SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Beachryan said:
Despite being literally very isolated (on a rock in the Atlantic), our school has just closed, and we're being told no more large gatherings. Zero confirmed cases to date, seem to be doing the 'right' thing and being proactive.

My question though, thinking about friends that work at restaurants, in physios, at gyms etc - at what point is the cure worse than the disease? For me personally, this feels 'novel' and like the politicians are (finally) doing what the medical experts said is best for flattening the curve.

But surely that's only one aspect of running a country? If huge swathes of the workforce run out of money, at a time emergency services are fully overwhelmed, aren't we going to see a situation far worse than the worst-case corona virus forecasts?

I can't see countries doing this for 2 months. There's not even spare resource to go around, even with government bailouts and so forth.
Click to expand...

It's trying to keep the projected cases present at any one time below the capacity of the health services but not too far below. It's fairly well established what track the disease takes if left unchecked, and what happens under total enforced lockdown. You've probably seen the below chart by now.

Allow the virus to go unchecked and millions may die from the virus and the subsequent destruction of the health system. Lockdown too hard and the virus won't get you but millions may die from the economic destruction. All governments are scrambling to figure out where on the curve of cases they currently are and what they need to do to get as close to the healthcare capacity without breaching it. The complication is that they don't know where they really are at any given time until about 7 days after the fact.

Countries like the UK who are relatively early on don't need quite such strict measures as they have more time to flatten their curves, whereas countries like Italy need strict lockdowns because they are already right at the edge of their healthcare capacity and need to stop the case growth asap.


curve-flattening_MTFP.png
 
Redlambs said:
I'm not sure if it's people trying too hard or what, but the fact I am close to losing everything thanks to this makes me a little less tolerant of the moral high ground on that one. However, I will say even after all that, I'm not going to blame the Chinese people. Those guys in those markets, that is their life. As soon as an actual racist feck like Trump calls it a Chinese virus, you know it's time to step back a little.

What I can't stand though, is people in here actually praising China's handling of it. Those fecks in power have hid this, and I bet everything left they still are, and caused this. Millions of people are suffering and millions more about to harder, all because those cnuts tried to keep this a secret. Yet some want to use this outcome to criticise the West? feck that. We have our own shit over here, no denying it, but the very fact they can weld people in at the drop of a hat and everyone has to kneel down and go with whatever is thrown at them, is one of the many reasons so many poor resort to wet markets in the first place. That's not a fecking strength.
Click to expand...
I am reading Travellers in the Third Reich: The Rise of Fascism Through the Eyes of Everyday People currently. People's misguided hunger for dictatorships, and the belief that they would never be the ones to suffer under them, will never change.
 
DoomSlayer said:
Guys, how long before we know for certain if these lockdowns will actually work?

I fear that everything will be for nothing, the virus will keep spreading even after the strong measures and the crippled economy will doom the lower class, especially in poor countries. :(
Click to expand...

of course they will work to a certain degree it’s physically impossible for it not to slow down the spread as long as the majority do what they are told. It’s all doom and gloom atm but the world has coped with worse and recovered when we knew a lot less then we do today. Some businesses will unfortunately crumble but on the other hand some will prosper greatly. We will have a single scientific drive with all the best people in the world heading towards one goal of a cure/vaccination for this new disease.

with sensible approaches after the lock down we can keep the spread to a relative minimum with some sacrifices don’t fall into the trap of consuming the media 24/7 it will only make you feel worse.
 
TMDaines said:
That's the spin of many newspapers and political commentators. One of the original authors of that report meanwhile said:



People keep trying to present this as a polemic argument with two different camps: all countries that meaningfully comparable to us are employing variations on similar strategies, i.e. "Flattening the curve not so different from containment." We, and all other countries in fact, will continue to evolve our strategies based on what the multitude of models tell us with new data and incorporating lessons learned. This ain't Apollo 13; we don't do all the maths up front, intervene once and pray we have got it spot on.
Click to expand...



This bloke says different.

For the record, he's the editor of The Lancet

 
sullydnl said:
There is indeed so much we need to learn.

My problem with this particular "botch" by the UK is that it was based on something that was already clearly evident, even without the need for such extensive modelling. Based on what we were seeing in Italy, it was impossible for the UK's health service to cope under the UK's initial approach. When this was (repeatedly and vogourously) pointed out by people including those in the health service itself, the response was to say that this had all been carefully modeled and judged. When it was pointed that the UK's approach varied significantly from that of other countries and the WHO, the response was to suggest that there was no guarantee thay those other countries were doing things correctly.

For it then to turn out that the UK had misjudged such a fundamental factor so badly and so obviously (the emergency surge capacity could have been exceeded up to eight times over its limit) undermines trust in any further advice or reassurance that the UK is following the correct advice, especially if/when it deviates from what other countries are doing.

It's one thing to say that different approaches can only be assessed in the fullness of time but this particular approach was deemed to be a failure after only a few weeks, before it had even fully been implemented.
Click to expand...
This last response I made to you, would be my comment on this. I'm not sure how qualified we are to otherwise make the strong conclusion that you are.
 
Regulus Arcturus Black said:
No, the foreign embassy has advised against all non-essential travel. We recently did the same in Sweden.

No choice really, insurance won't cover you and who knows if you'll get back or even have a hotel, shops, restaurants etc.
Click to expand...
Just seen that ‘non-essential travel’ but they newsreader started with worldwide travel ban.
 
arnie_ni said:
missed the start of this, but surely something has to change in china in some way shape or form, do you not agree?
Click to expand...
Agree but

1)The CCP is the second(And possibly after this crisis, the first)biggest superpower in the world. There's no country that can tell them(Let alone force them)to do anything. Plus they've already made changes such as a temporary ban on farming and consumption of "terrestrial wildlife of important ecological, scientific and social value,"

Although it is unclear which animal transferred the virus to humans -- bat, snake and pangolin have all been suggested -- China has acknowledged it needs to bring its lucrative wildlife industry under control if it is to prevent another outbreak.
In late February, it slapped a temporary ban on all farming and consumption of "terrestrial wildlife of important ecological, scientific and social value," which is expected to be signed into law later this year

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/05/...-wildlife-consumption-ban-intl-hnk/index.html
Click to expand...

From the little I know(so please someone correct me if I'm wrong)this disease came from wet markets which happens because of parties lobbying the communist government(On the left this is called being a bad communist). This is a issue every government face and well........that's capitalism baby! The same article

Exotic animals can also be an important status symbol. "Wild animals are expensive. If you treat somebody with wild animals, it will be considered that you're paying tribute," she said. A single peacock can cost as much as 800 yuan

Attempts to control the spread of diseases are also hindered by the fact that the industry for exotic animals in China, especially wild ones, is enormous. A government-sponsored report in 2017 by the Chinese Academy of Engineering found the country's wildlife trade was worth more than $73 billion and employed more than one million people.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/05/...-wildlife-consumption-ban-intl-hnk/index.html
Click to expand...

Diseases like convid - 19 and the response to them come out from supporting a economic system that produces mass inequity.

2)The crisis has worsened in Europe because of the complete failure of western governments and the hollowness of the current capitalist economy that is keeping them afloat. It isn't anyone fault in Wuhan that the British government(Which gets it's power through the votes of the British public)has destroy the country manufacturing base, so now they are begging private companies to produce ventilators, the people of Wuhan didn't spend the last decade attacking the NHS, it's not the CCP who are refusing to shut downing business, etc etc.

3)Lots of people are stupid and bigoted sadly. Keeping a continued link between Wuhan or China will only lead to bigoted discrimination against any asian person in the west(Again because people are stupid and bigoted).

esmufc07 said:
What do you propose?
Click to expand...
A combination of government and the companies working together to help fund workers through this difficult time. Similar policies to that of Denmark, Norway and even France.


esmufc07 said:
Thousands dying (and thousands more to come) and the economy tanking but at least you get to have a laugh at the Tories.
Click to expand...
https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/gallows-humour

11101 said:
Please keep political point scoring nonsense out of this This virus is way beyond party lines and is currently crippling countries around the world on the left and the right.
Click to expand...
Go away.
 
Last edited:
11101 said:
It's trying to keep the projected cases present at any one time below the capacity of the health services but not too far below. It's fairly well established what track the disease takes if left unchecked, and what happens under total enforced lockdown. You've probably seen the below chart by now.

Allow the virus to go unchecked and millions may die from the virus and the subsequent destruction of the health system. Lockdown too hard and the virus won't get you but millions may die from the economic destruction. All governments are scrambling to figure out where on the curve of cases they currently are and what they need to do to get as close to the healthcare capacity without breaching it. The complication is that they don't know where they really are at any given time until about 7 days after the fact.

Countries like the UK who are relatively early on don't need quite such strict measures as they have more time to flatten their curves, whereas countries like Italy need strict lockdowns because they are already right at the edge of their healthcare capacity and need to stop the case growth asap.


curve-flattening_MTFP.png
Click to expand...
I think poor countries will go into anarchy if this continues for even a month more.

Where I am, probably 60% to 80% of the small and medium-sized businesses will go bankrupt. My family work was already in the worst spot possible, now we might end up on the street, that's how bad the situation is.
 
DoomSlayer said:
Guys, how long before we know for certain if these lockdowns will actually work?

I fear that everything will be for nothing, the virus will keep spreading even after the strong measures and the crippled economy will doom the lower class, especially in poor countries. :(
Click to expand...

We already know a strict enforced lockdown works - Wuhan
We know suggested social distancing doesn't work - Italy
We will know within the next week if semi-enforced lockdown works - Italy
 
Bosws87 said:
of course they will work to a certain degree it’s physically impossible for it not to slow down the spread as long as the majority do what they are told. It’s all doom and gloom atm but the world has coped with worse and recovered when we knew a lot less then we do today. Some businesses will unfortunately crumble but on the other hand some will prosper greatly. We will have a single scientific drive with all the best people in the world heading towards one goal of a cure/vaccination for this new disease.

with sensible approaches after the lock down we can keep the spread to a relative minimum with some sacrifices don’t fall into the trap of consuming the media 24/7 it will only make you feel worse.
Click to expand...
Yeah, I guess I'm being selfish for thinking about the survival of my whole family as this crisis could finally crush us.

It's easy to feel optimistic if you are from a rich country, no offense.
 
11101 said:
We already know a strict enforced lockdown works - Wuhan
Click to expand...
Not sure if that's the case.

Who knows what information is being withheld and what could happen in a few months. We might see a second wave that proves all the hypothesis in the media to be utterly false.
 
dwd said:
That's not a travel ban (yet!)
Click to expand...

Close. Essentially voids all travel insurance, cancels most flights and tells you the government wont be able to help you if you get stranded abroad.
 
Classical Mechanic said:
It didn't look good but the initial phase was a success. I think we did much better than similar countries in that regard and I'm not aware that we're in a worse spot currently than those other nations. This situation is going to be incredibly drawn out and multifaceted with numerous variables affecting outcomes so I'll reserve my judgeent on how the government handles it for now.

I do blame the Tories for not funding the NHS properly previously though, although that's on Cameron and Osbourne.
Click to expand...

My issue is less with the position you're now in and more to do with confidence in the government going forward (though who knows what might have been done differently had suppression been the clear aim from the very start?).

The government will have to make some extremely tough choices and maintaining the confidence of the public will be key to doing that. Undermining themselves (and the science they're basing their decisions on) so early can hamper confidence in future efforts, let alone what's already been done. There will always be loud, critical voices arguing against whatever the government does, often from a position of ignorance. For those voices to have been proven correct so early will only intensify the effect of their criticism on further issues.

For example, if you're a parent in NI then you're seeing your schools being kept open while schools in the state just a few miles down the road are closed. This means that either the virus is stopping at the border or one of the two states is approaching things in a sub-optimal way. Why would you have any confidence that it's your (the UK's) government that are handling it correctly when its initial attempt to deviate from the recommended approach came apart so quickly?

So much of what the government has to do is about managing its people and their responses to different measures. Striking such an early tone of arrogance and confusion is very damaging to that, I think.
 
11101 said:
Close. Essentially voids all travel insurance, cancels most flights and tells you the government wont be able to help you if you get stranded abroad.
Click to expand...
I know that but it's quite different to banning all travel, which we aren't at that stage yet. Let's not forget some people are stuck here and others in different countries so the spreading of misinformation could cause distress.
 
DoomSlayer said:
Not sure if that's the case.

Who knows what information is being withheld and what could happen in a few months. We might see a second wave that proves all the hypothesis in the media to be utterly false.
Click to expand...

We already expect a second wave that's part of the hypothesis.
 
DoomSlayer said:
Yeah, I guess I'm being selfish for thinking about the survival of my whole family as this crisis could finally crush us.

It's easy to feel optimistic if you are from a rich country, no offense.
Click to expand...
Dude average americans are way worse than our country in such situation and they are from a so called "rich" country.
 
Regulus Arcturus Black said:
So you think anyone travelling on non-essential travel now, say a weekend away, deserves cover if all shops and hotels are closed, the border then also and they get stranded?
Click to expand...

Quite certain he means the move isn’t enough for people who already had travel planned and paid for to be compensated by their insurance because travel isn’t “banned”.
 
DoomSlayer said:
Guys, how long before we know for certain if these lockdowns will actually work?

I fear that everything will be for nothing, the virus will keep spreading even after the strong measures and the crippled economy will doom the lower class, especially in poor countries. :(
Click to expand...

Somewhere between 2-3 weeks to slow spread. The amount of time it takes to bring the total number of infections down to a manageable level depends on your starting point. China started at 400 and it's 4 weeks pending.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.