I studied Law but started with Physics.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
I studied Law but started with Physics.
What happens when the nurses/doctors and even shop workers/pharmacists become I'll? Surely it'll spread like wildfire between them and cause mass closures of places?
As I said, I appreciate those implications but don’t limit yourself to a single take on some data.
Take Italy for example, if they tested everyone in the country a couple of weeks ago and they found that 30% of positive tests were in younger people, it would reduce the mortality rate considerably considering how few deaths there have been under 50.
It would also suggest that we could tackle this virus in an entirely different way. People under 40 could be encouraged to continue as normal, maybe even be a encouraged to get infected like chicken pox while vulnerable people isolate. The “herd immunity is then achieved by the low risk population. The elderly could then be withdrawn from isolation in a controlled fashion at a rate the health system can cope with.
Judging from the cases you've seen so far, when do you think the NHS will be overrun and unable to cope - leading to the government to take severe action?
Hope that changes once we start ramping up test kit production.
You said 'were'. I'd imagine they're all taking it very seriously by now. If not then the govt. needs to get it out there in graphics and posters.
I see on Twitter that an Iceland store in Belfast are opening their store between 8am and 9am for the elderly only, nice touch. Be great if others would do this but I doubt it'd last long with stupid rioting crowds.
Thanks for the reply, really helpful in my decision. He will most definitely be staying at home with me as I work for a lot of public gathering events as security which is now on hold for the forseeable future.
Also, tbh, if this is how your brain works, my child would gain alot more from being taught by myself and wife.
Value of life> "likeminded"
No contracts, just freelance repair work in my own small workshop. I'm a one man band. The other side of the business is that I do build and sell computers online, I would say that would sustain me but actually, people don't tend to be buying PCs right now and I think it's because they're being careful with money given the uncertainty of the next few months.
Physics is awesome. If i didn't do engineering, this would have been my second choice.
That's why they fascinates me, they seem to be a main suspect in a lot of disease whether it concerns humans or animals. Komodo dragons are an other interesting animal.
What I mean is that if the lockdown is supposed to achieve anything, it needs to be immediate. Do it right now, you slow down the spread, and many people might still continue working (more in a couple of months when the restrictions loosen). Do it at the peak (millions of infected), it cannot achieve anything and the economy is crippled cause too many people cannot work.
I have no idea if the lockdown will achieve anything or not. But if it can achieve anything, it has to happen ASAP.
Yeah, you're right. I think I'll just cancel, we'll probably be all under lockdown by next week anyway.
I had a grand total of 5 tables last night and I told the customers it would better if they had just ordered take-out. One couple in particular were just so adamant in their lackadaisicalness that it really wound me up, the more I tried to explain about keeping infections down for the sake of icu patients, the more they dug their heels in. A lot of people will be facing the kiss of karma soon enough.
@Revan... remember this came from one food market in China and has taking over the entire planet in a matter of weeks.
So the circumstances where a lockdown becomes better later than sooner is the one in which it is designed to help the NHS at a critical point and save lives by flattening the curve at the right time, rather than being used as a tool to eradicate the virus.
Flattening the curve too early serves little purpose if the NHS are coping an you are certain the virus is still going to be around in 8 weeks.
So the circumstances where a lockdown becomes better later than sooner is the one in which it is designed to help the NHS at a critical point and save lives by flattening the curve at the right time, rather than being used as a tool to eradicate the virus.
Flattening the curve too early serves little purpose if the NHS are coping an you are certain the virus is still going to be around in 8 weeks.
I'd be very interested to see how our ability to deal with pandemics has deteriorated over the last ten or so years. You know; what would our testing rates be like if the NHS wasn't being dismantled bit by bit by the Tories?
Followed by something about minority groups. And how the House will gaffaw through phlegmed splutters as their children watch BBC Parliament whilst being homeschooled by Nanny.
"Like Alerion Blue I've found the key to spring, with tilted toothless toffs scrub a dub dubbing until the callouses grow ever more through fields of wheat."
Followed by something about minority groups. And how the House will gaffaw through phlegmed splutters as their children watch BBC Parliament whilst being homeschooled by Nanny.
@DiseaseOfTheAge Thank you!
@United58 No idea? This is new territory. There is talk of recruiting retired nurses and doctors back and also temporarily qualifying student nurses earlier to handle but it's all voluntary. Can't see that many being too keen.
@Fooza Hard to say as we don't have any confirmed cases yet but we are barely testing and results are taking 72 hours to come back, it's ludicrous.
@United58 No idea? This is new territory. There is talk of recruiting retired nurses and doctors back and also temporarily qualifying student nurses earlier to handle but it's all voluntary. Can't see that many being too keen.
@Fooza Hard to say as we don't have any confirmed cases yet but we are barely testing and results are taking 72 hours to come back, it's ludicrous.
I'm surprised they haven't claimed credit for it yet.
Never change, Pidgy
Flatten the curve is a lie. There is no way to both flatten the curve and not overwhelm the entire medical system. Unless you flatten it for 10+ years, which is not doable.
It is either containment or spreading. And by containment I might right now.
Doing a lockdown with hundreds of thousands of infected people has as chance of working as me banging Scarlett Johanssen. And I am fecking stuck in my room for a week.
That is absolute fecking madness.
Herd immunity built up from harm free immunisation is one thing but building up herd immunity without a treatment or a vaccine will mean over half a million deaths (80% infection to get herd immunity with a 1% fatality rate - 65 million population).
That seems to have been the UK's strategy, which I posted about a few days ago.
Might want to pass this on to the korean CDC so they can fire all their stats people.
EDIT: Personally I somewhat agree on the general point that snapshot stats can be misleading and their interpretation is incredibly sensitive to framing and circumstance (which is what makes them such fine-grained and powerful tools in terms of exposing potentially hidden information). But as Pexbo sort of alluded to, that chart is largely in line with what the experts are saying about the age-related demographics. It's probably not far off the bat for any large sample size.
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Of course. This'll do all kinds of businesses in. Government needs to reassure people that they aren't gonna let us all die of poverty in the next year, before anyone will be thinking of major purchases they could potentially get by without.
Likewise if I didn't do music I was going to do mechanical engineering. Which is why I now spend my nights crying into my instant noodles whilst staring at the double bass in the corner and wondering where I went wrong.
Terrifying things. I’d jog up to an alligator or snake and pat them on the head before being caught alone in the same area as a Komodo dragon.
Even if you can't flatten the curve to below the capacity line it is an approach that will still save many many lives. Delay of the spread is the main goal even if far from perfect.
So many variables to this though.
In generally, I'd assume there are more younger people than older, resulting in a bigger chance of the younger ones testing positive.
On top of that, Italy is probably a lot more selective with its testing, and with an older population, with older people showing more serious symptoms, that probably tips Italy's figures in the older bracket.... Among other things
Ah, a fellow scholar. Always good to see.
Sorry, back on topic. Scarlett Johansson is fit as feck.
If we’re not on lockdown then you shouldn’t feel guilty meeting people as this social interaction is the smallest drop in the ocean. Just adjust your behaviour accordingly. I’d probably sit far apart and outside! There’s a good chance it might become far more difficult to do in the near future. I wouldn’t begrudge anyone want to see their friends and family, unless they are at risk of complications from COVID-19 and you could be the one to give it them.
I’m lacking the appetite to want to be close to anyone apart from my wife currently though, and even with her I feel squeamish about the idea one of us could pass it onto the other unknowingly. Cuddling feels risky! I’ve got friends and colleagues who laughed when I tipped them off about Superdrug getting a fresh delivery of hand sanitiser, and seemed bewildered that you’d even want to carry some on your person. I’d be very uncomfortable being around people with that attitude right now.
One of our main supermarkets is only allowing the elderly/disabled to shop between 7 and 8 am every day.
I’m in a similar boat (freelancer designer), and I reckon it will finish my business too. As you say, nobody is going to be forking out on non-essential stuff for a while at least.
Hope they tipped!
Are you hoping to be off? Most people I know who work pubs/restaurants want the ban as soon as.
Best of luck, mate.. I can’t even imagine your job in a few weeks’ time.
I don't fully understand the UK concept. It's perfectly fine to have a model you operate after, and that you don't implement lockdowns until it reaches a certain point, but everyone behaving as everything is perfectly fine until you reach that point ? It's like driving at 190mph towards a brick road and you're supposed to break just as you hit it. It's not like medical experts weren't behind the decisions being made in Norway either, didn't take long for them to admit they were wrong and that measures should've been implemented earlier. A friend of mine is a doctor, and they obviously have their message boards over social media, it went rather quickly from "it's important to trust the work that's being done, they have their reasons" to "there's no proper plan in motion for any of this", when everyone fully agrees with the open letter from Gilbert, Gisvold and Holt you know there's a big issue. In less than 2 days we went from no measures to close to a full lockdown, and people still aren't respecting the restrictions. Most of the emergency calls over the weekend has been morons stuck in their cabins at the mountain feeling ill, which was the exact thing people were told not to do, we're being forced to introduce emergency laws as a result...
Reduce as much of your social life as you can in an attempt to limit yourself and others to potential exposure. Businesses should be encouraged to let those who can work from home do it. Advise against large social happenings like concerts, football, even going to pubs.
Reduce as much of your social life as you can in an attempt to limit yourself and others to potential exposure. Businesses should be encouraged to let those who can work from home do it. Advise against large social happenings like concerts, football, even going to pubs.
It's almost like the point of the tweet is 'We're not testing enough'.
No. Trying to flatten the curve after hospitals are overwhelmed won't work because it will already be too late. Once ICU capacity is reached you need to keep the infection rate even lower so that new infections requiring ICU are lower than the number recovering or who die. And once in ICU the average stay in that bed may be weeks rather than days. The more you overwhelm the hospitals that higher the death rate (not just numbers) will go.
It's times like this I should actually read the tweet and not look at the colourful pictures only!
They still cause rabies in the US occasionally, terrifying cnuts.