SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[VP89]

My wife works at a hospital and said 2 patients might not make it anymore with the virus. Both in late 50s and neither with any underlying respiratory issues. Blood pressure and diabetes. That's all.

Really scary stuff.

 

[sullydnl]

 

[Scrumpet]

Problem with the UK's testing giving that many positive hits is that aren't they now supposed to be focusing primarily on NHS workers?

They made assurances that they would be doing it but didn't say when. They also said they'd be ramping up testing which obviously hit a bump in the road yesterday.

If they're still focussing on testing inpatients it would explain the hit rate, but not why there was such a drop off in the total carried out.

 

[Dr. Dwayne]

I'd be more concerned about gig economy workers than the self-employed. But the income protection is a very good start.

This is the perfect time to implement UBI.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

My wife works at a hospital and said 2 patients might not make it anymore with the virus. Both in late 50s and neither with any underlying respiratory issues. Blood pressure and diabetes. That's all.

Really scary stuff.

Blood pressure, diabetes and heat disease are the three comorbidities most commonly found in people that die from this. Nearly all people that die from it have a comorbidity.

Problem for Boris is that he’s being completely upstaged by his deputy.

 

[ivaldo]

Very relieved to see the government pledges on wage. It was expected but not unwelcome. Our agency has been on the precipice of ceasing for the past week. I can now fully isolate with family without any immediate concern.

 

[dwd]

Very relieved to see the government pledges on wage. It was expected but not unwelcome. Our agency has been on the precipice of ceasing for the past week. I can now fully isolate with family without any immediate concern.

Nice. Wish I was in the same position

 

[Pagh Wraith]

 

[2cents]

Friday night Bingo in the flats in Ringsend in Dublin:

 

[RedTiger]

Straight up, if we manage to return to normality by this winter then Rishi might be odds on for next PM

 

[ha_rooney]

 

[dumbo]

Well the government can’t be blamed for not doing anything now. Huge things being done by them. Hopefully this calms everyone down.

You lot are fecking dangerous.

 

[sullydnl]

Problem for Boris is that he’s being completely upstaged by his deputy.

People seem to have responded positively to Sunak because he's at least capable of striking a more statesman like tone when speaking, as below. I don't think Boris would be capable of striking that tone as the semi-smirking, misbehaving schoolchild image he projects robs him of gravitas. While that has worked for him in other contexts, it's hindering him now.

 

[horsechoker]

I thought that was Rooney for a second

 

[utdalltheway]

I’m saying on mass people will eventually grow tired of the measures and frustration and anger will kick in. It’s highly likely to reach that point.

Churchgoers shouldn’t be the problem, but you never know. Pray that virus away!

 

[Ekkie Thump]

Newbie @mehdimike has asked me to relay this question...

Do any of you know any statistics about the rate of recovered asthmatics? (For Covid-19)

The poster is from Iran and his father has asthma, which is prompting the question.

I've been looking into this a bit due to my brother being asthmatic (and a carefree asshat). There isn't anything definitive, but it seems to very much depend on how serious your asthma is along with how old you are. If you have poorly controlled asthma or have to take steroid pills then the NHS defines you along with COPD sufferers as being in a high risk group. Those that are inhaler only are not given any specific guidance other than to be wary.

Actual research is thin on the ground and I haven't managed to come across a study that specifically isolates asthmatics as a group, let alone stratifies them by severity. The nearest I've got is this study that I posted on March 11th: Comorbidity and its impact on 1,590 patients with COVID-19 in China: A Nationwide Analysis

Here's the relevant table from that study (need to remember that it is a very rough guide):

As you can see Asthma isn't covered, only people with COPD. What this basically says is that people with COPD are roughly 2.681 times more likely to die than a healthy person in the same age group. So as a best guess if I'm 30 and suffer from COPD I have a 0.2 x 2.681 = 0.54% and chance of dying. Note the confidence interval is very wide indeed here, and the study can only say with 95% certainty that the true hazard ratio lies somewhere between 1.424 and 5.048.

This doesn't correspond 1:1 to the hazard ratio associated with severe asthma and represents the very worst estimate an asthma sufferer would have. It will vastly overstate the risk associated with milder asthma. In terms of studies around this area though it's the best I've got as of now.

It's also important to note that there is no evidence of people with asthma being more prone to contracting the disease, and that Asthma UK and ACAII (the American one) both say that there is no elevated risk from continuing to take your medication.

@mehdimike

 

[Ludens the Red]

Are these random tests of general population, or tests of people with coronavirus symptoms?

If it's tests of people with symptoms, then 30% isn't too bad.

If it's testing the general population with or without symptoms, 30% would be a staggeringly high number.

30% infection rate from only 2000 tests suggests the numbers in the UK are a lot, lot higher than what's currently being reported.

Only people with strong or severe symptoms that tick the corona box I’d imagine, or if you’ve got lots of money like a footballer....
The criteria for being tested has clearly been narrowed. My ex’s mum had a bad cough and breathing difficulties a few days back but no fever or temperature so they didn’t test her or take her into hospital and said it’s probably a chest infection. Apparently the LAS crew came out in fully protective gear. In a perfect world we’d test everybody but we clearly don’t have the resources so it makes sense testing in a box ticking sort of way.

 

[Skills]

We've caught some affluent and like minded individuals.

 

[Fully Fledged]

As stupid as they look? No one can be that stupid surely.

 

[BeforeKeanetherewasRobson]

Churchgoers shouldn’t be the problem, but you never know. Pray that virus away!

Mother and father in law went to church last Sunday. They do this thing where they take a minute to hug everyone near them each service and despite clear advice on how to engage with other people, still did it this week. Idiots

I told them not to bother asking to come to my house to see kids... if they can't be arsed to avoid dozens of people, don't see why me/my family should increase our risk.

Sure they'll be ok though, their faith will beat Covid 19

 

[Berbaclass]

We've caught some affluent and like minded individuals.

FFS

 

[dwd]

 

[Dr. Dwayne]

We've caught some affluent and like minded individuals.

 

[Fully Fledged]

Friday night Bingo in the flats in Ringsend in Dublin:

They can't leave us in such suspense was the check right? Did they have a house?

 

[Ubik]

Is it worth having separate threads for the economic and health sides of things? Might be easier for people to follow given the fast moving nature of what are essentially two crises happening simultaneously.

(posted in correct thread this time)

 

[Robbie Boy]

Friday night Bingo in the flats in Ringsend in Dublin:

Ffs that's gas.

 

[horsechoker]

Is it worth having separate threads for the economic and health sides of things? Might be easier for people to follow given the fast moving nature of what are essentially two crises happening simultaneously.

(posted in correct thread this time)

I'm wondering if we should have a corona virus sub-forum

 

[Classical Mechanic]

People seem to have responded positively to Sunak because he's at least capable of striking a more statesman like tone when speaking, as below. I don't think Boris would be capable of striking that tone as the semi-smirking, misbehaving schoolchild image he projects robs him of gravitas. While that has worked for him in other contexts, it's hindering him now.

I saw some of his budget delivery in parliament and he was very impressive. People were calling him the next PM after that too.

Boris is great for the bluster of Brexit, the boundless optimism but he is out of his depth in this grave moment.

 

[Brwned]

Don’t think that’s what I said at all is it? I am speaking only in relation to social distancing/shutdown. I literally say in my post there are not going to be any set right or wrong ways to do things, as we’re all going to be fecked one way or another. That’s just a fact.
There’s people on here slagging off old people for going out shopping , slagging people off for going to work, being on the streets and going the gym. Calling people killers amongst others things. Saying the government should have locked down at ‘this time’, calling for draconian measures etc etc. This is what I refer to when I say “experts”. To me it doesn’t look as if these people are able to see the bigger picture.

The experts in this country, as well as the vast majority of other countries facing this in a serious way, have said not to go to the gyms, not to hang out out on the streets, not to go out for non-essential shopping etc. They're not saying there's no right or wrong answers, they've said conclusively that this is the wrong thing to do and they've taken increasingly drastic measures to impose that. They've done this after extensive analysis of the economic, social and medical effects of various strategies. Do you think it is wrong to disregard this?

 

[Penna]

Very relieved to see the government pledges on wage. It was expected but not unwelcome. Our agency has been on the precipice of ceasing for the past week. I can now fully isolate with family without any immediate concern.

Good, that's some better news for you.

 

[Dr. Dwayne]

People seem to have responded positively to Sunak because he's at least capable of striking a more statesman like tone when speaking, as below. I don't think Boris would be capable of striking that tone as the semi-smirking, misbehaving schoolchild image he projects robs him of gravitas. While that has worked for him in other contexts, it's hindering him now.

Toryism with a human face?

 

[Samid]

 

[arnie_ni]

You lot are fecking dangerous.

Eh?

 

[arnie_ni]

The other 2 they had on were even worse

 

[Ekkie Thump]

I've been looking into this a bit due to my brother being asthmatic (and a carefree asshat). There isn't anything definitive, but it seems to very much depend on how serious your asthma is along with how old you are. If you have poorly controlled asthma or have to take steroid pills then the NHS defines you along with COPD sufferers as being in a high risk group. Those that are inhaler only are not given any specific guidance other than to be wary.

Actual research is thin on the ground and I haven't managed to come across a study that specifically isolates asthmatics as a group, let alone stratifies them by severity. The nearest I've got is this study that I posted on March 11th: Comorbidity and its impact on 1,590 patients with COVID-19 in China: A Nationwide Analysis

Here's the relevant table from that study (need to remember that it is a very rough guide):

As you can see Asthma isn't covered, only people with COPD. What this basically says is that people with COPD are roughly 2.681 times more likely to die than a healthy person in the same age group. Note the confidence interval is very wide indeed here, and the study can only say with 95% certainty that the true hazard ratio lies somewhere between 1.424 and 5.048.

This doesn't correspond 1:1 to the hazard ratio associated with severe asthma and represents the very worst estimate an asthma sufferer would have. It will vastly overstate the risk associated with milder asthma. In terms of studies around this area though it's the best I've got as of now.

It's also important to note that there is no evidence of people with asthma being more prone to contracting the disease, and that Asthma UK and ACAII (the Yank one) both say that there is no elevated risk from continuing to take your medication.

@mehdimike

Sorry @mehdimike there is also this study that attempts to derive the general mortality rate by age. I posted it earlier: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0822-7.

You can use that in conjunction with the study I posted above to derive a very rough understanding of the risks this poses to your dad. Remember it likely overstates the risk. Below is the relevant chart listing the case fatality rate (CFR) for different age groups.

Spoiler: large chart of the study's findings

 

[Hugh Jass]

It is scary how stupid some people are. Just ridiculous.

 

[Moiraine]

I genuinely feel sorry for people like you.

WTF? You feel sorry for him for actually having a grasp of how things work?

Please don’t fight.

Van der Gouw can you explain your theory how lockdown from day zero isn’t a good strategy?
Don’t you think a 2-3 weeks Quarantine in the beginning and strict control on incomings is more appropriate?

 

[ivaldo]

Good, that's some better news for you.

Thanks Penna. It's a nice reprieve!

 

[Wumminator]

I really hope that the measures started today don’t work for people who have gone out tonight. I genuinely think they should not have the protection society gives if they’ve been that selfish.

 

[Igor Drefljak]

So this 80%
I work in a place that can still operate for now, but I also have to take blood pressure tablets.

If I decide I should self isolate as I also live with a person over the age of 70, who has CPOD, am I able to get this 80% wage relief?