SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[Wibble]

Unless the virus is instantly destroyed when a droplet evaporates to the surroundings then aerosol transmission is certainly possible. I'd have to calculate to be certain but many of the small droplets coughed/sneezed into dry air are going to evaporate in seconds - leaving the virus in open air?

A quick google suggests the mean size of a cough drop is about 8 microns. If I were guessing I'd say most don't ever reach the ground due to their small size, they are more likely to evaporate leaving the virus aerosolised.

I'm buying a hazmat suit

 

[Pexbo]

He could be wrong in that herd immunity might end up being the way out of this for some countries whether we like it or not.

Herd immunity will absolutely be the final solution, there’s absolutely nobody that will dispute that. Natural herd immunity will slow the virus, almost complete herd immunity from a vaccine will get life back to normal.

Herd immunity from a national chicken pox party like the original plan was, is and always has been a mental idea. Our NHS would have been absolutely fecked. The best course of action would have been immediate early lock down and forcing our manufacturing capacity to start preparing us.

 

[cyberman]

He could be wrong in that herd immunity might end up being the way out of this for some countries whether we like it or not.

From reading your posts you seem to have bought into Boris herd immunity idea and stuck with it even though they abandoned it long ago?
Herd immunity wouldn't bear fruit any earlier than it would take to develop a vaccine

 

[11101]

I love the country of America in itself, but the hoardes of right-wing Americans who voted this guy in, are now seeing the full hell of what they voted for begin to show itself.

I doubt it. It will never occur to them that maybe, just maybe, other countries are doing something better than them.

If it does, they will just revert to trust in God.

 

[RedPed]

Temporary increase in UK contactless card payment limits from today to £45.

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2...-spending-to-rise-to-45-at-beginning-of-april

 

[Wibble]

Trust me it really doesn't and people are better at social distancing rather than knowing how to use and put a mask on.

There are couple of important things to be noted(most of which are already covered):
1. reusable masks have to be changed every 1-2 hrs or as soon as it picks up moisture as they do zero prevention otherwise.
2. it builds bacteria on the inside and especially in hot days they become contaminated/damp very quickly.
3. large number of people don't know how to wear it or don't wear it properly because it impedes their normal breathing.
4. most people begin to touch their face more often to fix their mask or they touch the mask inside and out when they remove it temporary.
5. masks(ffp2 and ffp3) that actually prevent the droplets to come through are significantly more expensive and there is a shortage everywhere at the moment.
6. they also give you a false sense of security and in this way you won't distance yourself from others in the same mould of when you are not wearing one.
7. there are also other masks with ventilation which only protects you and doesn't let that much moisture to build on the inside but lets all droplets outside which is exactly the opposite of what masks should do.

Sounds sensible

 

[Fully Fledged]

I'm buying a hazmat suit

You don't need the suit just the masks they wear. They are about £100 for the mask/hood and about £500 for the air flow unit (that feeds clean air into the mask). I'd be surprised if you could by them now and if you could they would probably be going for thousands. They have filters that need replacing and a battery unit that last for about 8 hours when new.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

From reading your posts you seem to have bought into Boris herd immunity idea and stuck with it even though they abandoned it long ago?
Herd immunity wouldn't bear fruit any earlier than it would take to develop a vaccine

You think it was Boris idea? Has that guy ever had an idea? Haha.

I think the original plan was to go on the Swedish model, which may or may not be the final solution for all countries.

As I say time and time again, it’s too early to tell either way.

You guys seem certain though so I’ll leave my argument there, saying that I’m far from certain how this will play out anywhere.

 

[Smores]

Its all about time. This virus spreads exponentially, if you stop the spread earlier the number of cases is drastically lower and then you buy yourself time which is absolutely invaluable. Time to figure out what treatments are effective, time to manufacture PPE equipment and medical equipment like ventilators, time to get emergency wards in place, time to train healthcare staff up to date on the specific protocols required for the pandemic, time to negotiate international deals for the raw materials required to produce equipment, time for new equipment to be developed, tested and rolled out.

Our initial response was to allow a large majority if the population to get the virus and accept the fact that a few million would die. That response would have overwhelmed our health service and it wouldn’t have “just” been the old and vulnerable dying, as if that’s acceptable in a compassionate society anywaym

It's the preparation or lack thereof that really anger me. We knew the NHS wasn't prepared and seemed to play a waiting game before we decided to actually bother to do anything.

We could have been a month ahead on so many elements of the planning not just the NHS but as a wider society. It just leads me to believe we were planning on herd immunity with limited lockdown and realised our mistake late with us now playing catchup.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

It's the preparation or lack thereof that really anger me. We knew the NHS wasn't prepared and seemed to play a waiting game before we decided to actually bother to do anything.

We could have been a month ahead on so many elements of the planning not just the NHS but as a wider society. It just leads me to believe we were planning on herd immunity with limited lockdown and realised our mistake late with us now playing catchup.

This is 100% true, but vote in a conservative government and that’s what you get. Although that said, pretty much all countries health services seem incredibly unprepared.

 

[cyberman]

You think it was Boris idea? Has that guy ever had an idea? Haha.

I think the original plan was to go on the Swedish model, which may or may not be the final solution for all countries.

As I say time and time again, it’s too early to tell either way.

You guys seem certain though so I’ll leave my argument there, saying that I’m far from certain how this will play out anywhere.

Its the idea that Boris pushed but it does tie into his idea about ploughing on and taking it on the chin so not far off.
The problem with herd immunity is we dont know how long it lasts. Theres 2 other common forms of Corona that gives us the cold and that immunity lasts less than a year.

 

[Skills]

Its the idea that Boris pushed but it does tie into his idea about ploughing on and taking it on the chin so not far off.
The problem with herd immunity is we dont know how long it lasts. Theres 2 other common forms of Corona that gives us the cold and that immunity lasts less than a year.

And whether this disease gives you any other long term health issues.

 

[Sarni]

Of course it is, if a vaccine comes in say July 2021, lockdowns will have to stop in the next 2 months and then what?

There is a long long time for this to play out, and sadly, lots of people will die.

Every single government in the World lost their chance at a quick “easy” solution by not shutting out China in January.

Lockdowns will not stop in the next two months. They likely won’t stop at all until vaccine is there. I know people are still in denial about this but this is how it will likely play out.

 

[fergieisold]

Lockdowns will not stop in the next two months. They likely won’t stop at all until vaccine is there. I know people are still in denial about this but this is how it will likely play out.

You think like in the UK now we will stay like this until next year? Absolutely no chance. People will just ignore the advice within a few months.

 

[Skills]

Lockdowns will not stop in the next two months. They likely won’t stop at all until vaccine is there. I know people are still in denial about this but this is how it will likely play out.

I can't see full scale lockdowns lastings for that long. Social distancing will still be enforced though - preventing large gatherings/restricting travel and a sophisticated program to test & trace infections.

 

[stepic]

there seems to be a lot of praise for countries testing 50k, 75, 100k people per day. but what this has essentially meant is that these countries have 'stockpiled' the testing kits available on the world market, leaving other countries (admittedly ones who weren't as quick to realise the need, but nonetheless) scrambling around for whatever they can. surely there should be some international pressure for these countries to share these kits around a bit more to countries who aren't able to test effectively, in particular key health workers? stockpiling testing kits is the international equivalent of buying 10 packs of bog roll. yet these countries hoarding are praised for it.

 

[Skills]

You think like in the UK now we will stay like this until next year? Absolutely no chance. People will just ignore the advice within a few months.

I think people are in for a bit of a shock in the next few weeks then. Some of that selfish rebelliousness will get knocked out when people close to them start to get taken ill seriously or worse start dying.

 

[stepic]

Lockdowns will not stop in the next two months. They likely won’t stop at all until vaccine is there. I know people are still in denial about this but this is how it will likely play out.

of course they will. the only point of the lockdowns is to ensure health services are not overwhelmed, that's it. once the first 'peak' is dealt with, the lockdown will slowly be eased.

of course there's every chance we may need anotehr lockdown or two again before a vacinne is released, but again, that will be only when the data indicates issues with ICU capacity.

 

[Skills]

there seems to be a lot of praise for countries testing 50k, 75, 100k people per day. but what this has essentially meant is that these countries have 'stockpiled' the testing kits available on the world market, leaving other countries (admittedly ones who weren't as quick to realise the need, but nonetheless) scrambling around for whatever they can. surely there should be some international pressure for these countries to share these kits around a bit more to countries who aren't able to test effectively, in particular key health workers? stockpiling testing kits is the international equivalent of buying 10 packs of loo roll.

Pretty sure the likes of Germany/USA are manufacturing them in house. And isn't the test itself, just a swab analysed in a lab?

 

[stepic]

Pretty sure the likes of Germany/USA are manufacturing them in house.

it would be interesting to see how many they manufacture themselves, but even still, the point remains i think. particularly within the EU if Germany is essentially testing everyone they can while other EU countries are struggling to even test their health workers.

 

[Sarni]

You think like in the UK now we will stay like this until next year? Absolutely no chance. People will just ignore the advice within a few months.

I can't see full scale lockdowns lastings for that long. Social distancing will still be enforced though - preventing large gatherings/restricting travel and a sophisticated program to test & trace infections.

of course they will. the only point of the lockdowns is to ensure health services are not overwhelmed, that's it. once the first 'peak' is dealt with, the lockdown will slowly be eased.

of course there's every chance we may need anotehr lockdown or two again before a vacinne is released, but again, that will be only when the data indicates issues with ICU capacity.

I'm speaking more from the perspective of my country to be honest. Our health system is overwhelmed with 300 cases per day, we will have no sophisticated programs to test & trace anytime soon and we went into lockdowns while having 10 cases per day. Half of the country think the goal of lockdowns is to bring the count of cases to 0 and remove the virus completely from society. There's no light at the end of this tunnel, we've gone too far into the panic mode. That's why our government is rushing to have election on 10 May, they want to win while they can because country is going to be in so much chaos soon that they won't win ever again.

Western countries may have a hope to at least allow people back on the streets by the end of this year. I would not expect crowds at sports events or concerts or pubs to be opened anytime in the next 12 months though.

 

[Balu]

there seems to be a lot of praise for countries testing 50k, 75, 100k people per day. but what this has essentially meant is that these countries have 'stockpiled' the testing kits available on the world market, leaving other countries (admittedly ones who weren't as quick to realise the need, but nonetheless) scrambling around for whatever they can. surely there should be some international pressure for these countries to share these kits around a bit more to countries who aren't able to test effectively, in particular key health workers? stockpiling testing kits is the international equivalent of buying 10 packs of loo roll.

Isn't the number of tests also limited to the capacity of the laboratories in the country/region? I guess with new and easier test kits developed soon, that might change. In most media reports in Germany the number of possible tests was always linked to what the laboratories can do. The test kits alone are worthless if they end up in an endloss queue before actually being analysed. Maybe there is a possibility to share ressources in labarotires between countries, but I guess that isn't easy to realise and possibly won't give you quick enough results to act swiftly when necessary.

 

[Fully Fledged]

there seems to be a lot of praise for countries testing 50k, 75, 100k people per day. but what this has essentially meant is that these countries have 'stockpiled' the testing kits available on the world market, leaving other countries (admittedly ones who weren't as quick to realise the need, but nonetheless) scrambling around for whatever they can. surely there should be some international pressure for these countries to share these kits around a bit more to countries who aren't able to test effectively, in particular key health workers? stockpiling testing kits is the international equivalent of buying 10 packs of bog roll. yet these countries hoarding are praised for it.

We make the tests in the UK if anybody had the ability to stockpile them it was us but we faffed around saying we need to make sure they work, no test is better than a bad test and everybody else brought them up before testing them to make sure they work. So now we're left with limited tests.

 

[Skills]

it would be interesting to see how many they manufacture themselves, but even still, the point remains i think. particularly within the EU if Germany is essentially testing everyone they can while other EU countries are struggling to even test their health workers.

From what I know, the real bottleneck in the test is the lab capacity to analyse the samples. Unless countries start shipping off the samples to Germany to get them analysed, they won't be able to help. Germany have just been much better than most others to increase lab capacity.

 

[JPRouve]

Isn't the number of tests also limited to the capacity of the laboratories in the country/region? I guess with new and easier test kits developed soon, that might change. In most media reports in Germany the number of possible tests was always linked to what the laboratories can do. The test kits alone are worthless if they end up in an endloss queue before actually being analysed. Maybe there is a possibility to share ressources in labarotires between countries, but I guess that isn't easy to realise and possibly won't give you quick enough results to act swiftly when necessary.

That's exactly the issue. In the case of France the initial problem was the amount of labs with the authorisation to make that type of tests but also the reception of potentially infected people in a safe environment, in town labs. The first point is an administrative failure that has been quickly fixed since but from my point of view the quickness with which the ARS managed to accredit new labs makes me think that it was an unnecessary hurddle in the first place.

 

[11101]

It's the preparation or lack thereof that really anger me. We knew the NHS wasn't prepared and seemed to play a waiting game before we decided to actually bother to do anything.

We could have been a month ahead on so many elements of the planning not just the NHS but as a wider society. It just leads me to believe we were planning on herd immunity with limited lockdown and realised our mistake late with us now playing catchup.

Until/unless the country runs out of ventilators you can't say that with any conviction. So far we are keeping ahead of the pace of the infection in terms of available beds.

 

[JPRouve]

We make the tests in the UK if anybody had the ability to stockpile them it was us but we faffed around saying we need to make sure they work, no test is better than a bad test and everybody else brought them up before testing them to make sure they work. So now we're left with limited tests.

Yup, one of the 19 producers is a Franco-british company that produces the kits in the UK.

 

[Skills]

We make the tests in the UK if anybody had the ability to stockpile them it was us but we faffed around saying we need to make sure they work, no test is better than a bad test and everybody else brought them up before testing them to make sure they work. So now we're left with limited tests.

Sounds awfully familiar

 

[fergieisold]

I think people are in for a bit of a shock in the next few weeks then. Some of that selfish rebelliousness will get knocked out when people close to them start to get taken ill seriously or worse start dying.

While the peak is happening of course but give it a few months the number of cases will be dramatically lower and normal life can start to resume. Will there be a second wave and further restrictions? Very possible I'd say.

 

[spiriticon]

Sweden has 180 deaths which is the highest in Scandinavia and twice the next highest in Denmark (90 deaths)

I'm not sure herd immunity is working out for them right now, and maybe it will in a years time.

But just the thought of a country being willing to throw it's citizens to the wolves strikes the wrong chord with me.

 

[redshaw]

Thought I read somewhere it's the chemicals used in the labs we're short of.

They say they're aiming for mid April to test 20-25k a day

 

[JPRouve]

@kouroux Pape Diouf passed away, he had Covid-19.

 

[Skills]

While the peak is happening of course but give it a few months the number of cases will be dramatically lower and normal life can start to resume. Will there be a second wave and further restrictions? Very possible I'd say.

Yes but the memories of the next month or so will be fresh enough to act as reinforcement. If we have to go into another full scale lockdown, I think it will have been a failure of the system.

But a degree of restrictions/social distancing will need to stay in place for the best part of the year. That includes restriction on travel and mass gatherings. They've got time now to put a lot measures in place and to plan ahead for the exit.

If they can increase their testing capacity to say something like the 1m tests per week Germany are planning they can successfully start testing & tracing cases when the outbreaks begin. You can start testing kids in schools and employees on site every X number of weeks. Program a 'pass certificate' into oyster cards etc so people can only get on public transport if they've been tested in the last X number of weeks. There's loads of things they can do, and thankfully living in the west means we have the technology and capability to put in place things like this. The preventative course of action will be much cheaper than another full lockdown.

 

[Adisa]

You can take what he said in isolation and as preposterously hypocritical as it is, that quote is objectively correct.

It is. He's not wrong but it's got nowt to do with his and America's failings.

 

[fergieisold]

Yes but the memories of the next month or so will be fresh enough to act as reinforcement. If we have to go into another full scale lockdown, I think it will have been a failure of the system.

But a degree of restrictions/social distancing will need to stay in place for the best part of the year. That includes restriction on travel and mass gatherings. They've got time now to put a lot measures in place and to plan ahead for the exit.

If they can increase their testing capacity to say something like the 1m tests per week Germany are planning they can successfully start testing & tracing cases when the outbreaks begin. You can start testing kids in schools and employees on site every X number of weeks. Program a 'pass certificate' into oyster cards etc so people can only get on public transport if they've been tested in the last X number of weeks. There's loads of things they can do, and thankfully living in the west means we have the technology and capability to put in place things like this. The preventative course of action will be much cheaper than another full lockdown.

I really hope the light at the end of the tunnel is being able to go on holiday to France in August! Time will tell.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

Lockdowns will not stop in the next two months. They likely won’t stop at all until vaccine is there. I know people are still in denial about this but this is how it will likely play out.

I think you’re in denial about how impossible that would be.
It’d be anarchy and likely will be in Southern Italy within the next month.
Lockdown for a year is simply not going to happen.

 

[Dancfc]

Never thought i'd watch a Nigel Farage speech and nod in agreement all the way through but he's spot on here.

Dye in the Blue Lagoon for feck sake!

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

Sweden has 180 deaths which is the highest in Scandinavia and twice the next highest in Denmark (90 deaths)

@spiriticon I mean, do we just ignore that we have twice the population of Denmark? And that our worst hit areas (Stockholm & Copenhagen) pretty much follow that pattern?

Should we also ignore that Ireland has locked down yet has 14 deaths per 1,000,000 and Sweden 18 so hardly much difference?

Swiss: 50
France: 54
Belgium: 71

As I said yesterday, all deaths happening now everywhere are from infections before lockdowns and before countries put measures in place. You realise that right?

No-one is throwing people to the wolves ffs. Sweden’s scientists believe the measures we have put in place here are measures that can be maintained for month after month after month to give out health service time to save as many as possible. They do not believe that lockdowns have in anyway proven a longterm solution to save lives, unless you’re prepared to lockdown until a vaccine comes, and well, no-one is locking down for a year, it’s quite simply impossible.

 

[Fully Fledged]

Sounds awfully familiar

Yep, that's been government policy on many things. If we can get away with doing nothing by making doing something sound worse then we are quids in.

 

[Pexbo]

Never thought i'd watch a Nigel Farage speech and nod in agreement all the way through but he's spot on here.

Dye in the Blue Lagoon for feck sake!

I refuse to watch that. Is it as the title suggests? Farage suggesting that we should not be accepting the government telling us to socially isolate at home?