2000 Swedish doctors and scientists signed a petition saying Sweden path was leading them to catastrophe? Youre being very loose with the way you frame your points imo.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
Edited that for you.
It's a shame that farage is high-risk.
Stay safe Nige.
Stay safe Nige.
Following on from what we were discussing yesterday @noodlehair, I get the distinct impression that a huge number of posters on here actively want the Swedish model to fail.
That’s absolutely nuts, surely we should all want to see that common sense social distancing, protecting your elderly and excellent sick leave changes (14 paid with no sick note) can work.
If Sweden’s model doesn’t work, we’re fecked.
That’s absolutely nuts, surely we should all want to see that common sense social distancing, protecting your elderly and excellent sick leave changes (14 paid with no sick note) can work.
If Sweden’s model doesn’t work, we’re fecked.
I want to add that Norway has only 40 deaths so far. We have been at 1/5 of sweden approximately, and 1/2 nr. of people. Main difference might be that Norway has been among the best in the world at testing. We have tested 2% of the population so far, approx 100,000 people.
We will see this and next week how sweden does. Myself, I have been critical to the ski resorts in Åre being open so long. The ski resorts in Italy and Austria was how we imported nearly 1000 infected to Norway and had to shut down. So all the people that went to Åre skiresorts might have been infected and taken this around sweden. Hopefully they self isolated. Other than that, Sweden will propably get this under control at some time I think. But Stockholm seems to be in for a bit of trouble. Good that you are starting to test more. It is really helpful to use for choosing how to deal with this and plan ahead.
No Scandinavian countries will be the ones hit hard by this though. We will see in a month that nations from other parts of the world, like India, Brazil, Philipines, US, Africa nations etc wil be the places that gets really really bad.
In Europe I am a lot more worried about UK, Spain and Italy than Scandinavia. We will pull through due to our cultures and internal local cooperation among people. There are idiots here as well, but we do not have as large citys.
@cyberman link pal?
My points aren’t loose, I’m simply repeating the information given out by the Swedish Health Ministry daily.
Agreed. This public shaming seems to be a UK thing though. I haven't seen this here in Germany unless people literally go it in groups or have parties. Although the rules might be stricter in the UK (we don't have that excercise once a day thing). I usually go out twice a day and from what I can see people are following the social distancing guidelines. There is a reason governments avoid using the word lockdown and call it restrictions or something.
Some more positive news if the estimates are correct. Would put the true CFR closer to 0.1 %
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...urope-estimates-and-NPI-impact-30-03-2020.pdf
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...urope-estimates-and-NPI-impact-30-03-2020.pdf
Oh Norway has been miles better at testing no doubt. But the deaths show us nothing so far due to the lag.
We have zero idea how many infected were in Norway or Sweden 2 weeks ago so it’s very difficult to compare the data.
Dyeing that pond was a fecking joke of a decision but the rozzers probably don't have that much to do at the moment so shaming selfish twats is on their list. Farage can feck off just for being Farage.
I can't see lockdown lasting longer than June here (UK). Social distancing rules are most likely to continue up until autumn.
Hard to compare, yes. agree with you there! Although as I said, skiresorts were our main problem. The ones in Austria and Italy. So large gatherings is a key factor in many places. Like Bergamo and the football match. So in my opinion, we will not know in Sweden yet due to the ones that travelled to/from Åre, and also those who went out partying at pubs in various cities that might have started new chains of infections at exponential rates for a while until the more strict measures were taken.
Hopefully, it was not too bad, but as you say, due to the lag it will just be guessing. My guess though, is the late approach and less strict measures will lead to more deaths in the short term at least.
Then we can debate all day what is the correct approach. The truth is, nobody knows yet. All comes down to how fast medicines and vaccines will come, when antibody test will start, what they will tell us, how immunity develops and how the people of a nation can behave, how the capacity of the Health Care system is etcetera etcetera....
This is an excellent point. I located an old paper here and quickly looking at it in Fig. 3, yes, droplets can evapourate very quickly. I also found another paper here with similar conclusions. It is important to stress that these results appear to be for pure liquid water (I'd need to check more closely).
With regards to droplets with viruses I found one study here. According to this paper:
The fig.8 is shown here:
I'm not really sure what they mean by "droplet nuclei". The paper above seems to be based on a model, with a handful of data compared to experimental data, but it does give a good idea of some of the mechanisms involved. Generally with regards to size, you need to be careful. Droplets less than a particular scale of the air flow (called the Kolmogorov scale) can be considered to be "small". Droplets larger than this size are called "finite sized" and have more complicated and poorly understand dispersion mechanisms. So it isn't really the absolute droplet size you consider but a size ratio.
Hope that helps.
EDIT:
So according to this website, droplet nuceli:
So it seems what happens is that there is a droplet with some solid content, the liquid content is evapourated, leaving a solid particle core. I'm guessing the solid particle is very small and if it is, then yes, the particles could well be suspended for considerable time.
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Yeah, mine were like that from aggressive hand washing. Hand cream helped hugely - as well as lockdown, meaning that I haven't been going outside as much.
Sweden also has over twice the population that Ireland does though, which skews per capita stats:
The reality is that it's too early to draw any conclusions about these countries yet.
Agreed.
Amen.
That's a different point altogether, surely. What Trump said was that they went for the herd immunity approach to begin with, saw some bad signs, and reversed quickly. That's as close to a statement of fact as you'll get from Trump. It is whataboutism, but what part of that is untrue?
We don't know the precise message that was delivered to Boris but his portrayal of it, and the complete policy reversal, are right there for everyone to see. Maybe he misconstrued the message or maybe he was poorly advised, but the initial approach to "take it on the chin, take it all at once and allow it to move through the population" [in an uncontrolled manner] has and never will be an appropriate policy. It would have overwhelmed the healthcare system and there's no shortage of evidence now to demonstrate that, but the clearest evidence is the speed at which they moved away from that idea and implemented policies in opposition to it.
Whether a policy that allows the population to get infected at a controlled rate will be implemented is up in the air. As you've said yourself, there's at least an element of faith that leads you to believe that - you want it to be true because if it doesn't work, the alternatives of mass civil unrest or an unmanageable spread are too dark to imagine. I agree with you that it's a possible route, at least.
But that doesn't change the fact that what the UK did in the early stages, under that broad header of "herd immunity", immediately sent out some dangerous signals and the key experts advised something drastically different in response.
Fancy a £100 bet on that?
This is an excellent point. I located an old paper here and quickly looking at it in Fig. 3, yes, droplets can evapourate very quickly. I also found another paper here with similar conclusions. It is important to stress that these results appear to be for pure liquid water (I'd need to check more closely).
With regards to droplets with viruses I found one study here. According to this paper:
The fig.8 is shown here:
I'm not really sure what they mean by "droplet nuclei". The paper above seems to be based on a model, with a handful of data compared to experimental data, but it does give a good idea of some of the mechanisms involved. Generally with regards to size, you need to be careful. Droplets less than a particular scale of the air flow (called the Kolmogorov scale) can be considered to be "small". Droplets larger than this size are called "finite sized" and have more complicated and poorly understand dispersion mechanisms. So it isn't really the absolute droplet size you consider but a size ratio.
Hope that helps.
Some good information. The droplet nuclei is likely referring to what we call in cloud physics the 'Cloud Condensation Nuclei'. A liquid droplet has to form on a substrate. So the next question is what happens when the droplets evaporate leaving the virus? Is it instantly destroyed or is it aerosolised?!
edit - thinking about it I'm not sure you'd even need a nuclei for coughed droplets.
Yeah it seems that way. I have no idea about whether the virus itself is destroyed or not, I would need to do some more reading. I've looked at cloud physics before, what part of cloud physics did you study?
It's not just ventilators though, that's just one problem (albeit one which could be huge). Within the health department there's plenty of issues but I'm talking across every ministerial department.
I've no idea if it's ministerial or civil service so I'm not attributing blame but there's going to have to be a detailed review of why the delay in preparation. On the positive side I'd hope part of that is putting in place plans for next time something like this happens.
I wonder if there's anything that lists the qualifications / working experience of these people?
Yes, there is, at least for some of them listed via the expert groups here:
https://www.gov.uk/government/groups/new-and-emerging-respiratory-virus-threats-advisory-group
https://assets.publishing.service.g...6/NERVTAG_Member_Bios_update_November2018.pdf
One thing that is not stressed enough and not mentioned often is regular operations and procedures like transplantations, people in need of intensive care and others in need of emergency admission because of other incidents or diseases that are not related to corona. We see more and more items and hospital structures locked down and patients sent back for home treatment who are in dire need of hospital care.
What China did I haven't seen so far implemented even in countries with big resources - you need to isolate the infected in separate structures and not use the resources of other hospitals that are overloaded at this time of the year anyway..
It depends if you believe they were going for a Swedish model or just a “feck it” model doesn’t it?
Now I think Boris is a tit and I despise the conservatives but I don’t think they were going for a feck it model, I think they were always following the advice of their experts and it was constantly updated.
Perhaps they should just furlough the entire cabinet right now and put these people in their place.
That's a convenient belief given your position, but I'm not sure how you line it up with the evidence.
How do you align the statement of "take it on the chin, take it all at once and allow it to move through the population" with the subsequent actions? Are we taking it all at once and allowing it to move through the population, or are we taking measures to slow the spread as much as possible? They aren't progressions along a scale, they're opposing goals.
@fergieisold
From this paper:
There is also a review here which I have not read but its review is given below:
From this paper:
There is also a review here which I have not read but its review is given below:
They put dye in it every year. I don't see the issue here?
That's going to be impossible on public transport in London- everyone saw the pics of the tube. God knows how they alleviate that without multi-billion investment.
Good outlook of the whole situation and summary of the virus by Sucharit Bhakdi - leading specialist and professor in Microbiology and Immunology in Germany and Mainz institute.
In Brazil, the first coronavirus case in an indigenous community has been reported. A 19-year-old woman from the Kokama indigenous group in Amazonas state has contracted the virus, health minister Francisco Ferreira Azevedo said. There are fears that the pandemic could hit indigenous communities particularly hard as they often live in remote locations without access to healthcare
feck, I never even thought about the indigenous groups across places like South America. Aren't they especially vulnerable because we at least have some built in resistance to similar coronaviruses through the common cold?
feck, I never even thought about the indigenous groups across places like South America. Aren't they especially vulnerable because we at least have some built in resistance to similar coronaviruses through the common cold?
It will be nearly impossible. A combination of driver shortages due to illness leading to fewer trains and more stations which are closed as well as an increasing number of people. I think the advice will be to stay at home but the "lockdown" will be over - so it would be a lockdown in all but name. People will still go out walking and sitting in parks, but this will not put as much a strain on the NHS compared to allowing non-keyworkers to travel to work. Once the NHS overcomes the increase due to people walking and going to parks, they could gradually introduce some non-keyworkers, but again, via a staggered release.
I also think wishful thinking played a role. I think at the start they still had this vague hope that Chinese numbers on the proportion requiring ICU care and, in particular, intubation were high. Perhaps even an assumption that the number of mild/symptomless people in China was much higher than even China could test.
It was only as things started to hit Italy, that the models showing what happens as a particularly specialised portion of health care gets overwhelmed, that things really heated up.
Even tiny looking changes in the timing and the specifics of the epidemic sent the models through the "careful preparation and handling, public information and social distancing" threshold into overload.
So they may be guilty of wishful thinking, but I doubt even Boris ever thought "1% of the population will die - let's bump that higher because the NHS won't function and say a million people then, but mostly they're economically inactive anyway - well that's ok then, let it rip."
Absolutely love the work me and my colleagues are doing right now. We're on phone vigilance, representing the health authority, signaling people for testing, monitoring positive cases for symptoms, etc.
Most people are incredibly nice in the phone and I love the relief they feel whenever we communicate a negative result in the test or lift an enforced quarantine.
As things get worse I'll probably be moved to the ER or Covid hospital and be replaced by medicine students.
Most people are incredibly nice in the phone and I love the relief they feel whenever we communicate a negative result in the test or lift an enforced quarantine.
As things get worse I'll probably be moved to the ER or Covid hospital and be replaced by medicine students.
I've mentioned potentially programming a certificate into oyster cards, where you can only get on public transport if you have been tested in the last month or whatever suitable number of weeks. It sounds like a pain in the arse, but it could help at reducing them from being a massive a hotspot for infection.
The "Blue Lagoon" is a pool in a disused quarry that has a pH level equivalent to bleach. The locals have been putting dye in it for years to disuade morons from jumping in and doing damage to themselves, it's not some new draconian police state measure
The software programming for Oyster cards is complex. I believe it took something like a year or whatever because of complexity to code the necessary changes to go from hopper fare of only allowed to use two buses in an hour, to hopper fare of "infinite" number of buses in an hour (source):
Therefore it may be an easy task to do what you suggest, but it may also be a nightmare tasks, who knows. Other railway smart cards may also use different systems.
This is what I touched upon in my criticisms of Matt Hancock. He's not Secretary of State for Health and Social Care because he's an exceptional candidate for the role and up to it's demands. Like the rest of the cabinet, he's a pro-Brexit grifter who was put in charge of the NHS to help manage it's incremental privatisation and facilitate giving US Pharma access to it upon exit from the EU.
Long winded analogy coming up:
It's like a corporation that has decided that it has reached it's growth potential has to adopt a lean business model to minimise expenditure to maximise profits and appease shareholders so they employ a specialist whose main objective is to identify how to restructure the business, figuring which teams can be made redundant and where the budgets are best cut. They're happy with the amount of business they are doing and they'd also be happy doing less business as long as the profits are maintained.
All of a sudden the market changes due to unforeseen circumstances and there is a huge uptick in demand, proving the growth potential estimates were way off. A good operations manager would cease upon the opportunity and have the talent and dynamism to regroup and identify how the business needs to expand, ploughing money into research and development and boost production to reach the demands in order to make sure the company capitalises on the oportunity.
Instead they are stuck with the guy who doesn't have the first clue how to do any of this, all he knows is how to cut fat and streamline existing operations without effecting profits. In real world, a decision would quickly be made to replace him with someone who has the knowledge and talent to oversee the new scenario and ensure the business is being run suitably to the new scenario.
Instead we have Matt Hancock with his philosophy, politics and economics degree leading the NHS through arguably the greatest challenge it has faced since it's inception and absolutely zero suggestion he is going to be replaced with someone with the knowledge or experience to make the difficult decisions required of the role.
Sounds like you're doing good work, Arruda. Much respect to all the healthcare workers - I can't do anything to help now as I don't speak the language well enough to be of any use (and I'd also have to do a clinical update), but I can well imagine what it's like for those in the thick of it.