SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

This kinda shit is what you see, along with people wearing facemasks (improperly) and using gloves (improperly). It isn’t doing a damn thing to stop Covid.

 
I don't think I've been clear. It stops the spread via already infected people. If you are wearing a mask and are not infected the evidence is that it does little to protect you.
Agreed, I don't think I was clear enough. The masks help for sure if the infected wear them. The evidence I've read suggests it isn't protective for non infected persons. (though I'm still doubtful about that despite the science being done)
Yes, they do. The masks stop that. If you aren't infected a mask likely won't help you.
**edit. define mask...that's also going to have a huge impact!
Sorry if I'm being pedantic, but what you've written is not strictly true.

Four starting premise:
1. Covid19 spreads 'person to person' OR 'person touching contaminated surface with hand and then placing near mouth, nose or eyes'.
2. People touch their face 200+ times a day.
3. Masks are effective at capturing droplets, which is a main transmission route of coronavirus, and some studies have estimated a roughly fivefold protection versus no barrier alone . https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ect-me-from-coronavirus-covid-19-myths-busted
4. The evidence says mask reduce likelihood of covid19 airborne particles from entering your mouth or nose, but not 100% guarantee .

Scenario: Let's say I'm infected but asymptomatic, so not in strict quarantine but following social distancing. When out of home, wearing mask stops me from spreading covid19 particles onto my hand, which I could then spread onto surfaces, which others would later touch eg: (eg a shopping basket, trolly or a door handle). Next person who touches surface also not wearing mask, then touches mouth/nose and could get infected.
In that instance, wearing a mask helps me not to spread covid19, and not wearing mask has acted as a 'spreading' agent, and would contribute to infecting others.

Scenario: Let's say I'm uninfected. I wear a mask outside. Unknowingly I touch a surface in a shop where covid19 was alive (eg a shopping basket, trolly or a door handle). Because I'm wearing a mask, it reminds me not to touch face with hand until I get out of shop or get home. After I leave shop or when I get home, I wash hands with soap or use 60%+ alcohol based hand sanitiser. Then take off mask and can touch my face without risk.
In that instance, the mask has acted as a 'protection' barrier, and most likely saved me from being infected.
 
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Tbh Ive been told by someone extremely high up in the NHS that the majority of masks do absolutely nothing, outside the n95s.

Placebo more than anything.

The normal masks are to stop people giving the virus out. If everyone wears one then it's bleeding obvious that it will be restricted rather than as open now.
 
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https://khn.org/news/as-coronavirus...-americans-live-in-counties-with-no-icu-beds/

Bit of a concern perhaps for some Americans

Thanks, that's very interesting. Upper Montana, most of Idaho and Nevada, and the Nebraska/South Dakota border seem to be ICU deserts. Don't know how many people that could potentially affect, though.
 
Who the feck needs more research to know that wearing a mask is better than not wearing one during a global pandemic?

WHO are clowns.
I think the advice came from a good place, which was to discourage non frontline people from panic buying and hoarding.
 
Yeah because you’re feckING WASTING SCARCE EQUIPMENT.

God damn, it isn’t that difficult.
Again, I've never denied that health care professionals be given priority, that's not exactly what you were previously arguing was it?

Anyway, everyone stay safe.
 
Scenario: Let's say I'm uninfected. I wear a mask outside. Unknowingly I touch a surface in a shop where covid19 was alive (eg a shopping basket, trolly or a door handle). Because I'm wearing a mask, it reminds me not to touch face with hand until I get out of shop or get home. After I leave shop or when I get home, I wash hands with soap or use 60%+ Alcohol based hand sanitiser. Then take off mask and can touch my face without risk.
In that instance, the mask has acted as a 'protection' barrier, and most likely saved me from being infected

Except you're not used to wearing the mask and find it hot and uncomfortable. You touch it a few times trying to make it more comfortable and transmit the virus from your fingers to your face.
 
Anyone watched the Red Zone report on Sky News? It's fecking grim to watch. Worrying when they're all saying we're not doing enough.
 
Except you're not used to wearing the mask and find it hot and uncomfortable. You touch it a few times trying to make it more comfortable and transmit the virus from your fingers to your face.

I bought some whilst in Thailand, and luckily for me, the pharmacist took the time to explain how to properly wear (N95 for 2*7 hour flights was a real challenge!). I also noticed (via TV) that many people in SE Asian nations immediately started wearing masks as soon as it became a major issue in their country.

You're right. I'm not saying everyone knows how to use properly (myself included) but what to do? Unlike SE Asia, western governments and citizens have been found totally uneducated and unprepared about a Corona virus pandemic.

I understand people in west being freaked out and wearing masks, albeit without proper education. Hope they can all quickly educate themselves. If mask wearing was to be officially recommended (only after front line workers had enough stocks for their more critical needs), then an instructive communications program would also be required.
 
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I bought some whilst in Thailand, and luckily for me, the pharmacist took the time to explain how to properly wear (N95 for 2*7 hour flights was a real challenge!). I also noticed (via TV) that many people in SE Asian nations immediately started wearing masks as soon as it became a major issue in their country.

You're right. I'm not saying everyone knows how to use properly (myself included) but what to do? Unlike SE Asia, western governments and citizens have been found totally uneducated and unprepared about a Corona virus pandemic.

I understand people in west being freaked out and wearing masks, albeit without proper education. Hope they can all quickly educate themselves. If mask wearing was to be officially recommended (only after front line workers had enough stocks for their more critical needs), then a massive communications program would also be required.

A lot of Asian countries suffered a lot with SARS and sort of developed a mask wearing culture out of it.

Masks are extremely uncomfortable to wear for more than a few minutes and it takes time to get used to them. I have a crazy P100 mask that I wear at the gun range as it gets a bit smoky indoors. It's soft TPE rubber. If I feel the need to wear a mask during this, it'll be that one as I can get a much better seal than with the standard masks.
 
Assuming countries flatten the curve, what then? If you just open up the countries again, the virus will more than likely return.

Unless you lockdown specific parts of the country and do what South korea does.

IMO it is going to be a long few months. We will still be dealing with this, in some shape or form come Winter i feel.
 
I think the advice came from a good place, which was to discourage non frontline people from panic buying and hoarding.

Part of the problem in just advising sick people to wear one, they might be past the contagious stage and spreaders shedding the virus will be asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic.

Also interesting is within a German study they tested an highly infected household and couldn't find any surfaces with the virus, perhaps too late to find it. Most of the infections is spread at home in China. I'm willing to take on a lot of spread is through surfaces and touching your face as per the video I posted by the NY doctor but knowing how much can be expelled and linger in rooms just by talking laughing let alone coughing, people talking for long periods at home vs a dried droplet on a surface sitting there for various lengths of time and being brought to the mouth/nose/eyes.

I'm not looking for protection, I'm looking at reducing the expelled droplets in shops and homes in the air or on surfaces and helping the hospitals not be overwhelmed, it's a two way street, we see in Italy how immensely difficult it can be for staff to keep up with procedures and they go out the window and get infected themselves.

Various face coverings can help lessen the spread, can be washed and reused. Keeping ventilation at home and less talking in close proximity.

https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-03-29/coronavirus-choir-outbreak

"Sixty singers showed up. A greeter offered hand sanitizer at the door, and members refrained from the usual hugs and handshakes.

“It seemed like a normal rehearsal, except that choirs are huggy places,” Burdick recalled. “We were making music and trying to keep a certain distance between each other.”

After 2½ hours, the singers parted ways at 9 p.m.

Nearly three weeks later, 45 have been diagnosed with COVID-19 or ill with the symptoms, at least three have been hospitalized, and two are dead.

The outbreak has stunned county health officials, who have concluded that the virus was almost certainly transmitted through the air from one or more people without symptoms.

“That’s all we can think of right now,” said Polly Dubbel, a county communicable disease and environmental health manager.

In interviews with the Los Angeles Times, eight people who were at the rehearsal said that nobody there was coughing or sneezing or appeared ill.

Experts said the choir outbreak is consistent with a growing body of evidence that the virus can be transmitted through aerosols — particles smaller than 5 micrometers that can float in the air for minutes or longer.

The World Health Organization has downplayed the possibility of transmission in aerosols, stressing that the virus is spread through much larger “respiratory droplets,” which are emitted when an infected person coughs or sneezes and quickly fall to a surface.

But a study published March 17 in the New England Journal of Medicine found that when the virus was suspended in a mist under laboratory conditions it remained “viable and infectious” for three hours — though researchers have said that time period would probably be no more than a half-hour in real-world conditions.

One of the authors of that study, Jamie Lloyd-Smith, a UCLA infectious disease researcher, said it’s possible that the forceful breathing action of singing dispersed viral particles in the church room that were widely inhaled.

“One could imagine that really trying to project your voice would also project more droplets and aerosols,” he said.

With three-quarters of the choir members testing positive for the virus or showing symptoms of infection, the outbreak would be considered a “super-spreading event,” he said.

Linsey Marr, an environmental engineer at Virginia Tech and an expert on airborne transmission of viruses, said some people happen to be especially good at exhaling fine material, producing 1,000 times more than others.

Marr said that the choir outbreak should be seen as a powerful warning to the public.

“This may help people realize that, hey, we really need to be careful,” she said."


Obviously don't have mass gatherings like this but I can see how it can be suspended in the air through pressure waves by talking a lot in close proximity.
 
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Hi neighbour! I've never walked in to that Tesco unimpeded, it's like people walk in and turn into floor/ceiling tile enthusiasts.

Did you find any eggs in there?

Had to go and pick up a prescription at the war memorial hospital/clinic and they have a bucket ton of calpol/lemsip/paracetamol if you need it and can't find it anywhere else.

There's a lot of at risk people round our way, if there's an outbreak around here it's going to get pretty scary pretty quickly

Hello neighbour!!!!
As I said usually I hate a trip to Tesco’s but the last couple have been great.
Still no flour, no eggs no rice (apart from a 10kg bag and I’m not that desperate for rice!) and no pasta but everything else was fine. I have little hope that people around here will pull together as the things I have seen in there (including some
Guy wandering around with an axe!!) beggar belief and really make you question humanity.
Half price joints of beef atm though so I bought 2.5 kg worth and I plan on inviting some like minded affluent friends round on Sunday for a good roast.
(Is that getting old yet?)
 
Assuming countries flatten the curve, what then? If you just open up the countries again, the virus will more than likely return.

Unless you lockdown specific parts of the country and do what South korea does.

IMO it is going to be a long few months. We will still be dealing with this, in some shape or form come Winter i feel.

Increase healthcare capacity, loosen up some restrictions one by one and keep the ones that give you the biggest bang for your buck and develop a more sophisticated plan at testing and tracing infectious people at source.
 
To me it seems that the error FROM NOT wearing masks is vastly costlier than the error FROM wearing masks. So I wear a mask. Decision-making in real life (with imperfect information, uncertain conditions) is based on such asymmetries.

How Taleb of you.
 
A lot of Asian countries suffered a lot with SARS and sort of developed a mask wearing culture out of it.

Masks are extremely uncomfortable to wear for more than a few minutes and it takes time to get used to them. I have a crazy P100 mask that I wear at the gun range as it gets a bit smoky indoors. It's soft TPE rubber. If I feel the need to wear a mask during this, it'll be that one as I can get a much better seal than with the standard masks.
Agreed on both points.

Point on west wasn't 'criticism' and point on SE Asia wasn't 'praise': one positive byproduct for Asia's exposure to SARS was becoming educated and adjusted on mask wearing.

I was warned how uncomfortable n95 would be, so practiced in hotel room the night before. You're right, it feels like your face is inside a hot sauna, but the rest of your body isn't. Uncomfortable and weird at some time, and took a lot of getting used to, and alot of tolerance too. I have a feeling its something we will all have to get educated on and used to before this pandemic ends out (once west gets production up to required numbers).
 
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Part of the problem in just advising sick people to wear one, they might be past the contagious stage and spreaders shedding the virus will be asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic.

Also interesting is within a German study they tested an highly infected household and couldn't find any surfaces with the virus, perhaps too late to find it. Most of the infections is spread at home In China. I'm willing to take on a lot spread is through surfaces and touching your face as per the video I posted by the NY doctor but knowing how much can be expelled and linger in rooms just by talking let alone coughing, people talking for long periods at home vs a dried droplet on a surface sitting there for various lengths of time and being brought to the mouth/nose/eyes.

I'm not looking for protection, I'm looking at reducing the expelled droplets in shops and homes in the air or on surfaces and helping the hospitals not be overwhelmed, it's a two way street, we see in Italy how immensely difficult it can be for staff to keep up with procedures and they go out the window and get infected themselves.

Various face coverings can help lessen the spread, can be washed and reused. Keeping ventilation at home and less talking in close proximity.

https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-03-29/coronavirus-choir-outbreak

"Sixty singers showed up. A greeter offered hand sanitizer at the door, and members refrained from the usual hugs and handshakes.

“It seemed like a normal rehearsal, except that choirs are huggy places,” Burdick recalled. “We were making music and trying to keep a certain distance between each other.”

After 2½ hours, the singers parted ways at 9 p.m.

Nearly three weeks later, 45 have been diagnosed with COVID-19 or ill with the symptoms, at least three have been hospitalized, and two are dead.

The outbreak has stunned county health officials, who have concluded that the virus was almost certainly transmitted through the air from one or more people without symptoms.

“That’s all we can think of right now,” said Polly Dubbel, a county communicable disease and environmental health manager.

In interviews with the Los Angeles Times, eight people who were at the rehearsal said that nobody there was coughing or sneezing or appeared ill.

Experts said the choir outbreak is consistent with a growing body of evidence that the virus can be transmitted through aerosols — particles smaller than 5 micrometers that can float in the air for minutes or longer.

The World Health Organization has downplayed the possibility of transmission in aerosols, stressing that the virus is spread through much larger “respiratory droplets,” which are emitted when an infected person coughs or sneezes and quickly fall to a surface.

But a study published March 17 in the New England Journal of Medicine found that when the virus was suspended in a mist under laboratory conditions it remained “viable and infectious” for three hours — though researchers have said that time period would probably be no more than a half-hour in real-world conditions.

One of the authors of that study, Jamie Lloyd-Smith, a UCLA infectious disease researcher, said it’s possible that the forceful breathing action of singing dispersed viral particles in the church room that were widely inhaled.

“One could imagine that really trying to project your voice would also project more droplets and aerosols,” he said.

With three-quarters of the choir members testing positive for the virus or showing symptoms of infection, the outbreak would be considered a “super-spreading event,” he said.

Linsey Marr, an environmental engineer at Virginia Tech and an expert on airborne transmission of viruses, said some people happen to be especially good at exhaling fine material, producing 1,000 times more than others.

Marr said that the choir outbreak should be seen as a powerful warning to the public.

“This may help people realize that, hey, we really need to be careful,” she said."


Obviously don't have mass gatherings like this but I can see how it can be suspended in the air through pressure waves by talking a lot in close proximity.

This. 100%. Michael Osterholm was essentially saying this repeatedly. If you are in a contained area where what people exhale builds up in the room, you will inhale what other people have exhaled.

He gave a great example of all the dust that floats around in the air in a room. Dust that you cannot see. But you inhale it.

There was a super spreader in South Korea in a church, that infect loads of people like this. Trains and planes would be deadly as well.

I am trying my level best to not go into shops with too many people in them. And even then it is not fool proof.
 
I'm not looking for protection, I'm looking at reducing the expelled droplets in shops and homes in the air or on surfaces and helping the hospitals not be overwhelmed, it's a two way street, we see in Italy how immensely difficult it can be for staff to keep up with procedures and they go out the window and get infected themselves.
Various face coverings can help lessen the spread, can be washed and reused. Keeping ventilation at home and less talking in close proximity.
I agree. I'm also pro mask wearing (with proper guidance on how to use).
Its just the world didn't have enough supply 3 weeks ago for everyone to get some!
Hopefully that changes within the next weeks.
 
Increase healthcare capacity, loosen up some restrictions one by one and keep the ones that give you the biggest bang for your buck and develop a more sophisticated plan at testing and tracing infectious people at source.

Yea that is a good plan. I can see certain parts of countries been put on lockdowns, much like that place in China was today.
 
Agreed on both points.

Point on west wasn't 'criticism' and point on SE Asia wasn't 'praise': one positive byproduct for Asia's exposure to SARs was becoming educated and adjusted on mask wearing.

I was warned how uncomfortable n95 would be, so practiced in hotel room the night before. You're right, it feels like your face is inside a hot sauna, but the rest of your body isn't. Uncomfortable and weird at some time, and took a lot of getting used to, and alot of tolerance too. I have a feeling its something we will all have to get educated on and used to before this pandemic ends out (once west gets production up to required numbers).

The elastic bands, too!
 
This is a fair point. Which is why I said that there could have been cheaper/less-protective masks for the average Joe, and N95 and others for doctors/nurses. South Korea had an interesting take on this. They had a shortage of surgical masks too (though it is not called N95 there), so they did a campaign when people who have those masks can donate them, and in turn get the cheaper cloth versions. Which I assume means that those work too for general public (who do not need to have the same protection as doctors), while keep the best masks for the medical people. Which is the right thing to do.


Not sure they would work well here- please swap your medical grade mask for a crap one- even if it is for the wider good.
 
A lot of Asian countries suffered a lot with SARS and sort of developed a mask wearing culture out of it.

Masks are extremely uncomfortable to wear for more than a few minutes and it takes time to get used to them. I have a crazy P100 mask that I wear at the gun range as it gets a bit smoky indoors. It's soft TPE rubber. If I feel the need to wear a mask during this, it'll be that one as I can get a much better seal than with the standard masks.
Agreed on both points.

Point on west wasn't 'criticism' and point on SE Asia wasn't 'praise': one positive byproduct for Asia's exposure to SARs was becoming educated and adjusted on mask wearing.

I was warned how uncomfortable n95 would be, so practiced in hotel room the night before. You're right, it feels like your face is inside a hot sauna, but the rest of your body isn't. Uncomfortable and weird at some time, and took a lot of getting used to, and alot of tolerance too. I have a feeling its something we will all have to get educated on and used to before this pandemic ends out (once west gets production up to required numbers).
Another factor is air pollution. That has helped their mask wearing culture as long as well.
It's a very human thing as well. Instead of figuring out a way to not pollute we just put on a mask.
 
California doing quite well, which is to be expected cause of social distancing going on and stay at home orders for almost a month now. But Texas is beyond my thinking. As far as I know, they have done feck all to mitigate this, but still somehow are hardly effected.

I’m in Texas and we’ve been in the house since mid March. School in Dallas area have been shit down since early March which coincides with Spring Break.

Population density plays a big role in this, which is why you see Dallas and Houston effected more than other areas in the state. We’ve done a good job, but don’t expect to hit peak deaths until early May.
 
Now I'm completely confused about wearing a face covering. Should I try to construct one of these homemade things as long as I remember to not fidget with it, is this better than nothing? I have to interact with people. I'm washing my hands raw and trying to be as safe as possible.

If it's a stupid question you don't need to call me an idiot for asking it, I really don't know any of this stuff.
 
Heart breaking mate. I know a few people who work in Walsall Manor Hospital (as my children go to school in that town). I myself work at The Royal Wolverhampton NHS Trust (Risk department) and I really cannot comprehend how brave front line staff are.

:(

Black country had it really bad, New Cross hospital outside of Wolves had many deaths.
 
Assuming countries flatten the curve, what then? If you just open up the countries again, the virus will more than likely return.

Unless you lockdown specific parts of the country and do what South korea does.

IMO it is going to be a long few months. We will still be dealing with this, in some shape or form come Winter i feel.

Yes, this virus is a slow, slow burner. Norway is a pretty good example of that. Three weeks of social distancing and strict measures beginning while the death count was zero, (no complete lockdown, mind) which has been dutifully carried out by the population, a good start by having young-ish, healthy people infected first, more than 10.000 health care workers quarantined early on at the slightest suspicion of being in close proximity with someone having the virus, a flattened curve in both hospital admissions and ventilator patients, one of the highest testing-per-capita rates in the world (more than 100.000 of 5.3 million), showing a very low level of infection among the population - and still the body count in the nursing homes is increasing. This thief in the night will keep on going for a long, long time.
 
Yes, this virus is a slow, slow burner. Norway is a pretty good example of that. Three weeks of social distancing and strict measures beginning while the death count was zero, (no complete lockdown, mind) which has been dutifully carried out by the population, a good start by having young-ish, healthy people infected first, more than 10.000 health care workers quarantined early on at the slightest suspicion of being in close proximity with someone having the virus, a flattened curve in both hospital admissions and ventilator patients, one of the highest testing-per-capita rates in the world (more than 100.000 of 5.3 million), showing a very low level of infection among the population - and still the body count in the nursing homes is increasing. This thief in the night will keep on going for a long, long time.

Scary alright. I can only see this subsiding if either enough people get infected (and get immunity) or they develop a vaccine/drug treatment.

Some people saying as well that this will become seasonal like the flu.
 
Agreed on both points.

Point on west wasn't 'criticism' and point on SE Asia wasn't 'praise': one positive byproduct for Asia's exposure to SARS was becoming educated and adjusted on mask wearing.

I was warned how uncomfortable n95 would be, so practiced in hotel room the night before. You're right, it feels like your face is inside a hot sauna, but the rest of your body isn't. Uncomfortable and weird at some time, and took a lot of getting used to, and alot of tolerance too. I have a feeling its something we will all have to get educated on and used to before this pandemic ends out (once west gets production up to required numbers).
Tbh as well as cultural difference around being ill, I thought a lot of the mask wearing acceptance in Asia was more down to the smog problems in some of the biggest cities.
 
Hello neighbour!!!!
As I said usually I hate a trip to Tesco’s but the last couple have been great.
Still no flour, no eggs no rice (apart from a 10kg bag and I’m not that desperate for rice!) and no pasta but everything else was fine. I have little hope that people around here will pull together as the things I have seen in there (including some
Guy wandering around with an axe!!) beggar belief and really make you question humanity.
Half price joints of beef atm though so I bought 2.5 kg worth and I plan on inviting some like minded affluent friends round on Sunday for a good roast.
(Is that getting old yet?)
:lol:Not old yet.
 
Scary alright. I can only see this subsiding if either enough people get infected (and get immunity) or they develop a vaccine/drug treatment.

Some people saying as well that this will become seasonal like the flu.
A hypothesis is over the next few years covid19 mutation the will lead it to become weaker, and so yes, it will remain, but not be as deadly.

There is zero chance of it totally disappearing, even with a vaccine. But it won't be an issue once a vaccine and curative medicine is produced. Am confident that's just a matter of time.
 
Has Whitty been heard from?

He self isolated the day after Johnson didn't he so might pop up this weekend . Not sure where Patrick Vallance is.

Silly of me to want Jacob Rees Mogg to do one of these daily press conferences?:lol: