Yeah I got that, your colleague got the point across in a respectful manner.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
No but I think it's slightly unfair to say someone should either take the time to learn something new or not make a comment on it at all, as was suggested on the previous page. Arguing about things is a way of learning, not just a way of showing off what you already know. Plus most of the people posting here don't really know much anyway. Some just know slightly more than others, often simply because they've become engaged in the conversation earlier.
@VintageWhatnots post is what led to him learning more about why they use that particular graph, which is a good thing. Don't see how him not commenting would have been preferable.
Evidently something can be done, in two minutes, you've gone some way to explain the graph, and it's purpose.
Even just a sentence stating that it isn't linear, would help, so people don't think it is. Anything to draw attention to the fact that there is more to the graph than first meets the eye. I just think people have to be very careful sharing information, particularly diagrams, that on first glance look straight forward, but actual they're is more to it.
The issue in a nutshell. If COVID-19 behaved like conventional influenza for example, you might be able to take the risk. However, it is highly contagious and there are even cases where the infected person/s seem to have picked it up from seats, to give one frightening example. We don't know enough yet about transmission processes. Those are only 2 points out of a number that could be made.
Sweden seems to be taking a fairly relaxed attitude - no wonder their deaths are higher than those of Australia or Israel even given differences in geography, etc. Again there are questions we can raise about real deal lockdowns but from what I have seen in the news, the govt in Sweden seems irresponsible in its attitude. If anybody lives in Sweden could they please repond?
I think @Regulus Arcturus Black was living in Sweden and was at least somewhat in favour of their response so he might have a counter-argument.
Well said. I commend your effort in educating the plebs on here.
The issue with herd immunity is that a country like Italy has 100k reported cases which represents 0.17% of their population. Even if we assume that cases are under reported and are 5 times that, it's still well below 1% of population. You need at least 60% to be able to talk about herd immunity at all, and maybe even 70%+. It'll be 2023 or something before that happens and we can open Europe for travel etc., considering many countries are in lockdowns and are only getting < 500 cases per day.
I think there's no chance of opening things up before vaccine is found. Even if it means lockdown continues for 12+ months from now. Obviously you will have population resist to it so I'm not sure how this gets resolved. I'm not scared of the virus personally nearly as much as I'm scared about consequences of what is happening now.
I think there's no chance of opening things up before vaccine is found. Even if it means lockdown continues for 12+ months from now. Obviously you will have population resist to it so I'm not sure how this gets resolved. I'm not scared of the virus personally nearly as much as I'm scared about consequences of what is happening now.
Thank you. I'd like to learn more. Hopefully he will post about it again.
I'm not so sure.
I mean South Korea have thus far avoided a severe lockdown at all, let alone been unable to lift it. It's not like it's literally impossible to manage without lockdown.
Obviously countries coming out of lockdown will still have a lot of restrictions in place but with a lot of testing and very targeted measures it should be possible for many of them to get things moving again. Which is the point the WHO have been re-emphasising recently, that lockdown is a second chance to attack the virus with testing and tracing.
More to the point, the more severe lockdowns would be literally impossible to keep in place for 12 months. Aside from the unprecedented damage to the world economy that would cause, social unrest and non-compliance would reach breaking point long before the 12 months was up. Keeping things shut down for 12 months is much more unrealistic than finding a way to start opening things up again, I think.
Well @ryansgirl, the first thing to understand is that all of the deaths happening now are from cases that happened three weeks ago before any country was locking down, in that sense these were inevitable deaths even if we locked down when England or France did.
The Swedish experts are doing a press conference every day at 2 PM and they seem still fairly happy that the responses they put in place are having an effect because the amount of people going into ICU every day is a very stable level and has been now for quite a while.
For all countries, we will only really know how well they are doing in another two weeks or so, but trust me on the fact that Sweden does not have such a lax attitude as many people think; we have put lots and lots of precautions in place and everyone I know and see everywhere is social distancing.
Add to that we have the most single households in the world at almost 50%, we have the youngest moving out age in the world at just over 18 and people very rarely live in large families with grandparents etc. This means Sweden is a little bit more unique compared to France Spain Italy and even the UK.
Denmark for its population has a similar number of deaths to Sweden and they locked down so that should show you that you can’t draw any conclusions at this point.
Comparing to Australia is daft considering when Australia were getting it’s first 10 deaths. The next couple of weeks will be very telling in Aus.
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I previously said learn first or don’t comment but that was directed at people posting ‘safety’ advice that’s conflicting or just reading something once and running to this thread and stating as fact without even checking if there’s any truth to what they read
Are there any figures on length of time between diagnosis and death? We've all seen reports of unfortunates who've gone from fine to dead in two days but it appears that most victims are in critical for a number of days before succumbing. Is there enough data yet for any meaningful figures?
In the UK it seems pretty pointless because it seems they're only testing once they're in hospital so im guessing there's no accurate way of knowing.
I'm not sure Korean ways of dealing with this would be possible to replicate in Europe. Certainly not in Poland.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/#days
I saw the same figures in medical papers but it was a couple of weeks ago so I don't know if they are still relevant, it's supposed to be a dozen of days for older people and it varies greatly for the younger ones from a handful of days to more than a month.
9 days from symptom onset to death. This has increased slightly, it was 8 days last week, possibly as the weaker patients died quickly early on. Also remember the more advanced age of Italian victims.
Section 7:
https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-COVID-2019_26_marzo_eng.pdf
8 days means each patient is a massive use of resources if they are critical the whole time. That's got to be really hard on the families too.
8 days is from symptom onset, ascertained when they are admitted to hospital and diagnosed (they're not generally being tested until then). Hospitalisation to death is 5 days.
@Grinner The Lancet explains the study that I read, if you are interested.
Unfortunately I've been checking on my boss who's late 60s as he's had symptoms. Couldn't contact him today and just got a call from another colleague to say he's being taken to hospital. 87% sats, temperature. They say his chest sounds ok though which is odd.
I agree no-one likes a show off or know it all. Or just a rude idiot.
Nope. Not really. The virus caused people to get sick but an overwhelmed health service caused a higher mortality rate than you see in the early stages of the epidemic, before they had to start rationing access to ITU beds.
Sorry to hear that. Those are very low sats. Hope he’s ok.
The stats regarding male:female deaths (2 fig2) are startling.
Reading now. Out of interest, are doctors able to tell that hypertension exists when a patient is admitted, or is it all down to what's in their medical record?
The best way to keep death rate low in the initial weeks of the epidemic is by really aggressive, extensive community testing. That way you pick up all the milder cases. Theoretically, that information can also be used in contact tracing to limit community spread. Unfortunately, it seems not many countries have the resources to test as extensively as Germany, South Korea or Norway. I know Ireland wanted to take the same approach but almost immediately ran out of testing capacity so had to drastically cut back on eligibility for testing.
Once the epidemic gets properly established, the more ITU beds per capita the lower the mortality rate. Although only 50% of people admitted to ITU will survive. So the impact of those extra beds is limited.
It is but remember it's Italy. More men are catching it as they refuse to stay indoors (there are plenty of old men walking up and down my street all day pretending to go grocery shopping) and dying from it as they smoke like chimneys.
just been on the bbc that 393 people have sadly died in the uk in the last 24 hrs . Very sad news and a significant rise from yesterday . Hopefully this is not the start of a steep increase in numbers . The report didnt say what the new confirmed cases were .
Medical record. You can’t diagnose hypertension based on blood pressure when a patient first presents. It’s something that is monitored/treated over a period of time.
Aye, that's different. If we're posting information we should do our best to make sure it's legit. Same thing with whatsapp rumours, there's no need to blindly spread nonsense just because it happens to have come across your path, especially if you're clued in enough to really know better.
If someone genuinely doesn't know or understand something though then that's alright. None of us are experts and a lot of people are gonna be worried enough by all of this without people impolitely jumping on them for not grasping how a log scale graph works or whatever.
Are lots of people still flouting the regulations then @11101 ? I thought that by now the whole of Italy is very tightly locked down
393 dead today in UK 
393 dead today in UK
Wasn't today the day they included people who passed while at home
Yes I believe so.
No, I wouldn't have thought so either. Ireland explicitly said they were trying to follow the South Korean model but still had to go into lockdown anyway, as it's not quite replicable here. Most countries will be trying to find a middle ground, I guess.