Another way is when the person speak, droplets come out of his mouth and these are so tiny that you wont even realise and inhale them. So if you are saying not even talking to people who are asymptomatic and keeping 6 feet distance with everyone all the time, it feels like an impossible task.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
No wonder it is controlled in China. He is waiting for the right time to save us all.
You're doing nothing wrong. My mum is a fairly senior nurse in the NHS and just got back from Thailand herself. She was planning to isolate of her own accord but her bosses have told her to be in on Monday!
I have not actually but I will do it ASAP.
I think there is gonna be a second wave simply cause there is no way that we are gonna send the number of infections to 0, and that the lockdown(s) are not going to last until the vaccine gets ready. So, almost surely (IMO) there is going to be a second (and likely a third wave). Would it be really peaked ways, or more like uniform distributions is another matter, though with lockdowns happening, probably the infections are gonna come in waves (lockdown gets relaxed, all good for a month or two, then the number increases, need again to take some measures and so on).
Historically, infectious diseases have come in waves. The Spanish flu had a second and a third wave (with the second one being the most lethal). Cholera came and went multiple times. Even the deadly plague in the end of medieval didn't kill half of the European population in a go, but it took 4-5 years to do so. Now, the swine flu didn't have a second wave, but it needs to be said, that there was a vaccine for it (for a long time actually), and a lot of people got infected in the first place. When it comes to covid-19, there won't be a herd immunity if most of the people stay at home and don't catch in the first place. And if most people are vulnerable, then the infections are gonna explode when the constrains are gonna be relaxed. Finally, most of the experts seem to agree that likely the virus is gonna be with us (until at least a vaccine will be available) and is gonna be endemic in the population. So it is not that in a few weeks, it is gonna leave forever, that looks like wishful thinking more than anything.
I am not an expert on this, so I might be totally wrong.
From the tenth dead
The US figures have me convinced the Chinese figures are bullshit.
Remember China did not put in any measure until well over a month after the outbreak. 5m people left Wuhan in the days before the closure.
Remember China did not put in any measure until well over a month after the outbreak. 5m people left Wuhan in the days before the closure.
And when they did they were deemed inhumane in the eyes of the public. People were going crazy after the video of a couple being shoved on a back of a pickup truck and the woman screaming like crazy went viral.
What do we do? We wait and wait and wait until it's too late.
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There were only 400 confirmed cases in Wuhan when the lockdown happened. When italy got into lockdown (nowhere as strong as the Hubei lockdown) there were 9000 confirmed cases.
I agree that China numbers might be wrong (they probably are), but also, they acted faster and with more urgency than US/EU/UK.
You've not helped yourself here.The minute I saw your post I thought , hang on, wasn't this the person who ...….
Some back-of-a-fag-packet maths:
The UK started lockdown on Tuesday 24 March.
If you assume that there's a 14 day lag for new measures to be reflected in reality and that the number of cases will keep rising by about 30% per day, the peak for positive test results would be on 11 April.
Since the incubation period is about 2 weeks, hospitals could then be under the most strain on around 25 April.
If the lockdown is successful and the cases rate increase then drops to 15% per day, it'll take till around 26 April to reach the numbers required for herd immunity (regardless of whether that's the aim or not, and assuming the real cases are 20 times as numerous as tested cases). Then another 2 weeks before those people can all leave self-isolation. So the UK could potentially begin to lift measures on 10 May.
If the country can somehow keep it together for 7 weeks, the nationwide crisis could be over as soon as then. Unfortunately, we'd be looking at over 1 million dead (assuming a 2% CFR, plus all those who can't get treated because of the NHS being over capacity). That's absolutely horrific, but I'm not sure if there's any way around it given what's happened up until now.
The UK started lockdown on Tuesday 24 March.
If you assume that there's a 14 day lag for new measures to be reflected in reality and that the number of cases will keep rising by about 30% per day, the peak for positive test results would be on 11 April.
Since the incubation period is about 2 weeks, hospitals could then be under the most strain on around 25 April.
If the lockdown is successful and the cases rate increase then drops to 15% per day, it'll take till around 26 April to reach the numbers required for herd immunity (regardless of whether that's the aim or not, and assuming the real cases are 20 times as numerous as tested cases). Then another 2 weeks before those people can all leave self-isolation. So the UK could potentially begin to lift measures on 10 May.
If the country can somehow keep it together for 7 weeks, the nationwide crisis could be over as soon as then. Unfortunately, we'd be looking at over 1 million dead (assuming a 2% CFR, plus all those who can't get treated because of the NHS being over capacity). That's absolutely horrific, but I'm not sure if there's any way around it given what's happened up until now.
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Slight difference: She was talking about actively ignoring advice and new laws. As shown above from UK Government website, I've done nothing of the sort.
The minute I saw your post I thought , hang on, wasn't this the person who ...….
How the Pandemic Will End
The U.S. may end up with the worst COVID-19 outbreak in the industrialized world. This is how it’s going to play out.
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/how-will-coronavirus-end/608719/
The U.S. may end up with the worst COVID-19 outbreak in the industrialized world. This is how it’s going to play out.
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/how-will-coronavirus-end/608719/
Herd immunity for many diseases requires 70-95% of the population to have the disease or be vaccinated. Viruses tend to require less but even flu, where 40-50% is the estimate required to reach the HIL threshold, hasn't been achieved yet. Covid-19 is estimated to need a HIL of 50-80% which will kill millions unless we slow infections down and achieve this level with a vaccine (assuming we can develop one).
I've factored all of that in.
So no possibility of a positive outcome...
We can't cage the wind, unfortunately. Which isn't to say we should stop trying. But we're ultimately going to lose.
EDIT: though I suppose it comes down to how accurate the CFR is.
A CFR of 2% is based on 2 dead out of 100 positive test results. But if the actual number of infected people is 2000, a more accurate CFR would be 0.1%. Extrapolating that over the whole population of the UK would mean "only" 70,000+ dead.
But I'm not sure it's possible to be accurate about your own inaccuracy in this way. Like I say, it's all just back-of-a-fag-packet stuff.
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Not necessarily. Lockdown followed by relaxation of constraints (with maybe another lockdown in a few months when things get worse). A bit like China and South Korea are doing.
I don't know why you insist on this. South Korea and China are having double-digit new cases and single-digit new deaths per day. In each of them, there isn't even a lockdown (except in Wuhan that now is almost being lifted). S. Korea didn't have a lockdown at all.
Why we should not try to emulate them, instead of accepting that millions are going to die?
You haven’t included potentially asymtomatic cases in this, or indeed the percentage population that have already had the disease.
South Korea and Germany have tested widely and the percentage is between 0.4 and 1.4%, and that is without testing the entire population.
There is no way a million people will die in the U.K.
As for second and third waves, the comparisons with things like the Spanish flu don’t have any bearing in 2020.
Almost every country will be more readily prepared for a second or third wave. This won’t just come in and devastate again in the same way.
Lessons will have to be learned for the future and thousands will die, but I really feel people are making calculations and statements in this thread that are overly pessimistic and outlandish. Probably because we are scared.
But try and be more realistic and remember those who are more tense and afraid that are reading this thread.
There are reasons to be positive and we should include those in our speculations on death figures and the danger of the virus.
Any reason for the 2% CFR?
Also, surely after a week or two lockdown, 30% per day new cases will be very high?
Back from Asia just popping out to the shops for a snack.
Oblivious dickheads will literally be the death of us.
Oblivious dickheads will literally be the death of us.
A low estimate for the number of cases in the UK is 300,000 (which is about 20 times the number of positive test results). Those 300,000 are spread out over the entire country.
What China and S Korea did was contain an identifiably limited number of cases. We simply don't have that luxury right now.
It's like the difference between one small bush fire in one corner of the wilderness, and hundreds of bush fires spread out over the whole landscape. China and S Korea dealt with the former fantastically well. The UK is metaphorically dealing with the latter at the moment and can no longer realistically contain the situation. The best we can do is delay the inevitable and manage the fire as it consumes itself without causing to much damage to the everything around it.
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So 2 reasons why. I'm in USA but same applies UK or US.
We and you are too far ahead in transmission now. It's all in community. So identifying and isolating cases is not feasible in these numbers. Might as well general lockdown.
Even in the beginning their level of isolating identified cases would not be tolerated in either country imo. For example I know in S. Korea they used GPS to ensure isolation and monitor the quarantined people. That level of privacy invasion is difficult here or UK.
That's my take on it. Has been that way for a while.
2% is the widely reported estimate for the CFR.
I adjusted the growth rate to 15% after the lockdown.
Pretty interesting video
I'm not sure UK and USA are comparable. We have a nationwide lockdown here in Britain which is being mostly very well observed. The government is demanding we stay at home, and on the whole, this is being followed in a very conformist manner.
In America, the government is actively encouraging people to get back to work as soon as possible. I know people in Florida who are still working, still largely unaware of the thread, I know a woman in NY (the worst hit state of them all) who is still working her office job, relying only on the desks being spaced 6ft apart.
The key difference I think is Trump. He doesn't want to acknowledge the scale of the problem, even the face of the fact that America is now the most affected country in the world.
Here, the government are at least now enforcing quite robust and Draconian measures to ensure compliance.
Equally, the whole optimism with large undetected asymptomatic cases is strange and unsupported by vast majority of studies (estimates say it's around 20%). Moreover, people have rallied behind South Korea's numbers when they were low and now that they have risen people have switched to Germany. False optimism is dangerous as it can lead to reckless behaviour and to people not taking the proper precautions.
300k low estimate is if you do nothing. Like, treat this like the flu, pretend that it doesn't exist and continue with life. It also does not count that the number of ventilators and ICU beds is gonna significantly increase (for example, if one ventilator can get converted to 4, that is 4 times as many ventilators without buying any). And finally, it doesn't take into account the real possibility that there is a very large number of asymptotic cases, which at this stage is virtually certain.
I am in US too.
I totally agree that we (and every European country) didn't act as fast as they should have, that is not game over. A lockdown actually reverses the situation, and brings back the number to a more manageable number, when we can do identification, tracing and quarantie. It is gonna be harder and more lives will be lost than if those measures happened in January, but it is still very possible.
That's what the 300k refers to.
Italy 
I’ve just worked 14 days in a row in a busy London hospital. More than 3/4 of the patients I’m admitting under acute medicine are possible COVID-19s.
It’s an easy, boring diagnosis - ARDS on the CXR, normal white cell count with lymphopenia and a raised CRP. Management options are incredibly frustrating - all we can do if oxygenate and hope they get better.
It’s mental, and will only get worse - patients who would’ve gone straight to ITU a month ago are being admitted to medical wards. And the ones admitted to ITU haven’t done well so far, although the majority of them are still tubed and might still improve.
Admitted a couple of younger, fit patients from resus today - fit, muscular men in their late 40s with no past medical history (pO2 of 4 on room air!!!). Requiring 15L to barely maintain 85+% O2 sats.
We’re going to see incredibly sad things over the coming months.
It’s an easy, boring diagnosis - ARDS on the CXR, normal white cell count with lymphopenia and a raised CRP. Management options are incredibly frustrating - all we can do if oxygenate and hope they get better.
It’s mental, and will only get worse - patients who would’ve gone straight to ITU a month ago are being admitted to medical wards. And the ones admitted to ITU haven’t done well so far, although the majority of them are still tubed and might still improve.
Admitted a couple of younger, fit patients from resus today - fit, muscular men in their late 40s with no past medical history (pO2 of 4 on room air!!!). Requiring 15L to barely maintain 85+% O2 sats.
We’re going to see incredibly sad things over the coming months.
It depends on where in the USA. In California (at least in my county) almost everything is closed, and there is a lockdown which people are apparently respecting. There are many states in the US that have still not that many cases.
The US number of cases is to a large degree because of the number of testings. When you're doing over 100k cases for day, of course you are gonna find a lot of infections. It is also the reason why the US had a mortality rate of 1.5% while the UK has a mortality rate of 5%. Not different viruses, but just more testings in the US. It is a conjecture, but if we assume the same mortality rate then the number of infections in the UK should be around 5/1.5 * 11658 = 3.33 * 11658 = 38821 cases. Considering the difference in the population, the UK is actually worse hit than the US. Add to that, the US has a better health system, the ability to build new hospitals and a higher ability to make masks and ventilators. I believe that both countries are in deep shit, but the US is in less shit than the UK.
Norwegian health officials, at least, are very confident the real CFR will be below 1%, and probably comfortably so.
It depends on how many of them are really asymptotic. If there are 10 or so sick people (with no symptoms or very mild symptoms) for every documented official case, then there is no worst-case scenario that put the number of deaths to 300k.
Assume 50% being infected within the year (Dr. Byrx in the US says that this can happen on 3 seasons, not in one) that means 32 million infections. 90% of them asymptotic (or mild symptoms) put the number of infected to 3.2 million. From these, a conservative 3% mortality rate, would put the number of fatalities to around 100k.
Now, of course, it might well be that the number of real infections is not as high. On the other hand, the recent Oxford study (too good to be true) says that up to 50% of people might be already infected, which essentially means that this is not a big deal. I don't believe this is true, but there are many reasons to believe that there are many more cases than documented cases (which by definition puts the mortality rate much lower).
Then, just the social distancing and the hygiene will ensure that the infections won't reach those catastrophic numbers. Don't get me wrong, I think it is going to be really bad, but I think you are being me two weeks ago when I thought that the world is gonna burn. It is gonna be much better than 1 million deaths in the UK, it is gonna be much better than 300k deaths IMO.
This is certain. The mortality rate in Germany is 0.6%, while in UK is 5% and in Italy is over 10%. The main difference between these tthree countries is not that Germany likes beer, Italy likes wine and UK likes tea, but that Germany is doing more testings. All countries with a high number of testings (per capita) are essentially reporting a mortality rate of below 1%. And this is an overestimate considering that unless they are testing every citizen (which they are not), there are infected people who do not get a test. Heck, in Germany and the US despite doing tests like crazy, it is extremely hard to get a test unless you are really sick (or you are very rich). The majority of infected people with mild symptoms or no symptoms at all are not getting tested, and so the mortality rate is inflated.
In the end, with a working medical system, I believe it is well under 0.5%. With a crashed medical system it's essentially 'who doesn't get a ventilator dies'.
There's a lot of people here going to be depressed when the virus eventually disappears. You'll have nothing to moan, whinge and doom monger about. Putting the shits up people seems to be exciting to a lot of people, without even having a clue about anything, just what they've read. Heads full of cartoons fantasizing about a walking dead type scenario ffs.
Watched a programme the other night, well, half watched it, Mrs had it on. All they went on about was negative and worst case scenarios, like ridiculous worst case scenarios. Bad news is news. Good news isn't profitable so they gloss over anything half positive.
While I'm having a moan about this, I'll have a little moan about everyone saying "this is why we needed to fund the NHS more previously" ... No, we needed to stop people taking the piss out the NHS, drug users, obesity, them people who goto the docs for every single cough, parents taking kids for a sneeze. More funding would have been great, but a massive factor is abuse of the system. People getting free boob jobs cos they're depressed and stuff man. That's wrong.
Putting strain on a system/service supposed to be used for good, for ridiculous reasons, obesity man, just stop eating like fecking whales.
Watched a programme the other night, well, half watched it, Mrs had it on. All they went on about was negative and worst case scenarios, like ridiculous worst case scenarios. Bad news is news. Good news isn't profitable so they gloss over anything half positive.
While I'm having a moan about this, I'll have a little moan about everyone saying "this is why we needed to fund the NHS more previously" ... No, we needed to stop people taking the piss out the NHS, drug users, obesity, them people who goto the docs for every single cough, parents taking kids for a sneeze. More funding would have been great, but a massive factor is abuse of the system. People getting free boob jobs cos they're depressed and stuff man. That's wrong.
Putting strain on a system/service supposed to be used for good, for ridiculous reasons, obesity man, just stop eating like fecking whales.
You're assigning 3% CFR to the 10% percent with non-mild symptoms when the CFR for all cases is estimated to be closer to that. Also note that many estimates for the asymptomatic proportion don't account for the subset of those who later on tend to develop symptoms. One of the first estimates was the Diamond Princess study which found that 50% were asymptomatic. However, they later had revise this as then more than half the asymptomatic proportion went on to develop symptoms, which aligns with what many models are saying (different studies from 17% to 31%).