SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[Tarrou]

The testing criteria aren’t consistent though. They vary, from country to country, and change over time. To be honest, I think the main reason governments focus on cases rather than deaths is a combination of not wanting to make the problem seem smaller than it is and not wanting to seem too morbid.

Here’s a good graph on deaths. Uk trending towards being possibly slightly worse than Italy but not as bad as Spain.

If you compare the earlier trajectory of Italy (no curvature for first 12 days) with the UK's, it looks like the UK's arc is beginning to curve sooner

It's probably blind optimism, to be honest, but I'm hopeful that the UK is trending to be better off than Italy

The US very worryingly seems to be trending in the other direction, and if the trend continues they will surely be the worst hit country

 

[Tarrou]

7k more tested

ahhh, not much we can discern in terms of progression if this if it doesn't cover 24 hours

 

[Pogue Mahone]

If you compare the earlier trajectory of Italy (no curvature for first 12 days) with the UK's, it looks like the UK's arc is beginning to curve sooner

It's probably blind optimism, to be honest, but I'm hopeful that the UK is trending to be better off than Italy

The US very worryingly seems to be trending in the other direction, and if the trend continues they will surely be the worst hit country

I think the UK should track better than Italy. They reacted later than they should have but probably still sooner than Italy, where it caught them a lot more unaware/earlier in the global crisis.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Bugzy malone aka clown face was speeding on his quad bike in a middle of a lockdown and now seems to have had a serious accident. Not going to pretend to fake sympathy for him because the cnut is going to take NHS resources when he really should have stayed at home and listened.

Who?

 

[Bojan11]

Source?

It’s all over Twitter.

 

[adexkola]

India seems to have some innovative means of stopping the spread of the virus.

Ah, memories. Had to do frog jumps in school as punishment.

 

[berbatrick]

Oh! That I can believe. I thought you meant in the past few weeks.

He said 2 weeks ago I think.

 

[Mr Pigeon]

Then move to a 'likeminded' affluent area with your new found fortune.

somewhere in the world there's a place where affluent and like minded cocknoses leave fancy breakfasts in hedges filled with money rolls protected by hurlshanks on a NATIONLEVEL
NATION
NATION
NATION LEVEL
NATIONAL LEVEL
NATIONAL LEVEL

SORRY ITS THE PHONE

 

[Dve]

A study from Oxford suggests that the virus spread from China one month earlier than first assumed, and that as much as half the English population already could be infected, and that most people have very small - or no symptoms at all. The study relies on computer modelling on numbers from Italy and England.

The researches behind this study do warn, however, that this is computer modelling, and not hard evidence. We need studies on a representative selection of the population and find out how many actually are infected, and how many have been infected by the virus. This can be done by blood testing, as there will be antibodies to the virus in your blood if you had it.

https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b

On Iceland, The Icelandic genetics company DeCode Genetics, reports to have tracked 40 mutations of the coronavirus in Iceland. They suggest that the virus is acting more like the flu, by becoming more infectious, but less harmfull with time, - which, according to them, is typical for viruses.

https://www.information.dk/indland/...ationer-coronavirus-alene-paa-island?lst_frnt

There is still so much we don´t know about this virus, but if the Oxford study can be backed up with real findings, that would be a total game changer. It would mean normal life and football soon to return.

 

[SambaBoy]

if you think it’s only the US and GB, then you’ve obviously not been to Australia. Social distancing seems to be a thing that as long as you don’t get in a sections of the populations way you can maintain it, but if you do get in their way they’ll walk straight into you.
People queuing outside of store before opening hours, mass gatherings in parks and beaches. The ignorance is wide spread. We’re in for a bad time, we just haven’t actually figured it out yet...

I agree with this. Australia seems so lax compared to what I have seen back home. People happily standing next to each other and just going about their business as normal.

 

[Blodssvik]

My best mate lives in Stockholm and says it’s just like a normal evening there tonight - bars, restaurants and clubs all open, trains as busy as usual, people walking the streets, hugging each other etc. Luckily he’s now WFH so hasn’t gone out much. He’s very worried it’s going to kick off big time there shortly.

Yeah that is a lie.

 

[Dve]

A study from Oxford suggests that the virus spread from China one month earlier than first assumed, and that as much as half the English population already could be infected, and that most people have very small - or no symptoms at all. The study relies on computer modelling on numbers from Italy and England.

The researches behind this study do warn, however, that this is computer modelling, and not hard evidence. We need studies on a representative selection of the population and find out how many actually are infected, and how many have been infected by the virus. This can be done by blood testing, as there will be antibodies to the virus in your blood if you had it.

https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b

On Iceland, The Icelandic genetics company DeCode Genetics, reports to have tracked 40 mutations of the coronavirus in Iceland. They suggest that the virus is acting more like the flu, by becoming more infectious, but less harmfull with time, - which, according to them, is typical for viruses.

https://www.information.dk/indland/...ationer-coronavirus-alene-paa-island?lst_frnt

There is still so much we don´t know about this virus, but if the Oxford study can be backed up with real findings, that would be a total game changer. It would mean normal life and football soon to return.

 

[Utdstar01]

What happened to the 10k-15k tests a day we were meant to be doing?

 

[jymufc20]

What happened to the 10k-15k tests a day we were meant to be doing?

How many have we been doing ?

 

[Utdstar01]

How many have we been doing ?

Did 7k In the last day. Of which 1,457 were tested positive.

 

[Wibble]

There is still so much we don´t know about this virus, but if the Oxford study can be backed up with real findings, that would be a total game changer. It would mean normal life and football soon to return.

If my grandmother had balls she would be my grandfather. I hope they are but ..........

 

[jymufc20]

Did 7k In the last day. Of which 1,457 were tested positive.

Probably a shortage of tests, makes you wonder how many cases are we missing.

 

[Utdstar01]

Probably a shortage of tests, makes you wonder how many cases are we missing.

Seems so going off of what's being reported. Whats really worrying is the lack of Ventillators. Apparently the NHS only has 8,000. Got an order with Dyson for 10,000 more but apparently it's just a prototype and will take 2 weeks for them to get it OK'd and start manufacturing a significant order. It's estimated we could need as many as 30,000 ventillators.

 

[Dante]

If my grandmother had balls she would be my grandfather. I hope they are but ..........

You hope that your grandmother had balls?

 

[Spiersey]

Surprised how little has been made of Prince Charles heading to Balmoral given the huge uproar at people heading to the Highlands and to Wales to try and escape Cities. It’s massive hypocrisy.
Balmoral area is a very old population (Braemar, Ballater etc). I know he won’t spend much, if any, time off the estate but the point still stands. The nearest Hospital is Aboyne, which will not be equipped to deal with corona virus patients I’m sure. My grandad was in there and was moved to Aberdeen when he became critical.

Would be nice to see wealthy people being held to the same standards they expect from normal people.

 

[Maluco]

A study from Oxford suggests that the virus spread from China one month earlier than first assumed, and that as much as half the English population already could be infected, and that most people have very small - or no symptoms at all. The study relies on computer modelling on numbers from Italy and England.

The researches behind this study do warn, however, that this is computer modelling, and not hard evidence. We need studies on a representative selection of the population and find out how many actually are infected, and how many have been infected by the virus. This can be done by blood testing, as there will be antibodies to the virus in your blood if you had it.

https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b

On Iceland, The Icelandic genetics company DeCode Genetics, reports to have tracked 40 mutations of the coronavirus in Iceland. They suggest that the virus is acting more like the flu, by becoming more infectious, but less harmfull with time, - which, according to them, is typical for viruses.

https://www.information.dk/indland/...ationer-coronavirus-alene-paa-island?lst_frnt

There is still so much we don´t know about this virus, but if the Oxford study can be backed up with real findings, that would be a total game changer. It would mean normal life and football soon to return.

It is a massive hope, but the only worry is that the UK still have a very large number of negative tests to positive ones.

How would that fit into the data?

Surely if there was more of it around, we would be seeing more positive tests?

 

[Wibble]

I agree with this. Australia seems so lax compared to what I have seen back home. People happily standing next to each other and just going about their business as normal.

It has been getting better in the last few days. In summary people are idiots.

 

[Wibble]

You hope that your grandmother had balls?

Yes

 

[Wibble]

Surprised how little has been made of Prince Charles heading to Balmoral given the huge uproar at people heading to the Highlands and to Wales to try and escape Cities. It’s massive hypocrisy.
Balmoral area is a very old population (Braemar, Ballater etc). I know he won’t spend much, if any, time off the estate but the point still stands. The nearest Hospital is Aboyne, which will not be equipped to deal with corona virus patients I’m sure. My grandad was in there and was moved to Aberdeen when he became critical.

Would be nice to see wealthy people being held to the same standards they expect from normal people.

The Royal family and hypocrisy go together like Andy and ...... forget it.

 

[711]

It is a massive hope, but the only worry is that the UK still have a very large number of negative tests to positive ones.

How would that fit into the data?

Surely if there was more of it around, we would be seeing more positive tests?

If half the population had it earlier we should have seen a huge number of hospitalisations and deaths earlier. We didn't, it's patently incorrect.

 

[Dante]

It is a massive hope, but the only worry is that the UK still have a very large number of negative tests to positive ones.

How would that fit into the data?

Surely if there was more of it around, we would be seeing more positive tests?

Tests aren't 100% accurate.

Some tests might be high specificity (lots of correctly identified negatives but might also give some false negatives). Others might be high sensitivity (lots of correctly identified positives but might also give some false positives). It's difficult to know where the UK's tests sit on those spectrums, especially in comparison to other nations.

 

[Camy89]

Very frustrating that Prince Charles has been tested and shown to be positive. He was exhibiting mild symptoms and therefore doesn't fall into the remit of requiring testing - just 7 days isolation.

It's frustrating because even at the sign of mild symptoms the Crown receives a test at the drop of a hat, the frontline NHS staff? Nope.

That said, we believe there is a testing centre being set up outside our hospital. Unsure yet whether this is for staff or just public.

Edit: Just read @Spiersey comment, totally agree. 100%.

 

[17 Van der Gouw]

I'm centrist to center-right, but I'll be the first to admit that Donald Trump is a disaster as President during the pandemic. All of this stuff about being open for business in three weeks is ridiculous, and some of his supporters crowing that the elderly should be happy to die to allow the economy to continue as usual is disgusting.

Regarding NYC needing more ventilators:

Trump told Fox: “It’s a two-way street, they have to treat us well also. They can’t say, Oh gee we should get this, we should get that"

They are to protect your citizens from dying, feckwit!

 

[Camy89]

It is a massive hope, but the only worry is that the UK still have a very large number of negative tests to positive ones.

How would that fit into the data?

Surely if there was more of it around, we would be seeing more positive tests?

I would take the amount of negative tests with a pinch of salt. 20% false negative rate was the last I heard. We've had to test a few patients here twice, just to make sure, which isn't ideal due to supplies.

 

[Camy89]

I'm centrist to center-right, but I'll be the first to admit that Donald Trump is a disaster as President during the pandemic. All of this stuff about being open for business in three weeks is ridiculous, and some of his supporters crowing that the elderly should be happy to die to allow the economy to continue as usual is disgusting.

Regarding NYC needing more ventilators:

Trump told Fox: “It’s a two-way street, they have to treat us well also. They can’t say, Oh gee we should get this, we should get that"

They are to protect your citizens from dying, feckwit!

I love Schadenfreude (of Trump) so would be interested to see what would happen if you did open back up for business. However, I also love people living, so I'm going to have to err on the side of him not getting humble pie and America correctly isolating and locking down where necessary. God help you.

 

[BluesJr]

I’m sure it’s been discussed but isn’t this idea of having millions of antibody tests available in the next few weeks complete fantasy? Just doesn’t seem legit at all.

 

[Dve]

I would take the amount of negative tests with a pinch of salt. 20% false negative rate was the last I heard. We've had to test a few patients here twice, just to make sure, which isn't ideal due to supplies.

We need blood tests really. That would give us a better idea.

 

[Camy89]

We need blood tests really. That would give us a better idea.

Reckon pricing would be the issue with that one. I'd shudder to think the price of the assay needed for that one.

 

[Camy89]

I’m sure it’s been discussed but isn’t this idea of having millions of antibody tests available in the next few weeks complete fantasy? Just doesn’t seem legit at all.

Unless it differentiates between active and past infection , the antibody tests are borderline useless anyway. If it just comes up 'positive', that would probably cause more issues than it solves.

 

[Dve]

Reckon pricing would be the issue with that one. I'd shudder to think the price of the assay needed for that one.

You don´t need to test the whole population, just a representative selection. A few thousands will do.

 

[berbatrick]

First the anecdote:


Now the article:
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/nidhiprakash/coronavirus-update-dead-covid19-doctors-hospitals

When's the data?

 

[Suedesi]

I don't see why people fall for these clickbait articles. What do two American academics know about the UK's situation and policymaking? Next to nothing. Just because you're an expert in one thing doesn't mean you're an expert in everything.

What a stupid response

 

[Ian Reus]

The Royal family and hypocrisy go together like Andy and ...... forget it.

Prince Charles is isolated at balmoral with Covid-19 while Andrew is isolated at Windsor with Corva-14.

 

[sglowrider]

Last I saw was 1.8 million from our projections.

Which is still a horrendous number, of course.

Trump will make sure its booked under the seasonal flu as cause of death.

 

[Dr. Dwayne]

Trump will make sure its booked under President Obama as cause of death.

Fixed.