SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

This mask stuff is about to do my head in.

I don’t even know if I should be wearing gloves at this point, but if I go get food without either it feels like people will be looking at me like I am a danger to society.
 
Based Adnan said:
My local tescos has made the entire store one way and blocked off certain entrances to aisles. Literally the most stupid thing going as it just forces everyone to go into the same spaces to navigate the store. Also makes doing the shop an absolute ballache and much longer than it should.
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Morrisons have done the same. It serves a purpose though. You can only access the tills via the last isle and they have a bouncer telling you when you can and can't move forward and if you have the correct footwear on. It's not ideal but it does work.
 
Ekkie Thump said:
I'd like this to be true, but it doesn't seem to be I'm afraid, at least not from the report you're citing so hopefully you have other sources. What it does say in that report is that 80% of confirmed cases (100% of whom clearly know they are infected) have mild to moderate disease and that includes those suffering from pneumonia.

Here is the relevant section:
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Yep, unfortunately, it seems that the number of asymptotic cases is much lower than we hoped: https://www.buzzfeednews.com/articl...asymptomatic-silent-carrier-spread-contagious

It seems that it can be anywhere from 20%-80% or so, with some research putting it even lower than 20% https://eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.10.2000180
 
Prometheus said:
It says
Which is what most studies show.

The 80% refers to the proportion of people who happen to have mild to moderate disease.



My second question was regarding the bold bit below...
which reads like you expected less doctors and nurses to infected due to the 80% figure (but it doesn't matter anyway since this isn't true).
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My point was that many of the health workers that might have got it - are not confirmed cases, as they are not tested all the time and might have already build antibodies and recovered.

When you have 80% of the confirmed cases showing mild to moderate symptoms, that most likely means many other health workers are not confirmed and most likely being infected, despite masks and other protective kits - which was the point of the argument.

Those who wear surgical masks don't really offer much protection, which was the point in case. There are examples of full body kits that do offer 100% protection(or lets say 99.99%) and that are already in use in many places.

Anyhow it's a bit deviation of the point of how much common mask help you not to get infected.
 
Enigma_87 said:
My point was that many of the health workers that might have got it - are not confirmed cases, as they are not tested all the time and might have already build antibodies and recovered.

When you have 80% of the confirmed cases showing mild to moderate symptoms, that most likely means many other health workers are not confirmed and most likely being infected, despite masks and other protective kits - which was the point of the argument.

Those who wear surgical masks don't really offer much protection, which was the point in case. There are examples of full body kits that do offer 100% protection(or lets say 99.99%) and that are already in use in many places.

Anyhow it's a bit deviation of the point of how much common mask help you not to get infected.
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But health workers are being isolated for showing mild and moderate symptoms. Mild to moderate diseases means you don't require hospitalisation. You may be misunderstanding this. Anyway, my own mask may not protect me personally from catching it but as @Foxbatt said above and the Korean doctors in the above video are saying, if you're near me and I'm infected then it's going to protect you from catching it from me. Ergo, it works.
 
In the span of 24 hours, Suedesi essentially went from "are we overreacting to the Coronavirus, and do we know it's actually killing people?" to "if you don't use a mask you're basically a murderer, and here are 10 links that agree with me."
 
sammsky1 said:
We are going around in circles and you are also being disingenuous by continually changing the goal posts on what you are advocating.
No-one said it should be mandatory, and I pointed out in a previous post that it's not even law in mask wearing cultures like NE & SE Asia, let alone getting close to that in the west. It's still a personal choice all over the world.
But its also the choice of others to avoid you if you wont wear one: Eg - since covid19 shutdown in Phuket, 7/11 wont allow you in their store if you're not wearing one.
My point to you however is consistent: it's irresponsible to advise people not to wear face masks in this current climate. Unless you have anything new to add, let's leave it there.
PS: I've taken my advice from my 2 sisters: One is a doctor consultant and other is a physio, both currently engaged on NHS frontline right now.
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The argument began when Suedesi said that the mask protects him and the others which I countered of how much it protects you and the others and what can be the side effects if you don't wear it properly or if you don't follow the good practice. Then he numerous time in imperious tone told us to wear it which sounded pretty much like a requirement to me.

On the bolded - it really isn't - as it is compulsory in Austria, Czech Republic and couple of other countries, currently.

I didn't say anywhere don't wear it - I said multiple times why I don't wear it and what kind of side effects it might have if not worn or changed properly, but it's up to the individual to decide for himself, to me every extreme leaves to negative effects.
 
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Prometheus said:
But health workers are being isolated for showing mild and moderate symptoms. Mild to moderate diseases means you don't require hospitalisation. You may be misunderstanding this. Anyway, my own mask may not protect me personally from catching it but as @Foxbatt said above and the Korean doctors in the above video are saying, if you're near me and I'm infected then it's going to protect you from catching it from me. Ergo, it works.
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If you sneeze in the mask and you are infected, that mask still won't stop all virus particles simply because it doesn't have the adequate filter for that and I might still get infected if you are close enough(with or without mask) or in a closed space. This is what I'm saying.

Sick people are required to wear masks, because it limits the amount of particles they let out. However for healthy people it's a different thing as it impedes their breathing and there is a big chance of contaminating the mask by touching it and getting infected without a direct contact. That and building other types of bacteria which will reduce their immune system unrelated to the virus.
 
I don't think anyone expects a simple surgical mask to grant you complete protection or anything like that, but surely the logical premise is that in a community where everybody wears one, it should reduce the community transmission at least a little bit? I mean it's just one other minor layer isn't it? We all know at this point you can be asymptomatic and be spreading the virus, so if it can catch at least some of your droplets it will be doing something of value.

Anyway the simple surgical ones are not so hard to wear and if you chose not to wear one where I am, you'd receive the most admonishing looks, so easiest to just go along with it.

I think it's important to make the distinction between the more hardcore N95's and the simple surgical ones. The N95's should absolutely be reserved for those on the frontline in countries where they are in short supply. Surely the other ones are widely available though right? Or are the shortages in the west much worse than I realised?
 
Ekkie Thump said:
I'd like this to be true, but it doesn't seem to be I'm afraid, at least not from the report you're citing so hopefully you have other sources. What it does say in that report is that 80% of confirmed cases (100% of whom clearly know they are infected) have mild to moderate disease and that includes those suffering from pneumonia.

Here is the relevant section:
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I think I didn't put it correctly in the first place. The big issue with this virus is how contagious it is, how long it stays in the body and also how easy it is to catch it.

When 80% of the confirmed cases show some mild to moderate symptoms I think it's fairly safe to assume that most likely the reported, confirmed cases are a lot lower than the actual numbers of affected people. For example if you already have recovered from the virus your test will be negative and those medical workers that are exposed to it on the frontline on daily basis most likely have all gotten it and large part have recovered from it without being confirmed - as they didn't show symptoms and there is global shortage of tests to do them on daily basis. Anyhow the main topic was how surgical masks protect you and I think we're deviating from it here.
 
Enigma_87 said:
No :) That would mean the efficiency in those cases would be 100%, whilst the highest efficiency shown was 45% and in some cases less than 30%.

RkrR0H9.png


the 33% is the mean of how much particles the filter(mask) stopped in those three cases, but in no case it stopped 100% of the virus.
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So how we also need to know how viral load affects infections rate and severity of
Revan said:
I believe it would have been 100% 'infected' mannequins. Poor mannequins, RIP!

But surely, the viral load on those with masks, and those without masks should have been tested too.
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You would assume but I'd like to be sure.
 
Enigma_87 said:
... as they didn't show symptoms and there is global shortage of tests to do them on daily basis.
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Well, they would show symptoms if they had mild to moderate disease. You're still confusing asymptomatic with symptomatic but not severe.
 
Arruda said:
It boils down to chance of survival, i.e., chance of benefitting from it (and age and preexisting conditions are a major factor in that, albeit not the only ones). In some ICUs mortality is 50%, they can probably lower it with more accurate choices.
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Sucks to be 65 with a pre-existing condition :(
 
Enigma_87 said:
If you sneeze in the mask and you are infected, that mask still won't stop all virus particles simply because it doesn't have the adequate filter for that and I might still get infected if you are close enough(with or without mask) or in a closed space. This is what I'm saying.
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Obviously it's not a full solution, but it reduces the spread of the virus. If I'm wearing one and you're wearing one, or even if just one of us is, then it's much better than both of us wearing none. Moreover, how sick you get from the virus depends on how much of the virus gets in your system initially (aka the viral load), according to studies. So even if it doesn't stop 100% of the particles, a reduction in how much of the virus you start with is quite good.
 
barros said:


This video is from South Korea and they explain why using a mask is important.
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Interesting video, lots of very informative points!

Regarding the masks, the most important take home point for me was that the general public in Korea have access to N95 equivalent masks. In Europe and the USA, there has been a lot of talk of using just home made cloths which isn't the same. He didn't really touch upon this part of the debate about the use of home made masks.

He emphasies the fact these Asian countries also have experience with dealing with outbreaks and a different culture. I think this needs to continually be stressed.

He says early in the video you need a mask for indoors but not really for ourdoors. So it is quite surprising that neither of them are wearing a mask!

Finally, I thought it was odd that he seemed to imply transmission from sneezing/coughing is one mechanism, transmission from indirect contact with surfaces is another and then the third was "aerosol transmission" from breathing. I don't see why you would separate out sneezing/coughing and breathing - the physics are studied in a similar way and are pretty similar except for the initial droplet size and velocity distributions. Again, saying water droplets in air are "light" is incorrect terminolgy. Also saying droplets are anything > 5 micron is incorrect. But this last paragraph is me just being pedantic.
 
Based Adnan said:
My local tescos has made the entire store one way and blocked off certain entrances to aisles. Literally the most stupid thing going as it just forces everyone to go into the same spaces to navigate the store. Also makes doing the shop an absolute ballache and much longer than it should.
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My local Tesco Express did same thing. It's also a petrol station, with the 2 metre queuing rule, the 1 way rule and blocking off half the shop. It made it so much worse.
 
We've just had a 3 minute's silence here, for the Qingming festival (清明节). A day where China remembers it's dead, a tradition going back over 2500 years! This year definitely more poignant than most.

Enigma_87 said:
I think I didn't put it correctly in the first place. The big issue with this virus is how contagious it is, how long it stays in the body and also how easy it is to catch it.

When 80% of the confirmed cases show some mild to moderate symptoms I think it's fairly safe to assume that most likely the reported, confirmed cases are a lot lower than the actual numbers of affected people. For example if you already have recovered from the virus your test will be negative and those medical workers that are exposed to it on the frontline on daily basis most likely have all gotten it and large part have recovered from it without being confirmed - as they didn't show symptoms and there is global shortage of tests to do them on daily basis. Anyhow the main topic was how surgical masks protect you and I think we're deviating from it here.
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It's been a long thread and I've definitely glossed over some of it, so apologies if I'm mistaken, but is that really what the majority of discussion is about? How the masks protect 'you' the wearer? Because I thought the main arguments in favour of masks were more about how masks can help mitigate community spread? At least that is the argument that makes most logical sense to me and is at least one of the main points proponents of mask wearing have put forward here. After all asymptomatic spread is a feature of this virus. I think this difference may lie at the centre of some misunderstandings or disagreements on the topic.
 
justboy68 said:
It's been a long thread and I've definitely glossed over some of it, so apologies if I'm mistaken, but is that really what the majority of discussion is about? How the masks protect 'you' the wearer? Because I thought the main arguments in favour of masks were more about how masks can help mitigate community spread? At least that is the argument that makes most logical sense to me and is at least one of the main points proponents of mask wearing have put forward here. After all asymptomatic spread is a feature of this virus. I think this difference may lie at the centre of some misunderstandings or disagreements on the topic.
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Agreed. With the lack of testing in US, you don't know if you're infected or not. Also, although a non-N95 mask is not 100% filter out the virus when an infected person coughing, but it reduces the amount of virus loaded droplets coming out to the open air.
 
Isotope said:
Also, although a non-N95 mask is not 100% filter out the virus when an infected person coughing, but it reduces the amount of virus loaded droplets coming out to the open air.
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Masks can have one or two purposes:
- Surgical masks can prevent exhaling of droplets back into the atmosphere.
- Respirators e.g. N95 or FPP2/3 masks, can prevent both exhaling of droplets back into the atmosphere and inhalation of droplets.

You can limit the spread of infection by asking the entire population to wear surgical masks, which would capture the droplets as the individual exhales because this is what they were designed to do (see wiki):
A surgical mask, also known as a procedure mask, medical mask or simply as a face mask,[1][2] is intended to be worn by health professionals during surgery and during nursing to catch the bacteria shed in liquid droplets and aerosols from the wearer's mouth and nose.
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Absolutely no one disputes this. The problem in the UK, US and other European countries is that the N95 masks or equivalent as well as the surgical masks are in short supply. So you can't roll them out to the general public - they must be given to health professionals first. Everyone agrees with this point.

You then find yourself in a situation where people are advocating for home made masks, which haven't been tested and no one knows for sure how effective they are in the real world. You could say "well feck it, I'll wear it anyway" which is certainly your right. But there are issues that have been raised in the thread already about using masks for both of the properly designed masks and home made masks. These issues should be recognised by any individual who wishes to wear a mask. They aren't there to say "no", but just serve more as a warning so you don't suddenly have a false sense of security.
 
Dve said:
In a new report from Imperial College, the Corona virus is estimated to be 6.6 times more deadly than the flu. This means that 0.66% of people infected (included those with no symptoms) will die, which is a significant lower death rate than first feared. The chance to die rapidly raises with age, however, and among those older then 80, the death rate is estimated to be 13.4%, and 8.6% in the age group 70-79.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext

The study correlates with another study from Harvard:

https://files.springernature.com/getResource/Full Text: 41591_2020_822_OnlinePDF.pdf?token=IULUvIufpS8AXE43riPpExKrcZMUcwpHIO0w4yhOno61RnG9Vz6/r7GCrI5AcBi92o1n3tikPjKFkiYotkHNpNM75Zwrwg1JnULfD6ql3lY/TN4C+tSUJX6hWRxjtkieuCh/Z3DLB4IVSRfpmhKqIHSwpUmbbYFF3+XBCd0RJqJtTmkkeZAHqNP4llU3+dPo6R1Se4bGQnT7HNP7lnlhp40M0VnqSPp7kwO/uk2bUqy4COccDRtTVCPDgs7U4YSWU2eA4U40nO1peLgyinFGPd3/HIjGuWHdtUJrsgreM1haTKxnHnehRLWlPX4GFr8c6Vbi+yE4hgPzCu7ffaQiUg==
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0.66% is worse than I thought. I think the best data we have are those from Iceland (0.3%) * and from Diamond Princess (1.5%). Iceland has the highest per capita testing, and they have done an almost religious contact tracing, so their data should be very good. The main problem is that there are just a bit more than 1k infected, and only 4 deaths, so there should be more needed data to know the truth. The Diamond Princess has also good data (for sure everyone who had the virus got diagnosed), but the distribution is very skewed (with much more 70+ people being than in the world, and much less 40- people than in the world, and those 0-10y.o. (who have the highest probability of surviving) being almost absent.

I think we won't know the true mortality rate for a while (and a lot depends on how well the medical system is working), but I wouldn't be surprised if it is lower than 0.5% (heck, it could be even lower than Iceland's considering that even with large testings, there are people who will be missed). However, 0.3% (or even if we go as low as flu, 0.1% which is extremely optimistic) is still extremely serious considering how much more contagious this virus is compared to influenza viruses that attack humans. And if it is anything like SARS, it will leave some survivors with lifelong consequences and make their remaining part of their lives miserable.

* There are 12 people in serious/critical stage, so they may still die, and increase the fatality rate. At worst case, it can go to 1.1%, though that is extremely pessimistic. There are also some other people who are not yet in serious/critical stage, but can reach that stage (and consequently death) in the future. Still, I would like to think that the true mortality rate is no higher than 0.5%, and hopefully only half as much.
 
MaxiPaxi said:
How the feck did Charlie recover so quickly?
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Mild case, probably got infection from touching infected surface. Viral load is the reason for more serious infections. The more virus that first infects the host, the more serious the illness. It overwhelms the immune system. That's why Doctors and nurses are losing their lives as they get more exposure.
 
0le said:
Masks can have one or two purposes:
- Surgical masks can prevent exhaling of droplets back into the atmosphere.
- Respirators e.g. N95 or FPP2/3 masks, can prevent both exhaling of droplets back into the atmosphere and inhalation of droplets.

You can limit the spread of infection by asking the entire population to wear surgical masks, which would capture the droplets as the individual exhales because this is what they were designed to do (see wiki):


Absolutely no one disputes this. The problem in the UK, US and other European countries is that the N95 masks or equivalent as well as the surgical masks are in short supply. So you can't roll them out to the general public - they must be given to health professionals first. Everyone agrees with this point.

You then find yourself in a situation where people are advocating for home made masks, which haven't been tested and no one knows for sure how effective they are in the real world. You could say "well feck it, I'll wear it anyway" which is certainly your right. But there are issues that have been raised in the thread already about using masks for both of the properly designed masks and home made masks. These issues should be recognised by any individual who wishes to wear a mask. They aren't there to say "no", but just serve more as a warning so you don't suddenly have a false sense of security.
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I don't think the bolded part is true at all to be honest. I'm sure we've all heard and read lots of people arguing 'masks don't really work', who perhaps haven't considered the first purpose of a mask that you outline. For example, people in this thread have been downplaying the role played by masks in South Korea's ability to contain the spread of the virus. If the bolded point were undisputed knowledge then that wouldn't be the case.
 
Jippy said:
Yeah I was going to say historically and was thinking more Beijing and Shanghai tbh. Apart from the white out ruining your photos at Victoria Peak in Hong Kong, never had any particular pollution issues in Asia.
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But my experience in China is also that they don't have a mask wearing culture. I always look like the odd one out when wearing my mask on heavy polluted days.

This time round, I think it was simply the government mandating that they wear mask when out of their homes
 
justboy68 said:
I don't think the bolded part is true at all to be honest. I'm sure we've all heard and read lots of people arguing 'masks don't really work', who perhaps haven't considered the first purpose of a mask that you outline. For example, people in this thread have been downplaying the role played by masks in South Korea's ability to contain the spread of the virus. If the bolded point were undisputed knowledge then that wouldn't be the case.
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Surgical masks are designed to catch droplets you exhale. If everyone wore them, then you could in theory limit (not eliminate but limit or reduce) the spread. The issue is that it isn't practical for the reasons I then outlined as well as other issues which have already been discussed quite a bit now. These include not wearing the mask properly, not taking them off properly, wearing them for too long etc.

The downplaying of the role of the masks by others is not to say the masks were completely ineffective but rather that it is a combination of things that prevents the spread, not just the masks alone.
 
sammsky1 said:
Cant get close to imagining suffering the boy went through alone, and the suffering his parents are going through now, and in years to come.
May he rest in peace, and may his parents also find peace. Amin.
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Sadly the family also lost their father a few months ago due to cancer.

There was a gofund that raised £70k, I think it’s not taking any more donations. Hopefully they open it up again.
 
In case you are interested in what happens when a droplet impacts on a dry surface, from the review by Yarin, there are several different outcomes, distinguished by one row each (where each row goes from left to right):


fl380159.f12.jpeg
 
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0le said:
Masks can have one or two purposes:
- Surgical masks can prevent exhaling of droplets back into the atmosphere.
- Respirators e.g. N95 or FPP2/3 masks, can prevent both exhaling of droplets back into the atmosphere and inhalation of droplets.

You can limit the spread of infection by asking the entire population to wear surgical masks, which would capture the droplets as the individual exhales because this is what they were designed to do (see wiki):


Absolutely no one disputes this. The problem in the UK, US and other European countries is that the N95 masks or equivalent as well as the surgical masks are in short supply. So you can't roll them out to the general public - they must be given to health professionals first. Everyone agrees with this point.

You then find yourself in a situation where people are advocating for home made masks, which haven't been tested and no one knows for sure how effective they are in the real world. You could say "well feck it, I'll wear it anyway" which is certainly your right. But there are issues that have been raised in the thread already about using masks for both of the properly designed masks and home made masks. These issues should be recognised by any individual who wishes to wear a mask. They aren't there to say "no", but just serve more as a warning so you don't suddenly have a false sense of security.
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Thanks for the info. Imho with home made masks, even a 50% drop of droplets when exhaling, it's still much better than none. I think we all should do our part as much as we can.
 
sglowrider said:
If that article ever gets out, I guarantee you that Trump will use that as proof that Obama started the pandemic just to make Trump look bad. The projected progression is just eerily too similar to reality like it was all planned out.
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Obama’s administration didn’t do anything to prevent any pandemic and before him the Bush’s and Clinton the same, since the cold war was over United States and allies just sat on top of their hands and today besides SK, and Japan none were prepared for this. 3M largest factory is in China and is not allowed to sale anything to US and I’m sure a few european countries are in the same boat, we learned a very important lesson ...we cannot let our industries outsource everything to another country. This pandemic could be our future salvation in case of a virus that spreads like this one but with a mortality of ebola we should be prepared then...I hope.
 
Sky1981 said:
The way i see it. It's better than none. Just dont take it as 100 percent safe.

But you know letting commoners with common sense is never gonna work.
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It's not just about commoner, but there's not much suitable mask available out there.
 
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