How are Germany’s numbers so much better than elsewhere?
Damn, wishing you the best recovery man. Be wellFear I may have it. Have had a dry cough for 12 days now (self isolated immediately save grocery runs which I’m regretting now), recently got diarrhea and this dull pain in the chest (no breathing difficulty). Sense of taste and smell still there. No fever either
Not serious enough to get a test though (am 30)
Hard to say while it is still spreading, but there are some data points which might explain the relatively low fatality numbers so far(though they are still going to be horrible). In terms of testing, 'we' appear to be more active than the other European countries, according to Politico() 200k test are done each week, compared to ~300k tests in Italy and ~90k tests in the UK so far in total. According to Prof Drosten, head of the centre for virology at the Charité, Germany has several advantages in regards to diagnostics, equipment and personnel with the necessary knowhow. Furthermore, Germany has more critical care beds/capita than the other european nations(https://i.redd.it/0fs0pfeocrm41.png) with roughly 29/100k compared to ~13 in Italy and ~6.5 in the UK(it is split between the 4 British nations, so that number may be inaccurate). Luckily, there hasn't been a case of a doctor being forced to decide who is going to be ventilated so far and some Italian and French patients were flown in to alleviate the stress on their health care system, it will still be rough for all of us.
Fear I may have it. Have had a dry cough for 12 days now (self isolated immediately save grocery runs which I’m regretting now), recently got diarrhea and this dull pain in the chest (no breathing difficulty). Sense of taste and smell still there. No fever either
Not serious enough to get a test though (am 30)
CheersDamn, wishing you the best recovery man. Be well
Yep. Living alone so asked a friend to keep checking in on me via WhatsApp at 12 hour intervalsOnce you start having difficulty breathing seek help.
If America do not follow the isolation process, what are the projections for cases/deaths?
Why? Nothing I've read says that being healthy and young makes you immune to die from this.
Actually China's numbers are widely believed to be roughly accurate.Except nobody believes China numbers including the Chinese so lets send a rumor this virus was created by the states. This pandemic was the wake up call for the west and China's growing will suffer in the future because I'm sure the west will move some important manufacturing back to the countries. Look to US with shortage of respirators, masks and ventilators, with Ford and Tesla making ventilators since they come from China and their government took over of any medical supplies made there.
Yep. Living alone so asked a friend to keep checking in on me via WhatsApp at 12 hour intervals
You are not immune but for a healthy 21 year old not employed in the medical profession to die from it would be a huge statistical outlier.
Isn't viral load a factor here?
I didn't know that it was stopped in the South. Apparently the reason no one even tried to stop it in Somaliland is because doing so would cause war with the government and the sub-tribes of the main importers. A tribal cartel, basically. The myth I was referring to is the last one you mentioned. Some moronic preachers have been telling people that this disease is a curse from Allah to the Chinese for their treatment of Uighur people, and that Muslims are immune to it (presumably in this 'logic' Iranians get it because they are Shia, not Sunni). It's baffling that mosques would be open!I heard Farmajo stopped the import of Kenyan khat. This plant is a certified drug everywhere else in the world except in Eastern Africa and Yemen. At least now in Djibouti there is a curfew, the army is present and people are put straight to jail if they are seen at night but I feel like it's too late.
Regarding the myths, you're unfortunately right, people think the sun/heat will protect them whereas they know Saudia Arabia is on lockdown, the Mekkah is on lockdown too. Many of them do not know about the concept "asymptomatic carrier", for them if you cough you are sick, if you don't then you are fine. Many pricks think they have a special protection from God and therefore they still have to pray in groups, they don't realize how selfish they are actually.
I don't think localized data for NI is available AFAIK
It's for NHS local authorities. My county if Dorset has one authority while the main conurbation in Dorset is under another authority.
It says on the site that NI don't supply regional figures.
See nobody cares discussing Scandinavia
We are on our own here
On a serious note, what path are Sweden following?
Unfortunately, my understanding of this subject is rather limited and that's why I chucked a question at yours as a possible explanation. Perhaps someone with more knowledge of it can shed some more light on it.I only have a basic understanding of it so I dunno, maybe? I would have thought that as well as decreasing symptoms a lower viral load would also decrease shedding and the R0 would decrease. Is there some study or other that finds folk on the Diamond Princess were exposed to an abnormally large amount?
If America do not follow the isolation process, what are the projections for cases/deaths?
Last I saw was 1.8 million from our projections.Imperial College projected that if America take the 'carry on as normal' approach, it could be anywhere up to 4 million will die.
Today’s death toll reported from Stockholm area is 18 and Norway 14 so far in total. Maybe Sweden needs to review their approach!I care, they are quite likely to get things right, and also look after their people the best.
Sweden is an odd one though, only from reports I cannot validate in any way, but a report from today for example.
'Sweden will permit restaurants, bars and primary schools to remain open, with gatherings of 500 people or more still allowed to take place'
So they seem to have taken the view to bring in less drastic changes, but still advise to stay at home if you are ill, walk a metre apart, and have closed secondary schools, etc, this to see a ' slow and steady increase in cases, but not overwhelm the health service', these rules are obviously very relaxed compared with most others though, but it's impossible at this point to say they are wrong.
How would this study account for the much larger proportion of hospitalisations seen on the Diamond Princess?
The mosques are closed but it doesn't stop people from praying together and very close to each other. They think their faith is a shield against Corona or something. I respect their faith but this is just reckless and ignorant on so many levels since if they wanna follow the religion, they should know that in a situation like this, people are told to pray on their own.I didn't know that it was stopped in the South. Apparently the reason no one even tried to stop it in Somaliland is because doing so would cause war with the government and the sub-tribes of the main importers. A tribal cartel, basically. The myth I was referring to is the last one you mentioned. Some moronic preachers have been telling people that this disease is a curse from Allah to the Chinese for their treatment of Uighur people, and that Muslims are immune to it (presumably in this 'logic' Iranians get it because they are Shia, not Sunni). It's baffling that mosques would be open!
I suppose. What do you think of the Iranian numbers? 11 professional athletes looks way too high for the total official numbers!You are not immune but for a healthy 21 year old not employed in the medical profession to die from it would be a huge statistical outlier.
Fear I may have it. Have had a dry cough for 12 days now (self isolated immediately save grocery runs which I’m regretting now), recently got diarrhea and this dull pain in the chest (no breathing difficulty). Sense of taste and smell still there. No fever either
Not serious enough to get a test though (am 30)
Today’s death toll reported from Stockholm area is 18 and Norway 14 so far in total. Maybe Sweden needs to review their approach!
I suppose. What do you think of the Iranian numbers? 11 professional athletes looks way too high for the total official numbers!
Wasnt it just day before yesterday the US death toll was <500?
Yeah, that renders mosques being closed useless. I agree. This is where religious authorities being proactive and knowledgeable about things would help, but instead many of them are spewing the most unhelpful advise possible.The mosques are closed but it doesn't stop people from praying together and very close to each other. They think their faith is a shield against Corona or something. I respect their faith but this is just reckless and ignorant on so many levels since if they wanna follow the religion, they should know that in a situation like this, people are told to pray on their own.
This makes no sense whatsoever from mathematics point of view. 7.5k people have died in Italy so far, less than 500 in UK. That means how many people would have got sick to get to that many deaths in Italy, 400 million? Even if you factor in demographics it makes no sense that Lombardy alone has several times death toll of UK and cases keep piling up. It’s one thing to argue that there are more cases than reported, which is certainly true, and another to put a realistic number on this assumption. 50% of population is just thick guess.Oxford University study.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b
"The new coronavirus may already have infected far more people in the UK than scientists had previously estimated — perhaps as much as half the population — according to modelling by researchers at the University of Oxford.
If the results are confirmed, they imply that fewer than one in a thousand of those infected with Covid-19 become ill enough to need hospital treatment, said Sunetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology, who led the study. The vast majority develop very mild symptoms or none at all."
Are they not going to release the figures for England tonight?
Diamond Princess population not very representative of the community at large. Greater proportion of elderly people and (I think?) no kids at all.
