I know the plan one Health Trust in NI is putting into place to deal with what they're projecting to happen. Let's just say it's grim.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
Over what timescale?
Within a year.
Full study: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
Isn't this a really good thing?
Serious cases that end up in hospital are being tested, but if there's a substantial number of people who have got it/have it who simply have slipped under the radar (an absolute certainty in the UK at least) then does it not suggest that the virus is significantly less deadly than feared?
I said that left alone will reach those numbers. Yes, their numbers for UK and US very much matched, so you can extrapolate for the entire world (with some degree).
Obviously we are doing something, but it is still scary. For example, mitigation only reduced the number of deaths at a quarter (so 1m in US, 260k in UK), and suppression with then total removal of restriction was the same as doing nothing.
The current strategy most states are doing lowers it to a few thousands for US/UK (I think that is extremely optimistic as we see from Italy, so it is gonna be few tens of thousands), but that requires a lot of restrictions to stay in place until the vaccine comes.
Wasn't that also them just extrapolating the mortality rates to apply to the global population? Large portions of the world won't have access to anything like the resources and treatment available to the richest parts of the world.
Or am I missing something?
Wow
I read a summary of the Imperial report on Twitter. I recall there being 3 scenarios - doing nothing, mitigation, and outright surpression.
I'm not sure which category the United Kingdom comes under - (mitigation I guess?) - because we only have government advice and no complete ban on leaving the home. People are still going to bars/cafes/restaurants.
They were supposed to do mitigation (herd immunity) but when the study was completed the number of deaths was too high to accept it, so switched to suppression. Supression does not necessarily mean full lockdown.
Ahh, that makes more sense. Thanks.
90 million is extrapolating the very worst cases in the US to the rest of the world. That worst case won't happen because steps are already well above the level of treating it like the flu.
Still scary but it almost certainly won't be that bad - will almost certainly involve significant deaths of course.
I dunno, I’ve kept an eye on this thread and to be honest I think you’re taking too much in and unleashing it. Like I get it’s bad but anytime I see a comment that I think “steady on” it inevitably comes from you. I get you’re trying to be informative but I can’t imagine constantly looking up and reading statistics about how many dead people there is and there’s gonna be is healthy. I mean just today you’ve killed off football as an entire sport and then killed off 90 million people. Just chill....
Interesting.
A couple of things from my point of view:
1. They've stated R0 to be 2.4. It's not actually known what the COVID R0 number is and this can fall with measures that are put in place. It has been estimated it may be as low as 1.5, but it's obviously a fairly significant variable.
2. The numbers you've quoted correlate to doing nothing, as I've quoted above, the measures we've put in place now may have the biggest impact. I'm not refuting the fact that millions could die if we did nothing, but the fact is that we are doing something, therefore statements such as '2.2m could die' are unhelpful in the long run as it doesn't correlate with the current scenario.
Good thread from a Virologist about the future Covid vaccine
That is certainly a way of looking at it, yes. Which is why I've always taken the death rate with a pinch of salt. Personally, as a person who as asthma and often gets pretty wheezy with seasonal flu-like infections I'm a bit uneasy.
Have I had it and been ok? Maybe. Have I not had it? Maybe. I'll be on higher alert/vigilant until I get my vaccine. I just feel if I let my guard down it could get me in some bother. Statistics are on my side, however, being 30, but...you know...
They have denied that explicitly.
My sister works in a hospital near Cologne. So far they are coping well, they still have enough capacity to deal with the Corona patients.
Which country?
I mean... yeah. They’re not gonna say “ahhhh ya got me!” if somebody asks.
Pit stop.
Putting this here if anyone is nearly burnt out from this macabre thread. I sometimes just watch this for 10-15 minutes, cheers me right up, heading over Spain/northern Africa currently going into daylight.
Putting this here if anyone is nearly burnt out from this macabre thread. I sometimes just watch this for 10-15 minutes, cheers me right up, heading over Spain/northern Africa currently going into daylight.
The normal numbers show that we test a lot.
Germany tested 100,000 people last week, 35,000 the week before. They might not have tested everybody that wanted a test... and especially in the first weeks when test kits were more difficult to get.
Small kids with usual cold signs and normal fever for sure are not the first to get tested...
There is enough understandable reasons why we are not on Italy's ot Spain's track.
Yeah... but this is not China. There would be leaks and a huge public outrage. And, it would be difficult to orchestrate because it‘s not controlled by a central structure. Every county reports the numbers independently.
In the death cases that I know more of (regional newspapers) that was just not the case. And despite some users who like conspiracy theories that does just not match to the usual German overly correct prussian character.
In Germany the first cases from January were pretty well tracked. The second wave came with travellers, from skiing hotspots in Austria etc. Mainly with young people!
That was after the first 648 cases about ten days ago. If you take some days between discovery and death...
All of e.g. Bavarias 15 or 18 death cases were between 67 and 99.
I actually expect Germany to cope better with the virus then most of the other countries because of the organisation, social structure, discpline and health system.
And yes, there is always some people that do not catch the seriousness of the situation.
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In a lighter side, we should probably arrange more forum games on redcafe since there would be many people on lockdowns.
Wolves? Any other forum games that's interesting? Perhaps a gaming session?
Wolves? Any other forum games that's interesting? Perhaps a gaming session?
If anything, that chart indicates you test a lot more than Italy so your ratios should be more accurate.In the death cases that I know more of (regional newspapers) that was just not the case. And despite some users who like conspiracy theories that does just not match to the usual German overly correct prussian character.
In Germany the first cases from January were pretty well tracked. The second wave came with travellers, from skiing hotspots in Austria etc. Mainly with young people!
That was after the first 648 cases about ten days ago. If you take some days between discovery and death...
All of e.g. Bavarias 15 or 18 death cases were between 67 and 99.
I actually expect Germany to cope better with the virus then most of the other countries because of the organisation, social structure, discpline and health system.
And yes, there is always some people that do not catch the seriousness of the situation.
Have a similar issue here with people constantly lambasting the government for having almost the same number of cases as Argentina despite their population being 13 times ours. They overlook Argentina has 2 deaths already while we have none and our ICUs are empty.
Werewolf is far too apt. Villagers are blind as bats, have no clue what's going on and who is evil (infected) as they keep themselves hidden (asymptomatic).
Everyone banging on about collaborating and fighting for the greater good despite (again) not having the faintest idea how to go about it.
There's a chap running around with a limited stock of test kits trying to hit the jackpot with his one daily seer check.
Worst of all, most players end up dead.
So a covid themed game then?
hats off!
Trump pushes FDA limits in rush for coronavirus medicines
Link to story here.
I can't decide how I feel about this, apprehensive but excited.
An interesting primer, quite technical though:
Link to story here.
I can't decide how I feel about this, apprehensive but excited.
An interesting primer, quite technical though:
As a Singaporean, I would say the SARs experience was crucial. After SARs, the government developed a system called DORSCON and laid out plans and strategies to handle epidemics. That way, we don't need waste time on the drawing board whenever something happens. Government agencies also have drills every now ans then, that helped improve our readiness.
The government also set aside funds to build our infrastructure. By a great stroke of luck, a new center for communicable diseases that can house infected patients was just opened months before the outbreak, and immediately put to good use.
At the societal level, the memory of SARS is still fresh and everyone knows the seriousness of an outbreak.
It seems like you've just been told, to be honest.
Very stressful day at the house with the missus being a teacher.
She had a briefing from the head that all teachers are to use Microsoft Teams to run virtual classes (kids already abusing this, calling teachers 24/7), lesson work to be provided to all as they normally would be, just on an online format, plus a week of supervising those kids still going in. Her week just so happens to be the half term week so the immediate question is, does she get the week back in lieu?
Worst is that friends who teach at other schools have been given NO teaching commitments! Simply attendance at the school for 1 day each week!
A complete lack of national organisation on this. I’ve pushed her to go to the union rep today as it surely isn’t right that members of the same unions would have such vastly contrasting workload expectations from their schools.
She had a briefing from the head that all teachers are to use Microsoft Teams to run virtual classes (kids already abusing this, calling teachers 24/7), lesson work to be provided to all as they normally would be, just on an online format, plus a week of supervising those kids still going in. Her week just so happens to be the half term week so the immediate question is, does she get the week back in lieu?
Worst is that friends who teach at other schools have been given NO teaching commitments! Simply attendance at the school for 1 day each week!
A complete lack of national organisation on this. I’ve pushed her to go to the union rep today as it surely isn’t right that members of the same unions would have such vastly contrasting workload expectations from their schools.
In the death cases that I know more of (regional newspapers) that was just not the case. And despite some users who like conspiracy theories that does just not match to the usual German overly correct prussian character.
In Germany the first cases from January were pretty well tracked. The second wave came with travellers, from skiing hotspots in Austria etc. Mainly with young people!
That was after the first 648 cases about ten days ago. If you take some days between discovery and death...
All of e.g. Bavarias 15 or 18 death cases were between 67 and 99.
I actually expect Germany to cope better with the virus then most of the other countries because of the organisation, social structure, discpline and health system.
And yes, there is always some people that do not catch the seriousness of the situation.
How are so few old people catching it, young population or are they just staying at home?
I'm sorry. I've been calling friends and family and doing therapy by phone (not everyone has money to do this I know) and it's made me feel less alone, though hasn't helped with some other things (rage, anxiety). I don't know how it is with young people (first time I've ever not included myself in that, 33) but people my age and up were constantly on the phone until 10 years ago so are all used to hour long phone calls and they go by in a snap.
All of California is now in a Stay at Home state. 40m people. Hopefully they’ll stop people coming in from other states too to effectively slow down the virus transmission rates.
If it works to really reduce the case load then I’m all for it. Not sure how long , beyond say 14 days, it’ll last though.
If it works to really reduce the case load then I’m all for it. Not sure how long , beyond say 14 days, it’ll last though.
Got sent through videos yesterday of Army trucks coming through the port of Belfast, not sure of the significance of it yet but could this be start of lockdown and preparation for it. Government wont risk saying anything to start mass hysteria and further panic buying.
On the subject of kids working at home for school, not all of them have access to internet or a computer to be able to do the work on. How can they educate themselves when they dont have these things?
On the subject of kids working at home for school, not all of them have access to internet or a computer to be able to do the work on. How can they educate themselves when they dont have these things?
You mean it won't happen in the US? Large parts of the rest of the world won't be able to mitigate it.
When it comes to efficiency I raise my hats of to Singapore, the best in the world in terms of readiness.
But to be fair, it's easier to be efficient when you're rich and only have to deal with a city wide country with a 3 million inhabitants.
Your neighbour (my country) Indonesia can only cross their fingers and brace for impact.
How they eliminated the virus in Vò, Veneto, Italy, where the first Italian victim of COVID-19 died: https://www.theguardian.com/comment...ed-coronavirus-mass-testing-covid-19-italy-vo
Sounds like a solution for small isolated areas, but the logistics of this now look impossible.
Sounds like a solution for small isolated areas, but the logistics of this now look impossible.
On the Imperial College model, its worth noting that Bill Gates said the researchers he's working with think its flawed and too negative.