SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

I really think this is going to last a year. Maybe you will have peaks and troughs, where it gets better then gets worse and then gets better.

Even if they manage to contain it in the next few weeks where i am (Ireland) once they open up the country again, it will more than likely return. The guardian said it would be 2021 before the whole world gets it under control.
 
Vallance giving evidence to a committee at the moment and the more i hear the more I'm convinced the main issue they've had is a cocked up attempt by the government to take particular communication lines initially.
 
Ekkie Thump said:
.38% is nowhere near the worst that Imperial College is predicting, what on earth are you talking about? Here is the actual word for word assessment of the worst case scenario for the UK from the Imperial College study:



That's twice your figure and doesn't even take into account the excess deaths caused by lack of access to necessary healthcare.

Your figure is based on the number of deaths being 250,000. That is an optimistic figure, not a worst case scenario. Again from the study:
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That's the study that the UK govt. is coming under fire for ignoring, right?
 
Amar__ said:
Dream scenario and the smallest loss would be something like 21 day total lockdown in the entire world, army and police in proper suits and masks on the streets patrolling and SOS lines for the weakest. It would probably stop the virus from spreading totally, but of course it's pretty much impossible with so many irresponsible people around us.
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If I am being honest, I thought us from the Balkans (Bosnia, Serbia, Kosovo) would at least be easy to quarantine due to the majority of the population's experience with wartime quarantine. However, it just has not been working so far and it seems that sterner measures will be needed here.

If we can stay home, what chances are there of people in the West listening to advice en masse? Slim to none, I would say.
 
hungrywing said:
That's the study that the UK govt. is coming under fire for ignoring, right?
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From what I gather it's the study that influenced them to shift policy in the last couple of days - i could be wrong about that though.
 
407 new cases today is quite the leap, probably flattens when you consider yesterday didn't see such a huge jump.
 
Amar__ said:
Dream scenario and the smallest loss would be something like 21 day total lockdown in the entire world, army and police in proper suits and masks on the streets patrolling and SOS lines for the weakest. It would probably stop the virus from spreading totally, but of course it's pretty much impossible with so many irresponsible people around us.
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Still wouldn't work because it was spread through homes at different rates. Everyone would have been to individually isolated, which is work of science fiction.

Even then, what about all the army, police and medical workers? This isn't a sprint.
 
We have one politician telling us that we are 3 weeks away from Italy. Then the chief scientific advisor for the government tells us infection rates should come down in 2 to 3 weeks. So which one is it?
 
Hound Dog said:
If I am being honest, I thought us from the Balkans (Bosnia, Serbia, Kosovo) would at least be easy to quarantine due to the majority of the population's experience with wartime quarantine. However, it just has not been working so far and it seems that sterner measures will be needed here.

If we can stay home, what chances are there of people in the West listening to advice en masse? Slim to none, I would say.
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Yeah, people are just irresponsible. Our mentality is just like that, people are selfish and that's the biggest problem of mankind in general. I think we are bit lucky that we are still smaller countries in general, and that we are far from urban places like Milano, tc. when it comes to overpopulation and number of people passing through.

Majority of our countries actually did decent jobs with lockdowns pretty early(in comparission with other big countries from EU), but if we did quarantines just two weeks earlier we would be probably having no cases at all.

For me the most important thing is that police regulary checks people who are in quarantine now, because we still have relatively small number of people infected and it still can be controlled. If it goes bad, we are fecked because our health is on ridiculously bad level anyway.
 
TMDaines said:
Still wouldn't work because it was spread through homes at different rates. Everyone would have been to individually isolated, which is work of science fiction.

Even then, what about all the army, police and medical workers? This isn't a sprint.
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Of course, that's why I said 21 days instead of 14, I believe 21 days would be more than good for homes with 1-5 people. But it's just a guess, maybe 30 day is more realistic.

With proper instructions and proper equipment I belive police and army wouldn't be a problem, but as I said on the beggining, it's a dream scenario that's pretty much impossible. But still probably the only solution.

If amything, it could work for smaller countries I reckon, with closing the borders after that.
 
NinjaFletch said:
I mean the clue is in the name that the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome didn't originate in China...
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The WHO do not know where it originated but there were outbreaks in Camels in several countries including South Asia. They believe the virus originated in bats and transmitted to Camels some time ago. I may have to stand corrected on MERs originating in China but nobody knows where it did start.

China needs to stand up and be counted.
 
Utdstar01 said:
We have one politician telling us that we are 3 weeks away from Italy. Then the chief scientific advisor for the government tells us infection rates should come down in 2 to 3 weeks. So which one is it?
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In theory we could be where Italy were 3 weeks ago and not end up where they are now in 3 weeks time.
 
https://twitter.com/Egbert_PengWu

This bloke on Twitter has been doing a good job of charting the UK numbers:

ETUZRtIXsAEWPjW


ETUZVYAXgAA_Crw
 
blue blue said:
Butting in here but I totally agree. SARS, MERS and now this. Its always them.

This can't go unchallenged.
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SARS & SARS2 originate from Bats that are carriers of a very similar virus, which transmits to other animals through a variety of ways. These bats just happen to be in China, the Chinese people/government didn't put them there. WTF do you want them to do?
 
Amar__ said:
Of course, that's why I said 21 days instead of 14, I believe 21 days would be more than good for homes with 1-5 people. But it's just a guess, maybe 30 day is more realistic.

With proper instructions and proper equipment I belive police and army wouldn't be a problem, but as I said on the beggining, it's a dream scenario that's pretty much impossible. But still probably the only solution.

If amything, it could work for smaller countries I reckon, with closing the borders after that.
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Even 28 days wouldn't work. You have households with 8+ people in it and it could well spread only every 5 days. There is no dream sprint scenario outside of science fiction or a miracle. Even those countries that have done the most stringent lockdowns, reducing the growth in cases, and are going to have to take very precise, carefully planned steps for months, if not a year.

People need to remember we cannot test who has had the virus yet. We can only test who has the virus.
 
I get that China's demand for food is high. But rather than putting anything and everything on the menu, they need to reduce the number of species they eat and then keep them separate locations so that cross-infection doesn't occur.

The best model for them to follow is the battery farming we have here in the West. It's the one way that'll allow them to keep up with demand.
 
Simbo said:
SARS & SARS2 originate from Bats that are carriers of a very similar virus, which transmits to other animals through a variety of ways. These bats just happen to be in China, the Chinese people/government didn't put them there. WTF do you want them to do?
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Not eat the bats?
 
adexkola said:
What data points are you using to make that argument?
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No data. Just a feeling that we haven’t seen the worst from the virus yet and that we need to do all we can to contain it. Having millions of kids and staff together in small classrooms with the way things are is ridiculous, imo. Better be safe than sorry.
 
Simbo said:
SARS & SARS2 originate from Bats that are carriers of a very similar virus, which transmits to other animals through a variety of ways. These bats just happen to be in China, the Chinese people/government didn't put them there. WTF do you want them to do?
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Stop eating Bats?
 
One Night Only said:
Not eat the bats?
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You don't actually need to eat bats, bats generally eat fruits and pathogens are transmitted from their saliva to fallen fruits that are then eaten by other animals, in Africa it can be forest antelopes or even farmed goats, nothing as shocking as people seem to have in mind, in some cases mosquitoes and flies will then carry some of these pathogens around.

The reality of these viruses is that they exist and that the closer we physically get from tropical forest, the more space we take, the likelier we are to be infected by something that we can't handle. There are organisms in the middle of the Amazon and Africa that you don't want to meet.
 
maniak said:
Silly Question time: I normally go around at night taking photos in my hometown. I do it alone and if I don't touch anything there's zero chance I can get this, right?
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My friend is a photographer in Florence and he does just this. He has some incredible photos of landmarks that would otherwise be populated by people.
 
Dante said:
I get that China's demand for food is high. But rather than putting anything and everything on the menu, they need to reduce the number of species they eat and then keep them separate locations so that cross-infection doesn't occur.

The best model for them to follow is the battery farming we have here in the West. It's the one way that'll allow them to keep up with demand.
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That's a gross generalisation. It's not even the general populace in China that partake in the consumption of these exotic meats, but the rich and powerful. Their greed and selfishness is what has caused this:

 
blue blue said:
Stop eating Bats?
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The problem is that if the bat eats a bit of fruit and then drops it, then some other animal eats it and it gets in the system.

The film Contaigon basically demonstrated this. A bat dropped a piece of fruit it was eating into a pig farm which was then eaten by someone and so the disease took off.

Granted though, they should close them wet markets (they wont) to lower the probability of something happening. But like i say there are other ways of the virus entering the system.

In fairness loads of people said a pandemic was just a question of when.
 
Ekkie Thump said:
I don't think consumption is the main mode of transmission either for animals or humans (could be wrong).
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My reply was tongue in cheek, but you are right. Transmission comes from prolonged close contact.

Not sure if you've ever been to a Chinese food market but they're fecking disgusting. Live animals, dead animals, dying animals and people all layered on top of each other with zero consideration for hygiene. It's no surprise so many diseases originate there and there's not a chance anything even remotely similar would be allowed to exist in the UK. We should not be making excuses for them.
 
rotherham_red said:
The irony, considering Africa has got off relatively lightly thus far while America's response has potentially been the worst of any country up til now.
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Not sure how well Africa is doing to be honest and where they are with testing. I'm not that concerned about catching it myself, I think there's a very good chance I'll have it within the next year from what I've seen, I'm concerned about not getting medical help (hopefully I won't need it) or passing it to relatives (so I'd keep myself away from them after return anyway). Besides, I just want to go to US way more than I want to go to Zanzibar anyway.
 
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