Any caftards got it yet?
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
Been in bed since yesterday morning with a fever and sore chest. Not much coughing or that though. Feel a bit brighter today. Almost wish this was covid-19 and I've gotten over it. Worst yet to come it seems.
Ok, so I'm not the panicky type, but looking at the numbers so far it looks like this is going to leave a pretty solid mark on humanity. Not Spanish Flu levels obviously, but still significant.
If you look at the numbers, more than 3% of confirmed cases end up in death. However, these are just confirmed cases so the actual death rate is estimated to be between 1% and 2%. As far as the rate of infection/spread goes, I've seen numbers ranging from 10% to 70%, with 20% to 40% being the most likely outcome.
With the numbers above in mind that means that best case scenario(1% death rate, 10% of the world infected) leads to 7.8 million dead over the next year or so, just from this virus strain. That is pretty damn significant, no? The worst case scenario is almost 110 million dead. Probably higher, seeing as a 70% infected rate would break down a lot of infrastructure.
If you look at the numbers, more than 3% of confirmed cases end up in death. However, these are just confirmed cases so the actual death rate is estimated to be between 1% and 2%. As far as the rate of infection/spread goes, I've seen numbers ranging from 10% to 70%, with 20% to 40% being the most likely outcome.
With the numbers above in mind that means that best case scenario(1% death rate, 10% of the world infected) leads to 7.8 million dead over the next year or so, just from this virus strain. That is pretty damn significant, no? The worst case scenario is almost 110 million dead. Probably higher, seeing as a 70% infected rate would break down a lot of infrastructure.
@Arruda Spoke to my colleague. Says the situation in Shanghai was always calm. There were only about 300 infections with 70 still in the hospital. People have been returning to work but social activities have been largely non-existant.
Like I've said time and time again, if we went into (even part) isolation now, we'd stop this virus before it could get any worse. We won't and its really stupid. Only Wuhan in China seems to be massively affected - the rest quarantined in good time and managed to control the virus. Quite clearly mass lockdowns are the ONLY way to effectively stop this infection.
Like I've said time and time again, if we went into (even part) isolation now, we'd stop this virus before it could get any worse. We won't and its really stupid. Only Wuhan in China seems to be massively affected - the rest quarantined in good time and managed to control the virus. Quite clearly mass lockdowns are the ONLY way to effectively stop this infection.
Just as a general point, if you're a religious person it has a place in every aspect of your life. If you happen to be a politician who's a religious person, you're going to pray for help in making the right decisions at a time like this. It doesn't mean you're going to disregard science.
Nah. I really don't think this is the killer virus its made out to be. South Korea has handled this brilliantly thus far and they're displaying a 0.56% mortality rate.
Handled what brilliantly? They've got over 5000 cases!
Racist thugs assault Singaporean in London because they thought he had corona virus
I don't understand why you'd punch someone with the virus and end up giving it to yourself. Racists really are some of the stupidest people in society.
I don't understand why you'd punch someone with the virus and end up giving it to yourself. Racists really are some of the stupidest people in society.
That's hardly their fault. Being so close China would mean a lot of travel between both countries and I imagine by the time Wuhan was going through its crisis, nearby countries had already developed undetected cases - South Korea included. They've upped their game and have tested thousands upon thousands (for free), and I'm betting they've identified most cases as quickly as possible. They've placed most of the country in isolation as well.
Those numbers make a few assumptions:
1. It's allowed to circulate freely without any containment measures.
2. It survives the summer unhindered, which almost all coronaviruses fail to do.
3. No vaccination or treatment plan is known - a lot of those deaths were early on when nobody knew what they were dealing with. As time goes by treatment will improve.
I think we'll end up with about double what we have today.
Am I crazy in thinking that 80,000 confirmed cases in China isn't even a lot? Its been around for 3 months (almost).
I'd agree if the majority of the people in that picture assumed their god would stop mass killings rather than them actually doing it.
Fixed.
It's not a huge amount but consider the measures they put in place to keep it that low. We in the West will not be able to do that.
That's fair enough for an individual, but It's unlikely that every single one of them are religious, or religious in the same way. I'm guessing the leader has started a 'let us pray' thing, and because he's the leader the rest are obliged to sit through it. It's simply wrong to impose that on the whole group, if some want to pray they should do it in private and not impose it on everyone else.
Alternatively, we know its coming unlike most of China.
Am I being ridiculous?
A colleague of mine is planning on travelling throughout Japan, he leaves in a week or so. A few of us have raised concerns in our office about this as he plans just to come back to work after his travels.
I am worried as I have a 7 month old baby at home, and don't want to increase any sort of risk that he could catch the virus.
A colleague of mine is planning on travelling throughout Japan, he leaves in a week or so. A few of us have raised concerns in our office about this as he plans just to come back to work after his travels.
I am worried as I have a 7 month old baby at home, and don't want to increase any sort of risk that he could catch the virus.
No, you are not being ridiculous.
People are barely allowed out of their homes most places. It's completely fecked over there so that they can contain it to that level.
Some fecker escaped from my local hospital yesterday because he felt better and was bored of being in isolation. Never mind the taxi driver who took him home and all the other people he might have come into contact with on the way 
did i miss something?
30% seems a tad high for me, but OK, even using those numbers, it's still relatively small scale in comparison to the number of people not dying. i'm not saying people dying isn't a bad thing (of coruse it is), i'm just talking about the escalating panic setting in by people, who by and large, will be perfectly fine. to put it into some perspective, 50m+ people already die every year as it is, that's just a given.
Counter point - yes he is being ridiculous. There's not been a single recorded death of anyone under the age of 10 anywhere in the world.
By all accounts the younger you are the less chance you have of catching it or of the symptoms developing into something serious.
People keep talking about panic but I've yet to witness anything beyond it being a regular topic of conversation. There's more panic at people panicking than anything.
He should work from home for two weeks after he comes back. I wouldn't be 100% comfortable being around him if he immediately comes back even if the risk is limited. And regarding your baby, I can imagine it's worrisome but it doesn't seem to affect children. Belgian minister even said today that reports out of China confirmed that children under the age of 10 do not show symptons if they get the virus or something like that.
Some fecker escaped from my local hospital yesterday because he felt better and was bored of being in isolation. Never mind the taxi driver who took him home and all the other people he might have come into contact with on the way
This should be dealt with as a criminal offense.
Hard to do blanket statements with this, but generally these viruses tend to establish an equillibrium.
These are animal viruses that just adapted to humans. They are temporarily and "accidentaly" more deadly than usual, but tend to become less lethal as they evolve (and adaptive immune systems of the new host population also evolve).
Viruses reproduce very quickly. I think in this case it can be as quick as 30 minutes, a new generation. So a natural evolution process that would take millions of years large animals can take just a few weeks or months in viruses.
Evolution doesn't favour the more deadly strains.
That's very selfish thinking. You will be fine. Your parents and grandparents might not be, and neither will the health systems as they become overwhelmed. Lombardy's health system is very similar to the NHS and is already beginning to creak with just over 1,000 cases. If it continues to escalate the most vulnerable will be hit hard both directly and indirectly.
I was in the North Italy last week and am staying home for two weeks.
One of the guys I was travelling with is being tested as he has a cough.
Thanks @Di Maria's angel
I find so stupid that most of our media focus so little in China and Korea. It's like looking into the future, so much to learn there. I hope governments are actually looking into it and learning from it.
I find so stupid that most of our media focus so little in China and Korea. It's like looking into the future, so much to learn there. I hope governments are actually looking into it and learning from it.
The Corona virus seems comparable to the spanish flu in the case that both will probably kill around 1% of the people catching it.
So the main thing, and imo the reason why gouverments are reacting as they do, is to spread it out over time. People saying the mortality will raise if 30% of the population gets it are probably right, but only if the 30% gets sick att the same time.
China made extreme actions to stop it, that other countries might not be able to/willing to do. But i dont think its needed if we manage to spread it out over time, and then the deathrate will decrease to.
So the main thing, and imo the reason why gouverments are reacting as they do, is to spread it out over time. People saying the mortality will raise if 30% of the population gets it are probably right, but only if the 30% gets sick att the same time.
China made extreme actions to stop it, that other countries might not be able to/willing to do. But i dont think its needed if we manage to spread it out over time, and then the deathrate will decrease to.
Believing the numbers coming out of China is probably a different kind of crazy.
It is, and the taxi driver is suing him for lost earnings as he now can't work for 14 days.
Wouldn’t say you’re being ridiculous with the little one. I’m going out there myself for 3 weeks in April and whilst we have no plans to alter anything (May be taken out of our hands of course), we will definitely be doing a few days after. Obviously by late April you’d hope the weather will have helped a lot but also you’d expect it to be just as common over here as it is in Japan.
I’m self employed so the working from option isn’t as easy for me. But we’ve weighed up the financial risk and know as it’s our honeymoon we’d rather go and then take time off after. If we’re allowed to go by April of course!
People are probably profiteering and it's the Amazon sellers who are setting a high price. I would suspect that some have bought from supermarkets to list on ebay at inflated prices, too.
Am I the only one that’s enjoying the fact that this could be my favourite book come to life?
Captain trips is here.
Captain trips is here.
Looking at the number of dead is an very reductive way of looking at the dead.
Even if you look at just of the number of (potential) dead, it's far greater than what you realize. If 0.5% of people you know die this year from a new cause you will bloody well notice.
I say potential because I still have hopes this takes a turn for the better, but preparing for the worst is the only reasonable option our governments can take.
So, relating to your initial post, of course this isn't more dangerous that climate change. It's just a lot more urgent. Like "every hour counts" urgency.
Boris reveals there is a plan for a mass lockdown if this were to get out of hand. This is issue - why even risk letting it get out of hand? It may never reach the levels of insanity witnessed in Wuham but its possible we could see a situation similar to Italy here in the UK. Why risk it at all?
I hope our containment measures continue to work wonders.
I hope our containment measures continue to work wonders.
I don't disagree with that at all. After all, Jesus said don't make a big public show of praying, but do it in private.
Yup. OK, you don't want to shut down businesses at the moment. But this is 2020, education could easily continue online or not at all for two weeks. Cancel the upcoming easter holidays for feck sakes and just give people time off now.