SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Don’t get me wrong I know people need to leave the house but that’s quite a consideration amount of reasons to leave the house. It’s basically what’s happened in the UK but instead of calling it lockdown it’s called essential travel.
It actually is quite restrictive, because it makes you a bit anxious about being stopped and then finding your reason for travel isn't accepted. You double-think everything.
 
104 have now died in UK

Yeah, it's going to get very bad, very quickly.

As a manager of a small team of 6 I'm facing some new challenges. The rest of my company can work from home but my team are the 'hands on' guys / girls that do the 'output'. We can't properly work from home and we've been quarantined for over a week now. I am seeing some early signs of anxiety and stress amongst them. This situation has so many factors to it and it is evolving every day.

I genuinely don't envy any head of state right now. Every leader is surely facing some very difficult decisions almost hourly.
 
https://www.geekwire.com/2020/scientists-find-86-percent-coronavirus-infections-go-unreported/

It'd be interesting to know when the Vo data were collected and whether the two converge.

Note: Again, the figure in the article isn't a set-in-stone number. And it does not mean 86% of people are going to get it. It's similar in principle to the study where the Italians tested Vo and found 'between 50 and 75%, are completely asymptomatic but a formidable source of contagion.' It's also somewhat an illustration of how the 'lack of testing' led to the surprise jump start the virus got.
 
Trump is now disagreeing with what his Treasury Secretary said on Capitol Hill today about the level of unemployment we could see as a result of this.
 
I thought it was about 15,000. If you read down through the article, Varadkar says 15,000 per week which seems much more realistic - but the guy in UCD seems to think 15,000 per day will be possible.

Either way, I’m happy we’re aspiring to test as many as possible. The more people know they have it, the more we can keep them away from others and trace who they’ve been in contact with, so we can then test them. Hopefully this will help reduce asymptomatic spreaders. We’ve a manageable enough population that it should help.

If we get anywhere near 15k a day it will be insanely impressive. For context, the UK today said they were looking to ramp up to 25k per day. Per capita that'd be quite a gap.
 
People using this to bash Boris and his cabinet or whatever it's called... Just feck off, half you can't decide which shampoo to buy, let alone make serious decisions. It's not the time to play "political smartarses".

Right so a guy really fecking up a job where he's responsible for millions of lives isn't worthy of discussion? I tell you what, without that discussion and all the subsequent U-turns we'd be in a real mess right now.

Robust debate over the best strategy is the only thing that will expose what that strategy should be unless you're willing to leave it to 400 corrupt ivory tower feckwits who all studied classics at Oxford and are therefore clearly thoroughly equipped to judge the best course of action in a pandemic?
 
The people complaining about being locked away are too long sighted as understandable as it is, we need a chance to fight back and we need to push this back to give us breathing room.
People are anxious because they know whats coming but havent registered it yet. When hospitals are overflowing and social media really brings it home we will see a lot more understanding of the shitshow we are in and little complaints about being stuck in the house for a week or two can fade into the background.
Hopefully reinfection is low and we can ease back into society with understanding about hygeine and social distancing. Thats what we have to aim for.
The economy will tank anyway, if you let it run ranpant then you become lepers to the world until you get it undet control. It doesnt really matter how many people say feck it and lets get back to work, youll be cut off to the world
 
The people complaining about being locked away are too long sighted as understandable as it is, we need a chance to fight back and we need to push this back to give us breathing room.
People are anxious because they know whats coming but havent registered it yet. When hospitals are overflowing and social media really brings it home we will see a lot more understanding of the shitshow we are in and little complaints about being stuck in the house for a week or two can fade into the background.
Hopefully reinfection is low and we can ease back into society with understanding about hygeine and social distancing. Thats what we have to aim for.
The economy will tank anyway, if you let it run ranpant then you become lepers to the world until you get it undet control. It doesnt really matter how many people say feck it and lets get back to work, youll be cut off to the world

Our behaviour is similar to that of the Italians. Look at them now.
 
The people complaining about being locked away are too long sighted as understandable as it is, we need a chance to fight back and we need to push this back to give us breathing room.
People are anxious because they know whats coming but havent registered it yet. When hospitals are overflowing and social media really brings it home we will see a lot more understanding of the shitshow we are in and little complaints about being stuck in the house for a week or two can fade into the background.
Hopefully reinfection is low and we can ease back into society with understanding about hygeine and social distancing. Thats what we have to aim for.
The economy will tank anyway, if you let it run ranpant then you become lepers to the world until you get it undet control. It doesnt really matter how many people say feck it and lets get back to work, youll be cut off to the world

I must admit though, I've noticed I've been hearing 'it's just flu' a lot less from some people crowing that phrase on loop until only last week!
 
I hope so. We have a similar population to Singapore spread out over a much greater landmass. Weather aside, we should be able to cope in a similar way.

Last night my mother and sister both started showing symptoms, they’re now both booked in for tests at Croker tomorrow after talking to their GP today. They both got called within 30 minutes.

Ireland is still a very humid country which could help.

The yearly average relative humidity in Singapore is 84%, in Manchester its 85% and Dublin 79%. I think people just don't realise because it doesn't get that warm all that often. The temperature will probably impact but the climate in the UK and Ireland may prove to be favourable come spring/summer.
 
Probably a bit but not too much. You need to be totally sure that the vaccine is safe, it does not make things worse, and it actually works. Imagine vaccinating the population and ending the suppression stage, to only find out that the vaccine does not work.

Apparently, the only way to know this for sure is testing, testing, and testing. Start with a few people (while animal testing is going in parallel *), then do a few dozens of people, then do for thousands of people (while vaccinating as many people with placebo vaccines to see the difference). Then wait. And then wait more. And then start mass-producing it, giving it first to people who are in high-risk categories (or in case of US, those that have top insurances).

All the researchers are saying that 12-18 months is actually a miracle. It typically takes 10-20 years.

* First time ever for this to happen. Typically, it is done in animals for a few years before starting with humans. Anyway, the vaccines are already developed by different companies. Now it is important to see if they really work. The first one developed is from a company that has never made a licensed vaccine and who is using a novel technology (it does not use the virus at all). While the vaccine won't be able to do infections on its own (so it won't kill us), who knows what can be the side effects (remove for good the immunity against that - or similar - viruses, weaken the immunity system, who knows. Unlikely but we are in uncharted territory and we cannot feck this up).

18 months is nothing in terms of testing and getting a vaccine approved, manufactured and distributed. No matter how much money you throw at it you can't shorten testing indefinitely. And that assumes the vaccine works and doesn't have side effects. And that we can even develop a working one. Like we didn't/couldn't for SARS and MERS - the other nasty recent corona-viruses (or the corona-viruses that constitute 1/3 of colds - that we also haven't been able to make a vaccine for).

Then there is the fast mutations that vaccines create when used on viruses.

It could all go to plan and work well but nothing in this pan is certain and drug trials usually take longer than planned.

We need to act as if this isn't going to happen and be pleasantly surprised if it does.

Great and informative posts. Cheers.
 
Right so a guy really fecking up a job where he's responsible for millions of lives isn't worthy of discussion? I tell you what, without that discussion and all the subsequent U-turns we'd be in a real mess right now.

Robust debate over the best strategy is the only thing that will expose what that strategy should be unless you're willing to leave it to 400 corrupt ivory tower feckwits who all studied classics at Oxford and are therefore clearly thoroughly equipped to judge the best course of action in a pandemic?

Debate over the strategy yeah, but it's feckwits saying "Boris is shit" "haha Boris is clueless" as if he hasn't got loads of advisors around him and medical professionals, not a bunch of people behind a computer screen eating wotsits in their underpants.
 
Schools closing in Wales and Scotland but not England. I mean what is wrong with parliament just make the decision universal. The dithering they have done since the weekend has allowed this virus to spread ten fold. Absolute morons.
 
Schools closing in Wales and Scotland but not England. I mean what is wrong with parliament just make the decision universal. The dithering they have done since the weekend has allowed this virus to spread ten fold. Absolute morons.

The education secretary is making a statement at 5pm so this may be about to change. My nephew and niece's school has just announced they have had to close due to staff having to self-isolate so I'd imagine they will be closed sooner rather than later.
 
The education secretary is making a statement at 5pm so this may be about to change. My nephew and niece's school has just announced they have had to close due to staff having to self-isolate so I'd imagine they will be closed sooner rather than later.
My kids school has just started sending me learn at home tools so I suspect the are expecting this announcement.
 
Not reading all that but "it will" or it could? Or worst case scenario?
From the PDF...

Assumptions
In the absence of facts, planning assumptions represent information deemed true. They are
necessary to facilitate planning development efforts. Assumptions set a baseline for planning
purposes and do not take the place of specific activities or decision points that will occur during
a COVID- 19 outbreak. The following planning assumptions assisted in the development of an
operational environment for this plan.
1. Universal susceptibility and exposure will significantly degrade the timelines and
efficiency of response efforts.
2 . A pandemic will last 18 months or longer and could include multiple waves of illness.
3. The spread and severity of COVID -19 will be difficult to forecast and characterize.
4 . Increasing COVID -19 suspected or confirmed cases in the U .S. will result in increased
hospitalizations among at-risk individuals, straining the healthcare system .
5 . States will request federal assistance when requirements exceed state , local, tribal, and
territorial (SLTT) capabilities to respond to COVID - 19. This may include requests for
assistance of HHS through the HHS Region based on the scope of assistance available
through an emergency supplemental appropriation and may include additional assistance
under the Stafford Act.
6 . Supply chain and transportation impacts due to ongoing COVID - 19 outbreak will likely
result in significant shortages for government , private sector, and individual U . S .
consumers .
As the federal response to COVID - 19 evolves beyond a public health and medical
response , additional federal departments and agencies will be required to respond to the
outbreak and secondary impacts , thereby increasing the need for coordination to ensure a
unified, complete , and synchronized federal response.
 
Schools closing in Wales and Scotland but not England. I mean what is wrong with parliament just make the decision universal. The dithering they have done since the weekend has allowed this virus to spread ten fold. Absolute morons.
NI schools taking it into their own hands as well. Arlene needs to stop looking at London first to make political points
 
How do you know you can go back to work if you are not tested?

Say you have a cough, you isolate, think you've had it then go back to work.

Next thing you know, you actually have it, because last time was the flu, and you just infected your nan.

Besides, we are not, currently, even testing the doctors and nurses treating patients with this disease.

Just had something similar at my university. A guy came in on Monday who was in our lab for around 3 hours, and who I spent an hour talking to. I later found out his housemate has been very ill with Covid like symptoms. Then yesterday he himself went into self isolation due to coming down with the same symptoms. I found this out today and went to the University health and safety manager and told her this. Her reply “if he hasn’t got a positive diagnosis then no measures will be taken and no one recommended to self isolate”. How can he get a positive diagnosis when they’re not testing people without severe disease aka 80-90% of infected people? The reason for testing is to prevent further spread. Ridiculous, country is going to be decimated in a very short time with attitudes like this. Stark contrast to the response shown by China and the surrounding countries.
 
Jesus... 319 deaths in Lombardy alone today. Number of new cases is down though.


Government is looking into the use of veterinary ventilators for human use.
 
What do we think happens with Brexit due to this? May have missed it but are the government still working to the 31 Dec deadline? Surely that will have to be extended?
 
Right so a guy really fecking up a job where he's responsible for millions of lives isn't worthy of discussion? I tell you what, without that discussion and all the subsequent U-turns we'd be in a real mess right now.

Robust debate over the best strategy is the only thing that will expose what that strategy should be unless you're willing to leave it to 400 corrupt ivory tower feckwits who all studied classics at Oxford and are therefore clearly thoroughly equipped to judge the best course of action in a pandemic?
Get this man another shed!
 
What do we think happens with Brexit due to this? May have missed it but are the government still working to the 31 Dec deadline? Surely that will have to be extended?

It will almost certainly be extended, probably by a year. It is in the interests of both the UK and EU to do that.
 
Hearing from a few mates that police have been briefed that UK will be in lockdown at the start of next week.
 
What do we think happens with Brexit due to this? May have missed it but are the government still working to the 31 Dec deadline? Surely that will have to be extended?

If the Brexiteers are still screaming for a no deal while this is going on and we can't actually work towards a deal they can all feck off {you know exactly what I originally had typed here}.
 
I am presuming this is fake?:

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