SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

And again im no expert and in theory it sounds a good (albeit risky idea, especially to make the public understand) but dont back track if its what you truly believe.

I think they had to backtrack because of the politics and media pressure, but that will still be the plan.
 
Who are you talking about now arnie?
That british expert that usually stands to boris' left during the announcements. On a radio show (i think) he talked about herd immunity as their plan but has since said it was never the plan. Piers morgan had both clips up on his Twitter recently highlighting the experts contradicting themselves.
 
@Massive Spanner, for what it's worth mate, I'm simply defending the path the SWEDISH experts believe is best for SWEDEN, at this point.

If that makes me a internet expert who knows better than the experts in Ireland, so be it, but it's an odd line to take.
My worth with Sweden is that they are essentially* doing what the likes of the UK, the US and even Italy did which is "ah we'll do more than worse happens" which is clearly not a good approach to take, as evidenced by what we've already seen.

*I could be wrong because I'm not actually living there
 
haha, I've defended Swedish expert scientific opinion. And the UK scientific opinion.

Now if it turns out the UK locked down too late, or that Sweden do it too late, I'm be the first to admit my trust was incorrectly placed.

But "worst" posts because I'm defending science is a bit rich when none of us know which country will come out of this best isn't it @Prometheus ?
Why are you defending those 2 options rather than say Ireland as massive spanner mentioned?

Why those that stay open longest rather than ones that go earlier?
 
But I think the chances of a vaccine coming in the next 5 years is vanishingly small. We don't have vaccines for Sars, Mers or common cold Coronaviruses. Despite what people say there have been ongoing efforts to develop these for many years, without success.

I think that hoping for a vaccine is like hoping for nuclear fusion technology so that climate change won't be a problem. It's possible, but not a planning scenario.

So we're genuinely hoping this thing just burns itself out?
 
I think they had to backtrack because of the politics and media pressure, but that will still be the plan.
Thats sort of the point im getting at. If thats their plan, they are now just lying to the public, so how are these experts to be believed and trusted over other experts?
 
My worth with Sweden is that they are essentially* doing what the likes of the UK, the US and even Italy did which is "ah we'll do more than worse happens" which is clearly not a good approach to take, as evidenced by what we've already seen.

*I could be wrong because I'm not actually living there

It's NOTHING like Italy for fecks sake man.

Italy won't be possible here because we simply don't live like that for a start, we maintain social distance at the best of times and 90% of the country is a wilderness.

Why do people even have such view of things they have very little idea about? In Sweden we have put lots in place to combat this.
 
Why are you defending those 2 options rather than say Ireland as massive spanner mentioned?

Why those that stay open longest rather than ones that go earlier?

I have no idea how Ireland, the UK or Sweden will play out.

I mentioned UK because I'm English, and Swedish because I live there. Are you just looking for an argument here?

I have defended every single country in here that follows the advice of the scientific advisors and scientific models, rather than make political decisions.
 
But I think the chances of a vaccine coming in the next 5 years is vanishingly small. We don't have vaccines for Sars, Mers or common cold Coronaviruses. Despite what people say there have been ongoing efforts to develop these for many years, without success.

I think that hoping for a vaccine is like hoping for nuclear fusion technology so that climate change won't be a problem. It's possible, but not a planning scenario.

Coronavirus is totally different. We don't have a vaccine for the common cold because there are so many different types and they continually change, and there was never the incentive to keep developing SARS or MERS vaccines.

So far coronavirus hasn't evolved much if at all and it's shutting down half the world.
 
I'm all for being positive about this but some people I speak to saying ''ah it'll be gone in 3 weeks'' are kind of doing by head in. It's not going to just disappear into thin air is it? I wish it did but most likely we'll need to wait on the vaccine.

Barbecues and beer garden by Easter innit.

The worst are the ones that are like “just imagine...it’s the first weekend after the lockdown is over, it’s a warm summer night, everyone’s excited, it’s gonna be mad mate”

Like “lockdown” is just a switch you flick on and off. I really am worried for a lot of these people and how they’re going to handle the next few months.
 
I have no idea how Ireland, the UK or Sweden will play out.

I mentioned UK because I'm English, and Swedish because I live there. Are you just looking for an argument here?
No, im genuinely asking why you see. To prefer a later deferment of lockdown rather than earlier?

Im not talking about months here either, just a week or two.
 
Coronavirus is totally different. We don't have a vaccine for the common cold because there are so many different types and they continually change, and there was never the incentive to keep developing SARS or MERS vaccines.

So far coronavirus hasn't evolved much if at all and it's shutting down half the world.

They are all coronaviruses, which is why I put them together. I hope so, but I just don't think it's something we as a society can plan on.
 
No, im genuinely asking why you see. To prefer a later deferment of lockdown rather than earlier?

Im not talking about months here either, just a week or two.

But if you lock down too early, you will never know whether it's a week early or two months too early.
 
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No, im genuinely asking why you see. To prefer a later deferment of lockdown rather than earlier?

Im not talking about months here either, just a week or two.

I don't. I prefer the scientists to follow their models.

I also know 100% that a 2 week lockdown needs to achieve something, else it's absolutely pointless. In Italy, France and Spain it is achieving it's goal because it had spiralled out of control there arnie. It's not close to spiralling here in Sweden.

When it does start to spike (so before it goes out of control), I'm all for lockdown or stricter measures. But why are you for locking down now in Sweden? for 2 weeks? to what goal?
 
Any testing at airport? Temperature even?

How do they know you self isolate for 14 days following your arrival?
No testing whatsoever.

Also no request or instruction to self isolate, let alone any mechanic to check that I do it.
 
Yeah, unfortunately. I was optimistic at first for the summer but it looks nailed on for a RIP Werchter and Pukkelpop :(

FYI, I know someone at LiveNation who always tells me which bands will play on the bigger festivals in Belgium, days before the announcements and his take is that Werchter and Graspop are already cancelled at this point. They are just waiting till they are forced by the govornment, to be able to reach out for insurance money.

No American, UK, Australian... bands will fly into our country in 2-3 months time, it's impossible imo.
 
I have no idea how Ireland, the UK or Sweden will play out.

I mentioned UK because I'm English, and Swedish because I live there. Are you just looking for an argument here?

I have defended every single country in here that follows the advice of the scientific advisors and scientific models, rather than make political decisions.
I quoted you before you edit re political decisions.

How confident are you that the uk hasn't been doing that?

Advising not to go to pubs rather than closing them initially re rumours of keeping their insurance buddies happy? Neville even said if they closed hotels he could claim of insurance which forced his hand in closing his hotels himself and not being able to claim...

Keeping non essentisl construction open etc?
 
My worth with Sweden is that they are essentially* doing what the likes of the UK, the US and even Italy did which is "ah we'll do more than worse happens" which is clearly not a good approach to take, as evidenced by what we've already seen.

*I could be wrong because I'm not actually living there

I think that’s a very shallow interpretation of what’s going on in Britain. About half a million volunteers have been mobilised here to look after the vulnerable and Dyson look like they’re going to manage to manufacture 10000 ventilators from scratch in month. These are just two examples of the monumental collective effort that’s happening here. When countries shut down will only be a very small part of this story when all is said and done.
 
Yeah, unfortunately. I was optimistic at first for the summer but it looks nailed on for a RIP Werchter and Pukkelpop :(
Yeah there is absolutely no way these will happen. Even if we have it well under control by then, those festivals typically expect artists and fans from all over the world and there will be plenty of countries still struggling then. They would be ideal places for a new outbreak.
 
That's because it's in society now and unstoppable until a vaccine is found or herd-immunity (if possible) reached, so what's the point of testing you?
What if hes an nhs worker thats into a lockdown now and might not have the virus?

Yet prince Charles can get a test?

Edit.. also if they done some sort of testing or forced isolation for people coking back from italy china etc this eould never have got widespread in the first place.
 
I fully understand the effects of lag, I felt that was obvious. RAB and I were talking about rates of infection, and when I said brink of capacity I was referring to the forecast.
Sure but then you'd still have to build in a very large margin of error, just to be safe. We've seen how quickly countries have been overwhelmed. No two countries are exactly the same but still, you'd rather be on the safe side and take your measure a week too early instead of too late.
 
No, hence I didn't reply because I'm pretty certain you can't so felt like wasted typing time.

Damn, and now I've done it again.

I haven't denied God in this thread either Bob, doesn't mean I believe in one.

Did you also quote someone claiming God exists and fully agreeing with his post ?
 
It's NOTHING like Italy for fecks sake man.

Italy won't be possible here because we simply don't live like that for a start, we maintain social distance at the best of times and 90% of the country is a wilderness.

Why do people even have such view of things they have very little idea about? In Sweden we have put lots in place to combat this.

Except that's not actually very helpful is it? Population density is one of the easiest ways for disease to spread, and having most of your people congregated in a few areas rather than spread out across the landmass is not particularly useful.

Location-of-study-population-Map-showing-population-density-in-Sweden-by-municipality.png
 
FYI, I know someone at LiveNation who always tells me which bands will play on the bigger festivals in Belgium, days before the announcements and his take is that Werchter and Graspop are already cancelled at this point. They are just waiting till they are forced by the govornment, to be able to reach out for insurance money.

No American, UK, Australian... bands will fly into our country in 2-3 months time, it's impossible imo.
Yeah same here - one of the best friends of the missus is at the top of the chain for Graspop, they don't really have hope anymore. Heard from a relative yesterday that Werchter cancelled the order for all their T-shirts for crew and stuff as well, so definitely looks like you're right. It sucks but it's the right decision at this point, it's just not worth it to risk it. Same goes for Tomorrowland which attracts people from all over the world, that's just not possible. Gladiolen is already cancelled.

There's still a slimmer of hope in me that Reggae Geel will do an edition for local people only :lol: but even that wouldn't really be the same without the Dutch and other foreigners present.

Oh well. I guess it's time for a lot of BBQs then, if that's already allowed again in summer.
 
But if you lock down too early, you will never know whether it's a week early or two months too early.
There is no "too early". Certainly not in any country were people have been travelling for the past month or so.
 
Sure but then you'd still have to build in a very large margin of error, just to be safe. We've seen how quickly countries have been overwhelmed. No two countries are exactly the same but still, you'd rather be on the safe side and take your measure a week too early instead of too late.

I would cut it as close as possible to be honest. The cost of shutting down is so extreme.
 
There is no "too early". Certainly not in any country were people have been travelling for the past month or so.

There is if you value the economic cost. If you don't then I could agree with you.
 
Except that's not actually very helpful is it? Population density is one of the easiest ways for disease to spread, and having most of your people congregated in a few areas rather than spread out across the landmass is not particularly useful.

How does Italy look side by side @Kentonio

Italy - 206 per Km2

Sweden - 25 per km2

So your point again?

Then also consider that Swedes are famous for living alone in big cities from 18. They rarely flat share and next to never stay with parents. How is that in Italy?
 
I think that’s a very shallow interpretation of what’s going on in Britain. About half a million volunteers have been mobilised here to look after the vulnerable and Dyson look like they’re going to manage to manufacture 10000 ventilators from scratch in month. These are just two examples of the monumental collective effort that’s happening here. When countries shut down will only be a very small part of this story when all is said and done.
No it's not, it's exactly what happened up until last week.
 
I would cut it as close as possible to be honest. The cost of shutting down is so extreme.
The cost for shutting down too late could be even more extreme. And I can't help but think about all those health workers, what we'd be putting them through by taking measures too late is just horrendously unfair. No amount of daily applaus from our windows is enough for that.