SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[11101]

743 dead in Italy today... Oh i was thinking the curve will go down or at least flatten a little

The number of dead is the least relevant for tracking the progress. First it's active cases (to assess healthcare capacity), second it's progression of new cases (to track containment measures), and deaths are last because there's not much you can do about them barring improving the first two.


@TMDaines see above in relation to your comment. Deaths make people sit up and notice but they are the least important of the 3 measures to the government trying to bring it under control here.

 

[bond19821982]

​

UK Dates​	UK Deaths​	Italy Dates​	Italy Deaths​	Spain Dates​	Spain Deaths​	France Dates​	France Deaths​
March 8th​	3​	Feb 23rd​	3​	March 5th​	3​	March 2nd​	3​
March 9th​	5​	Feb 24th​	7​	March 6th​	8​	March 3rd​	4​
March 10th​	6​	Feb 25th​	11​	March 7th​	10​	March 4th​	4​
March 11th​	8​	Feb 26th​	12​	March 8th​	17​	March 5th​	7​
March 12th​	10​	Feb 27th​	17​	March 9th​	30​	March 6th​	9​
March 13th​	11​	Feb 28th​	21​	March 10th​	36​	March 7th​	16​
March 14th​	21​	Feb 29th​	29​	March 11th​	55​	March 8th​	19​
March 15th​	35​	March 1st​	41​	March 12th​	86​	March 9th​	30​
March 16th​	55​	March 2nd​	52​	March 13th​	133​	March 10th​	33​
March 17th​	71​	March 3rd​	79​	March 14th​	196​	March 11th​	48​
March 18th​	104​	March 4th​	107​	March 15th​	294​	March 12th​	61​
March 19th​	144​	March 5th​	148​	March 16th​	342​	March 13th​	79​
March 20th​	177​	March 6th​	197​	March 17th​	533​	March 14th​	91​
March 21st​	233​	March 7th​	233​	March 18th​	638​	March 15th​	127​
March 22nd​	281​	March 8th​	366​	March 19th​	833​	March 16th​	148​
March 23rd​	335​	March 9th​	463​	March 20th​	1,093​	March 17th​	175​
March 24th​	422​	March 10th​	631​	March 21st​	1,381​	March 18th​	244​
​	​	March 11th​	827​	March 22nd​	1,813​	March 19th​	372​
​	​	March 12th​	1,016​	March 23rd​	2,207​	March 20th​	450​
​	​	March 13th​	1,266​	March 24th​	2,696​	March 21st​	562​
​	​	March 14th​	1,441​	​	​	March 22nd​	674​
​	​	March 15th​	1,809​	​	​	March 23rd​	860​

​

Great one. Did you create this ? Is there a number for US and India as well ?

 

[Paxi]

I find some people’s obsession with telling people there is no shortage of toilet roll or anything fecking annoying.

There may be loads somewhere to people are struggling to find it, therefore there’s a shortage when it comes to availability.

Just people desperate to be right and have a point.

You're sitting on a toilet with no toilet paper left aren't you?

 

[Drawfull]

Obviously the jump in deaths is horrible but it doesn't quite look as bad of a jump as I thought it would be today. It's such a weird situation being as we're not on total lockdown and we have people in this thread saying that they're being forced to go into work, that the tube is still packed etc.

You'll end up with a lockdown similar to here or Italy; in a way I understand the staggered approach, but the converse of that is I think the stagger is too spaced out.

 

[Smores]

Hopefully this stops the moronic posts about GOOD NEWS FROM XYZ based on one or two new data points and the lesson can be learnt.

Yeah the numbers at this point are never going to be uniform and they'll be random little trends that no one can explain.

 

[horsechoker]

Hopefully this stops the moronic posts about GOOD NEWS FROM XYZ based on one or two new data points and the lesson can be learnt.

It is slightly down from yesterday and is the third day of decrease for new cases but obviously the situation is far from good.

 

[TMDaines]

Can't believe that there is an ice-cream van outside my house. Self-employed, I guess.

 

[saivet]

 

[Snafu17]

743 dead in Italy today... Oh i was thinking the curve will go down or at least flatten a little

Deaths are always going to trail the infections.

 

[Hound Dog]

Hopefully this stops the moronic posts about GOOD NEWS FROM XYZ based on one or two new data points and the lesson can be learnt.

Nope, deaths are a consequence of the number of cases. People discovered xy days ago will be dying today. What we should be looking at are new cases.

 

[vodrake]

It is slightly down from yesterday and is the third day of decrease for new cases but obviously the situation is far from good.

Both no. of deaths and no. of new cases in Italy rose today from yesterday according to worldometers. 5249 new cases today compared to 4789 yesterday. 743 deaths compared to 601 yesterday

 

[Sweet Square]

It's not. I'm still working and we are in no way essential to the public. It's actually beyond ridiculous that I'm risking my safety for this...

Sorry to hear this. Hope everything goes well.

 

[Revan]

Hopefully this stops the moronic posts about GOOD NEWS FROM XYZ based on one or two new data points and the lesson can be learnt.

I think the number of new cases is again down from yesterday, which makes it the third day in a row. It probably is a trend.

The number of deaths at this stage does not show too much. That is the people who got infected 2-3 weeks ago. The number of new cases (providing that enough testing is being done) is the most important metric.

 

[Paxi]

 

[berbatrick]

Same thing happening near my apartment (not in NYC) too, it makes no sense.

 

[Snafu17]

Yeah the numbers at this point are never going to be uniform and they'll be random little trends that no one can explain.

The numbers are not increasing as fast as they were which is a start.

There's also not a lot of data points.

 

[Grinner]

Mi ha rotto il cazzo

I'm definitely keeping that one.

 

[DOTA]

No PM today?

 

[Ekkie Thump]

That site is taking an age to load. Hopefully it's chock full of volunteers.

 

[VeevaVee]

You're sitting on a toilet with no toilet paper left aren't you?

I’m printing pictures of @esmufc07 off

 

[Grinner]

Are the Gov. keeping track of all of those who recover? Presumably these folks can be put to work in essential areas if fit and able since they now have immunity.

 

[11101]

I think the number of new cases is again down from yesterday, which makes it the third day in a row. It probably is a trend.

The number of deaths at this stage does not show too much. That is the people who got infected 2-3 weeks ago. The number of new cases (providing that enough testing is being done) is the most important metric.

New cases are up from yesterday but still down on the days before.

Active cases are down for the third day in a row which is what the government really cares about this point.

 

[VeevaVee]

Same thing happening near my apartment (not in NYC) too, it makes no sense.

My mate, who is a domestic sparky, was asked to come in because the government hadn’t said otherwise. Thankfully his boss understood when he explained his girlfriend has breathing difficulties sometimes and he can’t risk it.

As if domestic sparky work is important right now. It’s like some people can’t figure anything out without being told directly. I realise in some cases it’s greed (big construction) or a need to earn still, but that’s the second case today that someone I know can’t make the correct decision that doesn’t fall in to those categories. In recent years it’s become so apparent how dumb this country is.

 

[Skills]

Number of deaths is a lot harder to model than no. of cases. When I was looking at China's data, it seems like the total number of active cases peaked about 5 days after the 'peak' number of new cases. But they made that very difficult to calculate by changing the testing criteria.

So things are still about to get worse for Italy in terms of strain on the healthcare system, but they should start easing up from next week.

 

[Paxi]

Are the Gov. keeping track of all of those who recover? Presumably these folks can be put to work in essential areas if fit and able since they now have immunity.

I don't think there is enough data regarding immunity. There is speculation that the virus can lay dormant in ones body after all they symptoms have gone and the patients tested negative.

 

[Paxi]

 

[Berbaclass]

I like this guy.

 

[Skills]

New cases are up from yesterday but still down on the days before.

Active cases are down for the third day in a row which is what the government really cares about this point.

You mean the increase in active cases or total active cases are down?

 

[Dr. Dwayne]

I like this guy.

Cuomo Bros

 

[11101]

Number of deaths is a lot harder to model than no. of cases. When I was looking at China's data, it seems like the total number of active cases peaked about 5 days after the 'peak' number of new cases. But they made that very difficult to calculate by changing the testing criteria.

So things are still about to get worse for Italy in terms of strain on the healthcare system, but they should start easing up from next week.

Yes, there are far too many variables and unknowns to model deaths accurately, especially between countries. There's a reason governments report deaths last. Active cases and new cases are their priority.

By far Italy's major concern at the moment is to bring the number of active cases down and relieve strain on the hospitals.

You mean the increase in active cases or total active cases are down?

The increase is down.

 

[Mr Pigeon]

My mate, who is a domestic sparky, was asked to come in because the government hadn’t said otherwise. Thankfully his boss understood when he explained his girlfriend has breathing difficulties sometimes and he can’t risk it.

As if domestic sparky work is important right now. It’s like some people can’t figure anything out without being told directly. I realise in some cases it’s greed (big construction) or a need to earn still, but that’s the second case today that someone I know can’t make the correct decision without falling in to those categories. In recent years it’s become so apparent how dumb this country is.

Everyone thinks that their job is important. Sparkies, truck drivers, and all the other unskilled jobs like managing directors or cock noses. The sad truth is that these people are in jobs that we don't need or care about. Also included in that category are golfers, sock puppeteers and me.

 

[redshaw]

Great one. Did you create this ? Is there a number for US and India as well ?

No, someone else did the table but I just updated it. UK and Italy death tolls were matching for a bit when adjusted and looked ominous and this is just comparing major European nations of similar size.

India is still very early and US is very lopsided with New York and still early with testing considering the population. Perhaps later on India, China, US and Europe might be worth comparing.

 

[horsechoker]

Both no. of deaths and no. of new cases in Italy rose today from yesterday according to worldometers. 5249 new cases today compared to 4789 yesterday. 743 deaths compared to 601 yesterday

According to the Italian media there were 3612 new cases compared to 3780 yesterday. Its a small decrease but its the third decrease in a row

 

[iKnowNothing]

Has the virus been completely contained in China? I read somewhere that the lockdown is getting (or has been) removed. Does it mean that if people hunker down for two months, the virus just “goes away”?

 

[spiriticon]

Ack... Italy up in cases and deaths again.

Man I just want to see this end.

 

[TMDaines]

According to the Italian media there were 3612 new cases compared to 3780 yesterday. Its a small decrease but its the third decrease in a row

It is an utterly meaningless decrease.

 

[Drawfull]

Has the virus been completely contained in China? I read somewhere that the lockdown is getting (or has been) removed. Does it mean that if people hunker down for two months, the virus just “goes away”?

No there will be new cases, but they hope that they will be at a manageable level, where they can contact trace to put said contacts into lockdown to minimise the spread.

 

[sun_tzu]

USA reporting more new cases than anybody... And trump saying he wants to get people back to work...
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
It's gonna be a horrer show if he gets his way isn't it

 

[Paxi]

Really impressed with my local supermarket in my village. Only letting 4-5 people in at the time. The rest have to queue outside 2 meters apart. Hand sanitizer is dispensed by one of the staff before anyone can enter. In the shop people have to stay two meters apart. And all the staff are frequently using hand sanitizer as well. Very reassuring.

 

[Beans]

Might be alone in thinking there has been a massive cover-up in the numbers that have died.

I think so too.