That has to be the biggest lesson. One of the reasons S. Korea has done well is due to the lessons learnt from SARS.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
That has to be the biggest lesson. One of the reasons S. Korea has done well is due to the lessons learnt from SARS.
One of the potential ways out of this is testing for IgG antibodies which would be a reflection of infection and recovery. The assumption would be that you are immune if you have those and those people can preferentially be allowed to get back to work etc. I read somewhere Germany was looking at that approach.
With big Donald leading from the front.
Why.
Do you believe that we should all just take it on the chin.
Especially the families and loved ones of the many ten's of thousands of those who have had their lives cut short by the virus.
Not to mention the massive economic damage to hundreds of countries and their citizens.
Well that's what interests me because Sweden's take on it is clearly, let it work through the community slowly, taking measures that can be maintained for months on end, if herd immunity or vaccine comes first, who cares, they are then "through to the other side".
It's all about not overwhelming the health service but there's the cold sense of inevitability about this virus being around in Sweden, Europe, The World until that vaccine or until enough herd immunity builds up.
Denmark's plan of action from yesterday seems to want to get to Sweden's level but in a more much refined and gradual way, some schools will be the first to open on 15th May. No doubt the study from University College has helped them to believe that is the correct first stage.
Austria are due to open from next week, starting with small shops, garden centres and DIY stores on 14th April.
If countries can test and trace until a vaccine, so many lives could be saved that I personally didn't think was possible. I thought we were way past those possibilities in Europe.
Yeah Sweden and Norway too, Karolinska I believe think that might have this available in the next couple of weeks.
Taiwan also.
Major right wing politician here was trying to explain how Belgium is a perfect example that lockdowns don't work because Netherlands haven't closed anything and have better numbers. There's so much that is factually wrong with that statement that I couldn't even figure out where to begin answering to that tweet so I just gave up.
Must be infuriating to have such people in a position of power. The lockdown is doing exactly what it was supposed to do, flattening the curve.
I haven't been paying attention to the Netherlands' numbers but I did think they have a similar lockdown to us - I'm at least certain that the pubs in Eindhoven are closed.
You are right, but the qualifier is that the ones that do slip the net don't follow a degree of social distancing. We'll still need to keep bans on mass gatherings, travellings and a degree of general social distancing. Just won't involve keeping people locked up at home. We just don't want those few outliers to spread it to people in mass.
I've mentioned this before but in the west this is possible to do. Germany are planning to increase capacity to 1m tests per week which is about 1.2% of their population every week. Even in the worst case projections of uncontrolled spread, you only have about 20% of the population getting it at the same time. So if you can test 1.2% of your population over the course of a week, you have a good shot as long as there is still a degree of effective social distancing. Then you add in clever systematic testing in schools, offices and environments where you need a large groups of people in - you can nip outbreaks at the start. Then as you keep record of who's already had it, you know you don't need to test them again (well assuming you don't get reinfected - big IF that needs to be explored at the moment).
Is it too too early to ask Caf people's opinions about whether the lockdown will be eased - or tightened - around Easter (i.e. 12/4/20)?
My opinion is it's way too early. The numbers aren't consistent enough yet to say whether we're close to peaking. I think after peak and a week or two of consistent numbers indicating that we've peaked, we'll slowly start easing the restrictions.
Not sure how they're going to do it, but i don't see schools or pubs etc opening this side of summer.
We're due out of lockdown on Monday aren't we?
For me, the governent will announce that we're gonna extend it. Probably by an initial two/three weeks.
I think the plan is/was to review it every three weeks indefinitely wasn't it?
Still, i really can't see us ending it any time soon, not whilst people are still blatantly flouting the rules on exercise and still gathering together.
Neither eased nor tightened, just extended.
Our government have adopted an incremental strategy to keep people from defying for the most part. I am adamant that the plan since lockdown was mooted, was a 2month lockdown (or 8 weeks, rather) and we will indeed get that but it's going to be incrementally to keep people from losing their heads too much. 3 weeks.....will become an additional 3 weeks (and - not in a conspiracy way - Boris' predicament will make that news hit home without much protest) and then at the end of April, I reckon they'll issue a deadline of the second week of May for a slow, steady release of lockdown measures.
Our government have adopted an incremental strategy to keep people from defying for the most part. I am adamant that the plan since lockdown was mooted, was a 2month lockdown (or 8 weeks, rather) and we will indeed get that but it's going to be incrementally to keep people from losing their heads too much. 3 weeks.....will become an additional 3 weeks (and - not in a conspiracy way - Boris' predicament will make that news hit home without much protest) and then at the end of April, I reckon they'll issue a deadline of the second week of May for a slow, steady release of lockdown measures.
Thanks for your views, folks. 
Odds on to stay the same for the next block of 3 weeks.
When it does happen you can bet your tail feathers that the Government will say "please still refrain from mass gatherings" but every beach and park will be mobbed before breakfast time.
How bad do you think the second wave will be? I'm petty certain that there is going to be one, but will it be remotely as bad as it is now?
Not as bad because I'll be down the beaches and parks scaring folk off with my army of pangolins.
It depends on the testing and other issues that we are currently struggling with getting sorted in time. There is the possibility that the second wave could be much worse than the first simply because it's due in winter when the NHS is already stretched to the maximum so the additional strain due to another peak would potentially have a much bigger and therefore worse impact.
My guess is that they’ll start to ease around the start of May but that’ll be school and more essential businesses opening whilst social distancing remains. I’d guess June before we get back to something approaching normalcy and then another shit storm come autumn.
This is likely to continue till June/July at the earliest in my opinion.
Sell you more nudes
I dunno...it'd look a bit ridiculous if the lockdown was eased while the PM is in intensive care.
Well give me your plan for how to make China do what we want and I'll see how I feel about it.
I doubt schools will open in all honesty. Parents will likely avoid sending their children to school whilst there is still the chance that they could get the virus. Thats just my opinion though, before the schools closed, i know of a lot of friends who's children refused to go anyway because they didn't feel safe
This is my opinion on the lockdown as well. It’s allowing the NHS to cope with current patients numbers and getting production of the testing kits sufficient enough to test nations rather than a few thousand people. I highly doubt a cure will be found, and even if they do it would be surprising if they found one in less than 2 years.
Once there is sufficient testing kits anyone who’s had the virus should in theory be able to carry on as normal, and slowly things can go back to normal.
Look at Mr Pangolin with his army of pigeons...or something.
Last edited:
I reckon another 3 weeks with same restrictions Steve . It seems im one of the unlucky ones who can work , but all our trade suppliers are closed so we cant get paint and materials. Also unlucky in the respect we are not entitled to government help in the way of grants or 80 % wage etc . Should be able to get by for a few months if needed , my concern is how long it takes for the economy to kick start afterwards.
I think the lockdown will be lifted for the VE day bank holiday. So 8 May 2020.
But we'll be asked to continue social distancing.
But we'll be asked to continue social distancing.
Let me give you a counter argument where we should be thanking China. For a Virus to threaten our entire species it would have to become endemic (everyone carrying it) and then mutate some lethal symptoms in a rapid progression that medical communities can't counter in time.
If a virus gets out and starts making people ill / developing a range of symptoms early then there is more chance it can be detected early, people can take precautions to avoid infection and the virus will eventually run out of steam and either be starved of new infections or inadvertently kill all it's hosts before it can infect everyone.
So you could say that by creating a "Hot house" environment China has exposed the corona virus early in it's evolution and brought it to the world's attention, saving us from a potential extinction level event by creating a horrible pandemic early on in the diseases progression.
It's a natural human response to seek blame, particularly when you hear some of the awful stories now coming out, but ultimately it will not help us to prepare for the next one.
We could not have known for sure it was a respiratory based illness, so I've no problem with a shortage of specialist disease specific equipment like ventilators in this case - that is just the luck of the draw. However, whatever the nature of the next pandemic we face, we can be absolutely sure that we need to have massive stockpiles of high level PPE available to protect Medical and Care staff from infected patients, whatever the nature of the infection, whether airborne, waterborne or through blood / fluid transfer.
To simplify, you are suggesting that we thank China for the opportunity of so much sorrow and hardship?
I didn’t expect they would be ao careless in the beginning, I mean its Japan...
Probably they have left it too late. I hope they don’t have to pay for it.
Nah, that's mostly the press and Facebook and the like seeking failures out. My town centre is deserted and the park quieter than normal. Police doing a good job of course. Can't speak for London if that's what you mean though.
Figures just released by NHS. 758 deaths in England which includes delayed reporting from the weekend.
Last edited:
854 dead in UK today.