hit
Dude, even if they are not testing or treating at a comparable rate, the all cause mortality and deaths would have spiked if there are indeed people dying. These countries for all their faults aren't communist China or Iran to hide things under the rug.
Sure, the number of deaths is higher than reported in essentially every country. And the more people die, the more the number is gonna be under-reported. And the less developed a country is, the more the number of deaths (and infections) is gonna be under-reported.
The true number of deaths won't be estimated until a few years from now. And it is gonna be very ugly for the less developed countries.
And neither are famous for being very precise in their population statistics. Let's not pretend that an 80 years old dying in a slum in Nairobi somehow is gonna make into the official statistics, when the government doesn't even have a clear idea of the number of people living there.
Cool so the count is off by one 80 year old in Nairobi.
Or 10 thousand for all we know. But to think somehow that not developed countries, where a large part of the population lives in slum and another large part not being much better, where a large part of the population do not have clean water, and where the medical system is almost non-existent are gonna do better than Europe or the US is more wishful thinking than based on reality.
I wonder how the reporting worked well during the ebola crisis then.
Switzerland is near other hardly hit regions like the Lombardy, the Alsace and thr German South West who although has a lot higher numbers like the German North.Can I do that.
Seriously though, there has been so much negative press regarding Sweden, completely ignoring how well we have done compared to say Belgium, Holland, Switzerland. Even fexking Trump is getting in on it, the cheek of the fuxker
But as I said above, even those comparisons are pointless as we’ll never ever know how countries infected rate looked when Italy kicked off.
Could quite easily be that Belgium had 10 times the infected Sweden did on 9th March.
Belgium, the Netherlands - similar story bordering France.
If you e.g. look at Germany, apart from e.g. a nursing home with many deaths in Wolfsburg the harder hit areas are in the West, South West and South!
Ebola was nowhere as infectious as this disease. Easy to report well when you have 1000 ill people than when you might have a hundred thousand.
Even if you go by the numbers you just pulled out of your behind, if there's indeed 100k infections at 1% mortality rate, there would be 1000 people dead of it.
No matter how bumfeck of a country there is, a 1000 deaths don't just go unnoticed.
1000 deaths in a city like Karachi or Nairobi (where the vast majority of them are old) can definitely go un-noticed. Heck, it is quite possible that Western countries have a few thousand covid-19 related deaths more than they think they have.
That's a bit of a stretch, especially considering 1000 deaths would necessarily be accompanied by tens of thousands of sick people. I don't know a lot about Karachi, but there's no way something like that would go unnoticed in Nairobi.
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Wait, you mean people flying in from New York aren't put on quarantine? Why not?! It's the obvious thing to do!
No. My assumption based on sound logic that testing and reporting will be worse in developing nations as it already is.
That may contribute to deaths because yiu won't be able to track cases and identify infection hotspots in a timely manner. However, how fast they lock down and how well social distancing is observed will also be huge factors, as will be the state of medical services.
You only have to look to Ecuador to see how easily things can overwhelm services.
The other big factor in many developing nations is that living density is often very high, particularly for poorer people, and far from everyone has a home to retreat to.
And this is far from the end of this crisis. I fear we will see catastrophic outcomes in some developing nations and also in some developed nations e.g. Sweden. The UK US's responses has not been good and I think they both may oay a massive price.
There are likely over 1000 deaths in UK nursing homes thst are so far unreported.
When I lived in UAE a dry dock failed killing over 120 foreign workers (I knew the head nurse on duty that night who tracked the body count). The papers were told to report 12 deaths and that was all that ever became public.
I'm not saying 1000 (or any specific number) of deaths have occured but governments can often minimise reporting of what happens especially when the dead are poor.
Badly. Foreign NGO's provided most of the near real time data. And governments wanted western help so they were more concerned about publicising the issue than they were about keeping panic to a minimum.
All countries are struggling to make responses proportionate but the UK seems to be doing especially badly. The herd immunity fiasco seems to have set the tone.
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