SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

It all seems better than the US's way to deal with, stick head firmly in the sand and pray that thing away.
My sense is that the administration is withholding news and muffling the CDC so as not to cause a panic. There's no way there are only a hundred + cases here.
 
Breaking: Barcelona footballer Luis Suarez has Corona

https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/51725906

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A question from an uninformed, by why is Northern Italy been such a hot spot of coronavirus cases? What's the connection with Wuhan?
 
A question from an uninformed, by why is Northern Italy been such a hot spot of coronavirus cases? What's the connection with Wuhan?
We have a huge population of Chinese immigrants in northern Italy. Not sure if that's relevant but I don't see any other links.
 
A question from an uninformed, by why is Northern Italy been such a hot spot of coronavirus cases? What's the connection with Wuhan?
I'm also uninformed to the reason why northern Italy is suffering, my guess would be perhaps the import of cloth and leather for Italy's garment manufacturing sector... Or I could be totally wrong
 
I'm also uninformed to the reason why northern Italy is suffering, my guess would be perhaps the import of cloth and leather for Italy's garment manufacturing sector... Or I could be totally wrong

The virus barely survives outside a living organism. I doubt it's that.
 
A question from an uninformed, by why is Northern Italy been such a hot spot of coronavirus cases? What's the connection with Wuhan?
Probably been one or more super spreaders getting around without symptoms for weeks before the news of it broke.
 
A question from an uninformed, by why is Northern Italy been such a hot spot of coronavirus cases? What's the connection with Wuhan?

probably a few super spreader tourists , but many countries should have similar numbers if they tested . italy testet 20k people , usa 500 . Thailand has 4000 k new 'viral pneumonia cases ' , turkey does not test etc
 
I fecking hate suarez but I immediately felt so sad for him. You should not be making these jokes :(

It's just like the flu for a fit and healthy person so you shouldn't have felt that sorry for him.
 
A question from an uninformed, by why is Northern Italy been such a hot spot of coronavirus cases? What's the connection with Wuhan?

Nobody knows. It was the first EU country to ban flights from China and had the strictest controls, but still the first patient has not been found. Scientists have kind of reverse engineered the virus and think it first arrived mid-end January, so it was spreading undetected for at least 2 or 3 weeks. It first appeared in a pretty random town where tourists would be unlikely to go.
 
What's the difference between this and a bad flu? Every year we get a flu bug flying around and folks are recommended to get their flu vaccine (which is based on the most virulent flu strain in Australia during their winter months). I get that it's a new strain and therefore remains an unknown and slightly scary...but i read that 85% get mild symptoms with only around 4-5% requiring hospital treatment.

The infected:death ratio does not seem particularly panic worthy. It seems to be the usual suspects at most risk: elderly, very young, immunocompromised, those with significant co-morbidities, those without access to adequate health establishments/information. These are the same groups at risk from an annual flu.

I guess a lot of the numbers coming out of China are very unreliable, but willing to learn more about it. Sorry if I come across as too blasé.
 
It seems to be the usual suspects at most risk: elderly, very young, immunocompromised, those with significant co-morbidities, those without access to adequate health establishments/information.

Apparently the ‘very young’ are barely affected at all. No deaths reported of anyone under the age of ten, worldwide.
 
What's the difference between this and a bad flu? Every year we get a flu bug flying around and folks are recommended to get their flu vaccine (which is based on the most virulent flu strain in Australia during their winter months). I get that it's a new strain and therefore remains an unknown and slightly scary...but i read that 85% get mild symptoms with only around 4-5% requiring hospital treatment.

The infected:death ratio does not seem particularly panic worthy. It seems to be the usual suspects at most risk: elderly, very young, immunocompromised, those with significant co-morbidities, those without access to adequate health establishments/information. These are the same groups at risk from an annual flu.

I guess a lot of the numbers coming out of China are very unreliable, but willing to learn more about it. Sorry if I come across as too blasé.

Just googled it:

Claim: ‘It is no more dangerous than winter flu’
Many individuals who get coronavirus will experience nothing worse than seasonal flu symptoms, but the overall profile of the disease, including its mortality rate, looks more serious. At the start of an outbreak the apparent mortality rate can be an overestimate if a lot of mild cases are being missed. But this week, a WHO expert suggested that this has not been the case with Covid-19. Bruce Aylward, who led an international mission to China to learn about the virus and the country’s response, said the evidence did not suggest that we were only seeing the tip of the iceberg. If borne out by further testing, this could mean that current estimates of a roughly 1% fatality rate are accurate. This would make Covid-19 about 10 times more deadly than seasonal flu, which is estimated to kill between 290,000 and 650,000 people a year globally.
 
Just googled it:

Claim: ‘It is no more dangerous than winter flu’
Many individuals who get coronavirus will experience nothing worse than seasonal flu symptoms, but the overall profile of the disease, including its mortality rate, looks more serious. At the start of an outbreak the apparent mortality rate can be an overestimate if a lot of mild cases are being missed. But this week, a WHO expert suggested that this has not been the case with Covid-19. Bruce Aylward, who led an international mission to China to learn about the virus and the country’s response, said the evidence did not suggest that we were only seeing the tip of the iceberg. If borne out by further testing, this could mean that current estimates of a roughly 1% fatality rate are accurate. This would make Covid-19 about 10 times more deadly than seasonal flu, which is estimated to kill between 290,000 and 650,000 people a year globally.
I see, thank you. However, the 290,000 - 650,000 numbers quoted I'm sure wouldn't be from one strain of flu, which, mixed with the use of relative risk (I think that's what it's called) in this piece makes it seem scarier.
 
I'm struggling to get too worked up about this at the moment tbh, but in my ignorance would I be right in thinking that this current mania is all about buying time until a vaccine is developed, at which time the most vulnerable will be the first to receive it, and thereafter the mortality rate will fall in line with the more common flu outbreaks.
 
I'm struggling to get too worked up about this at the moment tbh, but in my ignorance would I be right in thinking that this current mania is all about buying time until a vaccine is developed, at which time the most vulnerable will be the first to receive it, and thereafter the mortality rate will fall in line with the more common flu outbreaks.
First to receive it will be health workers, then the most vulnerable I believe.
 
I'm struggling to get too worked up about this at the moment tbh, but in my ignorance would I be right in thinking that this current mania is all about buying time until a vaccine is developed, at which time the most vulnerable will be the first to receive it, and thereafter the mortality rate will fall in line with the more common flu outbreaks.
Maybe. We don't yet know if a vaccine is possible without making future outbreaks far more deadly due to antibody dependent enhancement. https://www.biocentury.com/article/...s-stimulating-global-scientific-collaboration
 
And anyone who's immuno-suppressed. More people than you think, really.
Yeah I’m one of those and on strong immunosuppressants too so my concerns are elevated. I was supposed to fly back to Florida in a couple weeks but have made the decision to drive back from Colorado.
 
Yeah I’m one of those and on strong immunosuppressants too so my concerns are elevated. I was supposed to fly back to Florida in a couple weeks but have made the decision to drive back from Colorado.
Agree, a lot of people don't realise that it even folks with nasty arthritis on methotrexate are at considerable risk of infections. Diabetics too.
 
Apparently the ‘very young’ are barely affected at all. No deaths reported of anyone under the age of ten, worldwide.

This is what surprises me and makes me just shrug my shoulders at this thing. No reports I can see of young kids getting it. The known carriers of colds and bugs which always result in "my kid got sick at school and it spread at home".
 
The US National Institute of Allergies and Infectious Diseases (part of the NIH) has been working the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations to fast track several vaccine candidates. Part of the supplemental budget request to Congress is for additional resources to support the development of vaccines and antiviral drugs.

That all said, I would not expect a vaccine this season and, probably, not before next year sometime. Most vaccine candidates take years to get through clinical trials and most, if not all, of these COVID-19 vaccine candidates have not even entered phase I clinical trials.

In the 2013-2015 West Africa Ebola outbreak, there was a rush of pharma companies working to develop vaccines for that virus, taking advantage of the fact that there were already several candidates for ebola that had already been through phase II clinical trials (testing safety and preliminary effectives). Even that vaccine did not get all the way through the develpment process until the DRC outbreak of Ebola in 2018.

For the foreseeable future, it will be our healthcare systems and shoe leather public health measures that get us through COVID-19, not waiting for a miracle medical intervention like a vaccine.

Thomas Bollyky, director of the global health program at the Council on Foreign Relations
 
This is what surprises me and makes me just shrug my shoulders at this thing. No reports I can see of young kids getting it. The known carriers of colds and bugs which always result in "my kid got sick at school and it spread at home".

Not sure that kids aren’t getting it, more that it just doesn’t affect them much if at all. I don’t know what this means in terms of their potential to contribute to the spread of the virus.
 
Apparently the ‘very young’ are barely affected at all. No deaths reported of anyone under the age of ten, worldwide.
If you look at the comorbidity stats, heart disease appears quite highly.

I reckon the disease kills by putting a strain on the heart. For those with existing heart problems, it's a killer. For those over 50 but without a history of heart disease, it could be what finally tips them over the edge. For those with undiagnosed conditions, it exacerbates a problem they never knew they had.

For little kids with strong hearts, it barely touches the sides.
 
This is what surprises me and makes me just shrug my shoulders at this thing. No reports I can see of young kids getting it. The known carriers of colds and bugs which always result in "my kid got sick at school and it spread at home".

It seems to be puzzling the experts also, which is another reason we should probably take the virus seriously until we understand it fully.
 
The US National Institute of Allergies and Infectious Diseases (part of the NIH) has been working the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations to fast track several vaccine candidates. Part of the supplemental budget request to Congress is for additional resources to support the development of vaccines and antiviral drugs.

That all said, I would not expect a vaccine this season and, probably, not before next year sometime. Most vaccine candidates take years to get through clinical trials and most, if not all, of these COVID-19 vaccine candidates have not even entered phase I clinical trials.

In the 2013-2015 West Africa Ebola outbreak, there was a rush of pharma companies working to develop vaccines for that virus, taking advantage of the fact that there were already several candidates for ebola that had already been through phase II clinical trials (testing safety and preliminary effectives). Even that vaccine did not get all the way through the develpment process until the DRC outbreak of Ebola in 2018.

For the foreseeable future, it will be our healthcare systems and shoe leather public health measures that get us through COVID-19, not waiting for a miracle medical intervention like a vaccine.

Thomas Bollyky, director of the global health program at the Council on Foreign Relations

Does NIH actually have any vaccines in the works or are they just a sponsor? I saw they are sponsoring a trial for the anti-viral remdesivir, developed by Gilead. It would be unusual for NIH to develop completely new drugs. If they discover something they would likely hand it off to pharma.