SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)



EDIT: Obviously this isn't saying 30% of 20-29 year olds were infected. The point of the tweet is 'We're not testing enough', and to ask 'Is it wise to base policy on incomplete data?''
 
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Most of the initial infected are related to a wet market in Wuhan, when live wildlife animals are kept and butchered.

How it originated is still not clear. It looks that it came from a bat who infected some other animal, which eventually infected one (or several) humans. Did that happen recently, or the jump between the bat and the intermediate species happened 20-70 years is still a topic of research. Nevertheless, not a good idea to eat wildlife animals, and not a good idea to keep dozens of different species near each other in disgusting conditions. Sooner or later, something like this was bound to happen.

Not going into biology will be one of my regrets, bats are supposed to be carying all sorts of things and I would love to know what.
 
Lockdown should mean closure of all non-essential shops. Schools, bars, pubs, restaurants, tubes, all close.
Exactly and all people should be advised not to congregate in groups larger than 5 and everyone who can should work from home. No going out, stay in, tough it out for 2-4 weeks and help flatten the curve.
 
Even if we had infinte testing resources I am not sure of the benefit of testing. Let me explain why.

If you are asymptomatic and positive, nothing to do for you.
If you are mildly symptomatic and positive, nothing to do for you.
If you are very sick, you go to hospital and get tested to make sure its this and not something else and get supportive treatment.
Thing is, if I got sick from it or have previously already had it, I’d quite like to know! I’d be much less worried if day I have already got over
Out of curiosity, if the UK goes into 'Lockdown', what does this actually mean? Is it mainly a curfew on large gatherings etc?
probably restaurants, bars, cafes, gyms closed and told to stay at home where possible whilst still being able to go to work if it’s not. All events cancelled of course. Social distancing if we go for walks etc. It’ll be a soft lockdown first. To be honest we should already be in that stage IMO
 
Out of curiosity, if the UK goes into 'Lockdown', what does this actually mean? Is it mainly a curfew on large gatherings etc?
Ban on leaving the house for any reason other than to work or acquire essentials. Closure of non-essential businesses.
 


I don’t find this terrifying. I realise the implications around how it will spread the disease but it also underlined the potential that it’s actual mortality rate is a much lower, more digestible figure.
 
15000 jobs lost overnight, apparently. Obviously public health comes first but that's a big blow for a lot of people. Especially as a lot of those workplaces won't open again.
I think one of the scariest thoughts is how the world will look once we get through this. The impact it is having already is staggering.
 
Out of curiosity, if the UK goes into 'Lockdown', what does this actually mean? Is it mainly a curfew on large gatherings etc?
I'm also curious about this. Fine I get they could shut cafes, bars and museums etc, but if supermarkets stay open, presumably they'll be real hotbeds of disease. I live in London so given the population density, staggering entry into the shops to try and minimise transmission is not feasible.
 
More than that.

We need to be able to keep shops stocked, food being produced, utilities running and medical professionals working (amongst other things).

I can understand why people think that the 'economy' should take second billing, but it's very much the backbone of everything we are as a civilised society. It's also why multiple or prolonged lockdowns are so undesirable.

When thousands of people lose their jobs, and hundreds of businesses fail, and millions of families are unable to pay for food, etc. the shit is going got hit the fan even more than it already has. Rioting and looting are real concerns.

A lockdown will happen. But it's the special one-hit weapon you use in a boss fight after you've taken their shield down. Do it to early or too late, and you lose it efficacy. Try it more than once and you leave yourself open to attacks.

This is a problem with two variables. C19 is one. The fabric of society is the other. It's why mathematicians telling epidemiologist/behavioural scientists what to do is so misguided (albeit well-meaning).
As a part-time mathematician (I am supposed to get my Ph.D. in July but probably now will never happen), I think this is bollocks. Under no circumstances it is better to make the lockdown later than earlier. If the plan is a lockdown, it should be ASAP, otherwise much will get worse. One week keeping the economy going won't help the economy that much, but it will increase 4 fold the number of infected (and consequently have long term disastrous consequences in health and even delay the shutdown of the lockdown).

The only way it makes sense to not do a lockdown, is to actually not carry it at all. Sacrifice 200k-2m people and deal with it.

This is why I am really worried that they run the numbers, they run the models and saw that every scenario has the same epilogue. Which might well be true, unfortunate as it is. But then, why the other countries are not doing the same?
 
Not going into biology will be one of my regrets, bats are supposed to be carying all sorts of things and I would love to know what.
SARS, MERS, Codid-19 are Ebola have all originated in bats. fecking bats!
 
Do you think it will be okay to have a drink with 2 other people in my house next weekend. Couple of my friends and I haven't seen one and other in about 4 months so we were planning on heading out for a mad one but that's obviously a stupid idea. 3 people in the house with a lot of beer and wine that should be fine, shouldn't it?
 
Ban on leaving the house for any reason other than to work or acquire essentials. Closure of non-essential businesses.

I'm not convinced the Tories would ever go down this road but I hope they do.

I run a small computer repair workshop, and a lockdown would probably be the end of it - but at this stage, if a lockdown saves lives, then to hell with my business and with the economy.

That said, if economic tanking ends up killing people in other ways, then that's also bad.
 
I don’t find this terrifying. I realise the implications around how it will spread the disease but it also underlined the potential that it’s actual mortality rate is a much lower, more digestible figure.

That's probably not the point. The point is probably closer to 'these are the chances you could feel fine and be killing someone else's grandma by being out and about'
 
Yes. Yes you have bullied him enough. Lay off the insults and ignore him for now and just let him come to the realisation himself in 3 to 4 weeks.
You reckon? I do think castigation is an important influence in this, as far many more folk than himself will see how pissed off with him we were and think twice going forward. I don't think just one person telling him he was being a moron would've been enough.

Fair enough, if you think it's enough now, though.
 
I'm not convinced the Tories would ever go down this road but I hope they do.

I run a small computer repair workshop, and a lockdown would probably be the end of it - but at this stage, if a lockdown saves lives, then to hell with my business and with the economy.

That said, if economic tanking ends up killing people in other ways, then that's also bad.
Is this a high street type operation or do you get contracted from Currys and the likes?
 
I didn't say that. I said the number of people who will require hospitalization is significantly higher than in the case of flu/common cold so people trying to proactively get sick just because they think they will survive it is a VERY BAD idea.
2. If you get it, you will still need to get medical care, meaning you will be taking up resources at a hospital.
 
Do you think it will be okay to have a drink with 2 other people in my house next weekend. Couple of my friends and I haven't seen one and other in about 4 months so we were planning on heading out for a mad one but that's obviously a stupid idea. 3 people in the house with a lot of beer and wine that should be fine, shouldn't it?

No. Just forget about any trivial, non-essential things you had planned for the next while. They can all be done when appropriate.
 

A statistician will be able to comment, but you can’t just compare the results like that. You need to know how many were tested in each bucket too at least, and standardise to allow for differences in population.
 
Can't go into details but I'm a nurse and the fact that we are not testing people is a scary! I've been told that I may be C-19 triaging tomorrow so I phoned a work buddy who was triaging today for a run down as to what I have to do tomorrow and the protocols in place is a farce.

Anyone who is suspected with C-19 is not being tested unless they need to be admitted for hospital treatment. People with coughs and high temps are just being sent home. Obvisouly each one has potential to be infected and you just hope they are sensible about going home to self isolate and not stopping off at Starbucks on the way.

Obviously if you are very ill then we welcome you but it's also clear that people are not listening to the self isolation instructions and turning up to ED regardless of their symptoms. Also loads of staff already self isolating. This is going to bring the NHS to its knees if people carry using this service so irresponsibily.
 
Can't go into details but I'm a nurse and the fact that we are not testing people is a scary! I've been told that I may be C-19 triaging tomorrow so I phoned a work buddy who was triaging today for a run down as to what I have to do tomorrow and the protocols in place is a farce.

Anyone who is suspected with C-19 is not being tested unless they need to be admitted for hospital treatment. People with coughs and high temps are just being sent home. Obvisouly each one has potential to be infected and you just hope they are sensible about going home to self isolate and not stopping off at Starbucks on the way.

Obviously if you are very ill then we welcome you but it's also clear that people are not listening to the self isolation instructions and turning up to ED regardless of their symptoms. Also loads of staff already self isolating. This is going to bring the NHS to its knees if people carry using this service so irresponsibily.
All the best whenever it is you start on the front line of this. I don't fancy it one bit but then I know I don't have what it takes to be a nurse.