SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Revan said:
Except those that were expecting it. Like pretty much every expert. But what do they know?

Wuhan started lockdown at 400 cases, while doing more testing than Italy. Italy started the lockdown on a few thousand cases. Of course it it gonna be worse than in Wuhan, heck it is very likely that Italy is gonna reach the point (in the next week or two) that in a single day there are gonna be more deaths than accumulated deaths in Wuhan.

And it is gonna be soon in UK, and US and all the other stupid countries that are not taking this seriously. While China, South Korea, Japan, Singapore, Israel are gonna be fine cause they don’t have morons in charge.
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Italy also has numerous complicating factors in their outbreak: they didn’t get to grips with the initial outbreak, the outbreak blew up in one region, they have a tactile culture, they have a large elderly population, they have have a high percentage of elderly people living with younger people; they have a lot of smokers (2x the number of the UK) ((smokers were found to be 50% more likely to need hospital treatment and 33% more likely to need a ventilator IIRC)), compared to the UK they have a higher prevalence of diabetes, hypertension and heart disease (the 3 comorbidities found to be the strongest indicators of death).

Countries like Hong Kong, Japan etc also have more compliant populations with as they‘ve suffered outbreaks before.

I agree that lots will die in the West though.
 
Revan said:
Harvard school really estimated that. Is the estimation true is hard to know, but it certainly is over 10x hidden infected for every infected.
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Yeah, it could be very high because we don't really know the proportion of people that are asymptomatics or minimally symptomatics, that's where early testings would have been useful because some virologists think that the Asian and European strains could be slightly different maybe it affects that part or maybe it doesn't but at the moment we can only effectively use data coming from South Korea.

Whatever happens, it would be interesting to know if we got it afterward, in order to get a better understanding of it. I don't know if it's possible though.
 
sullydnl said:
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Hopefully they move soon to having daily televised briefings and getting Hancock out the way. The "quarantine over 70s for four months" hasn't been helpful either.
 
lsd said:
Most of the bars in Derry are closing tonight for the foreseeable future.

My sister is a health visitor hasn't nursed in a hospital in years but has been told she and others will be required to go in probably week after next when it is expected to hit big time .

Also calling up retired health workers . There is a lot happening behind the scenes . I expect a lot of places like libraries , halls etc to be fitted out to take care of people.

This is going to be a very bumpy ride
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You’re in Derry?
 
Starkie_1 said:
Nice. Well put Sir. How’s hiding away in your bunker, stockpiling the toilet rolls and sending panicked messages to people you’ve never met on the internet going for you?

The 24 hours news and constant misinformation is going to be the biggest issue the current plan has to overcome.
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Not entirely sure where i'm panicking, nor am i hiding away anywhere, i have about 120-180 travel days a year going all over the world
 
Di Maria's angel said:
Its people with this very view who have caused the biggest issues across the planet. The reason Italy have almost amassed 2000 deaths is because they went on with their lives and made nothing of this virus. Don't listen to me. Open your eyes and just see whats happening around the planet.
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You do realise that every country has its own infrastructures, it’s own medical system, it’s own expert advice. You do also realise that, as with all life, sometimes it’s not fair and that others get it much worse. For reasons it takes years and years to understand. My mindset is exactly as it should be, taking it seriously, making sure I minimise all risk to those vulnerable around me and awaiting further instruction into how to live my daily life. I’ll be going into school tomorrow, 2 members of staff down in a team of 5, teaching upto 60 kids at a time their PE and fitness lessons for 6 hours. I’ll also then have to manage my team who look after a large group for their after school clubs, around 100 in a variety of sports. But you tell me I’m the selfish one.
 
Ubik said:
Hopefully they move soon to having daily televised briefings and getting Hancock out the way. The "quarantine over 70s for four months" hasn't been helpful either.
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Yeah, literally 0% of the population want to from Matt Hancock right now. At least Andy Burham has that degree of self-reflection about him.
 
Classical Mechanic said:
Italy also has numerous complicating factors in their outbreak: they didn’t get to grips with the initial outbreak, the outbreak blew up in one region, they have a tactile culture, they have a large elderly population, they have have a high percentage of elderly people living with younger people; they have a lot of smokers (2x the number of the UK) ((smokers were found to be 50% more likely to need hospital treatment and 33% more likely to need a ventilator IIRC)), compared to the UK they have a higher prevalence of diabetes, hypertension and heart disease (the 3 comorbidities found to be the strongest indicators of death).
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Looking at the charts, Italy definitely seem to be out of proportion compared to everywhere else, even if we assume the likes of China/Iran are lying or under reporting their figures. Spain and Germany are fairly new to join the outbreak club, we'll see if their mortality rate are anywhere near as scary as Italys.
 
Starkie_1 said:
Nice of you to leave the rest of my post off your reply. Do whatever you want. If you want to believe you’re doing the right thing, good for you. I’ll stick to doing what my school and local council, department of education and government has told us to do. When that changes I’ll do what is expected.
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It's all well and good doing what you've been told by your bosses.

It was the condescending tone and the boasting about socialising with like minded affluent people which was over the top.

You can hardly not go to with if the Dep of Education says you're open but social distancing is something everyone should be doing regardless of their own current govt's advice. It's a no-brainer really when you look at what's happening to every other country further down the road of this thing.
 
Wumminator said:
How can you look at a virus that is just getting started killing around 500 people in a day and think “24/7 news has a lot to answer for”

People who are staying in who desperately want to go out? They're putting societies needs before their own. They are literally the people who are gonna help us out.
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Well said, man.

This is telling for humanity. At the very least, it will reveal the true colours of so many.
 
mu4c_20le said:
Looking at the charts, Italy definitely seem to be out of proportion compared to everywhere else, even if we assume the likes of China/Iran are lying or under reporting their figures. Spain and Germany are fairly new to join the outbreak club, we'll see if their mortality rate are anywhere near as scary as Italys.
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Spain passed from 2.5% to 3.7% mortality rate in 48 hours
 
Starkie_1 said:
You’ve accused me and all of those I was with of being ‘morons’.And that’s your response?
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You are.

I'm not panicking, just stating the obvious.

Things are getting out hand because people are morons
 
BBC: Bath half marathon goes ahead despite Coronavirus fears

They said said 6,200 runners took part - about half the usual number.
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Full BBC story here.

FFS

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balaks said:
Will only get higher as their health service becomes unable to treat people.
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Absolutely. Also, the first "big Batch" of infected they are just starting to get worse. So sure will spike. Italy infection rate fluctuate sometimes, but the deads only grow
 
It seems like my friend (she's in her 20s) in London has caught it, developed a dry cough a few days ago but obviously they won't test her there.
 
UncleBob said:
You are.

I'm not panicking, just stating the obvious.

Things are getting out hand because people are morons
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I’ll take your opinion on the chin and think you’re just like the others. Life must be full of joy for you lot. Personal insults are usually reserved for those who can’t debate or give reasoning behind their claims.
 
Starkie_1 said:
I’ll take your opinion on the chin and think you’re just like the others. Life must be full of joy for you lot. Personal insults are usually reserved for those who can’t debate or give reasoning behind their claims.
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If you want to, we can have a bit of a wager on what will happen in the upcoming 2-3 months in Europe.

It won't be long until England makes the current situation in Italy look ideal
 
Why is the UK not taking action, except for BoJo being a moron? They're actually making the Norwegian government looking competent by comparison.

I'm glad I don't live in England now, but ffs think of us noggies who rely on the PL to put some meaning into our lives. The way the UK is going about now we won't have United back before 2021 or something.
 
Pagh Wraith said:
A lot of experts have said that the real number of infected people is much higher. Which is obvious when you think about it. This also means that the death rate is much lower in reality. Maybe even not too different from the common flu (that part is speculation). That should not matter though as many deaths will be a function of the medical facilities being overwhelmed which is the really scary thing. That's why the slowing down of the spread should be top priority.
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But the exact same thing surely happens with the regular flu. So I reckon covid being 20x deadlier or whatever the numbers say is about right. Both true figures will be lower than confirmed figures.

This virus is a frightening combination of dangerous and contagious. If it was any more deadly it would probably be easier to contain as people couldn't pass it so easily, like the original SARS. This one spreads so easily and is still deadly enough to kill unthinkable numbers of people if left unchecked. Scary.
 
432JuanMata said:
This. People think Italy is high but most countries are catching up everyday as most countries on the rise. Iran up to 5-6%
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Italy's cases per 1M pop are twice as high as anyone else, why is that? And what makes you think other countries will catch up, as if they are suddenly the new global standard.
 
Withnail said:
It's all well and good doing what you've been told by your bosses.

It was the condescending tone and the boasting about socialising with like minded affluent people which was over the top.

You can hardly not go to with if the Dep of Education says you're open but social distancing is something everyone should be doing regardless of their own current govt's advice. It's a no-brainer really when you look at what's happening to every other country further down the road of this thing.
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I apologise if it’s came across that way. It was meant to show the area and the type of people who are out around here, and I’m sure around most of the country. Again apologies it came across at all boastful.

However, there is NO reason for anyone even the over 70’s to be social distancing at the moment. When the plan is released and they tell people to do it. Do it. Don’t go off what youre reading on forums, social media or other counties who have nothing to do with the UKs best interests
 
Starkie_1 said:
Im head of PE at a very large primary school and myself, and my Pe team who are all self employed, plus the 40-50 staff and 800 + children will be in as normal tomorrow and for the foreseeable future. I’ve just actually had a roast and few drinks in a local pubs alongside a lot of the parents. Luckily we live and work in a very affluent and likeminded area, not mass panic. People doing as they’re told and getting on with it whilst getting on with life too.
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:lol:
 
Starkie_1 said:
You do realise that every country has its own infrastructures, it’s own medical system, it’s own expert advice. You do also realise that, as with all life, sometimes it’s not fair and that others get it much worse. For reasons it takes years and years to understand. My mindset is exactly as it should be, taking it seriously, making sure I minimise all risk to those vulnerable around me and awaiting further instruction into how to live my daily life. I’ll be going into school tomorrow, 2 members of staff down in a team of 5, teaching upto 60 kids at a time their PE and fitness lessons for 6 hours. I’ll also then have to manage my team who look after a large group for their after school clubs, around 100 in a variety of sports. But you tell me I’m the selfish one.
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Life isn't fair. Of course it isn't. But if you have the ability to save others by reducing transmission, how on earth can you justify not taking it?

I've got work tomorrow and as much as I'd like to WFH, I cannot at the moment and will have to go in until further instructions. However, I don't need to socialise at the moment and I want to play my part in one of the most effective methods of controlling this disease - social distancing. I will take whatever self sacrifices are needed to play my part.
 
We just got off the phone with my father-in-law, who is a semi-retired (but still working) radiographer in Lviv, Ukraine. His understanding is that his hospital, the largest in the city, only ordered/received a total of 20 tests for COVID-19 and have no FPP2 or 3 masks for dealing with symptomatic patients. They don’t even have the necessary number of surgical masks for a fresh one for each patient. His ward has been rammed with many times the number of patients he’d ordinarily see.

When you say “feck the economy”, this is what an economy that has been fecked for years can provide for its public health system.
 
Starkie_1 said:
I’ll take your opinion on the chin and think you’re just like the others. Life must be full of joy for you lot. Personal insults are usually reserved for those who can’t debate or give reasoning behind their claims.
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Starkie_1 - "me and my friends are rich and clever, unlike all you toilet paper hoarding hermits"

Also Starkie_1 - claims he's doing everything to reduce the risk of infecting kids.

Everyone else - points out that he's not practicing social distancing.

Starkie_1 again - "omg you sheep why are you resorting to personal insults"
 
UncleBob said:
Sadly you're all morons.
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This is bang on. People can't sacrifice a (very unhealthy to boot) habit while this is going on? This is how the virus has spiralled out of control in the first place, by not giving a shit in terms of social distancing. Thankfully *most* (not all sadly) Noggies seem to grasp the idea.
 
fergieisold said:
Well for now I’m approaching this as flu. Flu is about...do I stop my activity?
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This is orders of magnitude deadlier than flu, and leads to far more people needing intensive care. We have vaccines for flu. We have to change our behaviour before the worst hits or it's going to be very bad.
 
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