The numbers are an example.
It was more the element of lag from unknown cases that could literally kill people if you stay open even slightly to long.
Your better to close early than late.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
It was more the element of lag from unknown cases that could literally kill people if you stay open even slightly to long.
Your better to close early than late.
Absolutely.
No.
and this is why the UK switched strategy. the numbers said the herd immunity strategy wasn't going to work.
every country will be different though. if Sweden has the right mix of age demographics, social behaviour, ICU availability, etc, then all the power to them if they can avoid a lockdown. i'm sure they have plenty of people running the numbers daily.
Is it? It’s been verified that there are two strains, and now there are reports from Iceland about 40 different strains being detected by their scientists. What are you basing your claim on?
But how do they know 90 percent have no symptoms if they arent testing the public.
That figure could be 95, or 85, which could mean you could have stayed open a while longer, or you needed to go sooner.
Absolutely, you don't wait till it's at the brink. You wait until the model and curve shows you it's spiking.
That's basic science.
You can't read Bob?
If you do it when you're at the brink of capacity, you have a catastrophe on your hands in a week's time. The effects of a lockdown are only clearly visible between 7-14 days after the start of the lockdown. That's simply too late.
And it should be obvious that the idea is to not go back to the same situation as before the lockdown after a few weeks. The heaviest lockdown measures will be lifted but many milder measures will stay in effect. All economic activity should gradually start back up while stuff like mass gatherings remain out of the question for a long time. The time you're buying with such a lockdown allows everyone to get so much better equiped. More protection equipment for health workers, better and more focused treatment, better testing, etc. Time is crucial.
The problem is, certain governments still ended up prioritising 'economy' over such expert opinions.
I meant brink of capacity according to the models, not as in every single ICU bed is currently occupied. In the context of the conversation with RAB I feel that should be understood.
I very much doubt Sweden's healthcare service is so good that it's running at 90% ICU availability. That whole argument leads to a false sense of acceptable lag.
Reduce it to 10% availability and how quickly do you need to act?
Reduce it to 10% availability and how quickly do you need to act?
I fully understand the effects of lag, I felt that was obvious. RAB and I were talking about rates of infection, and when I said brink of capacity I was referring to the forecast.
Imagine the absolute state of the globe if China hadn't locked down Wuhan when they did, and instead waited for a couple of weeks more.
Yup, Bob thinks we mean when 1000 ICU beds are being used by 999 people, we start taking stricter measures.
The changes are very minor, it's the amount of change.
https://www.businessinsider.com/new...accine-could-be-long-lasting-2020-3?r=US&IR=T
This is what a few people seem to be missing. A lockdown costs you money, but what you're buying for all that economic hardship is time - time to buy/build ventilators, time to expand your critical care capacity, time to get healthcare workers tested, time to roll out PPE etc. That will have an enormous impact on the eventual death rate in a country like the UK, whose healthcare system runs at close to capacity all year around.
It depends. If you can show me where you disagreed with his claim:
You don't want lockdown until your health service is at the absolute brink of capacity
Then no, i probably can't read.
I'm gonna trust that the experts who give us a daily 14:00 press conference know exactly that.
Yeah, unfortunately. I was optimistic at first for the summer but it looks nailed on for a RIP Werchter and Pukkelpop
I'm comforted to know that all the experts around the world are wrong and a few posters on RedCafe are right, but it now also frustrates me that we listened to those experts in Ireland and locked down before our healthcare was at the brink of capacity. Might lodge a complaint, or get in contact with other affluent, like minded people and get a pub reopened.
Cheers! That’s encouraging.
The same experts that talked about herd immunity and are now lying the ever said it due to public backlash?
I'm all for being positive about this but some people I speak to saying ''ah it'll be gone in 3 weeks'' are kind of doing by head in. It's not going to just disappear into thin air is it? I wish it did but most likely we'll need to wait on the vaccine.
All the experts in the entire World talk about herd immunity to be fair, it's one of just two ways out of this.
This. All experts have different opinions evidenced by different countries taking different measures.
Most here thinking lockdown a bit early is better.
And again im no expert and in theory it sounds a good (albeit risky idea, especially to make the public understand) but dont back track if its what you truly believe.
@Massive Spanner, for what it's worth mate, I'm simply defending the path the SWEDISH experts believe is best for SWEDEN, at this point.
If that makes me a internet expert who knows better than the experts in Ireland, so be it, but it's an odd line to take.
Bit rich coming from the person who has been making pretty much the worst posts in this thread for weeks.
It's not impossible, but it is extremely unlikely (I'm assuming a lot of posters will have already pointed this out). If-something-looks-too-good-to-be-true and all that.
https://www.dropbox.com/s/oxmu2rwsnhi9j9c/Draft-COVID-19-Model (13).pdf
https://www.bmj.com/content/368/bmj.m1216
If you know R0 and the average incubation period/time till death, you can loosely extrapolate large trends. It takes this long to kill, and we had our first death here on day D an d there were P patients on that day, and we assume Z amount of the population is 'highly susceptible' and then plug in the death rates correspondingly, so that means we probably had X amount of cases on day Y...
Looks like they made a couple of huge assumptions, particularly the one that Hunter mentions at the end.
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Who are you talking about now arnie?
But I think the chances of a vaccine coming in the next 5 years is vanishingly small. We don't have vaccines for Sars, Mers or common cold Coronaviruses. Despite what people say there have been ongoing efforts to develop these for many years, without success.
I think that hoping for a vaccine is like hoping for nuclear fusion technology so that climate change won't be a problem. It's possible, but not a planning scenario.
It doesn't matter if it's 95, 85, or any other percentage. They are asymptomatic and will have no bearing on hospital utilisation.
Knowing overall case numbers is useful for assessing effectiveness of control methods but you can take any sample size to do that. Total cases, symptomatic cases, 50% of total cases, whatever you want, as long as the sample stays consistent.
As long as everything remains constant then obviously not if the system can cope. There's several factors in play though. As far as I can gather the average ICU stay for covid19 is around a fortnight. For your example of 15 patients a day you need a spare 210 ICUs to cope - at which point your system will be at capacity within 14 days.
Yeah there’s no chance they have that few deaths when most of the population believe that if you just pray at the shrines in Najaf/Karbala, you’ll be cured of the “Karona” instantly
haha, I've defended Swedish expert scientific opinion. And the UK scientific opinion.
Now if it turns out the UK locked down too late, or that Sweden do it too late, I'm be the first to admit my trust was incorrectly placed.
But "worst" posts because I'm defending science is a bit rich when none of us know which country will come out of this best isn't it @Prometheus ?