SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

In the end, with a working medical system, I believe it is well under 0.5%. With a crashed medical system it's essentially 'who doesn't get a ventilator dies'.

I don't disagree with what you've said, but I've seen a couple of interviews with Italian medical staff who've indicated that the survival rate for intubated patients is very low, although that could certainly be a result of not getting treatment quickly enough. The real worry, in my view, is not just the capacity of ICUs (or lack thereof), but rather the huge number of caregivers outside of hospitals (retirement/nursing homes, etc), where maintaining strict hygienic measures is much more difficult. Even in Norway, where staff are given quarantine orders at the slightest suspicion of possible contact with infected people in the outside world, the virus is slowly creeping into these facilities. That is where the numbers could get ugly, no matter how many ventilators any nearby hospital has.
 
The thing about this is that it's a fluid situation and there is constant upward pressure on the death rates in these countries (the number of new deaths is a greater proportion of existing deaths than new cases is of existing cases). Germany was at 0.3% last week, at one stage South Korea was at 0.4, now it's at 1.5.

As of right now the best data for an entire country is without question Iceland and this really should give the clearest picture going forward. They've already tested 3.7% of the entire country. Above and beyond the government tests, they've also got a company (deCode Genetics) that's doing voluntary community testing. The government has a detailed and dedicated page for both: https://www.covid.is/data

To put that in perspective, NY, which has by far the biggest testing program in the states had by yesterday tested 5,319 per million. Iceland has tested 37,371 per million. The current data out of Iceland is encouraging: 890 cases, 97 recovered, 18 hospitalised, 6 in ICU, 2 dead. That's obviously very hopeful but it's clearly not the end of the story either. For instance yesterday there were only 3 people in Iceland's ICUs. I think one of the things widespread testing does besides capturing more people with genuintely asymptotic and milder conditions is that it captures them at earlier stages the disease. There is therefore a greater lag between discovery and death in these countries. That needs to be factored in when attempting to ascertain the true death rate.
Iceland data is good exercise. But it is totally skewed. You can see that almost all of the cases found are from government testing, and DeCode is not finding almost any cases, because their testing criteria is totally different. So these numbers can not be compared to other countries. Also age distribution of cases explains the low dead rate so far, as well as the early detection, like you mention.

But this is yet another data point that there just aren't that many asymptotic cases around. Certainly not this imaginery 10x number some are hoping for.
 
I’ve just worked 14 days in a row in a busy London hospital. More than 3/4 of the patients I’m admitting under acute medicine are possible COVID-19s.

It’s an easy, boring diagnosis - ARDS on the CXR, normal white cell count with lymphopenia and a raised CRP. Management options are incredibly frustrating - all we can do if oxygenate and hope they get better.

It’s mental, and will only get worse - patients who would’ve gone straight to ITU a month ago are being admitted to medical wards. And the ones admitted to ITU haven’t done well so far, although the majority of them are still tubed and might still improve.

Admitted a couple of younger, fit patients from resus today - fit, muscular men in their late 40s with no past medical history (pO2 of 4 on room air!!!). Requiring 15L to barely maintain 85+% O2 sats.

We’re going to see incredibly sad things over the coming months.

are the younger patients tubed or supplemental o2? Hope they are ok.
 
There are obviously foods that can help boost the immune system. Relevant no?

I’m sure if it would have been helpful for people to eat certain foods. At least one health expert from one of the major countries in the world would have told their citizens by now
 
If one good thing comes out of this virus, it’s hopefully that the NHS becomes absolutely untouchable for the Tories and the need for public healthcare is cemented in the US.
 
There are obviously foods that can help boost the immune system. Relevant no?

Not exactly, there aren't foods that help boost the immune system, you need to avoid micronutrient malnutrition, basically have a diverse diet that allows you to get all the micronutrients that you need.
 
At Oslo University Hospital, Scientists say they may have an anti-body ready in 3-4 weeks. If the test works as good as it seems. If/When all is good with that test it will tell us how to handle the pandemic.

Since the virus is so recent in many humans, some time will go before we have all the answers. When some time has passed after the infection, we can say more about the quality of the anti-bodies.

The Anti-body tests can be run at high volumes in machines at hospitals.

The best possible scenario is that the tests shows that we get herd immunity for life from this Virus, like chickenpox. That means no more Covid-19 in a year or two. Or it could be that when the virus hits again, it does not cause as severe symptoms and disease as the first time due to the antibodys left behind. Another scenario can be that the virus mutates enough to avoid the existing antibodies.

Corona will produce antibodies though.

And the infected persons immune defense will first produce immuneglobuling M (UgM). This happens while you are sick or contagious. Call it the intensive phase.

Then after a while, IgM disappears, and the body produces ImmuneGlobulin G (IgG). This gives vital information. If a patient has positiv IgM we now they have a recent infection, maybe active. If one just can detect IgG, we know the patient has been infected earlier. Right now the tests can tell to a certain degree when a person was infected, but in a year that will be impossible.

So now, the question is when our countries will be able to develop these tests, as they will be extremely valuable to tell us what we need to do forward in time. Estimates for Norway at least is that a test will not be finished before earliest a month from now.
 
I’m sure if it would have been helpful for people to eat certain foods. At least one health expert from one of the major countries in the world would have told their citizens by now

I'm talking about the immune system in general. One of the reasons why people are vulnerable to viruses, is because they have lower immunity. Their body's response as a last resort is what is causing the pneumonia, if I understand the situation correctly.
 
There are obviously foods that can help boost the immune system. Relevant no?

I eat relatively healthy and at the moment more than ever as I've cut out all booze and takeaways.

But will diet and food have much of an impact? This is a serious question, I've always seen those adverts about 'superfoods' and yogurts being good for your gut, but I don't know how much I believe them.
 
I'm talking about the immune system in general. One of the reasons why people are vulnerable to viruses, is because they have lower immunity. Their body's response as a last resort is what is causing the pneumonia, if I understand the situation correctly.

I know that. And I repeat if there was a simple solution of eating certain foods I am certain some medical expert would have said.
 
If one good thing comes out of this virus, it’s hopefully that the NHS becomes absolutely untouchable for the Tories and the need for public healthcare is cemented in the US.

I agree but I think this will also lead to a need to really consider how the NHS is run / funded. Surely this has highlight massive gaps in the system that will really need correcting.
 
:lol: You've not helped yourself here.

The minute I saw your post I thought , hang on, wasn't this the person who ...….
Not seen anything else he’s posted but based on what you’ve quoted how’s it even comparable? People from all countries have been advised to return home, I’ve seen many of my mates catching flights back from Bali and Australia - following governmental advice. People also have to go to the shop?
 
Surprised there's not a lot of media talk about nutrition that can help boost the immune system.

No, that doesn't get half clicks as number of people died, and other horrible news with click bait titles. And even when they make similar article it's based mostly on advertisiment of specific products without much true in it.
 
I know that. And I repeat if there was a simple solution of eating certain foods I am certain some medical expert would have said.
I'm taking a liquid supplement made by Haliborange which has Vit D3, echinacea and all sorts of other stuff in it to boost the immune system. No idea if it'll help, but it won't do any harm!
 
Iceland data is good exercise. But it is totally skewed. You can see that almost all of the cases found are from government testing, and DeCode is not finding almost any cases, because their testing criteria is totally different. So these numbers can not be compared to other countries. Also age distribution of cases explains the low dead rate so far, as well as the early detection, like you mention.

But this is yet another data point that there just aren't that many asymptotic cases around. Certainly not this imaginery 10x number some are hoping for.

I thought the Iceland data showed 50% of cases were asymptomatic and the rest were mainly mild? Small number more serious.
 
I agree but I think this will also lead to a need to really consider how the NHS is run / funded. Surely this has highlight massive gaps in the system that will really need correcting.

Absolutely but the NHS is in the state it is in by design, that includes the way it’s run rather than funded. It’s intentionally been crippled and disjointed so the government can point to its failings and justify their actions.
 
Absolutely but the NHS is in the state it is in by design, that includes the way it’s run rather than funded. It’s intentionally been crippled and disjointed so the government can point to its failings and justify their actions.

Agree. I’m definitely against privatisation of the NHS but can’t help think that private management would make huge advances for the state of the NHS.
 
If one good thing comes out of this virus, it’s hopefully that the NHS becomes absolutely untouchable for the Tories and the need for public healthcare is cemented in the US.

I have felt for some time that the NHS and education should be governed completely outside of party policy and run by cross party committee. This would ensure that two of the most important pillars of our lives are free from the ebb and flow of politics and remain as consistently funded and guided as possible.
 
I thought the Iceland data showed 50% of cases were asymptomatic and the rest were mainly mild? Small number more serious.
Look at the breakdown from amount of tests and the amount of positive results, from both government and from decode. They are totally and utterly different. If there were many asymptotic cases, decode would have a "better" success rate. And I believe there are 20-50% asymptotic cases. Finnish government thinks there are 90-95% asymptotic, no way is that possible.

About 1% is positive for decode, and 14% for government. So totally skewed data.
 
The problem with supplements is the severe lack of testing. Both safety and effectiveness. For the most part they'll likely do no harm and be ineffective. In particular, I would be very careful with supplements that have significantly more than recommended daily doses of vitamins etc.
 
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:lol:


Surely this sort of stuff isn't decided by subscribing to one email. It would have been verbally discussed and agreed with all parties
 
Iceland data is good exercise. But it is totally skewed. You can see that almost all of the cases found are from government testing, and DeCode is not finding almost any cases, because their testing criteria is totally different. So these numbers can not be compared to other countries. Also age distribution of cases explains the low dead rate so far, as well as the early detection, like you mention.

But this is yet another data point that there just aren't that many asymptotic cases around. Certainly not this imaginery 10x number some are hoping for.

They differentiate between the two. Government testing by itself has tested proportionally 3x more of Iceland's population than NY and continues to test them at a faster daily rate.

The fact they're checking a self selecting asymptotic group as well as those found via government tracing is precisely what makes the Icelandic numbers so useful. Like you say the deCode data provides a useful proxy for predicting the upper bound of community spread. If 0.86% of a truly random selection of 5.5k people prove positive then we might predict that as of 21st of March around 3.5k Icelanders were infected. Since the deCode test is self selecting and based out of Reykjavik (the hotspot) it's likely a lot, lot less than that.

I just think that going forward and given the small population size the Icelandic numbers are the cleanest, most comprehensive and likely to be the most revelatory.
 
They differentiate between the two. Government testing by itself has tested proportionally 3x more of Iceland's population than NY and continues to test them at a faster daily rate.

The fact they're checking a self selecting asymptotic group as well as those found via government tracing is precisely what makes the Icelandic numbers so useful. Like you say the deCode data provides a useful proxy for predicting the upper bound of community spread. If 0.86% of a truly random selection of 5.5k people prove positive then we might predict that as of 21st of March around 3.5k Icelanders were infected. Since the deCode test is self selecting and based out of Reykjavik (the hotspot) it's likely a lot, lot less than that.

I just think that going forward and given the small population size the Icelandic numbers are the cleanest, most comprehensive and likely to be the most revelatory.
Sure, but many people will confuse this as random sampling. It is useful but random sampling would be a lot more interesting. Still helpful data obviously.
 
feck me, Croatia has apparently only done about 1900 tests so far. In comparison iirc Slovenia has done about 18000 with half the population. We also have a similar number of confirmed cases at around 650, but with 18 times more tests performed. I don't even want to look at numbers from other Balkan countries.

At least the containment measures have been mostly taken I believe. Hopefully those will help at least on some level.
 
The problem with supplements is the severe lack of testing. Both safety and effectiveness. For the most part they'll likely do no harm and be ineffective. In particular, I would be very careful with supplements that have significantly more than recommended daily doses of vitamins etc.
I would guess roughly 9 in 10 people I know think they can defeat the flu by taking ungodly amounts of Vitamin C once symptoms set in or if they feel at risk.

They are probably thinking the same with this virus.
 
I would guess roughly 9 in 10 people I know think they can defeat the flu by taking ungodly amounts of Vitamin C once symptoms set in or if they feel at risk.

They are probably thinking the same with this virus.

There is proof that vitamin c reduces the duration of the common cold though, so it's not a totally unfounded belief, and it certainly cant hurt you in any over the counter dosage.

I wonder how that intravenous vitamin c trial went in China. I haven't seen any results which probably means it didnt work.
 
Why Germany's Coronavirus Death Rate Is Far Lower Than In Other Countries

As confirmed cases of the coronavirus in Germany soared past 10,000 last week, hundreds of Berliners crowded Volkspark am Friedrichshain to play soccer and basketball, and to let their kids loose on the park's many jungle gyms.

The conditions seemed ideal for the spread of a virus that has killed thousands. Indeed, as of Wednesday, Germany had the fifth-highest number of cases.

Yet Germany's fatality rate so far — just 0.5% — is the world's lowest, by a long shot.

"I believe that we are just testing much more than in other countries, and we are detecting our outbreak early," said Christian Drosten, director of the institute of virology at Berlin's Charité hospital.

As Europe has become the epicenter of the global coronavirus pandemic, Italy's fatality rate hovers around 10%. France's is around 5%. Yet Germany's fatality rate from COVID-19 has remained remarkably low since cases started showing up there more than a month ago. As of March 25, there were 175 deaths and 34,055 cases.

Drosten, whose team of researchers developed the first COVID-19 test used in the public domain, said Germany's low fatality rate is because of his country's ability to test early and often. He estimates Germany has been testing around 120,000 people a week for COVID-19 during the monthlong period from late February to now, when it's reached epidemic proportions in the country, the most extensive testing regimen in the world.

And that means Germany is more likely to have a lower number of undetected cases than other countries where testing is less prevalent, which raises the question: Why is Germany testing so much?

"We have a culture here in Germany that is actually not supporting a centralized diagnostic system," said Drosten, "so Germany does not have a public health laboratory that would restrict other labs from doing the tests. So we had an open market from the beginning."

In other words, Germany's equivalent to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention — the Robert Koch Institute — makes recommendations but does not call the shots on testing for the entire country. Germany's 16 federal states make their own decisions on coronavirus testing because each of them is responsible for their own health care systems.


When Drosten's university medical center developed what became the test recommended by the World Health Organization, they rolled these tests out to their colleagues throughout Germany in January.

"And they of course rolled this out to labs they know in the periphery and to hospital labs in the area where they are situated," Drosten said. "This created a situation where, let's say, by the beginning or middle of February, testing was already in place, broadly."

Drosten said that has meant quicker, earlier and more widespread testing for COVID-19 in Germany than in other countries.

Lothar Wieler, head of the Robert Koch Institute, Germany's federal agency responsible for disease control and prevention, said at a news conference last week that Germany's testing infrastructure means authorities have a more accurate read of confirmed cases of the virus.

"We don't know exactly how many unknown cases there are, but we estimate that this unknown number is not very high," Wieler said. "The reason is simple. We issued recommendations in mid-January about who should be tested and who shouldn't be tested."

But some Berlin residents aren't as confident as Wieler. Nizana Nizzi Brautmann said she was worried when a teacher at her son's school tested positive for COVID-19 and a day later she and her son woke up with fevers and persistent coughing. She said she couldn't get through to Berlin's coronavirus hotline, which was continuously busy.

She finally got through to the city's emergency medical service number, "and I told her I think we need to be checked because we have some symptoms," Brautmann recalled. "The lady was just saying, 'We make no tests here. I can't help you. I would advise you to stay home and drink tea.' "

When she finally was able to speak to a doctor on the phone, the doctor told her to wait in line outside a local hospital to get tested, but she didn't have a mask for her or her son, and she didn't want to infect others in line, so she stayed home. She and her son are now in good health, but she said the episode left her wondering how prepared German society is for this pandemic.

Drosten said such experiences are probably an exception, not the rule.

"I know the diagnostics community in Germany a bit," Drosten said. "My feeling is that actually the supply of tests is still good. And of course, our epidemic is now also very much up-ramping and we will lose track here, too."

Drosten said the growing number of cases in Germany will soon exceed testing capacities. But for the time being, he thinks the country has had a robust response to the coronavirus pandemic.
He's most worried about countries in Africa that aren't well set up for this — countries that, once the crisis comes to them, will find it more difficult to flatten the curve.

Source

(bolding done by me)
 
Why Germany's Coronavirus Death Rate Is Far Lower Than In Other Countries



Source

(bolded parts done by me)

Makes sense. Italy announced yesterday that as infections are slowing and testing capacity has caught up, they can now test people with just 1 symptom instead of restricting it to those with 2 or more. Could result in a rise in recorded infections short term but shows how under pressure some systems are.
 
The WHO has repeatedly said that testing is the key.
The more you test the better they know this virus and the better the figures look.
Alas, in this country we have only just started testing in vast numbers which means our figures look better than what they are in terms of confirmed cases.
Germany has tested in vast numbers straight away, which gives their figure a true reflection.