SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Got to be honest I did chuckle at seeing someone post "we're only a few coughs away from Chris Grayling being acting PM." :lol: :wenger:

If you want real inept leadership he's your man.
 
Brwned said:
Why do you think other country's leaders have drawn comparison between this pandemic and WW2?
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I don't know but they are also wrong.

There is no fascist dictator looking at the white cliffs or Dover via binoculars. Lord Haw-Haw isn't broadcasting through our radios. Jack boots will not be goosestepping through our streets and there are no aircraft indiscriminately bombing houses.

The only war is between the virus and our immune system and our immune system is the overwhelming favourite for that fight.
 
FootballHQ said:
Raab is deputy PM currently so he'll get the press conference gig tomorrow at least to continue to introduce him to the wide audience who have no idea who he is (loads probably think he's Cummings given his first name!)

Can't say I'd have much confidence in him although it's a very unique situation. It's ironically something Cameron would probably excel at, getting the message across to stay at home and more decisive measures.
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Is Raab Deputy PM? Didn't know we had one?
 
It's becoming increasingly obvious that no.10 has played down Johnson's illness from the start.

I don't want to speculate too much but the whole 'routine tests' doesn't ring true to me. If Johnson has to go to hospital, instead of the Doctors coming to him.. I suspect his condition maybe more serious than is being revealed. I fear that he maybe one of those previously fit 50 somethings who need prolonged medical care.

I hope I'm wrong and I pray that he's okay.
 
bri2013 said:
Is Raab Deputy PM? Didn't know we had one?
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I don't think we have an official deputy PM, but Raab is 'First Secretary of State' as well as Foreign Sec. Which I assume is Whitehall speak for designated successor.
 
NYAS said:
Thanks but I still don’t quite understand how reproductive ability of a virus is something humans can change (other than immunity). Wouldn’t the coronavirus still have the ability to infect an average of X number of people (by way of how contagious it is) regardless of how many people are in lockdown? How does that get suppressed?
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R0 is the "natural" infection rate. When you flatten the curve with social distancing and lockdowns this is an expression of it's actual rate of infection at a point in time in a specific place and is called R (not R0).
 
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JMack1234 said:
It's becoming increasingly obvious that no.10 has played down Johnson's illness from the start.

I don't want to speculate too much but the whole 'routine tests' doesn't ring true to me. If Johnson has to go to hospital, instead of the Doctors coming to him.. I suspect his condition maybe more serious than is being revealed. I fear that he maybe one of those previously fit 50 somethings who need prolonged medical care.

I hope I'm wrong and I pray that he's okay.
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You're more than likely right...there are rumours he's on a ventilator although that has only appeared in Russian press who obviously would relish putting frightners up U.K.
 
bri2013 said:
Is Raab Deputy PM? Didn't know we had one?
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Raab is not Deputy PM and you’re right we don’t have one right now, but on March 22nd Raab was appointed as the person who would step in if anything happened to the PM, like a designated survivor) This doesn’t mean he’d automatically become PM though. What would likely happen is the cabinet would have to agree on an interim leader, while a new leadership contest took place. The pressure would then be on to agree on one candidate so they could run unopposed in this situation, rather like Leadsom dropped out to let May run unopposed in that leadership contest. The idea being the transition would be as swift and smooth as possible.

I would put my money on Gove but that’s pure speculation.
 
Anustart89 said:
If you're affected to such an extent that you need oxygen or help with nutrition I'd say it's serious (not saying he necessarily does as I know nothing with regards to his actual condition or reason for admission), just like you can have a serious case of the flu and be in need of such therapies.

I'm very worried for anyone contracting this and ending up in the hospital, but I'm obviously biased in the other direction as I work with the most serious cases. We've had about six patients in our Covid ICU (of which two have passed (so far)) and I don't really know how many have been discharged from our hospital after being successfully treated. By the way, by "treated" it's mostly about supplying oxygen one way or another while the body deals with the infection and treating other conditions like bacterial infections alongside it etc. Most other proposed treatments like chloroquine etc have no real evidence supporting their use in Covid patients.

With regards to BoJo's situation, he's quite a bit younger than all the patients that have ended up in our ICU, so I don't think it's a certainty that he'll be as harshly affected just because he might (again, assuming) need oxygen therapy or other treatments. But his deterioration follows along the same timeline that we've seen, ie hospital admission on the tenth day of presenting with symptoms.
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My sister is also a doctor on the front line, and her point to me all along has been if you need a hospital visit, you should be in real trouble, hence Government policy of stay away from GP and only come hospital if seriously seriously ill. And that those admitted to hospital on day 7-10 of illness often require a ventilator.

I think it's quite a bad situation especially as you say that '10 days' is a common time to require hospitalisation.

What % of those who require hospitalisation end up dying? UK and globally?
 
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RUCK4444 said:
Would be awful if anything happened to him, I haven’t been his biggest fan since the Brexit campaign but the last thing we need as a country is to lose its leader right now
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You say that, but as an American...:nervous:

I'm sure Dominic Cummings can keep running the show for you though.
 
sammsky1 said:
My sister is also a doctor on the front line, and her point to me all along has been if you need a hospital visit, you should be in real trouble, hence Government policy of stay away from GP and only come hospital if seriously seriously ill.

As I hypothesised before, PM would only go hospital if serious given:
a) most tests for him could be done by visiting doctor at home
b) the panic/instability it could cause.

I think its quite a bad situation especially as you say that '10 days' is a common time to require hospitalisation.

What % of those who require hospitalisation end up dying? UK and globally?
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Well atm that number is pretty much the same as the death rate, as we're only testing people sick enough to go to a hospital. Though, I don't know if any confirmed cases are being sent home.

I've been following the numbers for Italy, and looking at how slow the recovery rate is I think they've the recovery time has been underestimated. Around 2 weeks ago, Italy were getting about 5-6k cases per day. So you'd think around now the recoveries + deaths would be tending towards that, but the recoveries seem to stay fairly constant around 1k and deaths have stayed around 700 (today dropping off). To me the recovery time has a lower bound of about 3 weeks. So I'm not surprised Johnson is still showing symptoms after being confirmed just a week ago.

Which is again, why the sudden ramp up in chinese recoveries again looks so fictitious.
 
sammsky1 said:
My sister is also a doctor on the front line, and her point to me all along has been if you need a hospital visit, you should be in real trouble, hence Government policy of stay away from GP and only come hospital if seriously seriously ill. And that those admitted to hospital on day 7-10 of illness often require a ventilator.

I think it's quite a bad situation especially as you say that '10 days' is a common time to require hospitalisation.

What % of those who require hospitalisation end up dying? UK and globally?
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Not disagreeing with any of what you've posted there.

Not sure what the latest numbers are, but I've seen about 5-10% of hospitalised patients needing ICU or thereabouts. Can't find a good source for you right no so take it with a pinch of salt.

Early Chinese data had about 60% mortality among those put on mechanical ventilation. Note that some patients will die outside of the ICU for various reasons (futility, dying before ICU, ICU not admitting due to poor prognosis) and not all patients in the ICU will need mechanical ventilation.
 
People should stay away from the news during all this. Obviously check the BBC every so often but if you immerse yourself in social media you’re immersing yourself in a huge pile of bull crap. So much bollocks flying around it’s untrue.
 
That extra £350m a week going to the NHS is gonna be crucial right about now.
 
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Dancfc said:
I totally agree that any death is a tragedy and we should do our utmost to preserve life. This is also not about wanting to go back to the pub or go to the cinema. I could quite easily shelve all those unimportant things.

This is about having a life to lead after this (which in turn will save thousands of lives in itself due to significantly more people being able to feed their kids) 60% of business will fail if this goes on longer than short term. Do you even consider what world that would leave us with?
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One where its clear societies need a social safety net and respect that safety net instead of allowing the rich and powerful to constantly strip it in efforts to profit from privatization and de-regulation.
 
You're supposed to rest when you're ill, trying to run a country can't have done Boris any good.
 
Anustart89 said:
Not disagreeing with any of what you've posted there.

Not sure what the latest numbers are, but I've seen about 5-10% of hospitalised patients needing ICU or thereabouts. Can't find a good source for you right no so take it with a pinch of salt.

Early Chinese data had about 60% mortality among those put on mechanical ventilation. Note that some patients will die outside of the ICU for various reasons (futility, dying before ICU, ICU not admitting due to poor prognosis) and not all patients in the ICU will need mechanical ventilation.
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No idea if this figure still holds but early estimates from China that I saw was 5-7% of those hospitalised needed an ICU bed but others would be in serious condition and would need other things like oxygen.
 
Dancfc said:
This kind of coverage worries me.

While we are getting the odd idiot outliner the vast majority of the country are sticking to the social distancing measures. I have friends all over the country due to my preference for socially active hostels when I travel and I've messaged a vast amount in recent days and not one of them have reported major breaking of the rules, in two weeks of daily walks and to the shop myself the only time I've seen something that could even be passed off as rule breaking was four people at a large skate park.

Not that many people are actually breaking the rules especially in rural areas yet if you listen to the media you'd think half the country is at it, unfortunately too many people rely on the media to form their own opinions which will only drag the narrative that "so many people are taking the piss innit" even further which will probably lead to our daily exercise right stripped.
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Yup, Im still out and about everyday and it’s clear as day at least 90-95% of people are respecting the lockdown. This whole narrative of the selfish British public who can’t stay in a for a few weeks is a nonsense. Like you said though this is what happens when you watch selective videos on twitter and take it as gospel.
 
Pogue Mahone said:


The comments I see below tweets like this one make me think the UK is properly fecked. Completely different attitude here in Ireland, where you’re much more likely to see people go to the opposite extreme. What the feck is wrong with you people? It’s almost as though the whole Brexit thing has made a lot of you wilfully contrary. It’s actually quite depressing. The UK used to be a bastion of sanity and common sense. Not any more.
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Out means Out!
 
Wibble said:
R0 is the "natural" infection rate. When you flatten the curve with social distancing and lockdowns this is an expression of it's actual rate of infection at a point in time in a specific place and is called R (not R0).
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Thanks.
 
Sky1981 said:
Forget china. Look at south korea, japan, singapore. Good government can mitigate the outbreak.

It's not wizardry. Their government instruct, citizen follow, results shows.

Nobody has the magic formula, it's just a collection of small things done right.

Ps: there are reporters all over wuhan, satelite imagery, live tictoc, correspondence from tourist and expats from wuhan, those lockdowns are real. There are various embassy as well. You'd think if the situation is somehow much worse than reported there would be more news from all over the world not only from usa and uk. US has been itching to blame China, it wont be hard for cia to use their satelite and get a hard proof of mass grave of millions bodies lying around. Seriously, what do you think happened in China? Do you honestly think millions died and they open the city today and the rest of the province acts like nothing happened?
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Funny how it works in Hong Kong, terrible governance also mitigates outbreak.

Basically no one trusts the Hong Kong government and therefore everyone started to wear masks and became extra vigilant when the government was trying to play down the treat back in late January.
 
NYAS said:
Thanks.
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The only slightly confusing thing is that R0 has a range due to some places/countries having different climates, social behaviour and density of people etc. However, if you have a vaccine that only changes the R but not the R0
 
So I started showing symptoms a few days ago but put them down to a combination of seasonal allergies and overtraining during the lockdown since I haven't left my home at all in weeks but my cough has been getting progressively worse all day. It's now reaching a point where the only solace I'm finding is during steamy showers, hot baths and parking myself next to a humidifier.

111 have classed it as a mild to moderate case which is reassuring but it still really sucks. I say that as someone who skipped a trip to Cancun to avoid Swine Flu only to contract it after a night out in Dublin and that shit was nothing compared to this.

Thankfully I've done enough hallucinogens in my time to not get too anxious about my potential demise but I don't have a wife or any kids to worry about either so that probably helps.

Basically what I'm trying to say in a roundabout way is please be careful out there lads, lasses and everyone in between because despite seemingly taking every possible precaution to avoid this shite, it still managed to catch me and it really, really sucks. I mean the only reason I'm venturing into this thread is because it's not letting me sleep.
 
@MrPooni I'm sorry to hear that and I wish you a fast recovery.

May I ask where you think you caught it if you haven't left the house for several weeks?
 
17 Van der Gouw said:
@MrPooni I'm sorry to hear that and I wish you a fast recovery.

May I ask where you think you caught it if you haven't left the house for several weeks?
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Only points of contact have been the odd delivery driver/postman and my sister dropping off groceries. I could have sworn I adhered to all the correct protocols before and after said interactions but human memories are notoriously unreliable. Clearly I fecked up somewhere otherwise I wouldn't be in this situation but I'm not going to spend the next few days racking my brain about it either. Plus the past few weeks have been kind of a blur due to the lack of structure which probably doesn't help my case as a model citizen.
 
P.S. Thanks for the morbid targeted ads Caf. Very topical all things considered :lol:

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