SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
Hope they vote this cockroach out of office.
He looks infected.
How does warm weather affect this virus then? Is it a myth or is the flu pretty much non existent in the summer?
Are scientists still unsure?
Are scientists still unsure?
They're unsure as far as I know.
Thought I heard some suggestion that sunlight will be more damaging to the virus than warmer temperatures in general.
Market thwarted etc etc.
Also the comments are pretty disgustingly full of anti-semitism including holocaust jokes.
So we need to charge our bodies with sunlight like Superman?
If it's sunny, I command you to go outside naked and stand in the sun for 10 minutes.
Difficult to draw that comparison from the data, the geography and population density of cities/towns differs significantly.
Have the UK's media generally been taking this tone or is it a new development? Much more accusatory than I would have expected.
May the best state win and may the best people be cured 
States Bidding Against Each Other Pushing Up Prices Of Ventilators Needed To Fight Coronavirus, NY Governor Cuomo Says
https://www.forbes.com/sites/amyfel...onavirus-ny-governor-cuomo-says/#6f1a419a293e
States Bidding Against Each Other Pushing Up Prices Of Ventilators Needed To Fight Coronavirus, NY Governor Cuomo Says
https://www.forbes.com/sites/amyfel...onavirus-ny-governor-cuomo-says/#6f1a419a293e
Everything iIs going according to the plan.
Sadly I think you're right.
Why sadly? If this was true then it’d mean the virus would be less lethal than seasonal flu and we could potentially go back to normal in a couple of months. It’s not very probable though. While there are certainly more cases than reported it won’t be by that much.
You're right at that but It's easier spread to people who won't survive it.
He actually did his job last night, following up with the Chemical Industries Association on Goves statement that we couldn't get hold of enough of the reagents for tests who informed him that Gove is full of shit and that none of their members are reporting a shortage.
Did he bring this up in the Government press conference today though? Did he feck
Another sensationalist graph and headlines to have UK doing bad. UK is behind in the outbreak, Spain who is somehow getting kudos points for topping out at ~900 deaths went through the same jump with more deaths per day from 200-300 to 500 to 700 to 800-900. You can plot the same alarming graph of no plateau with the same headlines for Spain during this time 1-2 weeks ago.
If UK goes on to have 1000 then 1200 deaths then fine no problem but the FT graph doesn't point to that happening or not, with how poor the NHS is we just well might but this idea of Spain plateauing so we should be now right now and ignoring UK and Spain are at different timelines and ignoring Spain went through this exponential rise is disingenuous. We're 1-2 weeks down the road and hitting Degner while Spain is at the Spoon curve on Suzuka, we can't take the corner Spain is on, we're going through Degner that Spain went through 1-2 weeks ago. We'll see if we top out like Spain and Italy have at 800-900 per day.
Oddly similar 3 deaths as a starting point?
United Kingdom Dates | UK Deaths | Italy Dates | Italy Deaths | Spain Dates | Spain Deaths | France Dates | France Deaths | Germany Dates | Germany Deaths | USA Dates | USA Deaths |
Mar 8th | 3 | Feb-23rd | 3 | Mar 5th | 3 | Mar 2nd | 3 | Mar 11th | 3 | Mar 1st | 2 |
Mar 9th | 5 | Feb 24th | 7 | Mar 6th | 8 | Mar 3rd | 4 | Mar 12th | 5 | Mar 2nd | 6 |
Mar 10th | 6 | Feb 25th | 11 | Mar 7th | 10 | Mar 4th | 4 | Mar 13th | 8 | Mar 3rd | 9 |
Mar 11th | 8 | Feb 26th | 12 | Mar 8th | 17 | Mar 5th | 7 | Mar 14th | 8 | Mar 4th | 11 |
Mar 12th | 10 | Feb 27th | 17 | Mar 9th | 30 | Mar 6th | 9 | Mar 15th | 12 | Mar 5th | 11 |
Mar 13th | 11 | Feb 28th | 21 | Mar 10th | 36 | Mar 7th | 16 | Mar 16th | 12 | Mar 6th | 14 |
Mar 14th | 21 | Feb 29th | 29 | Mar 11th | 55 | Mar 8th | 19 | Mar 17th | 12 | Mar 7th | 19 |
Mar 15th | 35 | Mar 1st | 41 | Mar 12th | 86 | Mar 9th | 30 | Mar 18th | 12 | Mar 8th | 21 |
Mar 16th | 55 | Mar 2nd | 52 | Mar 13th | 133 | Mar 10th | 33 | Mar 19th | 20 | Mar 9th | 26 |
Mar 17th | 71 | Mar 3rd | 79 | Mar 14th | 196 | Mar 11th | 48 | Mar 20th | 31 | Mar 10th | 31 |
Mar 18th | 104 | Mar 4th | 107 | Mar 15th | 294 | Mar 12th | 61 | Mar 21st | 47 | Mar 11th | 37 |
Mar 19th | 144 | Mar 5th | 148 | Mar 16th | 342 | Mar 13th | 79 | Mar-22nd | 55 | Mar 12th | 41 |
Mar 20th | 177 | Mar 6th | 197 | Mar 17th | 533 | Mar 14th | 91 | Mar 23rd | 86 | Mar 13th | 49 |
Mar 21st | 233 | Mar 7th | 233 | Mar 18th | 638 | Mar 15th | 127 | Mar 24th | 114 | Mar 14th | 55 |
Mar 22nd | 281 | Mar 8th | 366 | Mar 19th | 833 | Mar 16th | 148 | Mar 25th | 149 | Mar 15th | 62 |
Mar 23rd | 335 | Mar 9th | 463 | Mar 20th | 1,093 | Mar 17th | 175 | Mar 26th | 198 | Mar 16th | 76 |
Mar 24th | 422 | Mar 10th | 631 | Mar 21st | 1,381 | Mar 18th | 244 | Mar 27th | 253 | Mar 17th | 97 |
Mar 25th | 468 | Mar 11th | 827 | Mar 22nd | 1,813 | Mar 19th | 372 | Mar 28th | 325 | Mar 18th | 123 |
Mar 26th | 578 | Mar 12th | 1,016 | Mar 23rd | 2,207 | Mar 20th | 450 | Mar 29th | 389 | Mar19th | 175 |
Mar 27th | 759 | Mar 13th | 1,266 | Mar 24th | 2,696 | Mar 21st | 562 | Mar 30th | 455 | Mar 20th | 230 |
Mar 28th | 1,019 | Mar 14th | 1,441 | Mar 25th | 3,434 | Mar 22nd | 674 | Mar 31st | 600 | Mar 21st | 298 |
Mar 29th | 1,228 | Mar 15th | 1,809 | Mar 26th | 4,145 | Mar 23rd | 860 | Apr 1st | 732 | Mar 22nd | 408 |
Mar 30th | 1,408 | Mar 16th | 2,158 | Mar 27th | 4,858 | Mar 24th | 1100 | | | Mar 23rd | 519 |
Mar 31st | 1,789 | Mar 17th | 2,503 | Mar 28th | 5,690 | Mar 25th | 1331 | | | Mar 24th | 681 |
Apr 1st | 2,352 | Mar 18th | 2,978 | Mar 29th | 6,528 | Mar 26th | 1,696 | | | Mar 25th | 906 |
Apr 2nd | | Mar 19th | 3,405 | Mar 30th | 7,340 | Mar 27th | 1,995 | | | Mar 26th | 1,159 |
| | Mar 20th | 4,032 | Mar 31st | 8,189 | Mar 28th | 2,314 | | | Mar 27th | 1,592 |
| | Mar 21st | 4,825 | Apr 1st | 9,053 | Mar 29th | 2,606 | | | Mar 28th | 2,039 |
| | Mar 22nd | 5,475 | Apr 2nd | | Mar 30th | 3,024 | | | Mar 29th | 2,452 |
| | Mar 23rd | 6,077 | | | Mar 31st | 3,523 | | | Mar 30th | 2,969 |
| | Mar 24th | 6,820 | | | Apr 1st | 4,032 | | | Mar 31st | 3,737 |
| Mar 25th | 7,503 | Apr 2nd | Apr 1st | ||||||||
| Mar 26th | 8,215 | Apr 2nd |
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I've alredy done that. Fell asleep in strong sunlight, it was warm despite being early spring. I was a bit obsessed with that vitamin D thing, having spent so little time in the outside in the past few weeks.
On another note, that German study seemed quite intuitive to me. It was already obvious that the religious meeting was the bomb in South Korea. I had my meltdown here in the 2nd of March which was the day a Santa Clara - Porto was played here in Azores. What could go wrong by having a football match were a few hundred people from Porto came to mingle with thousands of Azoreans. When I realized the game wasn't going to be cancelled I simply broke down. Just a few weeks later Italians were adamant that football games were a "biologic bomb".
I think that 14 days quarantine is not enough if testing isn't done. It seems safe enough to rule out disease with a negative test, but I think symptomatic disease takes a bit more time to develop, so we are lifting quarantines of potentially undiagnosed positive cases. When we actually test someone and it brings out a positive result we reset the quarantine unt they're clear. Now things are getting really hairy here and I think that's the reason. Our biggest identified transmission chain is a group of 20 local politicians and entrepreneurs who returned from Toronto in the 10th of March. Many were already off quarantine when we realized they were positive.
It's going to be hell in here in a few days. Our hospital is already compromised. Our health authority is ruled by a nurse with zero credentials in public health and he's quite full of himself. It's like putting a skilled handyman in charge of building a bridge instead of an engineer. Nothing tondo with him being a nurse, he's just dumb. My vigilance team is lead by an nurse who spent her entire life in public health, and she's brilliant. But we're stuck with whoever has political power at the time.
Mistakes all over the place in one of the poorest regions in Western Europe. Of nine islands only three small ones have yet to have cases. Thankfully zero deaths so far, but this will change dramatically in days.
Stay safe and well my friend.
I just had to fill my car up with gas. While I was waiting to pay (two meters behind a guy buying fecking lottery tickets) a woman came up and stood right behind me. It's unbelievable.
I can't say for certain but I think if I was pushed to pick I would say, we English generally like to be disciplined most.
I saw 917 deaths in the US today.
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...ancing-measures-ex-who-official-says-11967018
"He pointed out that studies of restricted samples of people infected with coronavirus, including those on cruise ships, indicated that around half of those who contract the illness have no symptoms. "
If half of the people that have it don't even know they've got it your probably talking at least 10 times probably more I would have thought.
Here's a curious question.
Is every person who works at hospital at a huge huge risk? For example, how likely is it for a receptionist to catch this compared to a cleaner?
Is every person who works at hospital at a huge huge risk? For example, how likely is it for a receptionist to catch this compared to a cleaner?
I really wish the Financial Times would stop calling that graph just a "log" graph. It is actually "semi-log" graph, which means only one of the axes is logarithmic. This is significant because if both axes were logarithmic, i.e. "log-log" scales, a straight line would actually represent a power-law relationship i.e. f(x) = ax^b + c where a,b,c are constants as opposed to an exponential function which is described as f(x) = a^x + b where a and b are constants.
It would depend on the specifics of the situation. A friend of mine posted a picture today on something that looks almost like an astronaut space suit.
Meanwhile I work in close proximity with about 30 other healthcare workers and I take alcohol to sterilize my computer and phone because in some days there is none to be found there.
The data from cruise ships showed that it was 17%, not half. It was half at first but more people started developing symptoms later. Either the person who wrote the article is misinformed or the professor they interviewed isn't really up-to-date with the matter. Also I don't really get the logic for the bold bit.
There is a possibility of mutated forms of the disease varying in severity. It is likely that all of those on the Diamond Princess has the same strain. It is believed to has since evolved into a number of different strains, which could mean a number of people have a form of coronavirus which is milder than others.
Only conjecture on my part, really.
Ah yes, the 'unique traits' assertion that was being put about in March in Japan. Not by me. Everything from green tea to Japanese old people are thin and not fat like westerners and in between such as all the sushi/ fish consumption somehow lowered Japan's rates of infections. Personally I don't eat much sushi or fish here at all because I don't like to be poisoned slowly by heavy metals, dioxins etc. That's also a problem in our countries but at least a significant number of people know that tuna especially is toxic. You won't get far telling that to most Japanese, educated or not.
Then the Olympics were cancelled and suddenly we have a 'severe' situation that could turn into a health 'crisis' with not enough beds! Who would have thought?
Every country has its own characteristics but it's nonsense to suggest that somehow any country can be a genuine outlier here. I knew Japan was certainly not an outlier because the authorities were running fast from any real testing and the society operates like a cartel so there were no medical experts apart from one willing to put themselves out there and call russian roulette on it all.
The near-fascists masquerading as the Japanese Government blew all the money on the Olympics and assorted kickbacks to construction companies etc. In my street alone three companies proclaiming they were building new nasty little cheap apartments 'because of the Olympics' were simply taking advantage of lenient regulations for Olympic-related housing. They were hammering away in our narrow street from 7.30am to 7pm at night. And that's only one small example of the rorts going on.
As for Italy and Spain - don't forget nearly half a million Chinese citizens were living and working in the north of Italy. I'm not blaming them. I'm just pointing out that a highly mobile Chinese population travelling back and forth between China and Italy was bound to have a big effect on virus numbers and its spread. Same in Australia. Dual citizens and interntional students from China in addition to tourists spread it around but Australia's geographically much bigger than Italy. I'm not saying they were the only ones but they were responsible for the first wave, the second wave now in Oz is coming from everybody returning from international travel. Sweden didn't and doesn't have the same situation.
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I liked your raw data and I had been following it since the beginning, thank you. It helps to get a picture of the situation. But I believe that the graphs that I had been positing everyday and that today @Sweet Square posted STEALING MY feckING JOB!!!
are in agreement with your data but the author, as I mentioned one of the days because @Sweet Square is not doing MY JOB WELL!!!... is counting from the 10th day of infection. Probably because the beginning is too randomly to take in account? but I must confess that I don't know much about statistic methods. I just love numbers and try to understand the situation that we are living in. If we take your numbers (and percentage of growth) and we use his method will see that UK is following Italy's path. And most important, his % is ramping up for the last 3 days compared with Italy and is matching Spain's growth when they were around 2000 deaths. Again, please someone correct me as maybe I must be talking bollocks. But would you agree with me? Of course we would need to agree if it is more realistic take it from the 1st death or the 10th. And of course % goes smaller as bigger the numbers. That is why is call reaching the peak. But by percentage at 2000 deaths, Uk is slightly worse than Italy to reach the peak (so improvement needs to be made)Uk dates | UK deaths | UK % | Italy Dates | Italy Deaths | Italy % | Spain Dates | Spain Deaths | Spain % |
Mar 12th | 10 | 25,00% | Feb 25th | 11 | 57,14% | Mar 7th | 10 | 25,00% |
Mar 13th | 11 | 10,00% | Feb 26th | 12 | 9,09% | Mar 8th | 17 | 70,00% |
Mar 14th | 21 | 90,91% | Feb 27th | 17 | 41,67% | Mar 9th | 30 | 76,47% |
Mar 15th | 35 | 66,67% | Feb 28th | 21 | 23,53% | Mar 10th | 36 | 20,00% |
Mar 16th | 55 | 57,14% | Feb 29th | 29 | 38,10% | Mar 11th | 55 | 52,78% |
Mar 17th | 71 | 29,09% | Mar 1st | 41 | 41,38% | Mar 12th | 86 | 56,36% |
Mar 18th | 104 | 46,48% | Mar 2nd | 52 | 26,83% | Mar 13th | 133 | 54,65% |
Mar 19th | 144 | 38,46% | Mar 3rd | 79 | 51,92% | Mar 14th | 196 | 47,37% |
Mar 20th | 177 | 22,92% | Mar 4th | 107 | 35,44% | Mar 15th | 294 | 50,00% |
Mar 21st | 233 | 31,64% | Mar 5th | 148 | 38,32% | Mar 16th | 342 | 16,33% |
Mar 22nd | 281 | 20,60% | Mar 6th | 197 | 33,11% | Mar 17th | 533 | 55,85% |
Mar 23rd | 335 | 19,22% | Mar 7th | 233 | 18,27% | Mar 18th | 639 | 19,89% |
Mar 24th | 422 | 25,97% | Mar 8th | 366 | 57,08% | Mar 19th | 833 | 30,36% |
Mar 25th | 468 | 10,90% | Mar 9th | 463 | 26,50% | Mar 20th | 1093 | 31,21% |
Mar 26th | 578 | 23,50% | Mar 10th | 631 | 36,29% | Mar 21st | 1381 | 26,35% |
Mar 27th | 759 | 31,31% | Mar 11th | 827 | 31,06% | Mar 22nd | 1813 | 31,28% |
Mar 28th | 1019 | 34,26% | Mar 12th | 1016 | 22,85% | Mar 23rd | 2207 | 21,73% |
Mar 29th | 1228 | 20,51% | Mar 13th | 1266 | 24,61% | Mar 24th | 2696 | 22,16% |
Mar 30th | 1408 | 14,66% | Mar 14th | 1441 | 13,82% | Mar 25th | 3434 | 27,37% |
Mar 31st | 1789 | 27,06% | Mar 15th | 1809 | 25,54% | Mar 26th | 4145 | 20,70% |
Apr 1st | 2352 | 31,47% | Mar 16th | 2158 | 19,29% | Mar 27th | 4858 | 17,20% |
Apr 2nd | | Mar 17th | 2503 | 15,99% | Mar 28th | 5690 | 17,13% | |
| | Mar 18th | 2978 | 18,98% | Mar 29th | 6528 | 14,73% | |
| | Mar 19th | 3405 | 14,34% | Mar 30th | 7240 | 10,91% | |
| | Mar 20th | 4032 | 18,41% | Mar 31st | 8189 | 13,11% | |
| | Mar 21st | 4825 | 19,67% | Apr 1st | 9053 | 10,55% | |
| | Mar 22nd | 5475 | 13,47% | Apr 2nd | | ||
Mar 23rd | 6077 | 11,00% | | | ||||
Mar 24th | 6820 | 12,23% | | | ||||
| | | Mar 25th | 7503 | 10,01% | |||
| | | Mar 26th | 8215 | 9,49% | |||
| | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | |
steal that @Sweet Square
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Power and safety to you Sir or Madame! I can't begin to imagine what it would be like to be involved in any part of the medical system at the moment.
You and your counterparts around the world are heroes. If anything positive comes from this pandemic, hopefully the public will not forget your service and demand that the people they elect pay you what you deserve and give you the better conditions you deserve.
Endless Respect To You All Wherever You Are.
Viral load could also be a reason why some people get a mild illness or a severe illness.
https://www.newscientist.com/articl...-load-or-infectious-dose-make-covid-19-worse/
Don't take my word for it, but I've heard because it's so slow to mutate, the strains are essentially identical.
I had a debate here if masks are helpful or not. Here from Fauci who says that 'in a perfect world with unlimited supplied, everyone wearing a mask would help stop the spread'.
This would explain in part why some people of the medical system get sick and die from it, they get exposed to the worst cases and therefore contaminated.
Not sure if these are going to be tested post-mortem and added retroactively or if this is an insane and unbelivable coincidence.