SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Dante said:
A worldwide, prison-like lockdown for 4 weeks is by far the best way of tackling this outbreak.

Unfortunately, that's not possible in any sort of practical way. Going to prison is considered a punishment which is why everyone tries to avoid it.

Yes, the scenario you posted is possible (though unlikely, so please don't get too paranoid). It's why we all catch colds and flus every year. But even a lockdown will require people being allowed to leave their homes to go food shopping .

All we can do is try to come up with solutions that practise the art of the possible, whilst also trying to mitigate the inevitable economic collapse (eg. people losing jobs, homes and having no money) and the subsequent social pushback.

We also have to factor in that even if eradicate C19 in our small corner of the world, it could continue to exist in Asia, Africa or America and boomerang back after we try to lift the lockdown.

Basically, the virus is going to eventually defeat all our best efforts and infect 70-80% of the world. We just have to try and slow it down at tactical times (informed by behavioural science and economics) so the NHS doesn't breakdown.
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4 weeks would do nothing. Outbreak came from one person in China. After 4 months we are at 200,000 infected worldwide. You keep people locked for 4 weeks, chances are there will still be families where after those 4 weeks there's someone infected left, and we are back to square one. That's unless you lock everyone down individually, without any contact with anybody... then 4 weeks would be fine, provided you don't allow anyone to even go to hospital meaning everyone who is in bad condition dies. Any anyone who has any other condition in the meantime is dead as well.

There's no way out of this that doesn't involve millions dying.
 
Sarni said:
4 weeks would do nothing. Outbreak came from one person in China. After 4 months we are at 200,000 infected worldwide. You keep people locked for 4 weeks, chances are there will still be families where after those 4 weeks there's someone infected left, and we are back to square one. That's unless you lock everyone down individually, without any contact with anybody... then 4 weeks would be fine, provided you don't allow anyone to even go to hospital meaning everyone who is in bad condition dies. Any anyone who has any other condition in the meantime is dead as well.
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That's what I said in my second sentence.
 
We are having less than 50 cases per day and our health system is already struggling. At 100 it will be close to collapse.
 
2cents said:
Glad to see we’re trying to emulate South Korea:

Coronavirus Ireland: Varadkar told that 15,000 tests a day can be carried out

TAOISEACH Leo Varadkar has been told that Irish health authorities should be able to carry out some 15,000 Coronavirus tests per day as efforts to battle the pandemic intensify.

On a visit to the National Virus Reference Laboratory (NVRL) in UCD on Wednesday, Mr Varadkar said that testing combined with social isolation were essential to combating the spread of the virus as had been shown in South Korea...

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/amp.ind...-tests-a-day-can-be-carried-out-39055060.html
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I've been really impressed with our response so far. I know that frontline physicians are also full of praise for the HSE. Brand new CT scanners ordered and paid for within 24 hours of the request (which would usually take years to sort out) I didn't think we had it in us but it really does look as though we'll be one of the countries following best possible practice in trying to delay the spread of this fecking thing as much as possible.
 
horsechoker said:
They can still provide work to the students or even do some online lessons but I know the latter is harder to implement. Obviously they need something to live on even though there are many who won't get anything (but they should)
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Yeah i'm saying they should still get paid but should have to do something to earn it. No chance should they be getting one big holiday from this. They can be in marking, planning and looking after a tiny number of kids who have nowhere to go due to parents who are grafting in the hospitals etc.
 
WaPo reported yesterday that there are already dozens of cases of Covid-19 among healthcare workers. The last thing we need is an already shortage stricken healthcare system hit hard by this.

SC is considering letting nursing students, retired nurses, and nurses from other states coming to the state and being granted temporary licenses. I've seen several other states do the same.
 
So, my fiancée's ex-husband lives between Israel and the US. At present he is in Israel due to the virus. He wants my stepson to get in a plane to Israel at the weekend and stay until things blow over. We've pulled him out of college because he has asthma and we think the college's handling of some things has been quite stupid.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
I've been really impressed with our response so far. I know that frontline physicians are also full of praise for the HSE. Brand new CT scanners ordered and paid for within 24 hours of the request (which would usually take years to sort out) I didn't think we had it in us but it really does look as though we'll be one of the countries following best possible practice in trying to delay the spread of this fecking thing as much as possible.
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I hope so. We have a similar population to Singapore spread out over a much greater landmass. Weather aside, we should be able to cope in a similar way.

Last night my mother and sister both started showing symptoms, they’re now both booked in for tests at Croker tomorrow after talking to their GP today. They both got called within 30 minutes.
 
It's mental up north, our company is saying keep 2 meters apart from the guy you literally have to hand something to every minute, also share your break with him on a small table :lol:

Nothing seems to have changed round here so far, parents taking kids out of schools but then taking them to the local pub for their dinners.

Shops are a bit mad and bare.

Doesn't seem like anyone is staying home though, cars and people everywhere.
 
Carolina Red said:
WaPo reported yesterday that there are already dozens of cases of Covid-19 among healthcare workers. The last thing we need is an already shortage stricken healthcare system hit hard by this.

SC is considering letting nursing students, retired nurses, and nurses from other states coming to the state and being granted temporary licenses. I've seen several other states do the same.
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I think like us here in the UK, your government are refusing to test frontline health staff.

I can only guess that if they know for certain that they have it, the reduction in manpower will be so great government is scared of the system collapsing already, and the panic leading to far worse than hoarding.
 
People using this to bash Boris and his cabinet or whatever it's called... Just feck off, half you can't decide which shampoo to buy, let alone make serious decisions. It's not the time to play "political smartarses".
 
No idea of the politics of Scott Morrison, but his speech to Australia last night was one of the best I've heard in levelling with the public on the severity of the situation and going through all the behaviour changes they need to make. I think the UK could do with a bit more firm direction in hindsight.

 
Nogbadthebad said:
I think like us here in the UK, your government are refusing to test frontline health staff.

I can only guess that if they know for certain that they have it, the reduction in manpower will be so great government is scared of the system collapsing already, and the panic leading to far worse than hoarding.
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Yet they'll test NBA folks real quick apparently
 
One Night Only said:
People using this to bash Boris and his cabinet or whatever it's called... Just feck off, half you can't decide which shampoo to buy, let alone make serious decisions. It's not the time to play "political smartarses".
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Agreed. Whitty and Vallance would have been our CMO and CSA regardless of the political party leading the government.

Corbyn would have been following the same roadmap.
 
2cents said:
Glad to see we’re trying to emulate South Korea:

Coronavirus Ireland: Varadkar told that 15,000 tests a day can be carried out

TAOISEACH Leo Varadkar has been told that Irish health authorities should be able to carry out some 15,000 Coronavirus tests per day as efforts to battle the pandemic intensify.

On a visit to the National Virus Reference Laboratory (NVRL) in UCD on Wednesday, Mr Varadkar said that testing combined with social isolation were essential to combating the spread of the virus as had been shown in South Korea...

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/amp.ind...-tests-a-day-can-be-carried-out-39055060.html
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15,000 a day seem like an awful lot given the relatively small size of our population.

How much were South Korea testing per day?
 
One Night Only said:
It's mental up north, our company is saying keep 2 meters apart from the guy you literally have to hand something to every minute, also share your break with him on a small table :lol:

Nothing seems to have changed round here so far, parents taking kids out of schools but then taking them to the local pub for their dinners.

Shops are a bit mad and bare.

Doesn't seem like anyone is staying home though, cars and people everywhere.
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Where up in North ?
 
sullydnl said:
15,000 a day seem like an awful lot given the relatively small size of our population.

How much were South Korea testing per day?
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I thought it was about 15,000. If you read down through the article, Varadkar says 15,000 per week which seems much more realistic - but the guy in UCD seems to think 15,000 per day will be possible.

Either way, I’m happy we’re aspiring to test as many as possible. The more people know they have it, the more we can keep them away from others and trace who they’ve been in contact with, so we can then test them. Hopefully this will help reduce asymptomatic spreaders. We’ve a manageable enough population that it should help.
 
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/13/science.abb3221

Abstract
Estimation of the prevalence and contagiousness of undocumented novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV2) infections is critical for understanding the overall prevalence and pandemic potential of this disease. Here we use observations of reported infection within China, in conjunction with mobility data, a networked dynamic metapopulation model and Bayesian inference, to infer critical epidemiological characteristics associated with SARS-CoV2, including the fraction of undocumented infections and their contagiousness. We estimate 86% of all infections were undocumented (95% CI: [82%–90%]) prior to 23 January 2020 travel restrictions. Per person, the transmission rate of undocumented infections was 55% of documented infections ([46%–62%]), yet, due to their greater numbers, undocumented infections were the infection source for 79% of documented cases. These findings explain the rapid geographic spread of SARS-CoV2 and indicate containment of this virus will be particularly challenging.
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Don't overreact. First of all it's just regarding China. Second, your respective countries' experts very likely know/suspect this already and are figuring it into their responses.
 
Hid a speaker upstairs and played a siren so the kids have ran down panicking, "there's an alarm! What does it mean? Are we staying off school?" :lol:
 
Pogue Mahone said:
I've been really impressed with our response so far. I know that frontline physicians are also full of praise for the HSE. Brand new CT scanners ordered and paid for within 24 hours of the request (which would usually take years to sort out) I didn't think we had it in us but it really does look as though we'll be one of the countries following best possible practice in trying to delay the spread of this fecking thing as much as possible.
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In a weird way, would the fact that the HSE is already so stretched be .. helping us right now? Seems that we are doing pretty much everything in our power to limit the strain on the HSE. I wonder if we did have a health service on the level of a country like Italy or France would we still be acting like we are.
 
JPRouve said:
We have only five legal reasons to leave the house: Go to work, go to groceries stores, for medical reasons, for family emergencies and to walk dogs or individual physical activities.

When we go out we need to fill an attestation with the reason for breaking the lockdown, our name, birthdate and address. There is an other form that is given by your employer attesting that you work for him.
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Don’t get me wrong I know people need to leave the house but that’s quite a consideration amount of reasons to leave the house. It’s basically what’s happened in the UK but instead of calling it lockdown it’s called essential travel.
 
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