Yet another obstacle to victory.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
It’s nothing like usual @Adamsk7. Yes, restaurants are open and have been made to split tables, chairs a metre apart etc, it’s table service only so “clubs” aren’t open as usual at all. Lots of small things have been introduced and we’ve been having about 200 cases a day for a week now so the experts are happy that we currently have a stable situation.
People are still making the mistake of thinking that we need to lock this down and that will somehow get rid of the virus; as the Swedish experts said again yesterday, this virus is going nowhere, it is with us and there are only two solutions to stop it, neither of those are lockdown.
The only thing a lockdown will do is give the health service time to breathe at a time when it needs it most.
The financial packages Sweden have come out with this past 10 days are massive towards stopping this. 14 days sick paid 100% by government, no sick note required amongst a tonne of other things.
We’re already already using the military to prepare a massive field hospital in Stockholm so don’t worry about us, we’re a nation that loves to keep our distance from each other at the best of times
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His mate just being a drama queen wanting a full lockdown whilst unaware of what lockdowns are meant to achieve.
I've been following your crazy escape for days! Godspeed!
Only a vaccine can deafeat this. And thats something the rich countries will have to do.
Our religious authorities have done it the right way. They told people to stay home, pray at home etc etc... Our people are just stubborn
This is behind a pay-wall so I can't read it but doesn't a computer model have to be based on real data for it to have any worth?
How is it relying on other models? What is the source of their data.
Without any hard data to back it up, isn't this pure conjecture?
It’s nothing like usual @Adamsk7. Yes, restaurants are open and have been made to split tables, chairs a metre apart etc, it’s table service only so “clubs” aren’t open as usual at all. Lots of small things have been introduced and we’ve been having about 200 cases a day for a week now so the experts are happy that we currently have a stable situation.
People are still making the mistake of thinking that we need to lock this down and that will somehow get rid of the virus; as the Swedish experts said again yesterday, this virus is going nowhere, it is with us and there are only two solutions to stop it, neither of those are lockdown.
The only thing a lockdown will do is give the health service time to breathe at a time when it needs it most.
The financial packages Sweden have come out with this past 10 days are massive towards stopping this. 14 days sick paid 100% by government, no sick note required amongst a tonne of other things.
We’re already already using the military to prepare a massive field hospital in Stockholm so don’t worry about us, we’re a nation that loves to keep our distance from each other at the best of times
Everything's fine. Your friend's a drama queen, and all the other countries are wrong. There's nothing to see here
Everything's fine. Your friend's a drama queen, and all the other countries are wrong. There's nothing to see here
eh? That’s not what I said AT ALL. I said, his mate is being a drama queen saying “things are like normal” because he obviously wants to see a full lockdown, they aren’t like normal at all, I fecking live here man, things are nothing like normal, far far from it.
The hard stats so far say that the situation in Sweden is stable, if people continue to follow the strict guidelines set out for them. Sweden have clearly stated many times that they will escalate when required, but what do you think a lockdown now would achieve for Sweden?
What are Sweden getting wrong so far in your expert opinion @Withnail?
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They're doing everything right and following expert advice, just like the UK before they changed tactic, eh?
Sweden are coming under some criticism for being too relaxed in their approach, when compared to other countries.
This thing can sneak up on you though and a lot can happen in two weeks. Granted the number of infections are still low, doesn't the recent spike in the number of deaths give you some cause for concern?
Huge amounts on the frontline workers and other NHS workers. They should be the priority. We’re only testing those with symptoms coming into the NHS. Should change next week.
Post test phase we need to the employ contact tracing to hunt down carriers.
Combined with social distancing isn't that exactly what we need to achieve?
The test at the minute can only confirm you actually have the infection. We need a test to show if you have had the infection but now recovered. That's the antibody test.
Even if you assume they are overstating the number of deaths cause by coronavirus, it’s definitely not by that much. And then you also have the argument of new cases appearing at a higher rate which is inexplicable if we assume 50% (or more in case of Italy who started earlier) had been sick already. Basically the whole argument they are making is utter trash and needs multiple far fetched assumptions to be even remotely close to working.
It might be the best episode ever of A Closer Look (focused on Trump's wish to open the country):
Once again I think you’re getting confused here.
All countries are following a timeline but Sweden are waaaaaaaay behind in their timeline compared to UK, Germany, France, what do you think a lockdown now at this early stage would achieve?
And don’t be telling me “we’re too relaxed”.
• we have told all over 70’s to isolate
• we have banned all public large gatherings
• we have given all citizens the right to 14 days paid sick leave with no doctors note if they feel the tiniest symptom.
• we open many food shops one hour early for risk groups
• we have brought in the military to build an enormous field hospital at the exhibition centre.
• cafes must have a designated ordering zone for one person, then markings a metre away where any queue must be split by a meter.
• we have a 14:00 daily press conference from the health ministry and government.
Lots of precautions and preparations are in place, but as I say, we are also aware that this virus is with us to stay until one of only two possible scenarios plays and the stats say we’re stable.
Sweden isn’t Italy, Spain, UK or Germany, it’s a vastly different and large country with a tiny population for it’s size.
Now when Swedish reaches a point where the numbers start to show the health service might start to struggle, they’ll go the next level in their timeline. This won’t be a change of plan, it’ll be the next stage, and I think this is what people are mistaking. A 12-14 month lockdown is simply not going to happen anywhere, and this isn’t one city like Wuhan with the World’s biggest military brought in to ensure a strict lockdown of that city.
How on Earth could you enforce such a lockdown on the UK, let alone Sweden which would be utterly impossible.
The lockdowns are to buy time, short term, and flatten the curve. Giving the health service time to breath, funding to be made, field hospitals to be built etc.
After the lockdowns it’ll all be about continuous social distancing and more testing, especially if this test for showing antibodies works. Trying to keep the numbers “stable” (like our CURRENT, important to note current, situation in Scandinavia) until one of the solutions presents itself.
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what will the lockdown achieve @Wibble?
Will it eliminate the virus? No
Will it help the health service currently? No
so what will it achieve?
It's all we can do until there's a vaccine.
So you suggest full lockdown for 14 months?
Society would fall apart.
Yup, and it’s complete fantasy land to suggest it could be policed in the UK, let alone a country the size of Sweden. As I posted above, we’re not talking about one Chinese city here and the World’s biggest military to enforce it.
People need to realize that lockdowns in Europe are a temporary measure only, in order to get more prepared and ease the strain on the health services.
The hope will be after the lockdown that better testing is in place and more possibilities that people understand what social distancing means and how important it will be for the next year. All countries in Europe will want a “stable” situation of patients, and if any country starts to spiral again, escalation measures will once again be put in place.
Schools/Uni's/Bars/Restaurants are all still operating right?
I said it was relaxed when compared with other countries. You're talking about so far so good when we're working off a two week delay before we see the effects of what we do today.
Full lockdown can be relaxed after a couple of weeks. However, not taking action quick enough can result in Italy/Spain levels. It's not like we've nothing to base this on.
Sure you might be ok but to me it's a big gamble.
The total number of deaths was 20 a few days ago and now it's 62. That suggests to me things aren't as stable as the number if detected infections suggests.
Unless there's some factor I'm not aware of.
Lockdown combined with social distancing, when you have to go out, will hugely help to prevent our health services becoming overwhelmed. We need lockdown and at least 80% compliance with social distancing.
High schools and Uni’s - nope, closed
Bars on table service only. And spaced apart seating.
Norway have gone full strict and look at their death rate. The death rate is simply a reflection of the patients and Sweden’s in patients are currently stable for a week after it had looked like spiraling out of control.
The likelihood of Sweden suddenly spiking after a week of stable is extremely low, not until because the stats and curve don’t back it up but because our society is nothing like Italy or Spain. So far we know that the majority of spread has been within the home right @Withnail ? And you know our big cities, the breeding grounds if you like, are famous for people leaving parental homes extremely early and barely ever flat sharing?
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Like if the entire population were to be infected?
How would you police that in Sweden for 12 months?
The experts here are fairly confident that we can remain stable by having social distancing in place and the financial incentives to stay off work with the even the tiniest sign of a symptom, that then our health services will not get overwhelmed. Especially so if we have the time to build the field hospitals were trying to build, recruit the way were trying to recruit, and bring in supplies the way we’re trying to bring in supplies.
If it becomes the case that it looks like they might get overwhelmed then yes of course stricter measures will be put in place.
My question to you is what is the point of lockdown when a country is in a stable situation?
Because make no mistake care all Europe is searching for now is stable situations, not to get rid of this virus.
British Steel is Scunthorpe works and the old long products division. All steel makers are being asked to continue production at the moment by the govt as steel shortages could stop transportation etc.
British Steel has just been taken out of liquidation by the Chinese and as a blast furnace it can't be just turned off and left. People are going to have to go in no matter what.
Not sure what the Norway reference means? We have like half your population but like 1/5 of your death rate thus far. We’re at 14, you guys are in the 60s, and were merely at 20 no less than five days ago.
100th case graph is more accurate. UK is not tracking Italy right now like the other graph people like to post, Spain is outpacing Italy and US with it's size of population and current spread, similar to other western countries is leading the way.
What could help US in lockdown is the large spaces between states and wide open areas that people live in excluding NY.
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Simply saying that our curves aren’t vastly different.
Norway has 3000 active cases, Sweden 2500. So as for deaths, there’s little to read into it at this point. But the curves are extremely similar.
That will come in time I think, either as a vaccine, and so infected with inactive virus, or the lockdown and social distancing will just stop being followed.
Is it just me or does “almost vertical” sound really daft? For it to become vertical, time would have to stop. If it actually got anywhere near “almost vertical” the entire population of the United States would be infected in a matter of hours.
@17 Van der Gouw, @Organic Potatoes
Thanks for the replies.
Trump is going to oversee the death of the most Americans on home soil ever, it seems.
Thanks for the replies.
Trump is going to oversee the death of the most Americans on home soil ever, it seems.
You guys have tested faaaaaar fewer people. Doesn’t the discrepancy in deaths make you wonder slightly?
A country with half your population has carried out 61,252 tests (as of the 23rd), you guys are at 24,500 (as of the 25th). You guys might have a bigger problem than you know. Same goes for us, but that’s why we slam on the breaks, so we can figure out what we’re dealing with, before we relax measures, rather than the inverse.
That's a frightening prospect. I think the best case scenario is that we go full lockdown to get this thing under control like the Asian countries, then relax a bit and see what happens. If it comes back then shut it down again. It will be annoying, but that's far better than an out of control outbreak. All eyes will be on Wuhan in the next few weeks as they slowly open back up the place where it all started to see what happens next.
@Revan, I watched all of that "A Closer Look". Very depressing when it's put that way.
The same way everywhere else is. Police backed by huge fines and even prison sentences.
Just maybe in such a small rich country but my inner skeptic is calling bullshit.
Because the time to act is while stability exists. By the time you suspect stability is in danger it is usually far too late.
And there is nothing like a health service being overwhelmed to cause instability.
Yeah, it's an exaggeration, clearly it's nowhere near vertical.
Time will tell I guess but I just don’t see Scandinavia having the problems of Spain & Italy, our society and wilderness is just on a completely different scale altogether. We have more lakes than people
Slamming on the brakes might be a great idea, But remember this virus came from one market in China, when you take the brakes off again what happens? You basically just kick the can down the road.
Unless of course you think you can keep those brakes on for a year until a vaccine is found.
Why. The rules and laws don't apply to them. They only apply to people like you and I.