South Africa's 21-day lockdown starts tonight at 00:00 and guess what!
No alcohol and cigarettes to be sold from tomorrow!
That’s NOT going to have the desired effect
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
That’s NOT going to have the desired effect
The lockdown is meant to avoid the ovewhelming of health services. And you have to remain in lockdown until they are able to function "normally".
When cooking rice I like to fill my saucepan to the brink of capacity before adding the water and boiling. It's the science way to do things.
@Ish let me know if I need to send you an express package with some Belgian onesSouth Africa's 21-day lockdown starts tonight at 00:00 and guess what!
No alcohol and cigarettes to be sold from tomorrow!
China ripping off Spain with tests that are 30% accurate while promising 80% accuracy.
https://elpais.com/sociedad/2020-03...onavirus-comprados-en-china-no-funcionan.html
https://elpais.com/sociedad/2020-03...onavirus-comprados-en-china-no-funcionan.html
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yes, so if a country is nowhere near being overwhelmed in terms of its health services, then why lockdown unnecessarily and inflict all the damage it does to society/small business etc?
Well you think that Cheltenham being allowed to go ahead was a “great idea” because some businesses made some money, public health be damned, so I think we all know where your values lie.
We started our 21 day lockdown today. Wonder if there's some consensus between some countries on the ideal timeline.South Africa's 21-day lockdown starts tonight at 00:00 and guess what!
No alcohol and cigarettes to be sold from tomorrow!
Because if it is nowhere overwhelmed it is in risk of being. And it will happen without warning or time to stop it. You have to act one month before things happen. That's how it has been everywhere, without exceptions.
It always is
The problem is the same as it's always been, models aren't accurate enough, in Norway we didn't expect the amount of cases of covid-19 related to Norwegians going skiing abroad (majority related to a bartender, obviously, as afterski is the most important part of going skiing), which meant that it spread faster than anticipated. Considering the amount of countries that have underestimated the rate of spread for their models, it'd hardly be shocking if the same goes for Sweden as well.
The argument that can be made is that if minor safety measures were introduced earlier, like telling people to reconsider going abroad for winter holiday etc, we'd achieve a decent enough rate to achieve herd immunity without the downside of closing shops and going into lockdown.
The plan in Norway is still herd immunity, we're just calling it something else for obvious reasons.
Would you like to think a little more carefully about what you just said? My entire point was that having people congregated in small parts of the country isn't helpful. So how does dividing the total landmass of the country by the population help your case in any way?
You certainly have advantages in a number of regards over Italy, but it would be a very bad mistake to assume that you're somehow just not going to be effected by this and life can go on as normal. It's not going to help having people living alone if people are still free to meet up in bars and restaurants.
South Africa's 21-day lockdown starts tonight at 00:00 and guess what!
No alcohol and cigarettes to be sold from tomorrow!
Yikes! That strikes me as a very bad idea!
well this is where all the modelling comes into play. if the health services aren't stretched at all, and you lock everything down, sure, you stopped the risk of them being overwhelmed. but what then? just stay locked down forever? at some point you then have to ease off the restrictions - and with that the same risk will be back (hence the 'second wave'), which takes us straight back to the beginning again.
the UK's numbers saw that without restrictions, the health services would be overwhelmed. so lockdown was the right thing to do. you can't just assume that's also the case for every other country in the world. every country is different, and it's a given we can't stay locked down forever. when you start and finish each lockdown (and there may be more of these, I'm sure) has to be based on the modelling. if Sweden think their numbers show that its health services won't be overwhelmed (and they are modelling into the future), then it makes no sense to lockdown too early.
That's bad news as I suspect that a lot of countries were hoping to use that kit.
It also shows the danger of the over-optimistic cries on hearing that the NHS labs are testing sample kits and hope to have millions of test kits in a couple of weeks. As with the drug trials, there's going to be a lot of failed products and theories - real tests (run as quickly as they can be safely but properly done) are essential. It's also a reminder why rushing into trials or even production of a vaccine has risks of its own.
Thanks for the info
I worry about the poor people in Yemen if/when this takes hold there. Syria as well.
https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/03/1060302
https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/or...n-face-masks-coronavirus-houthi-measures.html
https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/03/1060302
https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/or...n-face-masks-coronavirus-houthi-measures.html
It isn't pointless, it's critical in contact tracing which will be what is required to suppress this over a longer period of time. Most Asian countries put people into two week quarantine post arrival into the country now, which is the right approach in managing the case load.
I read that Dyson are producing vast numbers of Ventilators.
Hope the NHS staff are preparing themselves to deal with the most awkwardly designed Ventilators known to man.
It'll likely have about 6,7 needless button functions while being able to click-klank into a underwhelming hoover.
Hope the NHS staff are preparing themselves to deal with the most awkwardly designed Ventilators known to man.
It'll likely have about 6,7 needless button functions while being able to click-klank into a underwhelming hoover.
They also have very little clean water and electricity for only 4 hours a day.
It will be a massacre.
Add in the poverty and it’s extremely frightening. I’m really worried about the Indian cities too.
You've gotten completely confused here @Kentonio mate. No-one thinks we aren't going to be affected, absolutely no-one, we already massively are. My point was that we won't become an Italy because of many reasons, not least the density of population, but even our culture compared to Italien culture.
And my point wasn't regarding land mass, my entire point is that compared to Italy we have much less people and massively more spread out. Put the same map you did of Sweden side by side with the Italien one and you'll laugh at your own point.
For example, Sweden has 9 "cities" over 100,000 people. Italy has 47 cities/towns with over 100,000 people.
It's frankly a ridiculous retort to my original post.
Bang on the money.
Folk in here love lockdowns though and seem to think they are some kind of answer to everything. Apparently again country not doing it immediately are gambling with people's lives.
For those interested, this is a great link for Sweden only updates: https://www.svt.se/datajournalistik/corona-i-intensivvarden/
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The majority of epidemiologists and experts in pandemics will say you need to act first, then assess later. Modelling is useful but almost impossible in a crisis like this with incomplete data, and no knowledge of how incomplete the data is. The costs for acting later is much, much higher than for acting earlier. A lockdown + overrun medical system is much worse than lockdown only. And with such high uncertainty, you have to go for the lower risk option.
This is especially salient when testing is an issue, you’re only detecting a small number of the total cases resulting in exponential increase and a very, very quick peak. No health system can cope with that.
Sweden is substantially more urbanised than Italy Reg. I think that your cities are relatively less dense though.
lolz
47 italien cities over 100,000. 9 in Sweden.
Our big cities are miles smaller too, so how are you working this out mate?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...g-tsunami-of-coronavirus-patients-overwhelmed
Seems like your favoured tactic is not working too well for the UK. Their lockdown came waaaay too late, which will become more and more evident.
Lolz, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urbanization_by_country
Turns out each country has its own definition of urbanised. My bad.
Yeah, our country had the same experience, I wrote a post few pages back. Considering we don't have many cases yet they aren't doing much testing because testing itself is complicated and the tests aren't reliable 100%, many times they show false negatives so they have to check every test more times.
87% of 9 million compared to 70% of 60 million.
top maths.
42,000,0000 urbanized Italiens.
7,830,000 urbanized Swedes.
There are over 100 clinical trials now. I'll try to summarize later. Hopefully several are successful.
Their hand dryers are good.
Also Henry ventilators would probably be a bit distasteful.
Italy has 6 times the population, but less than 6 times the number of large cities. Urbanization is relative to population.
You’re having a mare here, mate.
Well, the rest of the world doesn't care about Yemen as long as the Saudis pays and Iran is the one that is indirectly impacted negatively. The problem is that the average person in Yemen is the one taking the direct impact.
Dyson building untested ventilators.
Meanwhile
Meanwhile
In the context of what we’re talking about here, that is Sweden becoming like Italy, it’s absolute nonsense as shown by the numbers below, you’re talking 34 million more Italians living in urbanized areas than Swedes, 34 million.