SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

It’s 2020 - surely staying at home for a few weeks without getting bored couldn’t be any easier?

The one thing the Brits are really good at is keeping social distance, even when, ironically, crammed on to a tube train. We love our Englishman castles and try to avoid people whenever we can, even ones we know and see on the street / in shops. Obviously we're not total saddos and do go out shopping together, or pubs, cinema, etc.

But we're not continental folk. We don't search out people to share a chat and kisses on both cheeks. We don't have siesta time to spend hours in other people's company outside of work. This is not a slight on them, in fact it's a compliment to their excellent social skills. It just happens, the one thing we're inadvertantly good at is finally exactly what we need. Go hide in our rabbit holes.
 
Has anybody got any more information about some of the off-label usage of antivirals on Covid-19 patients?

Is there anything that has shown promise just yet?

I don't think Tamiflu did anything but there was a Japanese anti-viral that the Chinese said worked to some degree in a trail. They will be testing others that are being developed for Ebola and other viruses.
 
I don't think Tamiflu did anything but there was a Japanese anti-viral that the Chinese said worked to some degree in a trail. They will be testing others that are being developed for Ebola and other viruses.

At this stage, it has to be worth trying.
 
I don't know if it's true, but I read somewhere in this thread - that exposure to 'high viral load' can lead to worse outcomes; in other words, doctors and healthcare professionals are at extra risk because they're likely to be exposed to more of the disease in one go. Again, don't quote me on that. @Arruda ? Maybe can tell us if it's bullshit.

Another possibility is that healthcare professionals in Italy are getting sick with Covid-19 but not stopping to rest up, they're under tremendous stress and are continuing to work when sick. But that's only a guess.

I have read this is true but I don't have a good source. It also may be that medical professionals have a virtual 100% infection rate in some situations like in Italy, or inadequate PPE and/or they are very run down and exhausted making any illness worse.
 
To me, that’s the only thing that explains the death rate in Germany. They’re considering the death as from a pre-existing condition rather than from the virus that exacerbated it.

I think our gov was hiding numbers to avoid panic in our population and to protect the economy. These were my thoughts 2 weeks ago already.

When France had 80+ deaths, we were still at 0, even though we were slighty ahead in infections. At the minute our gov started to act with some measures such as closing schools etc., our death toll has started to roll. Basically to show the population how serious it is now.

And now many people over here still don't take it serious and are thinking our gov is just trying to control them by taking their freedom away. :lol:

Some tough times ahead of us...
 
I don't know if it's true, but I read somewhere in this thread - that exposure to 'high viral load' can lead to worse outcomes; in other words, doctors and healthcare professionals are at extra risk because they're likely to be exposed to more of the disease in one go. Again, don't quote me on that. @Arruda ? Maybe can tell us if it's bullshit.

Another possibility is that healthcare professionals in Italy are getting sick with Covid-19 but not stopping to rest up, they're under tremendous stress and are continuing to work when sick. But that's only a guess.
Either way it kind of blows apart the myth of its only old people that die.
Really shocking to hear 13 doctors have died, privately shed a tear there.
 
They tested 120 NBA players for coronavirus, all without any significant symptoms. 7 tested positive. I’ve been saying this, there must be millions of cases unaccounted for.

Actually it’s 10 already out of 135 I think.
Exactly. I've been mentioning this to friends for a week or two, people losing their mind over 2000 cases or so in the UK. I would imagine that number is closer to 100,000, it's just not causing them any problems. Re-iterates the need for social distancing and protecting those that are vulnerable.

Some people in here and others on Facebook who can't tear themselves away from their precious pint in the local should take heed. It's not all about you.
 
day 10 of isolation and I’m spiraling truth be told. Moved to this country ten months ago so don’t have a lot of close friends here, so already had a bit of loneliness kicking in.
I have ps4/Netflix/books/work from home. But I’m crumbling here. I won’t go out with friends and put others at risk - following the gov advice here, but I’m spiraling
 
I don't know if it's true, but I read somewhere in this thread - that exposure to 'high viral load' can lead to worse outcomes; in other words, doctors and healthcare professionals are at extra risk because they're likely to be exposed to more of the disease in one go. Again, don't quote me on that. @Arruda ? Maybe can tell us if it's bullshit.

Another possibility is that healthcare professionals in Italy are getting sick with Covid-19 but not stopping to rest up, they're under tremendous stress and are continuing to work when sick. But that's only a guess.
I think that viral load thing makes sense but haven't really looked into it. It's certainly a factor in other diseases.

I try not to look with too much detail into stories of doctors dying, it's a bit unnerving. I just try to learn how best to protect myself if (when, it seems) the time comes when my work will be needed. I'll also need to start looking more into the clinical aspects of it and learn all I can, and focus less on these social media and epidemiology, but these have been stress-relieving for me.
 
It's not 2). We are basically not testing at all.

Our 3 year old daughter with 39,3 fever and dry cough was not able to get tested - and we live in the middle of Cologne, one of the hardest hit cities in Germany.


I personally think our gov is hiding stuff.

Yeah that they were unprepared, despite warnings and that now not nearly enough tests and labarotory capacity are available to do tests.
And with that the german government is more or less the same than most western democratic governments.

But the government is a mirror of its own population and society. We all were unprepared and couldn't imagine something like that. If the government had done something like travel restrictions half of the population and businesses would have gone to court, to claim their right to do business in China and to do skiing in Italy and Austria.
That is one of the main reasons why I think many asian societies were better prepared. They remebered the fear they had of SARS and MERS. For us (including me) that was something that was happening at the other end of the world.
The governments (and us) should have known better, but we didn't.
Harsh as it sounds, every society gets the politicians it deserves.
 
I think our gov was hiding numbers to avoid panic in our population and to protect the economy. These were my thoughts 2 weeks ago already.
Not gonna lie - I think the US govt is doing something similar. They don’t know how big this is and are afraid of chaos if it gets out.
 
I'm quietly, very fecking quietly, optimistic we have a handle of things in Ireland.

550+ cases, shitloads of testing and still only 3 deaths. It will get worse but hopefully not Spain-esque.

I hope those cnuts who went to Cheltenham are made pariahs in their towns after all this.
 
There is some suspicion that there are 2 strains and one is more deadly than the other but that doesn't explain Germany's data. A combination of mass testing (even if they are now short of test kits), good medical facilities and a disciplined population (sorry for the stereotyping but perhaps correct to some degree) is probably the main answer. If the death rate is only 3 times higher than the flu this is good news but bad news in that it teams the spread in places where poorer data exists is huge.

This really is full of stereotypes. We have never been 'mass testing'. In fact Germany is much more reactive than proactive compared to other european countries.

And our population is anything but disciplined. Just yesterday - in Cologne a City where gatheringsare forbidden, the police had to call off a 600(!!!) people gathering at the Rhine.
 
I think that viral load thing makes sense but haven't really looked into it.

I try not to look with too much detail into stories of doctors dying, it's a bit unnerving. I just try to learn how best to protect myself if (when, it seems) the time comes when my work will be needed. I'll also need to start looking more into the clinical aspects of it and learn all I can, and focus less on these social media and epidemiology, but these have been stress-relieving for me.

Thanks, and good luck to you!

It's easy to obsess over statistics, I've been trying ot get away from screens and doomsday simulations since this all went off, but it's hard because I'm a geek for stats; I tend to use them to try and reassure myself, I'm 35 next month and physically somewhat fit - but of course, social media is ablaze with the stories of those 0.2 percenters - the youngsters with no medical conditions ending up intubated and/or dying.

As @Camy89 points out - this thing is probably much more widespread than we give it credit for. It wouldn't surprise me if the UK is actually nearing 100k-500k cases. Which in itself is reassuring, because it probably means the CFR is much lower than the official number as of now.
 
For better and for worse, I can't see Europe accepting this level of government oversight or that such oversight is even possible without an authoritarian state.
I don't know, during the blitz the UK had people walking through streets physically enforcing window blackouts. When it's a case of survival, we'll listen to any type of authority.
 
I don't think Tamiflu did anything but there was a Japanese anti-viral that the Chinese said worked to some degree in a trail. They will be testing others that are being developed for Ebola and other viruses.
I read somewhere that they've have been using them in combination. There's slight dubiety whether ritonavir/lopinavir (anti HIV medication) has a mortality benefit. Oseltamivir (tamiflu) I think has been used in conjunction with something else that may have helped also, unsure what it was and can't find any links, sorry. I would take what I've said with a significant pinch of salt until something crops up in a well-regarded journal.
 
This really is full of stereotypes. We have never been 'mass testing'. In fact Germany is much more reactive than proactive compared to other european countries.

And our population is anything but disciplined. Just yesterday - in Cologne a City where gatheringsare forbidden, the police had to call off a 600(!!!) people gathering at the Rhine.
To be honest in a city of more than 1 million, with half of the population at the moment having nothing to do and the first days of spring arriving 600 people at the Rhine are nothing.
Yeah they should know better and it is unacceptable. But people are people......
 
To be honest in a city of more than 1 million, with half of the population at the moment having nothing to do and the first days of spring arriving 600 people at the Rhine are nothing.
Yeah they should know better and it is unacceptable. But people are people......

Ain't no virus that would keep me from a nice glass of kölsch along the Rhine, either!
 


Also there's Remdesivir, supposedly having good success.

Interesting read about the azithromycin and hydroxychloroquine. I'm hesitant to get too excited at the moment. The sample size of COVID patients was 20 v 16 control (extremely small) and they'd already lost 6 of their hydroxychloroquine patients - 3 of them requiring ITU transfer and 1 dying.

P values are statistically significant however, but I'm not great with stats. I'm unsure how significant a P value of <0.05 is in a cohort of 20 people is?

Interesting to keep an eye on
 
It's worth noting just how many children will be born in December btw. We can name them the 'Covid Colony'.
 
It's worth noting just how many children will be born in December btw. We can name them the 'Covid Colony'.

All the kids missing out on half a year or more of schooling. They might be known as generation covid.
 
feck me. I have a cousin who has asthma. I have another cousin who has lung problems since he was 15 years old.

Hundreds of thousands (millions?) of people in U.K have Asthma... I think the role of Asthma in this (and the number of people who have it) has gone under the radar really.

This virus immediately targets the lungs.

Many PL footballers have Asthma!
 
This really is full of stereotypes. We have never been 'mass testing'. In fact Germany is much more reactive than proactive compared to other european countries.

And our population is anything but disciplined. Just yesterday - in Cologne a City where gatheringsare forbidden, the police had to call off a 600(!!!) people gathering at the Rhine.

Mass testing in comparison to many other countries where very few test kits are available. My son is in California and 5 people he knows were exposed to someone with Covid and then went back to Uni, felt unwell and they could only find 1 test kit (so they tested the most sick one) and that was in Santa Barbara where there were zero cases at the time.

And idiots are everywhere but I read a report that social distancing is working much better in Germany that many other places, not as well as Hong Kong but still better than most. You have closed lots of things including schools as well.
 
Hundreds of thousands (millions?) of people in U.K have Asthma... I think the role of Asthma in this (and the number of people who have it) has gone under the radar really.

This virus immediately targets the lungs.

Many PL footballers have Asthma!

That's true. Even the GOAT

paul-scholes-barcelona.jpg
 
day 10 of isolation and I’m spiraling truth be told. Moved to this country ten months ago so don’t have a lot of close friends here, so already had a bit of loneliness kicking in.
I have ps4/Netflix/books/work from home. But I’m crumbling here. I won’t go out with friends and put others at risk - following the gov advice here, but I’m spiraling
Are you quarantining due to precaution or have you had symptoms? Are there any local facebook support groups or anything like that?
 
I don't know, during the blitz the UK had people walking through streets physically enforcing window blackouts. When it's a case of survival, we'll listen to any type of authority.

There was a clear enemy during the blitz - the nazi's, where as covid 19 is a virus, peoples anger can't be directed at a invisible virus, the anger is most likely to be directed at the responds to it. It's also a virus that doesn't effect everyone in the same way, at it's worse(I think this is right) it could cause under a million deaths in Britain which would be huge but thats nothing compare to what would have happened if Nazi Germany invaded and took over Britain and Britain had a war time economy, people had jobs building war equipment or going off to fight an actual war, the longer this crisis goes on the worse off the economy is, there could mass levels of unemployment. We've also made massive gains since the 1940's both in individual rights and advices in tech.Plus there was a ton of awful shit during the blitz and the changes after the WW2 where pretty huge.

Now having said all of that, you could be easily right. If there is one country in Europe where people will accept such huge government over slight it would be Britain. Who's cultural authoritarian norms run quite deep but also I think this is only partly true for the older generations(Over 40's).
 
Without drastic measures, it is. Imperial College study forecasted the number of deaths to 90m if the virus is left alone.

The economy is going to be totally mauled.
Think the change in thread title was precisely because of posts like this.
 
Think the change in thread title was precisely because of posts like this.
I am hardly saying any bullshit. It is the most detailed study we have had so far, which forecasts 2.1m Americans dying if we only mitigate the problem, and 4m if we do nothing and leave it as the flu. Interpolate the numbers for the world, and you get what I am saying.

It also is conservative in many cases, using a significantly lower fatality rate than the one given from WHO. It is also precisely the study that the UK government is using to make their policy (thus while they gave up on herd immunity).

The silliness was more from 'this is just the flu' brigade who thankfully seem to have disappeared in the last week.
 
Without drastic measures, it is. Imperial College study forecasted the number of deaths to 90m if the virus is left alone.

The economy is going to be totally mauled.

I think they modeled that doing little (mild suppression measures) would result in 2.2 million deaths rising to nearly 4 million if we really did feck all (treat it like the flu). Some bloke then extrapolated this to the worlds population and came up with 90 million deaths. The maths is correct but it wasn't meant to be a prediction of what will happen, just of what could happen if we did nothing. And we are doing things. They also said with the correct measures the death toll could be reduced to thousands.

Still very fecking scary mind.
 
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