SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
3rd person died in Ireland.
Reading through her daughter's twitter feed, she says her mother (who was 88 with loads of underlying conditions) hadn't been outside the door since February as she was immobile. Only six people in contact with her since, none of whom showed any symptoms. Scary stuff.
Reading through her daughter's twitter feed, she says her mother (who was 88 with loads of underlying conditions) hadn't been outside the door since February as she was immobile. Only six people in contact with her since, none of whom showed any symptoms. Scary stuff.
To be fair some people don’t realise they have it, so it’s possible one of the six people had it.
Nearly every new page you state an opinion you have like it's a fact, then as soon as anyone disproves or calls you out on something, it's just pivot to the next thing. You should have gone into politics.
Oh yeah, I'm sure one of them did. I more meant it's scary that you could be feeling absolutely fine but still end up fatally infecting someone. Underlines the importance of keeping distance from the vulnerable but in this case someone had to be in contact with her as she needed care. What can you do but hope you don't have it?
Only 3 deaths from 366 cases is still pretty good though. Less than 1% mortality rate in Ireland, so far.
That reply. Gold.
Lots of chatter on Tinternet and Watsapp that full military lockdown Friday onwards. General public to be told Thursday night to avoid panic and panic buying.
Might be just rumors though.
Might be just rumors though.
8k cases already in US 
What is the expected real case multiplier ? 10?
What is the expected real case multiplier ? 10?Germany has 0.23% fatality rate, by far the lowest from all countries with over 1000 infections. I am saying this every day, but this is extremely weird and I am surprised why no one (researchers, media) are not talking about this. They either don't know to count, or there is something more going on. Which as of now, I see four possibilities (in decreasing order of likelihood):
1) They are counting deaths differently. In Italy, if you are 100 years old and have all three of cancer, AIDS and diabates, and then get covid19 and die, you still count a death from covid19. Is this true for Germany or not?
2) They are doing more testings than other countries (apparently), so maybe their number is correct, while the number of other countries is wrong. So if Germany has same cases as Spain, but 20-30 times less deaths, then the real number of infected people in Spain is 20-30 times higher. This is very good news for the world, it means that the virus is much less lethal than we thought.
3) The virus there has mutated to something less lethal. Why only there?
4) Beer is superior to wine. Germans drink beer, Italians, Spanish and French drink wine.
1) They are counting deaths differently. In Italy, if you are 100 years old and have all three of cancer, AIDS and diabates, and then get covid19 and die, you still count a death from covid19. Is this true for Germany or not?
2) They are doing more testings than other countries (apparently), so maybe their number is correct, while the number of other countries is wrong. So if Germany has same cases as Spain, but 20-30 times less deaths, then the real number of infected people in Spain is 20-30 times higher. This is very good news for the world, it means that the virus is much less lethal than we thought.
3) The virus there has mutated to something less lethal. Why only there?
4) Beer is superior to wine. Germans drink beer, Italians, Spanish and French drink wine.
Its 1)
Interesting.
Sorry for all the questions.. but:
How would they know you aren't just saying your going for groceries or generally lying about what you're doing though? Also, have they specified what physical activities are allowed? Golf can be quite isolating...
They dont. I'm in Italy and we have the same system, but we have been in it for nearly 2 weeks now. Its partly based on trust.
You can go for a run or to walk the dog but that's about it. Cycling is discouraged because if you have an accident they may not be able to help you.
edit: here is the government webpage advising what you can and cannot do (Google translate works well if you have it installed in your browser): http://www.governo.it/it/faq-iorestoacasa / https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=http://www.governo.it/it/faq-iorestoacasa
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The mean age of the infected and preexisting conditions might be lower than Italy.
There was also a report that Germany has more ventilators and medical support than other countries for some reason and they are capable of donating some and still be self sufficient.
The fact that the Czech Republic, which has the highest beer consumption in the world, has no deaths yet would support that theory.
some other possible factors;
the general health of the population
age demographics
healthcare facilities
Italy getting caught on the hop / Germany having more time to prepare
variance (just bad/good luck on which demographics it spread to first)
I'd say 2 is the biggest factor though, which would reassuringly mean Germany is closest to the true figure (whilst they may both be outliers)
1 will probably play a part but 2 is definitely true as well. In Poland we have 5 deaths from 250 cases but it seems that a lot more people are infected. I posted the story about infant falling out the window yesterday and entire family testing positive afterwards - that was a random accident, they’d not have been tested otherwise. Last night a doctor committed suicide, they tested him and showed positive as well. Plenty of random people testing positive.
US have 9k cases and 7 of them are NBA players. 7 in a random population of 450 players tested positive, that’s 1.6% of the league yet 0.003% of entire population. I know it’s a small sample and all but I honestly expect the real number of cases to be much higher.
Is this lock down actually happening.
I've heard nothing else all night and to be honest I'm fed up with my boss moaning he doesn't want people to work from home because of lack of productive work!!!!
The point is it's protecting people, if he doesn't trust us (proven by this situation) then long lerm I'm gone once it picks up again.
I've grown to hate people I work for through this drama.
I've heard nothing else all night and to be honest I'm fed up with my boss moaning he doesn't want people to work from home because of lack of productive work!!!!
The point is it's protecting people, if he doesn't trust us (proven by this situation) then long lerm I'm gone once it picks up again.
I've grown to hate people I work for through this drama.
Yeah, this is why the media spin shitting on the government for not immeadiatly employing a ”suppression” strategy, as if it is the clear and obvious path out of here, is so misguided. The report is clear that their modelling suggests this whole situation is worse than we previously imagined and we would have to keep up these intense “suppression” measures until a vaccine is found, which could realistically be 18 months, maybe allowing a month of relaxed measures every so often.
At least Bill Gates thinks the assumptions in the Imperial modelling were a bit too harsh and the latest data from China could see a more optimistic revision. Will people shit on the government if strategy than changes again accordingly?
Don't South Korea also have a death rate in the same ball park?
The most striking thing about the German stats is how few people are critical. They might have loads of ventilators but they’re not using them. Yet.
To me the biggest unknown variable is time. How long the virus has been endemic in a country. It seems to take several weeks before the really sick get really sick. So in the first few weeks after the virus reaches a country the mortality rate will be very low. I suspect it’s been endemic in Italy much longer than in any other European country (via their links to Chinese factories)
This seems to be a common theme at the moment. Bosses showing their true colours.
If they can't trust people to work from home then their business won't last very long in this new world.
If I worked in an office and the boss told me to come in even though I could work from home I'd tell him where to go
Where can I find the stats for critical cases within Germany?
Thanks in advance for sharing.
Not home, presumably.
0.23% is actually still pretty high isn’t it?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
Only 2 serious/critical cases at the moment, apparently.
They are around 0.7-0.8. They are also doing a lot of testing (even more than Germany). It could be that countries with more testings are having lower mortality rate, simply because they count more people as infected (by testing them in the first place), while those that do not do many testing, have a higher mortality rate (cause they detect only people who are sick).
If so, that is very good news. If the virus is 3-4 times less lethal than we think it is, then that is great.
Yes very high. And the number of people who need care/ICUs is still way beyond capacity.
Flu is 0.1%, so twice as lethal as flu. Pretty bad, especially with it being more contagious than the flu (and no vaccine for covid), but not as bad as we currently think it is (20-30 times deadlier than the flu).
Not in Germany.
The 0.23% figure is mortality in Germany, right? And it is low. The lowest I’ve seen in any country with a decent number of cases. High compared to flu but extremely low for COVID-19. The mortality rate in Italy is closing in on 10%!
Stories like this need to be vetted and then shared by leaders during their press conferences. They hit home more than stats ever will.
Good point. Which means that the virus has been here longer than December.
If it has been endemic longer, than it only means that the number of infected is much larger. Eventually, Germany is gonna have more deaths, but all the countries are further up in the curve than we thought they are (which again, is quite good). If this is the case (and totally speculating here), then the peak is quite near, and in the end, the virus is not gonna kill as much as we think it will.
So what do you think is happening with Wuhan's figures? Wuhan I believe still has a mortality rate of about 3% - and that's despite them expanding the definition of a 'case' about halfway through to anyone who shows the symptoms and not requiring a test (they had a crazy 20k jump one day). Did they just stop registering new cases after a while?
Well, I kind of think the site is just not being fed with info from German sources.
Within the last 2 days, thereve been 4 deaths in my city alone. Everyone above the age of 80, 3/4 with preexisting conditions. But I think they might just not be giving out that much live info about critical cases? I’m just guessing though.
Speaking of which, the global death rate for “closed cases” (i.e. when they have either recovered or died, ignoring people still unwell) has been increasing over the last week and just hit 10%.
They publish daily in English and German: https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/Gesamt.html
As I said the other day, they aren’t publishing testing data, other than positive tests, and most of their positives are middle aged as opposed to elderly. Not sure if that says more about their testing protocols or something else.
On the 10 o clock news on BBC, they said Italy is probably understating Covid 19 deaths in the elderly as if they die, they're not being tested so NOT being classed as a Covid 19 death?
Are there any Italians on here? I'm fascinated as to why they DON'T panic buy stuff. I get common sense says take what you really need and everyone should be ok so why are people in the UK panicking?
Mentality?
IMO the mortality rate in Wuhan never hit Italian rates because they were able to massively ramp up their ability to treat very sick patients very quickly. Mind-blowing stuff like building huge new hospitals overnight. The scary death rates seem to be driven by overwhelmed healthcare systems.
From my experience most European countries don't have many of these big superstores for bulk buying - so I guess it's not really a part of their culture? Most markets are closer to your tesco express where you go and pick up what you need often in a basket I guess.