SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

I think a lot of people had "something" over the winter period, not sure if it was this though. We took the baby to the doctor's with a chest infection and was told it was fine, and then again two weeks later when he still had it but we got fobbed off again. Everyone in the house had it so we limited our socialising with others out of paranoia. My work was rife with it and everyone put it down to a dodgy flu.

This might be the problem though as you say because people will think whatever that bug was means they had it already.

Even so, I bet that was a worry for you. It’s never nice seeing your baby poorly but I can imagine your mind was racing this time?
 
Had this been posted? Satellite photo showing air pollution levels in Europe (from February)

italy-smog.png
Why would Northern Italy be giving off the most pollution? I obviously know that it’s been a badly hit area but can’t see the correlatio, unless they’re taking no notice of any curfew?
 
Interestingly and excitingly my company has been enrolled to perform Covid testing. As of soon we will be receiving swabs for testing on our PCR machines.
 
Why would Northern Italy be giving off the most pollution? I obviously know that it’s been a badly hit area but can’t see the correlatio, unless they’re taking no notice of any curfew?

This is from February, before the shutdown. The point is that one of the reasons Northern Italy (and Madrid as you can see in the photo) was so badly hit is the bad air quality. Which makes sense as the virus attacks the respiratory system.
 
Feck knows what they're thinking. Why do people need passports if the country is on lockdown anyway? Cant see people busting to get their passports anyway.

From what I gather, there's political pressure on the senior civil servants from the minister to keep the service running for reasons of optics. Applications have still been coming in (albeit fewer than usual) because people are using lockdown as a chance to do some life-admin so HMPO are sitting on an increasing backlog that is going to cause massive issues when travel opens up again and the world and his wife want to book a holiday. Given a choice between standing up to the minister and endangering their workforce, senior management has unsurprisingly opted for the latter.
 
Interestingly and excitingly my company has been enrolled to perform Covid testing. As of soon we will be receiving swabs for testing on our PCR machines.
So your staff can all test themselves? Nice.
 
Anyone caught out and about without good reason should stop getting any furlough money / benefits. Simple.
A Father from Walsall has been fined £480 after his teenage son was caught flouting lockdown rules four times.

West Midlands Police said the fixed penalty notice could be doubled and reach as much as £960 if the teenager continues to go outside without good reason. The man's son was also reported to have been abusive to police.



Some councils have had to introduce additional measures in an attempt to stop people using parks and open spaces to use outdoor exercise equipment.

Walsall Council say they have had to tackle groups ignoring the government’s guidance regarding social distancing.

They decided to increase fencing around games areas and outdoor gym equipment after Walsall Police reported that they had repeatedly had to move on a number of people using the facilities.
This is what is happening in my home town and we are flying up the tables on cases/100 000. The people around here are so self centred.
 
Also isn’t the Philippines President the guy who wants to stop drug dealers by shooting them? Fairly sure he has a fairly limited range of solutions to problems.

Yes he is the guy. Credit to him he has cleaned up the place a lot as it's a lot safer everywhere now compared to the previous administration.
 
Why would Northern Italy be giving off the most pollution? I obviously know that it’s been a badly hit area but can’t see the correlatio, unless they’re taking no notice of any curfew?

Could just be prevailing winds massing it up against the Alps.
 
I think you misunderstood what I mean. Even now the Chinese are being blamed for this. Even though in my opinion the countries who are getting it so badly got it because of the incompetence of their own politicians .
Now if China opens up Wuhan and it comes back and spread out again USA and UK could declare war on China. A war of some sort and not necessarily military.
That may have to do with the cover up in Dec-mid Jan. Many countries have fecked this right up since Feb, but the CCP did try to cover things up with the help of their CHO puppet Tedros.
 
@Pogue Mahone

Could be worth google translating this: https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/ny-studie-2-5-av-stockholmarna-bar-pa-viruset

But the quick run down. 773 random people tested in Stockholm between 27th March - 3rd April, 2.5% tested positive. This isn't an antibody test of course, so this was people bearing the virus there and then. With the time between now and then that'd give between 5-10% actually bearing the virus.

The health ministry will put this into their model and hopefully tomorrow give us an idea as to how many are likely to have had the virus in the Stockholm region. Watch this space!

Next week they will start a nation wide test.
Good study. Stockholm has around 460 deaths. 100%/2.5%=40 So with everyone infected (everyone will not get it), around 18k deaths. Population 2,3m, equals death rate of around 0.8%. Sounds about right.

Study was done 27.3-3.4. It takes some time to develop symptoms, but average time for death is around 20 days. So many haven't had time to die yet from that time period. Many things influence it in both directions but death rate of 0.4-1.2% seems quite likely from previous info also.
 
Just found out my uncle died this morning. Didn't even know he had it. NHS doctor.
Terrible news mate, so sorry to hear that. Small consolidation i know, but hes a hero and i will clap a little longer tonight for him
 
We will have to wear protection on our faces starting next week, doesn’t have to be a mask - can be a scarf as well (not sure who would wear a scarf in April though). Lockdown is basically extended until 3 May as well. They will have to lift it then as elections are the following week so millions of people will have to go out anyway (you go to jail for up to 3 years if you don’t submit your voting card).
 
Regardless of the morals, the other businesses shouldn't be having to supplement for something which central government should be funding in the first place. It's great you're highlighting what they're not doing, but what should you think they should be doing?

Meh. You can indeed argue that the odus should not be on private commercial organisations, or indeed wealthy individuals, to be responding to a crisis, but the reality is simply that government simply cannot afford it by itself. Its an extreme comparison, but look at the World Wars - companies were enlisted to produce was was required for the national war effort, civilian factories were repurposed into military ones.

As mentioned, the current initiatives to me smell a bit like "PR stunt" rather than "genuine effort to improve the situation". The phone companies could [for instance] offer discounts on line rental for key workers, or offer contract freezes/months free for those who have been made unemployed due to the pandemic. Do they have to? No. Do they stand to gain from it? Not financially, although an argument could be made for reputational value. As someone who worked for Vodafone for 5 years - giving away some free data is largely meaningless and costs the company pretty much nothing.

In the world of 4G and beyond, bandwidth and capacity isnt really an issue any more for network providers, frankly its laughable that data limits still exist in that scope (and speaking from experience, that is mostly so that they can charge extra when people exceed the limit).

Due to the sums of data we consume these days and the way they're packaged up, this gesture wont hit as hard as it might have 18 months ago, for example. Knowing that companies don't like giving something for nothing (if they did, a cash credit on bills would be better as you said), it actually gives some interesting insight in to what the actual cost of data is to telecoms companies.

All that said, the Kevin Bacon EE NHS advert is doing the rounds on TV today and from what I'm hearing the take up has been huge this morning. The Website has gone down a couple of times.

Yeah, as I said above, data limits are an outdated concept now in my view. Back on Edge/GPRS/3G an argument could be made for networks lacking bandwidth capacity, but not anymore. But we digress. Im glad if the offer improves the lives of some NHS workers, but I dont really consider the gesture from EE to be a significant contribution. Still, better than other companies that arent doing anything.
 
We will have to wear protection on our faces starting next week, doesn’t have to be a mask - can be a scarf as well (not sure who would wear a scarf in April though). Lockdown is basically extended until 3 May as well. They will have to lift it then as elections are the following week so millions of people will have to go out anyway (you go to jail for up to 3 years if you don’t submit your voting card).
Glad you guys have come to your senses and ignoring Tedros.
 
Good study. Stockholm has around 460 deaths. 100%/2.5%=40 So with everyone infected (everyone will not get it), around 18k deaths. Population 2,3m, equals death rate of around 0.8%. Sounds about right.

Study was done 27.3-3.4. It takes some time to develop symptoms, but average time for death is around 20 days. So many haven't had time to die yet from that time period. Many things influence it in both directions but death rate of 0.4-1.2% seems quite likely from previous info also.

Most numbers won't tell the whole picture.

Covid patients in poor country will be most likely to die, compared to patients in richer country. Perhaps poor and rich is a wrong word, but you get the gist. If a person got covid in a place where their NHS is already overwhelmed the death number would be exponentially higher, thus skewing whatever mortality rate they have.

Let's assume Whole hospital have 100 beds.

100 beds vs. 100 Patients = low death rate
100 beds vs. 200 patients = 100 death rate?
100 beds vs. 300 patients = 200 death rate?
In an ideal world, a patient diagnosed with Covid receiving a 1 on 1 proper medical treatment would have a much higher survival rate. But the same patient, same virus, same everything on a 1 on 100 care would probably have a slimmer chance.

Each country NHS maximum capacity is the Dam that must not be broken.
 
Yes he is the guy. Credit to him he has cleaned up the place a lot as it's a lot safer everywhere now compared to the previous administration.
The extremist in people is finally coming out of hiding. :D He is also the same guy that hates the gay people and generally mocks Europe for being so liberal and weak.

I guess the liberal ideology is taking a big hit after this crisis?
 
I didn't quite get the math there @massi83?

Can you dumb it down?
1/40 is infected (2.5%). Deaths now in Stockholm 460. If everybody gets it: 40*460= 18.400 deaths in Stockholm. Population of Stockholm 2.3m. 18.400/2.300.000=0.8%

Deaths we see today (9.4.) are from infections taking place 2-5 weeks ago. So earlier than this study was made. So this would under-estimate the death rate. But so many things affect it (demograpichs of tested/infected/dead, who had it before the test but recovered, and so on) that it isn't a final figure, but in the same ball park we knew from elsewhere.
 
I asked this a week ago and didn't get a good answer, but why the feck are Italy, 1 month after a national quarantine, still getting 4,204 new cases in a day?

What's the reason for this?

Rumour is that word got out that they were locking down the north a day or two before it happened. A bunch of people then left their homes up north and went to stay with their families in the south of Italy. This is probably why.
 
Most numbers won't tell the whole picture.

Covid patients in poor country will be most likely to die, compared to patients in richer country. Perhaps poor and rich is a wrong word, but you get the gist. If a person got covid in a place where their NHS is already overwhelmed the death number would be exponentially higher, thus skewing whatever mortality rate they have.

Let's assume Whole hospital have 100 beds.

100 beds vs. 100 Patients = low death rate
100 beds vs. 200 patients = 100 death rate?
100 beds vs. 300 patients = 200 death rate?
In an ideal world, a patient diagnosed with Covid receiving a 1 on 1 proper medical treatment would have a much higher survival rate. But the same patient, same virus, same everything on a 1 on 100 care would probably have a slimmer chance.

Each country NHS maximum capacity is the Dam that must not be broken.
Of course. Depends from country to country and from region to region with-in countries for multiple of reasons. Still a useful data point.
 
Sorry to hear that.
My condolences. My brother in law is a consultant in the NHS and I try to text to him everyday too. He said it's a war and he never expects to come home unscathed. He said he is resigned to whatever may happen. His job is to save lives he said as is what everyone else is doing. He is worried that NHS staff is only tested if they show symptoms but he has so many positive cases under his care. His colleague is already down and in quarantine. The heroes are the health workers yet the politicians and pundits will take the credit.
Sorry to hear that. May he RIP
Very sorry to hear that.
Sorry to here that. My condolences to you and your family.
Terrible news mate, so sorry to hear that. Small consolidation i know, but hes a hero and i will clap a little longer tonight for him
That’s dreadful news. I’m sorry.
Thanks guys. The risk these people take.
 
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This is from February, before the shutdown. The point is that one of the reasons Northern Italy (and Madrid as you can see in the photo) was so badly hit is the bad air quality. Which makes sense as the virus attacks the respiratory system.

Correlation and causation, etc: how would you know from that picture whether it's because of bad air, or whether it's population density that's causing both bad air quality and rapid spread?
 
Rumour is that word got out that they were locking down the north a day or two before it happened. A bunch of people then left their homes up north and went to stay with their families in the south of Italy. This is probably why.

Even then, should it still be spreading so much so late into a full quarantine? If everyone fled South on the 8th March?
 
1/40 is infected (2.5%). Deaths now in Stockholm 460. If everybody gets it: 40*460= 18.400 deaths in Stockholm. Population of Stockholm 2.3m. 18.400/2.300.000=0.8%

Cheers, but 2.5% random people were infected right there and then, so likely the percentage who "have" been infected was much much higher right? Even a fair amount the 97.5% of negative people in the study may have had the virus, just weren't bearing it then.

That's what hopefully tomorrow will tell us once they've put that into the model.