SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

This

If we assume 10% of the global population will catch it and the latest real death estimate of 0.66% is accurate enough, then ~5 million.

10% and 0.66% applied to the US gives 200k deaths in the US which is their hopeful projection, so probably not far off.

Will be very much dependent on this

Age really is massive. Covid-19 is often* a case of just tipping older people with multiple conditions over the edge.

• 70-80 account for 29% of deaths in Sweden
• 80-90 account for 42% of deaths in Sweden
• 90+ account for 19% of deaths in Sweden

*by “often” I’m talking 90% of deaths.

The “key” to keeping deaths down is to protect the elderly, but it’s proving almost impossible to keep it out of nursing homes. It’s a bastard of a virus.

0.66 is an average i believe so if we can keep it away from the older population as much as possible (it will be very hard) we can save many lives.
 
I have heard that Boris has quite a nasty dose of it. Anyone else hear this?

He probably has to extend his isolation as he still has symptoms. He looks like shit in the videos he posts.
 
I'd rather just get Coronavirus

I just had someone swab the back of my mouth. I think studies have shown that the difference in efficiency between the two is not significant so I don’t know why they do it through the nose over there.
 
I just had someone swab the back of my mouth. I think studies have shown that the difference in efficiency between the two is not significant so I don’t know why they do it through the nose over there.


Keep us posted because a bunch of us will be thinking of you. Daily updates please.

Best of luck.
 




This is my local surgery actually. They've been ripped apart in the Welsh media.

Off topic somewhat, can someone explain something to me because I can't understand this one:

Iran.

As far as I'm aware, Iran were the second country to be badly hit.

How? Iran is quite an insular country. It far from borders China. The Iranians are not known as big travellers or overseas tourists. And as far as I'm aware there isn't a massive Chinese community there, or much of an ex-pat situation in general?

How did it arrive in such a brutal fashion in Iran, a country that seems very unconnected to the rest of the world?
 
Japan is the country that, putting Olympics aside, I would target on they would convenient for them to get rid of as much elderly population.

- Oldest population in the world
- One of the lowest birth dates in the world
- One of the lowest immigration rates in the developed countries

This makes the worst demographic pyramid in the world, in 2050, +65 will be the same as the population from 18-65, meaning they will have to pay the dependants and for their kids.

With their sense of duty and sacrifice, and of course with a good dose of tinfoil in my veins, would not be crazzy that they would take this "final solution"
It's not the tinfoil in your veins that's objectionable it's the pile of shite in your head. The Japanese are renowned for respecting the aged, your opinion must be very offensive to them.
 
I really think the government and provincial authorities are taking this extremely seriously. Also the people at least where I live are taking it seriously. When I go for a walk, everyone makes sure that the 2 metre distance is observed. I took my son Toronto to pick up some of his things as he has moved in with us. Traffic was almost non existent and when we went to the condo - we never saw anyone! That is amazing for a busy place. Let’s see if this translates to any flattening of the curve like B.C.

It's the same where I live in the UK, people keeping 2 metres away or more. On a narrow footpath one will walk in the middle of the road to avoid getting close, really helps with the roads being quiet. Small amount of people allowed in the shop at one time, spaced out orderly queues and there's been fully stocked shelves for weeks now.
 
My blood is boiling.


Since the video is cut. This is about the current BCG vaccinations trial that will be done in Europe and Australia to see if they have an effect on Covid19 with several BCGs and placebos. The translation is also slightly wrong, he didn't say BCG placebos but a BCG and a placebo.

The Mira lad sounds like a twat though.
 
It's not the tinfoil in your veins that's objectionable it's the pile of shite in your head. The Japanese are renowned for respecting the aged, your opinion must be very offensive to them.
Japanese people may respect their elders, but I wouldn't put beyond any government to have their own Dominic Cummings.

There's something about power that attracts true douchebags.
 

Did you read the article you posted or just posted it because the title fits in with the narrative you’ve been peddling? Or maybe you hoped others wouldn’t read it?

Fauci said the 100,000-to-200,000 death figure is a middle-of-the-road estimate, much lower than worse-case-scenario predictions.

He said preparing for 1 million to 2 million Americans to die from the coronavirus is "almost certainly off the chart," adding: "Now it's not impossible, but very, very unlikely."

However, Fauci cautioned people not to put too much emphasis on predictions, noting that "it's such a moving target that you could so easily be wrong and mislead people."



So it’d very much not “the high end”.
 
:eek:

Yep, now nothing makes sense for me. There is simply no way that it didn't affect Turkey in December already, or January the latest considering how easy it spreads in Europe even during lockdowns, and considering the number of tourists in Istanbul, and especially having the direct flight to Wuhan.

Also, there is really no way that the Turkey wouldn't notice these cases earlier. Nothing makes sense anymore.

I was in Istanbul airport in early Jan and mid-Feb and they were measuring passengers' temperatures at that point. It says here they were doing it for East Asian countries but I was scanned both ways and it didn't seem like they were discriminating. That's worlds apart from full-on coronavirus testing but they were much more alert to the problem than the London airports, who were doing absolutely nothing all the way up to mid-March at least. They were very aware of the fact that not only do they have a lot of passengers, but they're a connecting airport between Asia and Europe so it wouldn't just be people staying in Istanbul but it'd be faciliating the spread at all of the final destinations too.
 
From Estonia here. Was submitted to my local ER as I couldn't breathe anymore. Spent 8 hours at the "black section" of it with Covid patients. They took a test for it from my nostrils, also my blood tests and whatnor. The test came back negative, did get diagnosed with heavy bronchitis and asthma (latter which I didn't know I had). It was the most surreal hospitl experience I've had. The scariest as well. People in full camo guarding the doors, military level order within the hospital, the elderly patients given special care, full grown men crying. feck me, stay safe everyone.
 
This is my local surgery actually. They've been ripped apart in the Welsh media.

Off topic somewhat, can someone explain something to me because I can't understand this one:

Iran.

As far as I'm aware, Iran were the second country to be badly hit.

How? Iran is quite an insular country. It far from borders China. The Iranians are not known as big travellers or overseas tourists. And as far as I'm aware there isn't a massive Chinese community there, or much of an ex-pat situation in general?

How did it arrive in such a brutal fashion in Iran, a country that seems very unconnected to the rest of the world?
Iran also have shrines which attract millions of people and kept them open when the disease was spreading. It really isn't that difficult to comprehend, not every single Iranian is sat at home and do leave the country too. All it takes is a small number of people to bring it back to the country and it spreads like wildfire.
 
I wonder how those who were saying that this is just a bad flu in the first few pages of this thread are feeling about those statements now.

When the president of America was saying this, you can certainly forgive some redcafe chump doing the same.

I read on fb today someone still quoting the flu deaths per year and saying this is hyped up! Some people never get it.
 
India will be the key to those numbers. 1,34 billion people. If they manage to keep the infection to 10% of the population, which would be a feat in itself, then that means 134 million people gets infected. And almost none of them will get a respirator, and most of them not even a place in a hospital.

I am still worried the tally will be a lot higher than you guys think when this virus gets bad in poorer nations. Europe may have handled things in a bad way but at least we have the healthcare and wealth to turn things around. The poorer nations will need a lot of help to be able to minimize the effect of the virus. But all this is guessing. I can not see any positive news yet though since we have no proven medicines ready, no vaccine in a long time and supply chains for everything needed for protection and treatment is failing worldwide.
India? they wont have the medical facilities to test and count their dead will they? Or many of those poorer countries
 
Hancock saying this morning that they've yet to find an antibody test that works. I hope those millions ordered were dependent on quality assurance, the announcement was a bit premature in hindsight.
 
This is my local surgery actually. They've been ripped apart in the Welsh media.

Off topic somewhat, can someone explain something to me because I can't understand this one:

Iran.

As far as I'm aware, Iran were the second country to be badly hit.

How? Iran is quite an insular country. It far from borders China. The Iranians are not known as big travellers or overseas tourists. And as far as I'm aware there isn't a massive Chinese community there, or much of an ex-pat situation in general?

How did it arrive in such a brutal fashion in Iran, a country that seems very unconnected to the rest of the world?
It's not unconnected to China who took over most of their international trade after the sanctions from the western world cut them off from the usual channels. Not that long ago that majority of new cases in Wuhan were actually being imported from Iran. They are obviously under reporting both deaths and incidents.
 
Japan is the country that, putting Olympics aside, I would target on they would convenient for them to get rid of as much elderly population.

- Oldest population in the world
- One of the lowest birth dates in the world
- One of the lowest immigration rates in the developed countries

This makes the worst demographic pyramid in the world, in 2050, +65 will be the same as the population from 18-65, meaning they will have to pay the dependants and for their kids.

With their sense of duty and sacrifice, and of course with a good dose of tinfoil in my veins, would not be crazzy that they would take this "final solution"

I'd lay off the booze if I were you
 
It's not unconnected to China who took over most of their international trade after the sanctions from the western world cut them off from the usual channels. Not that long ago that majority of new cases in Wuhan were actually being imported from Iran. They are obviously under reporting both deaths and incidents.

No doubt
 
Off topic somewhat, can someone explain something to me because I can't understand this one:

Iran.

As far as I'm aware, Iran were the second country to be badly hit.

How? Iran is quite an insular country. It far from borders China. The Iranians are not known as big travellers or overseas tourists. And as far as I'm aware there isn't a massive Chinese community there, or much of an ex-pat situation in general?

How did it arrive in such a brutal fashion in Iran, a country that seems very unconnected to the rest of the world?

Iran and Italy have a lot of business ties with China

https://thefederalist.com/2020/03/1...ty-price-for-close-ties-with-communist-china/
 
Did you read the article you posted or just posted it because the title fits in with the narrative you’ve been peddling? Or maybe you hoped others wouldn’t read it?





So it’d very much not “the high end”.

Narrative I've been peddling? What are you talking about?

And to answer the question, I saw the live interview with Fauci in which he iterates that these are models, they are as good as the assumption you put in, and whenever the models come in there's a worse case and a best case - and reality tends to lie in between. 1million to 2 million is not impossible, but very unlikely. He puts his estimate at 100-200k deaths in the US. So taking that as his prediction (with caveats), 200k is on the high end.

Capisce?

 
The BBC just reported that the Lombardy crematorium has closed because it has a 20 day backlog. That's pretty grim. I wonder if they might just freeze bodies so that they can have time to figure out a way of letting families have a funeral in time.
 
The top of the medium likely range isn't the high end estimate I'm afraid.

One of the articles i read recently (sorry no idea where) looked at 20 odd models by epidemiologists in the US and the median was 270k with a top range of 770k. 200k sadly isn't unlikely.

All models are based on assumptions, and taking the most extreme assumptions will lead to unrealistic results. I've seen some amazing models and gorgeous graphs with bad data/assumptions, so I'm skeptical of the worse case scenarios out there.

We started with the assumption that 40-70% of the global population will be infected. That seems unlikely now. I've seen models use an exaggerated CFR in the 3.5% range (even though the most complete data from Diamond Princess passengers, with CFR=1% was observed in an elderly cohort; thus, CFR may be much lower than 1% in the general population) and I've seen R naughts run anywhere from 2 to 6.5 range. Then you have to model human behavior/response to the crisis and that's notoriously hard to do.

We'll see - from my people interactions (or lack thereof) in New York I'm amazed how well people are maintaining social distancing and staying cool, calm and collected. We'll get through this.
 
The BBC just reported that the Lombardy crematorium has closed because it has a 20 day backlog. That's pretty grim. I wonder if they might just freeze bodies so that they can have time to figure out a way of letting families have a funeral in time.

They have in certain areas, but not the whole region. They are moving the bodies in the night to facilities with spare room.
 
Google are providing location data to track changes in movement between different countries. They have split it up into categories like how many people are going to retail places, transit stations, workplaces etc.

https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/

The UK for comparison is still moving between 10% and 40% more than Italy, especially in parks.
 
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Some posters really should look inside themselves

Because people are trying to make themselves feel better that they voted for fecking the NHS over.
Japan is the country that, putting Olympics aside, I would target on they would convenient for them to get rid of as much elderly population.

- Oldest population in the world
- One of the lowest birth dates in the world
- One of the lowest immigration rates in the developed countries

This makes the worst demographic pyramid in the world, in 2050, +65 will be the same as the population from 18-65, meaning they will have to pay the dependants and for their kids.

With their sense of duty and sacrifice, and of course with a good dose of tinfoil in my veins, would not be crazzy that they would take this "final solution"
Japanese people may respect their elders, but I wouldn't put beyond any government to have their own Dominic Cummings.

There's something about power that attracts true douchebags.


Do they truthfully not realise how hateful and full of bile their comments appear. At a time when parts of the world are fighting for its very existence. Shame on them not of course that they will feel any I’m sure.