One of my mates works for a huge, successful Global brand and he said the 30+ stores in the UK were 30% down for footfall vs last year just yesterday. Think it's already having a big impact on trade.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
This is the band aid example. Close school but let people travel and screen out only those with symptoms.
We are led by a fecking idiot
As are we.
Thought as much. I'll tell him he will be swiftly taken to Guantanamo Bay.
A lot of that will be down to the weather too, we had some pretty nice sunshine this time last year, whereas we've been battered with storm after storm so far this year
I was planning to go to three conferences and one of them in Helsinki is likely to be cancelled, the second one in Berlin, we are not yet sure and the third one is in Florence. So looks like no unpaid travel for me just when I have accumulated enough travel grants to pay for it.
Seems strange we aren't locking things down now. We know the virus is spreading, better do what we can to stop the spread now rather than in a week or two, just because it's more visible.
Honestly, I suggested completely isolating China when this broke out. We didn't then, so why would we now isolate ourselves from the rest of the world. If you're smart, you'd limit travel. As said before, we have to work together to eliminate its impact. Or at least delay until warm weather arrives.
where do you lock down with 51 confirmed cases spread out through the United Kingdom which is roughly 0.00007% of the population, it’s impossible.
My opinion is just that, an opinion. I can't imagine how hard it must be for politicians right now. They have to make the actual decisions. And all this is new. No one knows exactly what those decisions are. We are working with numbers, probabilities.
Every major gathering should just stop period, until proven otherwise that it's safe. Look at South Korea FFS. A few days ago 60% of the infected (in the hundreds) all came from the same religious gatgering. The less important the gathering, the more urgebt it is that it stops.
As for transportation I think that's perhaps going too far, it's far too structural for society. But we should be on a mindset that only people that need to use it should use it, and with precautions. Hands, hands, hands.
Look at the numbers thing:
1- Is it surprising that the first cases in Portugal happened in Porto? No, it's a major flight hub for low cost companies.
2- Is it surprising that among the first 2 cases one is of a millenial doctor who came from vacations in Italy? No, these guys are instagram whores, they travel 10 times per year to fill their social media.
3- is it reasonable that yesterday hundreds of Porto fans travelled to Azores (where I live), where they intermingled with a few thousand Azorean fans (who are now here in a relatively dense island of just 140.000 people)
This football game may very well be the difference between us here having to deal with escalating number of serious cases 2 weeks from now or 4 weeks from now. These 2 weeks can be precious in saving lives:
- Logistics planning by government
- Knowledge from the immense efforts that scientists all over the world are doing in real time. These chinese doctors aren't just treating people. They are registering every relevant thing about each patient in high quality published reports at the same time. We usually do these things in our "spare" time. Those guys are fecking heroes.
- Springtime may help
- Virus gets weaker over time, almost alwaya happens
I'm absolutely shocked that that football game happened here yesteray. Now magnify that by equally stupid thinga happening all.over the world.
The worst scenarios are scary, but they are probably avoidable. It's at least our responsibility to try as hars as we can...
You start by locking down those areas.
Tl;Dr: The Chinese only made this mistake in Wuhan. For obvious reasons.
The government has considered closing schools but that would mean a lot of parents would have to stay off work as well, on top of those already off because they are ill. That's not just the obvious, doctors and nurses, it's the cleaners, the porters and the lab staff. Not just the police and the firefighters, without underground staff and bus drivers lots more wouldn't even get to work if they wanted to. Food and essential supplies not transported, shops not open, bank systems breaking down. It could be done of course, but it has to be weighed up whether it would do more harm than good.
Close universities yes, postpone sporting events, concerts and the like, but closing schools is more complicated than it first appears.
edit: religious gatherings seem particularly inexcusable as well.
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To be fair, the UK seems to be relatively OK for now. As long as it keeps increasing at a rate of 10-15 per day its manageable. In Italy and South Korea it went through a period where cases were doubling each day into the hundreds and thousands and it became obvious it was out of control. France, Germany and the US all look like they could be on the verge of that.
You lock down masses of people for 1 case here and there over the country, doesn't work in the real world.
How far do you lock down the local neighbourhood the cities they may have visited the trains they got on which carried on miles across the country?
Until a city become a breeding ground then a lockdown won't be enforced that's just the reality.
Only 125 cases in China? Is that true? Incredible effort
And the last paragraph is what I fear and doesn't make any sense to me. You allow it to spread before taking the best possible action?
Yeah, they've done incredibly well outside of Hubei.
Yeah but they've been dealing with it since late December/early January and have only recently decreased the amount of new cases. Hopefully the lower number in Europe means it takes less time to bring down the numbers of new cases. Italy has been dealing with it for 2 weeks and another 2 weeks of restrictions would be disastrous for the economy.
The government has considered closing schools but that would mean a lot of parents would have to stay off work as well, on top of those already off because they are ill. That's not just the obvious, doctors and nurses, it's the cleaners, the porters and the lab staff. Not just the police and the firefighters, without underground staff and bus drivers lots more wouldn't even get to work if they wanted to. Food and essential supplies not transported, shops not open, bank systems breaking down. It could be done of course, but it has to be weighed up whether it would do more harm than good.
Close universities yes, postpone sporting events, concerts and the like, but closing schools is more complicated than it first appears.
edit: religious gatherings seem particularly inexcusable as well.
I don't see why you'd need to shut them completely. Do split attendance or reduce the days to balance the economic impact with minimising social contact. You're not stopping the spread at this point just slowing it down.
The government has considered closing schools but that would mean a lot of parents would have to stay off work as well, on top of those already off because they are ill. That's not just the obvious, doctors and nurses, it's the cleaners, the porters and the lab staff. Not just the police and the firefighters, without underground staff and bus drivers lots more wouldn't even get to work if they wanted to. Food and essential supplies not transported, shops not open, bank systems breaking down. It could be done of course, but it has to be weighed up whether it would do more harm than good.
Close universities yes, postpone sporting events, concerts and the like, but closing schools is more complicated than it first appears.
edit: religious gatherings seem particularly inexcusable as well.
Fair enough. Could always send those home who can be cared for. Kids with a parent or elder sibling at home. Again, reducing the number of people out and about will do wonders.
I think most of China has been dealing with this from late January onwards. They still planned to go forwards with their new years celebrations till things got serious.
It’s spread by droplets that can attach to services and can survive for x number of days. Seems like a obvious one.
My girlfriend works for a small travel company that specializes in European holidays. Italy just so happens to be their main destination that they sell and this is causing all sorts of panic about their business. They've had loads of cancellation requests for Italy and there were some talk that if it gets worse then everyone at the company (including my girlfriend) would have to go on unemployment for a while. People don't even want to interact with Italians at the moment.
Yes. Seems like numbers are real and that should be a lot bigger story in the media than it has been. But bad news always sell better than good news.
https://www.vox.com/2020/3/2/21161067/coronavirus-covid19-china
To my knowledge they are staggering shopping by ways of electronic cards to allow you out of your building a couple of times a week and delivering essentials. Not everyone is descending on the stores
That would still affect the staffing of hospitals and the rest I mentioned, and more. You could ask those that have alternative arrangements to keep their children off I suppose, those with grandparents or non-working friends who might step in. You could try asking all those with non-essential work to stay off, and keep their children off too, but I suspect the list of people that consider their jobs essential is actually quite large. And then a lot of people couldn't or wouldn't do without wages for very long, so that would have to be considered too. It might not be the sort of thing that's usually said, but I think we have to trust the government, advisers and civil service on this, it's just too complicated for individuals to come up with solutions off the top of their heads. Especially me.
Better safe than sorry
Matt Hancock has stated that they will relax the sick leave laws - not sure if this includes sick pay. On that topic, the UK has a digusting average when compared to other EU countries.
True, and it seems like some of the spread started in Italy as well. People coming back from vacations/trips to Italy bringing it back with them.
Isn't it still just in the north of the country though?
I thought I read that there had been a few cases south too. I certainly wouldn’t be vacationing in Italy any time soon
Ps. My colleague from this morning tested negative. Apparently they have probes for the mouth and nose to check for covid. He wouldn't tell me if there were any other probes but was very sheepish.
Anyway, he has a respiratory infection which ironically now makes him more prone to covid.
Anyway, he has a respiratory infection which ironically now makes him more prone to covid.
Was thinking the exact thing. I know bad news sells but we need some positivity and I'm sure good news in this context also sells..
If the few major epicentres get it under control, would be very good.
Isn't it 0.0000007%
Scandinavian Airlines have finally decided to suspend all flights to Northern Italy. About bloody time you’d imagine.
There are cases everywhere now but the vast majority are centred on 3 regions in the North, around Milan, Bologna and Venice.
Portuguese President just sprouted a bunch of naive ridiculous stuff on TV, after spending all morning kissing kids in TV (children seemed more aware than him). Says he will not change his behaviour dramatically.
Idiot leaders is also an epidemic spreading rapidly, not just a UK/US thing.
That's good if true, although doesn't help self employed folk, which is another topic entirely...