SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Oooof. There's a huge jump some expected after the lull of Sun/Monday (in comparative terms).

Looks like we're entering the mire. 854 is Spain/Italy peak numbers almost. I can see this continuing for a good few days.
 
To simplify, you are suggesting that we thank China for the opportunity of so much sorrow and hardship?
No absolutely not - I'm just trying to ward against this idea of seeking reparations against China that some are floating. There are aspects of any culture that might make it more likely to develop a particular type of infection. We shouldn't try and blame that culture, just try and prepare as best we can and learn from it.
 
No absolutely not - I'm just trying to ward against this idea of seeking reparations against China that some are floating. There are aspects of any culture that might make it more likely to develop a particular type of infection. We shouldn't try and blame that culture, just try and prepare as best we can and learn from it.
I knew I must have misinterpreted something. I can't help feeling myself that we are constantly held hostage to new viruses coming out of China, responsible for deaths and horrendous debts, businesses failing, people out of work etc. So needless in some sense however there has been deceit involved, cover-up etc that to my mind needs reparations.
 
Why are people so obsessed with ending the lockdown? Do you honestly feel safe when you’re out and about? This won’t change within a month and everything will magically be back to how it was. The virus will still be out there in a months time.
 
Why are people so obsessed with ending the lockdown? Do you honestly feel safe when you’re out and about? This won’t change within a month and everything will magically be back to how it was. The virus will still be out there in a months time.

Yeah - life will not properly get back to normal once we have a working vaccine which realistically could be sometime next year as depressing a thought that is. Things may be relaxed to a degree for a few months over the summer but I still wouldnt feel confident to go out unless I was sure I'd already had the virus (I'd much rather not get it though).
 
This is better data from which to derive England's death curve: https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

It's not as current as worldometer and is specific to England, but it does distribute the deaths according to when they occurred rather than when they were reported.

The distribution of today's deaths can be downloaded from the above site in xls format.

Cliff notes: Only 81 of today's announced deaths occurred yesterday, 451 were from over the weekend, 191 from the previous working week and 35 from before that.
 
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Japan to declare state of emergency over coronavirus

Japan and Sweeden were both being lauded just a few days ago for their success. And yet both now change strategy and are now deeper in crisis.

covid19 is a clever, duplicitous and deceitful bugger and evolving its character and ability as it matures. Who knows how much more sophisticated it will become to evade human defence systems.
 
I think if there is anything positive to come out of all this it is likely to be much more robust systems to be in place throughout the world to ensure that if and when another pandemic hits we are all in a much stronger position to react appropriately re: testing, PPE, etc. and it will hopefully avoid this situation occuring to the same degree.

Yes that's right. From what I understand there was a group of people with most notably Bill Gates who've been warning for pandemics for a couple of years as the biggest realistic threat to our societies. They saw the potential danger but weren't sure whether it would be a natural virus like in this instance, or some lunatics using bioterrorism. If we learn our lessons now we can perhaps raise our awareness and prevent being as vulnerable to that in the future.
 
WFH in every business where it's possible. Only essential trips allowed (work, gas stations, pharmacy, supermarkets). Still allowed to go out for walks / runs / cycling tours with people from your household or one friend (same friend all the time though, sort of a "corona buddy"), keeping in mind social distancing rules. Police are out in big numbers to oversee everything, especially with the sunny weather right now. So not too different from other EU countries I'd say?

It's been more than 3 weeks of "lockdown light" right now though so good that we start to see the results. We also get reminded daily to still follow the rules, even though a decline is starting to show. Government has also made use of celebrities on social media to keep the public informed and engaged, with stuff like #SaveTheSummer and things like that. I genuinely think that it helps, especially to make the younger people adhere to the rules for as long as need be.

Cool. Very similar to rules in Ireland. Encouraging. That #savethesummer hashtag is clever. I’d like us to do something similar.
 
Did yesterdays 400ish include any from the weekend? How does it work?
Is this why Tuesdays are considered to the big spike day of the week?

Its due to the delay in the reporting of deaths from the weekend. Tuesday is when NHS gets the full set of data from every hospital and that includes all the patients who died over the weekend.
 
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Today's reported number of deaths at 854 is obviously terrible.

But if you were to spread the numbers to cover the underreporting on Sunday and Monday, it doesn't look as bad. Here's a graph of running 3 day totals.

3days0dkak.png


I think a graph like this is a more accurate way of looking at things.
 
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Yeah - life will not properly get back to normal once we have a working vaccine which realistically could be sometime next year as depressing a thought that is. Things may be relaxed to a degree for a few months over the summer but I still wouldnt feel confident to go out unless I was sure I'd already had the virus (I'd much rather not get it though).

Unfortunately, I’d say that timeframe is more optimistic than realistic. I don’t think people realise how much work goes into developing a vaccine. 8 to 10 years is the usual timeframe. And that’s without getting into the manufacturing/distribution head-feck of trying to roll it out all across the world in a hurry.
 
Is it too too early to ask Caf people's opinions about whether the lockdown will be eased - or tightened - around Easter (i.e. 12/4/20)?

In the UK? Certainly not getting eased, might get tightened, i.e. shutting parks down.
 
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Today's reported number of deaths at 854 is obviously terrible.

But if you were to spread the numbers to cover the underreporting on Sunday and Monday, it doesn't look as bad. Here's a graph of running 3 day totals.

3dayssikd9.png


I think a graph like this is a more accurate way of looking at things.
Thanks. Anything similar for hospital admissions ?
 
Must be infuriating to have such people in a position of power. The lockdown is doing exactly what it was supposed to do, flattening the curve.

I haven't been paying attention to the Netherlands' numbers but I did think they have a similar lockdown to us - I'm at least certain that the pubs in Eindhoven are closed.

He is, fortunately, in position of no power whatsoever. Just part of parliament but without major voting power in his party. The lunatics who run the country now are not much better but at least they are not as detached from reality.

And indeed, lockdown in Netherlands is actually very similar.
 
That has to be the biggest lesson. One of the reasons S. Korea has done well is due to the lessons learnt from SARS.

Singapore's basis of its current Covid-19 strategy is based on lessons learnt from SARs. First thing is the protection of its healthcare workers (43% of the SARS victims were frontline workers) -- so they stockpiled PPEs ventilators for the past decase.

YOu can read their pandemic playbook: https://www.moh.gov.sg/docs/librari...erim-pandemic-plan-public-ver-_april-2014.pdf

I never heard of social distancing until a month ago -- but it appeared in that document that was written in 2014.
 
I reckon another 3 weeks with same restrictions Steve . It seems im one of the unlucky ones who can work , but all our trade suppliers are closed so we cant get paint and materials. Also unlucky in the respect we are not entitled to government help in the way of grants or 80 % wage etc . Should be able to get by for a few months if needed , my concern is how long it takes for the economy to kick start afterwards.

Do you not count as either employed or self employed? Or do you have a company and take dividends? I think once the lockdown restrictions start to ease in mid/late May, there'll be a boom in demand for things like builders work as it'll have been pent up over the current couple of months. Things like travel will probably see a slower return to normal though
 
Singapore's basis of its current Covid-19 strategy is based on lessons learnt from SARs. First thing is the protection of its healthcare workers (43% of the SARS victims were frontline workers) -- so they stockpiled PPEs ventilators for the past decase.

YOu can read their pandemic playbook: https://www.moh.gov.sg/docs/librari...erim-pandemic-plan-public-ver-_april-2014.pdf

I never heard of social distancing until a month ago -- but it appeared in that document that was written in 2014.

Do you have any idea why Sars covid1 didn't spread more? Wikipedia shows that it has a basic reproduction number of 2 to 4, similar to Covid-19, but it only seems to have affected about 10k people. Though the death rate was higher at 10%.
 
Here's a graph of deaths per day in England once they've been distributed according to the date of death rather than date of reporting (the last 5 days will likely see significant revision):

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That 271 from last Tuesday seems massively out of place.
 
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Or more scarily professing that the government should have impinged on our civil liberties far more aggressively early on by tracking all our phones and locking citizens up who'd been in contact with people who tested positive. Frightening.

You're surprised that people have a different set of priorities to you?
 
Let me give you a counter argument where we should be thanking China. For a Virus to threaten our entire species it would have to become endemic (everyone carrying it) and then mutate some lethal symptoms in a rapid progression that medical communities can't counter in time.

If a virus gets out and starts making people ill / developing a range of symptoms early then there is more chance it can be detected early, people can take precautions to avoid infection and the virus will eventually run out of steam and either be starved of new infections or inadvertently kill all it's hosts before it can infect everyone.

So you could say that by creating a "Hot house" environment China has exposed the corona virus early in it's evolution and brought it to the world's attention, saving us from a potential extinction level event by creating a horrible pandemic early on in the diseases progression.

It's a natural human response to seek blame, particularly when you hear some of the awful stories now coming out, but ultimately it will not help us to prepare for the next one.

We could not have known for sure it was a respiratory based illness, so I've no problem with a shortage of specialist disease specific equipment like ventilators in this case - that is just the luck of the draw. However, whatever the nature of the next pandemic we face, we can be absolutely sure that we need to have massive stockpiles of high level PPE available to protect Medical and Care staff from infected patients, whatever the nature of the infection, whether airborne, waterborne or through blood / fluid transfer.

that’s a plague.inc type thing. If the virus was being carried by everyone then suddenly mutated to become far more deadly, it wouldn’t simultaneously mutate in everyone. It doesn’t have the ability to telepathically get every other virus in different people to simultaneously mutate.
 
Why are people so obsessed with ending the lockdown? Do you honestly feel safe when you’re out and about? This won’t change within a month and everything will magically be back to how it was. The virus will still be out there in a months time.
Because to cut a long story short we will become a third world country if we don't.

I fully expect (and want) it to be extended next week but after that things need to be brought back slowly.
 
Because to cut a long story short we will become a third world country if we don't.

I fully expect (and want) it to be extended next week but after that things need to be brought back slowly.


This. The idea that the world is going to be essentially in lockdown for a year or something is absolute lunacy. Governments will have an indicator of the longest possible time we can go through lockdown before the economy and people's actual livelihood, well-being, sanity and ability to survive life in general become under severe threat. Once we reach that maximum time-frame, there will no be longer lockdowns. The hope will be that the peak has been hit by then and while measures will still be in place, life will have to be allowed to slowly get back to normal.

Nobody is saying the virus is going away - but life isn't going away, either. There has to be, and will be, a compromise. It will mean people still die - but that is inevitable unfortunately. Once governments feel that they have reached a point where they can minimise deaths as much as possible, and relieve pressure as much as possible on health services, normality will slowly but surely resume.
 
This. The idea that the world is going to be essentially in lockdown for a year or something is absolute lunacy. Governments will have an indicator of the longest possible time we can go through lockdown before the economy and people's actual livelihood, well-being, sanity and ability to survive life in general become under severe threat. Once we reach that maximum time-frame, there will no be longer lockdowns. The hope will be that the peak has been hit by then and while measures will still be in place, life will have to be allowed to slowly get back to normal.

Nobody is saying the virus is going away - but life isn't going away, either. There has to be, and will be, a compromise. It will mean people still die - but that is inevitable unfortunately. Once governments feel that they have reached a point where they can minimise deaths as much as possible, and relieve pressure as much as possible on health services, normality will slowly but surely resume.
I think you're making the mistake of just assuming life will go back to the way it was. It won't. This will potentially change everything as we know it. Well overdue as well. The whole concept of life and economies etc has been brought into major question here and I think there could be some huge changes going forward.
 
I think you're making the mistake of just assuming life will go back to the way it was. It won't. This will potentially change everything as we know it. Well overdue as well. The whole concept of life and economies etc has been brought into major question here and I think there could be some huge changes going forward.

Like..?