Easily, yeah, when you take into account the incubation period. Someone may get it and then it takes up to a couple of weeks for them to be ill and pass it to the next person and so on and so on.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
This didn't really tell me much to be honest.Had this been posted? Satellite photo showing air pollution levels in Europe (from February)
What do we compare it to?
@Revan the updated figures for tests in France. On April 5th hospitals labs had done 274409 tests and on April 7th 59398 tests were done in private labs, so at least 333807 tests were done on April 7th. Currently around 20k tests are done in hospitals and 5k-6k in private labs, daily.
But how are they passing it on to the next in quarantine?
Ok, better than before, though I still think that 25k is really low at this stage.
Because they went to live with their families in the south. So they are passing it on in quarantine to people they now live with, for starters.
I think the point is that places that have high air pollution are also the places being hardest hit. So maybe people’s respiratory systems are weaker there.
Right, that makes sense, I suppose. I thought it was one of those pictures showing how little air pollution we have after the outbreak.
I did too at first. Had to stare at it for a while.
Depends how long the test can detect infected people. Let's say it is 14 days. If doubling time in Stockholm in March was around 4 days, it gives us 2^(14/4)=11. So it should be missing only 2.5%/11=0.23% of the cases. Which would mean less than 10% of the 2,5% of the people had had it and recovered so they are not detected in the test. So it doesn't change almost at all.
Edit: I am saying it in a silly way that should be added to the 2.5%, so 2,73% would have had it before or have it during study.
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So can we get back to hating Boris now that he isn't in intensive care?
Probably not. With an exponential increase in the number of cases, you can bet that the vast majority of the infected are infected right now (not infected and then healed). That 2.5% might go to 3% or so, but not much more than that IMO.
That's pretty much what South Korea were doing when everyone was praising them. Now of course that's not the goal but to call it really low is a bit ridiculous.
Good plan
But we already have reasons why northern Italy was hit hard early. The picture needs more context and a legend (and source).
With the increase on infections, also the testing should increase. France now per capita is doing the same as the US (which is blamed for not doing enough testings). Of course much better than the UK, but for example, far worse than Germany (who is trying to increase it from 80k to 200-300k per day).
5 days according to Tegnell today.
We’ll see tomorrow, I suspect it’ll be a lot higher.
Anyone in the test group infected for example between 1st March - approx 20th March would have shown as negative.
But is 5 days today or 3-4 weeks ago? Anyway doesn't change much. If 2.5% is correct (it had confidence levels from 1.4%-4.2%) the "real" total amount is at most 3% as @Revan said
The test isn’t an antibody test, no-one has an approved one yet.
The test can see if any of the test group were bearing the virus when the took the test, and Tegnell said that will likely be a window of 5 days.
Although yeah, I get that you can take from that that 2.5% of Stockholm had the virus during those dates. I get your maths and Revan’s input now.
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But it's not really low, you have been using South Korea has an example every day and now you make that type of claim. I can accept the argument that they need to continue increasing daily tests which is exactly what they are doing but you can't go around claiming that it's really low when it's not, particularly when the country that has been used as a reference didn't test a lot more.
Anyway, it's not the goal, veterinary labs have been given the authorisation to help increase the testing capabilities, the only issue at the moment is that people don't go to labs, something may have to be done about it.
Thought you meant doubling time. 5 days to show it on test can not be correct. People have symptoms a lot longer even in some of the milder cases.
Hmm, maybe on average, if asymptomatic people "recover" in 1-3 days. So if the test really is that bad, it would indeed double it to 5% and bring the death rate down accordingly.
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How are people still getting CV? It should be impossible to get if you follow the guidelines.
40% positive (ish) tests shows they must be missing an absolute shit load of cases. Only testing those with a very high chance of being positive.
In Ireland we’re at around 15-20% positive tests.
EDIT: That would be today’s tests. Looks like you’re 26% overall.
I think it’s a mixture of long incubation period, silent carriers and people not following the guidelines.
It doesn't make the numbers seem better? The delay is deaths is in the systems used to report
You wouldn't naturally associate Northern Italy with heavy industry perhaps? I don't have much to go on but I do know that quite a bit of train manufacturing takes place in that area.
Only passing on what was said in presser:
Anders Tegnell poängterar dock att viruset finns kvar hos personer i omkring fem dagar och att viruset spridits i huvudstaden i över en månads tid.
(Sure you get the above but for the rest).
Anders Tegnell makes the point however that the virus exists in the person for approximately 5 days and that the virus was in the capital for over a month.
Loudest Clap For Our Carers yet!
Loudest Clap For Our Carers yet!
yes - had 3/4 of our street out the front door clapping. Actually quite emotional.
Thanks, well that's good news. So I would revise my death rate to around 0.5%
Not only clapping but fireworks and ships blowing foghorns around my way
Certainly pulls at the heartstrings.
We could just pay them properly.
With 65k confirmed cases, where do we reckon we're at in reality.... 10x that, maybe 20x by now?
Doesn't even scratch the surface in reality
Doesn't even scratch the surface in reality
South African lockdown as just been extend by another 2 weeks (from the original 3 weeks). So we’re in here for 5 weeks in total (for now), until end April.
Average daily increase in cases before lockdown 42% (1,100 cases at lockdown) to 4% daily increase in cases for the past 2 weeks (1,900 or so cases, roughly).
Average daily increase in cases before lockdown 42% (1,100 cases at lockdown) to 4% daily increase in cases for the past 2 weeks (1,900 or so cases, roughly).
A doctor who was a good friend of my uncle and sister (also a doc) died in UK today from covid19, picked up on the front line.
Ironically and tragically, he wrote to PM 3 weeks ago, desperately asking for more PPE
Ironically and tragically, he wrote to PM 3 weeks ago, desperately asking for more PPE
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My whole street was out then clapping and there was quite a few fireworks going off in the distance too.
Cant see gyms opening soon at all, given the heavy breathing and multiple surface touching that goes on in a work out.
A doctor who was a good friend of my uncle and my sister (also a doc) died in UK today from covid19, picked up on the front line.
Ironically and tragically, he wrote to PM 3 weeks after asking for more PPE
His kids have literally been on Sky News just now. 11 year old daughter speaking about him, absolutely heartbreaking