Feck me Jared Kushner is on the task force now. You would think he deserved a break after sorting the Middle East out.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
Oh Jesus is this the only kind of test available?
I thought there was a blood test...?
That was unusually long, i have seen inserting this thing for only a couple of seconds
I know death numbers are going up rapidly, but that one shocked me.
I feel like there’s about a dozen people running the whole federal government right now. I know it’s not true, but he keeps recycling the same people into different positions. I’m surprised he hasn’t given his daughter a gig designing PPE.
it includes the “catch up” of non hospitalised deaths since the beginning which accounts for 2/3 iirc.
I'm not sure anyone's saying otherwise? Just that we could have done a damn sight better than 'small gestures' and make NHS actually feel valued in their jobs.
What substantially annoys me about it is that it's happening at a time when the public are simultaneously hugely positive about the Conservatives handling of this crisis in spite of their utter failure to support the NHS. I was being facetious and I know people's hearts are in the right place with it, but it seems hollow when people's support for the NHS and those working in it than banging a pot with a stick and who will be back at the ballot box in 4 years time to vote for a party again who are literally letting doctors die because of their uselessness.
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It is starting to look very worrisome. We were at 60+ deaths on Monday and we are already at 173. Almost tripled!
Not hard to imagine. Age and preexisting conditions being the main factors I'd imagine?
Not that it makes any better but there are multiple deaths in care centres for elderly. The trend in the next 10 days will be telling.
As it spreads to the rest of the country things will get worse. Some of the areas it's going to are chock full of people who would vote for Donald Trump if they could. They still don't believe this is real.
Oh Jesus is this the only kind of test available?
I thought there was a blood test...?
Screw that, i would rather not know.
I assume vice-versa. Young people without pre-existing conditions get favored treatment cause they have a higher likelihood of surviving. I think this is what happened in Lombardy, there were rumors that if you're over 60 and need a ventilator, you wouldn't get one.
On the other side, it seems that if you need a ventilator, then you kind of fecked anyway. From various data, the mortality rate was over 90% in China, to 48% in the UK. https://www.physiciansweekly.com/mortality-rate-of-covid-19-patients-on-ventilators/ (limited data in all cases).
Oh Jesus is this the only kind of test available?
I thought there was a blood test...?
Jesus Christ, I ain't doing this, no fecking way.
That is what I meant the old and particularly the old with pre-existing conditions will be the first to be de-prioritised.
Oh Jesus is this the only kind of test available?
I thought there was a blood test...?
They should have just showed this to everyone. Nobody would have left the house in March.
I shall utilize this kind of pitch when the quarantine is over.
In case of B.C. , the first focus was in one of them. hopefully they took precautions but I am afraid that is unavoidable as a big % of the deaths happens there in everycountry
I hope Canada learnt from europe (not like US it seems) but the chronic shortage of medical personnel and a non centralized medical authority might create some difficulties. I see the authorities engaged and taking it seriously at list in their appearances. Will see their actions. I believe we should be in a more strict lock down
Aren't this areas less dense? lucky dumb bastards....
I really think the government and provincial authorities are taking this extremely seriously. Also the people at least where I live are taking it seriously. When I go for a walk, everyone makes sure that the 2 metre distance is observed. I took my son Toronto to pick up some of his things as he has moved in with us. Traffic was almost non existent and when we went to the condo - we never saw anyone! That is amazing for a busy place. Let’s see if this translates to any flattening of the curve like B.C.
I'm nailing my doors shut tomorrow.
Trish Regan apparently fired from Fox, amidst fear that Fox can be sued for downplaying the risk from the virus. https://god.dailydot.com/fox-news-f...ABuNzpJ8ZrF2g2aB4exTqBSY8FjezzngRw3McuPp3uFlw
I am not sure if they can be really successfully sued, but it would be great if that happens. To be fair, Tucker should be safe cause he has been big into the risks from coronavirus since the beginning, but the others have been an absolute shambles.
I am not sure if they can be really successfully sued, but it would be great if that happens. To be fair, Tucker should be safe cause he has been big into the risks from coronavirus since the beginning, but the others have been an absolute shambles.
Friend of my wife's lives in New York and (understandably) monitoring situation carefully.
sent her this..... https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections ...... which projects American cases as one country and per state. Very scary as looks like there's a lot to come
sent her this..... https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections ...... which projects American cases as one country and per state. Very scary as looks like there's a lot to come
This is more like a best-case scenario rather than scary. When all this is done, if the US has only 93.5k deaths, then that would be a massive success. A bad flu season like that of 17-18 killed 60k people, this would be just 1.5 times as bad.
I am afraid it would be quite a bit worse. The White House deaths had a 95% interval confidence with 100k and 240k deaths as limits, which essentially has the point estimate at 170k. That is what probably will happen, which actually is nowhere as bad as some of the other projections.
I wonder how those who were saying that this is just a bad flu in the first few pages of this thread are feeling about those statements now.
TBF this is new territory - just 3 weeks ago - at least for me and many people this was not “real”! How things have changed now.
I worded that badly. What you said is what I meant to get at - not a "Ha told you so". Going from thinking/hoping it was a fuss about nothing to the current shit show in such a shirt time takes some adjusting to.
Most people cannot think exponentially (or logarithmically). They might know the concepts, but still, for the most part, think linearly (like, it killed 2k in 3 months, how bad can it really be?).
It is also the reason why some people started panicking when they saw the number of deaths reaching a few hundred per day when in all likelihood, that was only the start and it was going to get much worse before was going to get better. Heck, even now, it is going to get much worse before it gets better (and then it might get worse again when countries start relaxing the constraints they have put).
I guess part of it is just luck. In country A patient zero is some loner living in a village and the initial spread is quite slow, in country B it's a person working in the city center who serves hundreds/thousands of people per day.
Agreed. When I saw the early guesstimate of R0, hospitalisation rates and ICU rates, did the ballpark figures and then looked at how few ICU beds we all have I have a huge "oh shit" moment.
The difference between an R0 of 1.3 and 3 after 10 generations of infection being 14 vs 49,000 people infected makes you go back and check your figures.
Exactly. And I don't know if it was a coincidence, but the R0 numbers you got seem to be close to the flu and guesstimated R0 for COVID-19. Even the 'it is just a flu' was real (obviously it is not) when it came to mortality, it is extremely more contagious. The flu in the US infects 20-25m people per year and kills 10-60k people for year. Without mitigation, this was going to easily reach 70% of the population which is 230m and kill 230k people. So, even if it was just as mild as the flu, it being so contagious makes this a disastrous disease.
Which is why 'this is just a flu' was wrong when some random person said, and extremely dangerous when politicians/media said it.
I would say most increases are now community spreading. If people would keep their distance it would be a lot better for all of us.
Nope definitely not me anyway
Not a huge amount really.
Obviously I was wrong but this was late Jan. I'd seen all the scare mongering over SARS, swine flu, bird flu etc etc and I didn't really appreciate the novel aspect.
I now know a lot more about epidiomology than I care to.
Ah, I understand. Thank you
I figured as much. We will get through this but it is truly unprecedente stuff!
Not unprecedented but hopefully once in a century event (the last one with a similar impact might have been the Spanish flu a century ago). Of course, we can hope that the fatalities would be much lower, mostly because of the mitigations we have been doing, but also because of the advancements of the medicine.