i don't think anyone is suggesting that it was a progression. they clearly changed tact completely once they added in the newer data from Italy. clearly their initial modelling was incorrect, which lead to their original herd tactic.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
i don't think anyone is suggesting that it was a progression. they clearly changed tact completely once they added in the newer data from Italy. clearly their initial modelling was incorrect, which lead to their original herd tactic.
Where did they even get that initial modelling? Even the vast majority of people here knew it was nonsensical and would result in a massive death toll, yet they insisted it was based on the 'science' before doing a complete about turn just days later.
Yeah potentially it's challenging but they have the time to do it. I'm not a programmer or anything, but it just just seems like an additional validation
i.e. does this person have the correct amount of credit to get on the tube / if yes / does this person have a pass certificate / if yes proceed or if not then deny entry.
Programming unlimited transfers within an hour is definitely a more challenging logic than that.
The logic is actually very simply. A simple code could be with one while loop. The logic you posted in the second setence actually requires three else-if statements which is longer. I think the issue isn't really the logic, but rather how the underlying data is stored but I'm only making a total guess there. It isn't clear whether they have the means to simply add another check to all ticket types in the way you describe - logically this is simple but it all depends how they've written their codes. Oh well. It is a good idea though, one which I hope they do consider if it is at all possible.
It's not the maths, that part is extremely simple, it will be the vast bulk of code around it dealing with a ton of other issues relating to actually implementing it.
Boris said that?
That may well be a lesson to be learned when this is over, but somehow I doubt it, government priorities change and after the immediate crisis is passed laws of supply and demand will return... if they are not already!
He wouldn't get elected here, if that's what you're insinuating.
There is no point comparing countries that are early into their lockdown(Ireland) with Sweden.
Only if you take what he said massively out of context: https://fullfact.org/health/boris-johnson-coronavirus-this-morning/
Fascinating stuff! Cheers.
Yes that s a good idea, some richer countries might do that, but in any case the market price of second ventilators will have crashed with the glut of such machines, so you may be able to get some extra at a reduced price.
Ventilators aside, I suspect life will never return to normal in most countries and lots of things will emerge with either new ways of doing things, or cheaper versions of existing items, or with new markets to exploit, its " an ill wind..." etc.
With due respect you can make the same claim about most politicians in all countries. That’s why Hancock in the U.K. for example has medical experts to call upon. To reinforce my point the current Shadow Health Secretary could be said never to have had a real job in his life unless you count being a party worker much the same as many in the Conservative party. It has always been thus and will remain so. After all folks go into politics because they have a particular view of the world. Nothing at all to do with how intelligent or equipped they are.
Hancock may be a sensible guy but the quality of politicians have gone down massively. There was the fireplace salesman who thought he was a soldier and tried to put guns on farm tractors. He was called Private Pike by many.
No wonder the country has gone to the dogs.
Totally agree but that’s been going on for donkeys years and not only in the U.K. The days of having giants seem long gone now we are prepared to have pygmies as long as they parrot the soundbites we like. Pathetic really. Then again we probably get the politicians we deserve.
Well if Sweden isn't locking down then what predictions can we make about their death rate 2-3 weeks from now? It will most likely be higher than what it would be if they had locked down earlier?
I agree than lockdown is not a long term solution, and it cannot be, but it is best used early to regain control of things (in my opinion). Letting the virus pass through the population in its early stages is a high risk strategy because this virus can go from 0 to 100mph in a matter of a few days. Once it reaches 100 mph it is too late because the healthcare system will have collapsed and many will die, wheres they may have survived otherwise if they had access to a ventilator.
The best strategy is the one the pushes the health system to its absolute max without breaking it, I agree with that scientific thought. But to execute that requires such exact calculations and predictions and we don't really have a lot of data at the moment to do that sort of modelling with ultra high accuracy.
Remember that we are gambling with human lives here, not money, not gold, not stocks and shares. We can't just go 'all in', we have to err on the safe side of science because human lives. One small feck up in calculation could mean an extra 100,000 people dead.
It won't be a choice, it will be necessity. If you loosen things up and people start getting infected again, panic will be immense. Again, I'm speaking from Poland perspective. There are countries better prepared to deal with outbreak who may start to open up things this year. Many won't though. We will regain some freedom but it will be many months before everything is back to normal. Maybe even years.
I know it's a different topic but what has happened to the world statesmen that we used to have?
It's also these kind of times that we need them.
I saw this when waking up, it broke my heart. This fecking disease is the apocalypse.
I think half of the death toll is due to the health care system not being able to cope.
Which Diouf is this?
Former Marseille president.
Deaths in Sweden rising rapidly. Stupid, unnecessary, yet completely predictable. Probably one of the last countries were I would have expected to see this, but there it is.
Saw Larry David trending and my heart dropped. Thankfully, he's just released a great video:
Hhaha, no I wasn’t. I’m English so I know he wouldn’t even make it to party leadership.
Ahhhhh.
@Regulus Arcturus Black compare Sweden's trajectory with Portugal. Similar population, and Portugal has a culture a lot more similar to Spain and Italy (this was alluded by someone as relevant, don't remember if it was you)...
You have quite fewer cases (less testing) yet your deaths seem to be climbing more rapidly and getting away from our numbers. I find that very concerning.
You have quite fewer cases (less testing) yet your deaths seem to be climbing more rapidly and getting away from our numbers. I find that very concerning.
I actually think we should make comparisons. There's a lot to be learned and strategies could be fine tuned, especially for any potential 'second wave'
True I do see your point and he wouldn't be using anywhere near as much as I or yourself has. Oh and yeah the pipe to water bottle urgh.
I can't wait for Boris to say we'll fight the virus on the beaches.Shush you! I was looking forward to seeing this on my streets, Blitz spirit and all that!
4,324 new cases
563 deaths
The acceleration is scary over the past couple of days
It's when it happens to someone we ' know ' that the full severity of what's happening really hits home.
Other way round for us - we desperately want to be able to go to the UK to see our first grandchild while she's still a baby. Last saw her in early February, when she was five months old, but it feels much, much longer than that and don't want to even think that it could be another three or four months before it's sufficiently safe for us to go there or for our daughter and son-in-law to come here.
The sad thing is that this has hit the world when the collective leadership is at an all time low . There should have been a better global response to this but thanks to people like Trump it was made to seem like a joke . Now the world will see millions die . What is crazy is that even now some people with good following keep writing and talking about flu and diarrhea deaths to compare with this
Yep that sounds very likely and I'm sure social pressures could be put on company bosses so they look like cnuts if they don't let their staff continue working from home while it calms now.
Another issue with that idea is that I'm not sure what percentage of tube journeys are paid for with Oyster cards tbh- many people use their bank card now and others buy physical tickets still.
UK
+4,324 cases
+563 deaths
Here we go peeps. Hold on tight.
+4,324 cases
+563 deaths
Here we go peeps. Hold on tight.
It's basically a double blow with more and more people becoming symptomatic and the hospitals filling up . This is exactly what happened in Italy. We were told in our hospital that peak is expected around Easter so scary to think what that would be like
Remember the lag, we’ll know much more in 10 days.
USA is going to cross 200k cases today.. might even be the first to hit 1k deaths/day ..
What I mean is that you can’t compare how well lockdowns are working by countries that put them in a week ago by comparing deaths today.
Obviously.