SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

This is going to be the biggest thread on the Caf isn’t it unfortunately :(
Nah. This'll fizzle out.

The Liverpool being denied a league title because of the plague thread? THAT will be the biggest one, that has significant longevity to it.
 
You are not following the same game plan. You are just repeating the same mistakes. Businesses where people gather socially should have been closed weeks ago. That would have saved lives that are about to be lost in the upcoming weeks. Not allowing fecking concert in Cardiff.
The Stereophonics gig was ridiculous, I agree. That shouldn't have been allowed to happen. The same goes for the St Paddy's Day Parade in Manchester.

I'm focusing more on the essential services that impact families, jobs, food supply and the economy. Those facilities need to be maintained in a state of normalcy for as long as possible, or else people are going to struggle even more than they're already likely to.
 
All the talk of military lockdown is misplaced I think.

We have just 135,000 police after tory cuts and at 95,000 active personnel, a smaller military than at any time since waterloo for the same reason.

Yes, they are armed, but there are two issues with that. First, asking your armed forces to fire on your own civilians is pretty much game over for a society. And if they ever did, it changes the rules forever. There are 65 million people, guns or not they are not winning that fight.

Johnson will, if he is sensible, avoid testing any of that at all costs.
I agree that using the military to police the population is an extreme measure, and that them firing on citizens would really put things on edge. But just remember that the military can still deploy domestically with limited weapons, they don't have to roll out like they would to go to war with Iran. When the National Guard first deployed to New Rochelle in New York state, they were unarmed and driving around in rented minivans. It can be used as additional "muscle" to be coordinated by the cops, and mainly aiming to keep things organized, and use non-lethal methods to stop and detain people if necessary.
 
You'll understand this better than me, but it looks like Italy has completed 165k tests. That's a hell of a lot, as far as I can tell (in global terms).

36k came out positive and 3k have sadly passed away.

What do you read into it?

http://www.salute.gov.it/imgs/C_17_pagineAree_5351_20_file.pdf
I’d be shocked if the Mezzogiorno doesn’t outbreak at some point. Sure, population density is a lot less, but a place like Matera in Basilicata draws a lot of tourism. Even 10% are testing positive from the few done.

Comparing the ratio between total cases and number of tests in Lombardy, Emilia-Romagna and Veneto is interesting. The Veneto looks more in control with a much bigger proportion of people testing negative, but Emilia-Romagna is only half the size of Lombardy but has done less testing proportionally and looks also in the deep shit. There‘s still so much room for the number to grow. Liguria too has a small population, but that one will rocket. That part of Italy from Turin to Milan to Genoa to all the towns across Emilia-Romagna and then Le Marche is so well connected, there was no stopping it.
 
This is going to be the biggest thread on the Caf isn’t it unfortunately :(

I have always been fascinated by world ending, or game changing events through history and in science. I became aware of this issue just after new year and started this thread when it struck me that this was potentially going to escalate out of control in a way predicted in the books I read on the subject and that almost all the boxes for a truly catastrophic event were in fact being ticked.

For all the platitudes being rolled out now there is still a potential chance this virus mutates quickly and becomes re-infectious and even more deadly. At that point this way of running the world is doomed.

I don't think that will be the outcome but frighteningly that chance is still in play.

I hope we catch a break and the thread sinks without a trace. My dad is in a nursing home 83 years old and very weak. It just closed for visitors due to a suspected Covid-19 case. My wife has health issues which put her on the vulnerable 12 week isolation ( which will extend to 6 or 12 months ).

:( Sorry.
 
All the talk of military lockdown is misplaced I think.

We have just 135,000 police after tory cuts and at 95,000 active personnel, a smaller military than at any time since waterloo for the same reason.

Yes, they are armed, but there are two issues with that. First, asking your armed forces to fire on your own civilians is pretty much game over for a society. And if they ever did, it changes the rules forever. There are 65 million people, guns or not they are not winning that fight.

Johnson will, if he is sensible, avoid testing any of that at all costs.
The man wasted millions ffs trying to build a flowery bridge
 
Got a call from Reed agency earlier asking if I was free to work for 6 weeks at the NHS in IT. Gonna take it, need the work and can try to help as much as I can. If there is any contractors in here struggling give Reed, Brook Street (they deal with NHS England) a call NHS is in need of staff at the moment.

I do wonder how NHS IT workers would work if the country goes in to lockdown? Do IT workers at the NHS count as critical/essential workers? .
 
All the talk of military lockdown is misplaced I think.

We have just 135,000 police after tory cuts and at 95,000 active personnel, a smaller military than at any time since waterloo for the same reason.

Yes, they are armed, but there are two issues with that. First, asking your armed forces to fire on your own civilians is pretty much game over for a society. And if they ever did, it changes the rules forever. There are 65 million people, guns or not they are not winning that fight.

Johnson will, if he is sensible, avoid testing any of that at all costs.

Are expecting all 65 million to fight back?
 
Yeah, this is why the media spin shitting on the government for not immeadiatly employing a ”suppression” strategy, as if it is the clear and obvious path out of here, is so misguided. The report is clear that their modelling suggests this whole situation is worse than we previously imagined and we would have to keep up these intense “suppression” measures until a vaccine is found, which could realistically be 18 months, maybe allowing a month of relaxed measures every so often.

At least Bill Gates thinks the assumptions in the Imperial modelling were a bit too harsh and the latest data from China could see a more optimistic revision. Will people shit on the government if strategy than changes again accordingly?

Jesus feck, some of you lot.
 
Got a call from Reed agency earlier asking if I was free to work for 6 weeks at the NHS in IT. Gonna take it, need the work and can try to help as much as I can. If there is any contractors in here struggling give Reed, Brook Street (they deal with NHS England) a call NHS is in need of staff at the moment.

I do wonder how NHS IT workers would work if the country goes in to lockdown? Do IT workers at the NHS count as critical/essential workers? .
Unless you are working on the hardware, you'll likely be homeworking mainly I would have thought.
 
So what do you think is happening with Wuhan's figures? Wuhan I believe still has a mortality rate of about 3% - and that's despite them expanding the definition of a 'case' about halfway through to anyone who shows the symptoms and not requiring a test (they had a crazy 20k jump one day). Did they just stop registering new cases after a while?

I mean, do you really think China had below 100k cases? With the way they reacted to this entire thing? Yeah, no.
Not to mention there are reports that really let's you question their infection numbers and their deathtoll (like crematoriums running 24/7).

I also doubt our German numbers. We sorta have a track record on fitting numbers to our narrative in the past years.
 
I mean, do you really think China had below 100k cases? With the way they reacted to this entire thing? Yeah, no.
Not to mention there are reports that really let's you question their infection numbers and their deathtoll (like crematoriums running 24/7).

I also doubt our German numbers. We sorta have a track record on fitting numbers to our narrative in the past years.

So what is it then? Do you think the mortality rate more or less than they're reporting?
 
While other countries are flying their citizens home for free.

This is extortion and the British embassy in Peru should hang their heads in shame for endorsing it.

That 1 way to London is 10 times the price as normal.

FB-IMG-1584574711819.jpg
 
So what is it then? Do you think the mortality rate more or less than they're reporting?
It could be that they have new cases but don't admit it. The philosophy of the Chinese government is to a large degree based on Chinese supremacy (and the supremacy of their system) so it is in their interest to show how efficient they are at dealing with the problem while the rest of the world crashes and burns. I am being cynical here, but for them controlling the information is as important as controlling the problem.

Additionally, there might have been more reported cases at the beginning, that might have not been accounted for.

Finally, Hubei was hit hard at the beginning. It alone has around double of the cases of Italy, while having a smaller population. Italy's system was overwhelmed and their medical system is better than China's. Not beyond all means that at the beginning they were not able to offer the necessary help to many people who needed it.
 
A growing concern around here is domestic violence. It's a plague in the best of times, but now, with everybody home and tensions high, some fear it will rise significantly.
 
So what is it then? Do you think the mortality rate more or less than they're reporting?

I wouldn't know. I am just saying that the numbers from China are most likely downplayed A LOT. Which was also reported by a few reputable sources (It's late, I can look them up again tomorrow - same reports about Iran by the way). I don't know if their mortality rate is higher or lower, just that their total numbers for infections and deaths are definitely lower. Just Thus my point is to not put too much emphasis on Chinas numbers and their mortality rate.


To give an example: https://nypost.com/2020/02/08/chinas-culture-of-lies-has-helped-spread-the-coronavirus/
"One crematorium manager told a Hong Kong reporter that, in normal times, his 24 ovens were lit five days a week for four hours at a time. Now, he said, they have so many corpses to deal with that all the ovens are going around the clock. This suggests the body count must be in the thousands."

https://www.cremationresource.org/cremation/how-is-a-body-cremated.html
"On an average, it takes about one to three hours to cremate a human body"


So let's go with 2 hours per corpse as a middle ground and assuming only one corpse at a time (which I'm pretty sure isn't happening and China is rather pushing in the next corpse before the previous one has been fully cremated as they don't have our safety and ethical standards, but let's just be decent about it). This means in this one of 14 mentioned crematoriums with 24 chambers that they will be able to cremate 24x12 (=288) bodies a day. The report was from ~6 weeks ago. So 24x12x7x6 = 12096 bodies.
Now in the report they say they normally only work 5 days a week at 4 hours. So it's 24x2x5x6 = 1440 bodies. Those are the normal amount of death bodies they have to dispose in this one single crematorium. Thus 12096-1440 = 10656 cases from Corona/Corona-related issues (such as not enough medical staff to care for other diseases due to the overload of the hospitals capacities). From one single out of 14 mentioned crematoriums.

What's Chinas official current deathtoll? 3237! See here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Yeah, not buying it. Not even close. Don't need to be a conspiracy theorist to know something's fishy.
 
This crisis really highlights the importance of having an emergency fund. It also highlights the terrible inequality that has resulted in many people not being in a position to save and being forced to living paycheck to paycheck. If anything good can come out of this, maybe we will move a step closer to trialling UBI on a larger scale and also establishing a realistic living wage.

I also hope it will instill a greater awareness in general about the importance of having money saved up for an emergency. Unfortunately, there are a significant portion out there living paycheck to paycheck who could have cut back on expenses a bit and saved for a rainy day. I Iearned from my uni days how reckless some people can be with there money. My heart goes out to all those anxious and struggling financially right now. I hope the government can provide enough support.
 


What the feck? Why would you even publicly announce something like that. Philly about to initiate a Purge scenario :wenger:
 
A growing concern around here is domestic violence. It's a plague in the best of times, but now, with everybody home and tensions high, some fear it will rise significantly.

No doubt it will. Men who often drink till late at bars and taverns are now without their mates, with no footie, drinking at home. It's gonna be hell for some women out there.
 
Didn't really think that through, what I meant was better than Southern Europe and certainly no worse off than the rest despite whatever differences in approach.

We're actually replicating Italys numbers, we're pretty much exactly where they were in terms of death escalation. The only difference is that Italy were the unfortunate European country to get hit badly first. Spain seem to be the worst hit though, their deaths are going up alarmingly fast.
UK Dates​
Total Deaths​
Italy Dates​
Total Deaths​
March 8th​
3​
Feb 23rd​
3​
March 9th​
5​
Feb 24th​
7​
March 10th​
6​
Feb 25th​
11​
March 11th​
8​
Feb 26th​
12​
March 12th​
10​
Feb 27th​
17​
March 13th​
11​
Feb 28th​
21​
March 14th​
21​
Feb 29th​
29​
March 15th​
35​
March 1st​
41​
March 16th​
55​
March 2nd​
52​
March 17th​
71​
March 3rd​
79​
March 18th​
104​
March 4th​
107​
 
San Francisco is ahead of the curve and showing you the outcome (its called Prop 47, right?):


I can tell you the same instructions have been given to police officers in towns all over. I was very worried about the civil disobedience it would lead to when I first heard about it from some departments around me. Not sure why those feck tards in Philly thought it was a good idea to put it into writing and having it come out but whatever - would have only been a matter of time for it to become known anyway. Clearly it's already having the effect I feared. Shits gonna be happening all across the country.

People gonna be buying even more guns than they already were because of all this. Fecked up stuff really.
 
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This is terrifying for a variety of reasons. As an American, the federal government has done jack shit to push domestic producers to make more ventilators. Despite have 162,000 of them, the size of the country alone means that there will not be enough ventilators where they're needed on top of the number of cases we're likely to see overwhelming the entire system.

Another reason is the UK apparently only has 5,000 ventilators. Germany has 25,000. Boris Johnson and Dominic Cummings' strategy is going to get thousands of people killed. The US response has been a delayed clusterfeck, but the British government seems to be trying to do a worse job.
 


What the feck? Why would you even publicly announce something like that. Philly about to initiate a Purge scenario :wenger:


Ditto for Australia, put it out there that road side breath testing isn't going to happen..... Do the pissheads really need to know that kind of information?
 


This is terrifying for a variety of reasons. As an American, the federal government has done jack shit to push domestic producers to make more ventilators. Despite have 162,000 of them, the size of the country alone means that there will not be enough ventilators where they're needed on top of the number of cases we're likely to see overwhelming the entire system.

Another reason is the UK apparently only has 5,000 ventilators. Germany has 25,000. Boris Johnson and Dominic Cummings' strategy is going to get thousands of people killed. The US response has been a delayed clusterfeck, but the British government seems to be trying to do a worse job.


They finally did something, invoking Defense Production Act: https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/18/politics/trump-defense-production-act-coronavirus/index.html

I heard production of medical masks and other supplies mentioned. Hope it expands to ventilators, as well. Retooling takes some time so moving quickly is very important.
 
They finally did something, invoking Defense Production Act: https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/18/politics/trump-defense-production-act-coronavirus/index.html

I heard production of medical masks and other supplies mentioned. Hope it expands to ventilators, as well. Retooling takes some time so moving quickly is very important.

Yeah, but they're not going to use it. Trump said during the announcement and tweeted out after he just did it "in case" he needed to use it in the future. He's not doing anything not to force production of ventilators or face masks. He's going to wait again (like they did with the tests) and the supplies/equipment won't be ready.

The President stressed later Wednesday that he would only use the powers granted under the Defense Production Act "in a worst case scenario."

"I only signed the Defense Production Act to combat the Chinese Virus should we need to invoke it in a worst case scenario in the future," Trump tweeted. "Hopefully there will be no need, but we are all in this TOGETHER!"
 
L
Yeah, but they're not going to use it. Trump said during the announcement and tweeted out after he just did it "in case" he needed to use it in the future. He's not doing anything not to force production of ventilators or face masks. He's going to wait again (like they did with the tests) and the supplies/equipment won't be ready.
Love how he keeps talking about himself again too. Calling himself a wartime president as if all of this is some kind of notch on his belt.
 
San Francisco is ahead of the curve and showing you the outcome (its called Prop 47, right?):



That's insane, but it's SF and that should be expected from a city ruined by democratic legislations.

Can't see that happening in gun friendly states where store owners stashing a shotgun behind the register.
 
Yeah, but they're not going to use it. Trump said during the announcement and tweeted out after he just did it "in case" he needed to use it in the future. He's not doing anything not to force production of ventilators or face masks. He's going to wait again (like they did with the tests) and the supplies/equipment won't be ready.

Oh God! What a clusterfeck.
 
That's insane, but it's SF and that should be expected from a city ruined by democratic legislations.

Can't see that happening in gun friendly states where store owners stashing a shotgun behind the register.

That is not a very accurate description of the reality.

It's completely legal to own a gun in San Francisco. You need a handgun safety certificate, background check, 10 day waiting period, and then make the transfer via a FFL. Just because they don't sell guns on every street corner, doesn't mean you cannot own a gun in SF. If store owners know how to use guns and are interested to get in a shoot-out, they had a way and a reason to get a gun even before. But that wild-wild west shit is not for everybody.

In "gun-friendly" states, on the other hand - if shit gets very bad, you will have all kinds of people without any background checks, carrying around guns and potentially causing enough trouble to incite riots or worse. If shit gets bad, in "gun-friendly" states, they may have to bring out national guard and start patrolling streets.