SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[Suedesi]

Always amazed me that Northern Italy is used as a reference scenario to what would happen in the US. I've lived in Brescia a few years ago, and I know for a fact that roughly 1 in 3 adults still live with their parents, which makes them extremely vulnerable. Spain/Portugal may be similar, some of the Eastern European countries also. I doubt Germany, most of the UK, the Nordic/Baltic countries fall in the same category. And that's categorically, not the case in the US.

Secondly, the air pollution in Northern Italy is terrible and according to WHO estimates (if you believe their science - because they're nimrods) it causes 8,000 deaths annually.
In addition, air pollution greatly increases the risk of viral lung diseases in elderly people (you can also check European Environment Agency data for Italy here). So don't think you can apply that uniformly to the US (maybe LA could be vulnerable?).

Finally the US significantly better equipped than Italy in terms of intensive care units – by a factor of about 3.

So I think that Italy/Spain or New York City for that matter (which is the most densely populated city in the US) are not realistic scenarios for the US.

 

[Sweet Square]

Some posters really should look inside themselves






Do they truthfully not realise how hateful and full of bile their comments appear. At a time when parts of the world are fighting for its very existence. Shame on them not of course that they will feel any I’m sure.

Shut up.

 

[Virgil]

To complete that info. The amount of known Covid-19 death in care homes is 884 out of 14638 people infected.

I don’t think the U.K. is yet including deaths outside of hospital yet unless I’ve missed it. Keeping everything crossed that when we do the number is not as bad as France. Probably will be but hoping anyway.

 

[Virgil]

Shut up.

Typical child’s response. When you grow up to be an adult perhaps you will talk some sense. For now I think I’ll put you on ignore

 

[Alabaster Codify7]

Iran and Italy have a lot of business ties with China

https://thefederalist.com/2020/03/1...ty-price-for-close-ties-with-communist-china/

Italy I automatically thought made sense, just for fashion industry alone. But I never realised Iran had such ties with them to be honest.

 

[Stookie]

The BBC just reported that the Lombardy crematorium has closed because it has a 20 day backlog. That's pretty grim. I wonder if they might just freeze bodies so that they can have time to figure out a way of letting families have a funeral in time.

I read that in Spain they were using ice rinks to “preserve” them for later cremation. Sad times.

 

[Wolverine]

That Wales GP practice worded it completed wrong
There is a misconception about what a DNAR means, now its been replaced by a purple form (Respect form) which has more nuance with regards to hospital admission, resus status, ceiling of care
DNACPR does not mean that care is denied or hospital admission is avoided. There are some cases such as palliative patients for whom it is decided that that is the case or elderly, frail patients but that is done with patient wishes. In certain instances where patient's have end-stage COPD who continue to smoke but want recurrent hospital admission an approach is agreed with ED with regards to how to manage (e.g. palliative meds, rescue care packs)

A ventilator is essentially that feeling of some food going down your gullet and the choking, retching sensation multiplied up to an enormous magnitude (which is why heavy sedation is required), for frail patients to be on that is cruel.

My first resus attempt was for a 96 year old who didn't have a DNACPR. She was very skinny. Fortunately she passed away and the crash call was mercifully short. Even if she had survived (survival rates are optimistically in the lower single digits for patients who have a cardiac arrest although this varies for younger patients with technique, comorbidities, age, patient setting). So a DNAR is an appropriate discussion to have. I spent a significant amount of time with my family to convince them to sign it for my grandfather after his stroke because severely frail patients on a ventilator or post-resus are in a terrible state if they survive (what with broken ribs, ventilator assisted infections, delirium)

It doesn't mean however patients with DNARs aren't seen - quite the contrary they can still get antibiotics, oxygens, non-invasive ventilation, fluids, home visits if its decided that community visits are best. It was important that the above is communicated effectively and that Wales surgery screwed it up in the wording big time which is a shame.

 

[jojojo]

To complete that info. The amount of known Covid-19 death in care homes is 884 out of 14638 people infected.

Thanks for helping put the numbers in context.

Care homes and similar environments must be very difficult places right now, for residents and staff.

An extra complication, in the UK at least, is that care work is typically low paid. A lot of carers work part time or fit it in alongside looking after elderly relatives or children.

A significant number of full-time carers are foreign workers, working under visa conditions and not on permanent contracts. Some may have returned home, others may not be entitled to sick pay - making that 7/14 days quarantine for symptoms very difficult.

Hopefully some employers are handling it well, but I'm sure others won't be. Especially given they may have less staff than normal, and a number of places were already close to bankruptcy before this started.

 

[NinjaFletch]

Some posters really should look inside themselves






Do they truthfully not realise how hateful and full of bile their comments appear. At a time when parts of the world are fighting for its very existence. Shame on them not of course that they will feel any I’m sure.

Not quite sure mine belongs with those others tbh, but you're right, I don't feel any shame for feeling incredibly fecked off that NHS staff are being asked to sort out this crisis after 10 years of the institution being systematically hacked to pieces by a shameless bunch of cnuts who care so little about the doctors and nurses fighting this that they can't even be bothered to test them or sort out adequate PPE for them, who couldn't be bothered to address systematic failures to recruit enough staff, who cheered when they blocked a pay rise for nurses, who have ignored the need for more funding, and who were voted back in by 43% of the population who decided that that track record was a-ok.

I get it, obviously, people want to show gratitude and feel powerless at the minute and a little thing like that cheers them up. I get it too that a lot of those people were duped by mendacious claims about new hospitals, Brexit dividends and a whole load of drivel designed to mislead them, but if people genuinely cared as much about the NHS and its staff as they say they wouldn't be voting in droves for parties that have proven themselves to be such unreliable custodians of it. Yet they did, that might not annoy you, but I sure as shit think that we could have given the doctors and nurses in this country a far better chance. Genuinely grateful as I'm sure the people who have been clapping are there's a significant number of them who voted less than six months ago to continue asking them to work with one hand behind their back.

 

[MDFC Manager]

All models are based on assumptions, and taking the most extreme assumptions will lead to unrealistic results. I've seen some amazing models and gorgeous graphs with bad data/assumptions, so I'm skeptical of the worse case scenarios out there.

We started with the assumption that 40-70% of the global population will be infected. That seems unlikely now. I've seen models use an exaggerated CFR in the 3.5% range (even though the most complete data from Diamond Princess passengers, with CFR=1% was observed in an elderly cohort; thus, CFR may be much lower than 1% in the general population) and I've seen R naughts run anywhere from 2 to 6.5 range. Then you have to model human behavior/response to the crisis and that's notoriously hard to do.

We'll see - from my people interactions (or lack thereof) in New York I'm amazed how well people are maintaining social distancing and staying cool, calm and collected. We'll get through this.

While the CFR may have been generally exaggerated, I think this thing is contagious as feck and the higher end of R0 estimates is probably right.

 

[Fully Fledged]

I worded that badly. What you said is what I meant to get at - not a "Ha told you so". Going from thinking/hoping it was a fuss about nothing to the current shit show in such a shirt time takes some adjusting to.

Yeah this got real quickly. I wouldn't hold it against anyone trying to remain positive at the beginning.

 

[Hansa]

Finally the US significantly better equipped than Italy in terms of intensive care units – by a factor of about 3.

There's little doubt that the US can mobilize a rescue operation far greater than most other countries, and as long as people stay at home, the vast majority will be okay. I would assume there are a couple of other risk factors, though, if we view the US as a whole. Poverty and lack of universal healthcare, which combined with lifestyle diseases could put a substantial amount of people in the high-risk group to begin with, if they haven't self-isolated in time. And I hope that sick nurses/caregivers are given the orders to stay at home (with pay) at the slightest hint of symptoms, because nursing/retirement homes seem to be where the bodies silently start piling up even in Northern Europe, no matter how well things are going elsewhere.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Always amazed me that Northern Italy is used as a reference scenario to what would happen in the US. I've lived in Brescia a few years ago, and I know for a fact that roughly 1 in 3 adults still live with their parents, which makes them extremely vulnerable. Spain/Portugal may be similar, some of the Eastern European countries also. I doubt Germany, most of the UK, the Nordic/Baltic countries fall in the same category. And that's categorically, not the case in the US.

Secondly, the air pollution in Northern Italy is terrible and according to WHO estimates (if you believe their science - because they're nimrods) it causes 8,000 deaths annually.
In addition, air pollution greatly increases the risk of viral lung diseases in elderly people (you can also check European Environment Agency data for Italy here). So don't think you can apply that uniformly to the US (maybe LA could be vulnerable?).

Finally the US significantly better equipped than Italy in terms of intensive care units – by a factor of about 3.

So I think that Italy/Spain or New York City for that matter (which is the most densely populated city in the US) are not realistic scenarios for the US.

Yet the death rate in the US is tracking/exceeding the rate of increase in the early weeks of the Italian epidemic. Go figure.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

There's little doubt that the US can mobilize a rescue operation far greater than most other countries, and as long as people stay at home, the vast majority will be okay. I would assume there are a couple of other risk factors, though, if we view the US as a whole. Poverty and lack of universal healthcare, which combined with lifestyle diseases could put a substantial amount of people in the high-risk group to begin with, if they haven't self-isolated in time. And I hope that sick nurses/caregivers are given the orders to stay at home (with pay) at the slightest hint of symptoms, because nursing/retirement homes seem to be where the bodies silently start piling up even in Northern Europe, no matter how well things are going elsewhere.

Yup. The prevalence of obesity, type 2 diabetes and renal failure in the US is incredibly high compared to most other countries. Lifestyle conditions that all increase Covid mortality.

 

[JPRouve]

While the CFR may have been generally exaggerated, I think this thing is contagious as feck and the higher end of R0 estimates is probably right.

That's the part that really surprised me, I followed it since the first rumors in December and while I was a bit worried about a new virus, I expected it to be closer to MERS or SARS-Cov-1 but it seems that it is way more contagious and way more resilient. It's not necessarily that lethal but because it can infect a very large amount of people quickly, it will easily find itself in contact with vulnerable population.

This virus will be a great source of information for virologists because it seems that it is very efficient.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Google are providing location data to track changes in movement between different countries. They have split it up into categories like how many people are going to retail places, transit stations, workplaces etc.

https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/

The UK for comparison is still moving between 10% and 40% more than Italy, especially in parks.

That’s very cool data.

 

[Prometheus]

Well you supported 4 bars with his batshit 'the Japanese want to kill off the over 65s' so you clearly do. Take it somewhere else.

Stop acting so touchy. That's not what I was supporting. I said I wouldn't be surprised if they had their own Dominic Cummings too. But before I even replied, you had clearly already lost your shit (e.g. insulting another poster "it's the pile of shite in your head") that I doubt you processed what I said.

 

[Organic Potatoes]

Yup. The prevalence of obesity, type 2 diabetes and renal failure in the US is incredibly high compared to most other countries. Lifestyle conditions that all increase Covid mortality.

Still not a huge sample size, but the death rate in New Orleans is significantly higher than NYC or Seattle. It like much of the South has a higher rate of pre-existing conditions than average for the US.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...e-new-yorks-obesity-is-a-factor-idUSKBN21K1B0

Detroit also has a serious problem in this regard.

 

[Skills]

This is my local surgery actually. They've been ripped apart in the Welsh media.

Off topic somewhat, can someone explain something to me because I can't understand this one:

Iran.

As far as I'm aware, Iran were the second country to be badly hit.

How? Iran is quite an insular country. It far from borders China. The Iranians are not known as big travellers or overseas tourists. And as far as I'm aware there isn't a massive Chinese community there, or much of an ex-pat situation in general?

How did it arrive in such a brutal fashion in Iran, a country that seems very unconnected to the rest of the world?

Oil. I'm not 100% on this, but because of their relationship with the west a lot of the oil exploration and refining contracts are probably held by Chinese companies instead. So there is probably a significant number of chinese workers going in and out of Iran,

 

[711]

Stop acting so touchy. That's not what I was supporting. I said I wouldn't be surprised if they had their own Dominic Cummings too. But before I even replied, you had clearly already lost your shit (e.g. insulting another poster "it's the pile of shite in your head") that I doubt you processed what I said.

Your Japan/Cummings post was quite clear. And still in the wrong thread.

 

[Sarni]

New rules restricting the number of people in shops are utter nonsense. 100+ people crowding in front of supermarket waiting to go in while up until last week I literally never saw more than 10 people at the same time inside the supermarket - and current limit is 15 people anyway but because of those new rules people are crowding to stock up. I’ve been waiting 45 minutes already and not even halfway through the queue in front of store. Nobody is really keeping 2m distance either so it’s not safe at all.

 

[Fully Fledged]

Hancock saying this morning that they've yet to find an antibody test that works. I hope those millions ordered were dependent on quality assurance, the announcement was a bit premature in hindsight.

He said they were last night.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Still not a huge sample size, but the death rate in New Orleans is significantly higher than NYC or Seattle. It like much of the South has a higher rate of pre-existing conditions than average for the US.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...e-new-yorks-obesity-is-a-factor-idUSKBN21K1B0

Detroit also has a serious problem in this regard.

The lack of free healthcare will compound the problem. You'll get a lot of people who don't have the necessary insurance doing everything possible to avoid being admitted to hospital and ending up being bankrupted as a result. Which will result in a higher rate of community deaths than you're seeing in European (and Asian?) countries.

 

[Prometheus]

And you said I was the shittest poster in here.

I'm sorry, but no-one is gonna top your posts on here.

1. Persistently bragging about how "Swedish independence" is saving you, unlike cultures with "inter-generational living" and other ailments.
2. Shitting on other countries and how the cheek-kissing culture is "no doubt" responsible for the spread of the virus in Spain, Italy etc
3. When it gets bad, blaming the spread of the virus on the immigrant subsets of Swedish society
4. Constantly defending every government that uses the phrase "scientific advise", partly because you clearly don't know any science.

You've zero self-awareness. I ignore your posts now because no thought goes into your replies.

 

[Samid]

 

[Virgil]

Not quite sure mine belongs with those others tbh, but you're right, I don't feel any shame for feeling incredibly fecked off that NHS staff are being asked to sort out this crisis after 10 years of the institution being systematically hacked to pieces by a shameless bunch of cnuts who care so little about the doctors and nurses fighting this that they can't even be bothered to test them or sort out adequate PPE for them, who couldn't be bothered to address systematic failures to recruit enough staff, who cheered when they blocked a pay rise for nurses, who have ignored the need for more funding, and who were voted back in by 43% of the population who decided that that track record was a-ok.

I get it, obviously, people want to show gratitude and feel powerless at the minute and a little thing like that cheers them up. I get it too that a lot of those people were duped by mendacious claims about new hospitals, Brexit dividends and a whole load of drivel designed to mislead them, but if people genuinely cared as much about the NHS and its staff as they say they wouldn't be voting in droves for parties that have proven themselves to be such unreliable custodians of it. Yet they did, that might not annoy you, but I sure as shit think that we could have given the doctors and nurses in this country a far better chance - genuinely grateful as I'm sure the people who have been clapping are there's a significant number of them who voted less than six months ago to continue asking them to work with one hand behind their back.

Part of what you say I can certainly agree with much I cannot. With the possible exception of Germany (thanks to Roche) and one or two Asian countries like South Korea who in the world has enough testing or PPE. Everyone is screaming out for more and I may be misguided but I don’t think the situation in the U.K. would be any different if we had elected a different colour to govern us. Not even a government of national unity would have a handle on this awful disease at this stage. Yes perhaps we could have been quicker off the mark but that claim can be levelled against the whole of Europe.

Certainly when this is all over the country will have to rethink it’s policy on recruitment and retention including salaries of NHS staff but that will also have to include care workers. We can no longer afford to rely on cheap labour and often unskilled workers to provide care in the community. Question is how many of us will be prepared to pay the cost.

Finally on the issue of running down the NHS I agree it’s accelerated under the Tories but unlike you I don’t absolve Labour for it’s part. The reduction in ICU beds commenced during the Labour watch. I’m not the least bit interested in who has fecked it up more both major parties bear a share of the blame. Just to reinforce my point it was good old Tony’s party that gave my nearest city, Norwich, a brand new hospital funded by PPI because they refused to borrow the money to build it. Net result was saddling the local health trust with a massive debt well into the future - money that could have been better spent on front line services. And don’t get me started on which of our major political parties have neglected MentalHealth the most.

IMHO the health and welfare service should be outside the political arena but I’m not holding my breath it ever will be.

So for now I will offer what limited support I can to all the valiant workers in the NHS but not forgetting the police and army and supermarket workers doing there very best to keep me safe. And if my clapping gives them even the slightest lift I will keep doing it and feck politics. That can wait until the danger is past.

To one and all stay safe.

 

[Jippy]

Some posters really should look inside themselves






Do they truthfully not realise how hateful and full of bile their comments appear. At a time when parts of the world are fighting for its very existence. Shame on them not of course that they will feel any I’m sure.

You've answered your own question. Emotive events provoke emotional responses.
Hancock keeps committing to 100k tests a day when still only 2,000 NHS workers have been tested. It's no real surprise people are angry with this greedy, inept government.

 

[NinjaFletch]

Part of what you say I can certainly agree with much I cannot. With the possible exception of Germany (thanks to Roche) and one or two Asian countries like South Korea who in the world has enough testing or PPE. Everyone is screaming out for more and I may be misguided but I don’t think the situation in the U.K. would be any different if we had elected a different colour to govern us. Not even a government of national unity would have a handle on this awful disease at this stage. Yes perhaps we could have been quicker off the mark but that claim can be levelled against the whole of Europe.

Certainly when this is all over the country will have to rethink it’s policy on recruitment and retention including salaries of NHS staff but that will also have to include care workers. We can no longer afford to rely on cheap labour and often unskilled workers to provide care in the community. Question is how many of us will be prepared to pay the cost.

Finally on the issue of running down the NHS I agree it’s accelerated under the Tories but unlike you I don’t absolve Labour for it’s part. The reduction in ICU beds commenced during the Labour watch. I’m not the least bit interested in who has fecked it up more both major parties bear a share of the blame. Just to reinforce my point it was good old Tony’s party that gave my nearest city, Norwich, a brand new hospital funded by PPI because they refused to borrow the money to build it. Net result was saddling the local health trust with a massive debt well into the future - money that could have been better spent on front line services. And don’t get me started on which of our major political parties have neglected MentalHealth the most.

IMHO the health and welfare service should be outside the political arena but I’m not holding my breath it ever will be.

So for now I will offer what limited support I can to all the valiant workers in the NHS but not forgetting the police and army and supermarket workers doing there very best to keep me safe. And if my clapping gives them even the slightest lift I will keep doing it and feck politics. That can wait until the danger is past.

To one and all stay safe.

Hi neighbour.

I'm not about to argue New Labour's record was perfect, so we can skip that (for a choice between New Labour and the Tories wasn't what the electorate has been offered since 2010) but I would certainly argue that we can't 'feck politics' until the danger has passed. Lack of PPE, lack of testing (not even just for doctors, in general), ignoring WHO advice and forging our own disastrous path, failing to join the EU ventilator scheme and lying about the reasons why to chuck money at Tory party donors to build untested machines are all political decisions. They all look like very bad political decisions and it's only when the government has been held to account and challenged on them that any of them have changed.

Pretending that there isn't a political element to this crisis doesn't help anyone. As much as the government would like to hide from scrutiny by pretending there isn't we're not helping people who will get sick by letting them do it.

 

[NinjaFletch]

You've answered your own question. Emotive events provoke emotional responses.
Hancock keeps committing to 100k tests a day when still only 2,000 NHS workers have been tested. It's no real surprise people are angry with this greedy, inept government.

Which I believe was a number which also included the antibody tests as well. Massively shifting the goalposts as per usual.

 

[RedSky]

From Estonia here. Was submitted to my local ER as I couldn't breathe anymore. Spent 8 hours at the "black section" of it with Covid patients. They took a test for it from my nostrils, also my blood tests and whatnor. The test came back negative, did get diagnosed with heavy bronchitis and asthma (latter which I didn't know I had). It was the most surreal hospitl experience I've had. The scariest as well. People in full camo guarding the doors, military level order within the hospital, the elderly patients given special care, full grown men crying. feck me, stay safe everyone.

feck. Assume you're back at home?

 

[Virgil]

You've answered your own question. Emotive events provoke emotional responses.
Hancock keeps committing to 100k tests a day when still only 2,000 NHS workers have been tested. It's no real surprise people are angry with this greedy, inept government.

Even that is a travesty of the truth. It was only yesterday afternoon that he introduced the issue of 100k tests per day. So to say that he keeps committing to that number is stretching it. He also said he could not set a timescale To achieve it but hoped it would be by the end of April. Remind me on the 1st May if that figure is not met but don’t beat him over the head for not reaching that figure today.

 

[JPRouve]

You've answered your own question. Emotive events provoke emotional responses.
Hancock keeps committing to 100k tests a day when still only 2,000 NHS workers have been tested. It's no real surprise people are angry with this greedy, inept government.

Do you know how many tests are being done daily in the UK? While I'm critical of the lack of preparedness from some of the french regional health agencies, I have to admit that they have done what they said they would in the timeframe that they initially gave, France is now at 20k tests daily and the goal is to be at 50k classic tests plus 30k rapid tests by the end of April, we will see if the goals are reached.

 

[Rajma]

Do you know how many tests are being done daily in the UK? While I'm critical of the lack of preparedness from some of the french regional health agencies, I have to admit that they have done what they said they would in the timeframe that they initially gave, France is now at 20k tests daily and the goal is to be at 50k classic tests plus 30k rapid tests by the end of April, we will see if the goals are reached.

I think UK does something like 9-10k tests per day, which is nothing imo. Lithuania with its tiny population now does around 3k per day for instance.

 

[Jippy]

Even that is a travesty of the truth. It was only yesterday afternoon that he introduced the issue of 100k tests per day. So to say that he keeps committing to that number is stretching it. He also said he could not set a timescale To achieve it but hoped it would be by the end of April. Remind me on the 1st May if that figure is not met but don’t beat him over the head for not reaching that figure today.

OK but the point is he keeps committing to more testing, more PPE, but never delivering on his empty promises being my point. Now the footballer smokescreen invoking that old folk demon as a magnet to draw away the public's anger.

EDIT: This was meant as a different reply. Why not beat over the head with his repeated unfulfilled promises?

 

[RedSky]

Lets be real, once the dust has settled in this country there will be a lot of angry people out there demanding to know why our country was so ill prepared for this. We are in unprecedented times but that doesn't excuse negligence.

 

[2cents]

From Ireland:



Presumably this is the gear we just bought from China, with much fanfare. Varadkar even made sure a picture of him ringing Beijing to say thanks was distributed through the media.

Which makes me wonder why the feck we thought our experience of buying gear from them would be any different to the Turks, Italians, Spanish and Dutch, who I believe all had similar issues?

 

[Nogbadthebad]

Has anyone else pointed out that hancock is promising thousands and thousands of antibody tests by the end of the month, while no actual antibody test that is ready for use exists yet.

 

[horsechoker]

30% of Sanchez's salary could fund the entire NHS

 

[Kentonio]

Google are providing location data to track changes in movement between different countries. They have split it up into categories like how many people are going to retail places, transit stations, workplaces etc.

https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/

The UK for comparison is still moving between 10% and 40% more than Italy, especially in parks.

Really interesting data. The US figures are terrifying yet not surprising.

 

[Grinner]

Lets be real, once the dust has settled in this country there will be a lot of angry people out there demanding to know why our country was so ill prepared for this. We are in unprecedented times but that doesn't excuse negligence.

Yeah but so what? Angry tweets and harumphing vids on FB won't mean shit to anyone in power.