SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

I've finally got to the end of this bloody thread, that's an achievement if nothing else. Thank you all for many informative posts.

My company told us on Thursday that everyone in our department is to WFH for at least a month. I wouldn't be surprised if it's the end of Summer before I'm back there, this is absolutely insane. I can't believe people are still going out socialising. Idiots.
 
TrustInOle said:
Out of curiosity, and also aimed at UK residents. What are you doing with your children tomorrow? I am extremely anxious about sending them in. Haven't heard a dime from their school and no one seems to be able to give me any clear advice on the matter.
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He’s going in. I’m up shits creek though, as I’m a single parent and the only person who can have him is my 70-year old mum, who is refusing to go outside because she’s shitscared the virus will be the end of her (and I’m fine with her take on it). I don’t know what I’ll do in the event of a school closure, have to wfh I guess
 
Revan said:
It is sheer insanity. The equivalent of Nazi Germany are gonna win anyway, let’s not fight cause we’ll destroy the economy doing so.
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It's the Conservative ethos manifested as an action plan to my eyes.
 
Starkie_1 said:
Reddit isn’t really the go to save the world kind of advice I’d be listening to
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We should all be like you. People in Italy dying in the hundreds as you seemingly encourage people to live their lives like normal. Life won't be normal once this shit storm is over.
 
Classical Mechanic said:
Regarding testing, if it’s the method that is most effective why are so few countries doing it in anywhere near the South Korean level, is it simply a lack of resources?
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Because at this point the cat is out of the bag. If the goal was to catch cases and quarantine to prevent transmission, testing would be great, which is what S. Korea has successfully done more or less.

Now testing would be a waste of resources given the already wide-spread prevalence. Waste of testing kits, personnell to do, ppe equipment etc.

FYI I am ICU physician in USA.

Maybe a better explanation here.
 
Starkie_1 said:
Im head of PE at a very large primary school and myself, and my Pe team who are all self employed, plus the 40-50 staff and 800 + children will be in as normal tomorrow and for the foreseeable future. I’ve just actually had a roast and few drinks in a local pubs alongside a lot of the parents. Luckily we live and work in a very affluent and likeminded area, not mass panic. People doing as they’re told and getting on with it whilst getting on with life too.
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In the future you will look back on this post feeling awful.
 
Drawfull said:
fecking hell. When do we expect to see the effect of the lock down?
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Sadly, I don’t think you really will, if you are expecting a nice plateau. I think they will end up the same way, which we the UK has already conceded we will.
 
I read something about Harvard estimating that there is about 50x more cases than we actually know about? Is that true?
 
In my urbanizacion in Spain, behind my house there's an apartment block with a communal pool for its residents. I'm not going out to take a pic (I can hear it), but there are approaching dozens of families with their kids around it as if nothing is going on. It boggles the mind.

My local Carrefour had no delivery slots for a week this morning which is unprecedented, and are limiting (with no checks, despite what the site says) online orders to the elderly, those in quarantine or those that are ill, incapacitated whatever. I kinda qualify for the incapacity thing (but felt bad clicking to say as much) and went ahead and ordered some shit - but there was NOTHING that I really needed in stock. No eggs, no pasta, no tinned tomatoes (even ketchup is out of stock) no bread, no meat. Ended buying shitty quality stuff.

End times.
 
Berbaclass said:
I read something about Harvard estimating that there is about 50x more cases than we actually know about? Is that true?
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Is it true they Harvard is estimating that or is their estimate true?
 
Berbaclass said:
I read something about Harvard estimating that there is about 50x more cases than we actually know about? Is that true?
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Almost certainly - a lot of cases are mild so they won't ever be found out about/check out for, and with the 2 week waiting period, there's probably millions who have it and aren't showing it (yet :nervous:).
 
Revan said:
Why are people getting surprised. It is a fecking exponential function, it is supposed to work this way. In less than a week it is gonna be thousands daily deaths.
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I've found repeatedly that majority of peope dont grasp some basic math concepts even if they've had not terrible grades on the subject in school, which has been mostly due to learning how to solve the problems mechanically .
 
Di Maria's angel said:
We should all be like you. People in Italy dying in the hundreds as you seemingly encourage people to live their lives like normal. Life won't be normal once this shit storm is over.
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Don’t live in Italy. Do you? It’s horrible I agree. But it’s happening. Deal with that and start reacting with some sense of reality.

Im encouraging people to listen to the experts and the advice in their own countries. When I am told I cannot work, or go to see family and friends I will listen and do as I’m told. As will everyone I know and their social/family circles. What I won’t do is panic and listen to people on a football Internet forum who think they know better.
 
Conor said:
It's the Conservative ethos manifested as an action plan to my eyes.
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Yes, because the only thing preventing us being in a better place is the same two senior advisors guiding Jeremy Corbyn or any other Labour leader for the past twenty years.
 
TMDaines said:
Sadly, I don’t think you really will, if you are expecting a nice plateau. I think they will end up the same way, which we the UK has already conceded we will.
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Nah there will be, but that doesn't mean hundreds of thousands and millions wont contract it in the UK or Spain for example. The rate of the increase in the graph will change regardless of the actual numbers. All models point to that that I have scene, but in any evevnt the numbers are still pretty terrifying.

The Washington post thing is a good example of how a lockdown - even with wankers moving about or plenty of things still open - works. And that was using a made up virus with a communicability of 100% success rate. I'm certainly not saying 'this is fine', but I do believe that the stuff thats being put in place by all countries, including the UK, will limit this to merely horrific instead of catastrophic. Had my dad crying on the phone this morning, not the best moment of my life.
 
TMDaines said:
Yes, because the only thing preventing us being in a better place is the same two senior advisors guiding Jeremy Corbyn or any other Labour leader for the past twenty years.
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This is exactly the danger of the opinionated posting openly online and on social media. They genuinely have no idea who guiding the nation and making the decisions. They think it’s Boris and his mates
 
Carolina Red said:
@Penna this is the kind of misinformation people around me in the US are spreading now...

“I am at church and the preacher told me that He has friends living in Italy. He said they said the MEDIA over there is hyping this up saying that American has 10s of thousands of deaths . Really”
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It's coming their way, they'll see soon enough. I think it's going to be very hard to impose severe restrictions on people's freedom of movement in many parts of the USA, as they'll simply refuse to comply because of "my rights".
 
Wumminator said:
In the future you will look back on this post feeling awful.
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C’mon cut it out. The last thing this place needs is people on their high horses gliding in and trying to shame people who are actually adhering to the guidance being given.
 
Starkie_1 said:
Im head of PE at a very large primary school and myself, and my Pe team who are all self employed, plus the 40-50 staff and 800 + children will be in as normal tomorrow and for the foreseeable future. I’ve just actually had a roast and few drinks in a local pubs alongside a lot of the parents. Luckily we live and work in a very affluent and likeminded area, not mass panic. People doing as they’re told and getting on with it whilst getting on with life too.
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Revealing.
 
Devil81 said:
Econemy Econemy econemy!!!

I'm fed up of people giving a feck about the econemy!! When my parents are likely fighting for their life does anyone thinking I will be caring about the econemy.

Honestly we can rebuild as a nation once this is over, people worrying about money and the long term effects. If this wipes out a quarter of a million we will be regretting not locking down, shutting up shop and letting this thing pass.

The Government should be looking at ways of holding rental and energy costs. Put bills on hold for 6 months, give everyone a living allowance, ration off food if we have to.

Surely lives are worth more than making sure we come out of this in a stable financial position.
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People always die.

End of the world economy as we know it is something entirely different.
 
In terms of the mortality rate, in order to get through to people they need to start publishing a chart that records the number of patients who have died in need of intensive care.
 
fergieisold said:
there’s no reason at the moment to lock myself away. Nobody ill and nobody knows anybody that is ill. When things escalate that may change.
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Lots of people are currently ill without having any idea that they’re ill. They’re still contagious and spreading the virus around. By the time it escalates it will be too late to contain.
 
mav_9me said:
Because at this point the cat is out of the bag. If the goal was to catch cases and quarantine to prevent transmission, testing would be great, which is what S. Korea has successfully done more or less.

Now testing would be a waste of resources given the already wide-spread prevalence. Waste of testing kits, personnell to do, ppe equipment etc.

FYI I am ICU physician in USA.

Maybe a better explanation here.
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God speed.
What's your thoughts on testing symptomatic now, and especially in vulnerable populations like nursing homes?
 
DiseaseOfTheAge said:
Revealing.
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Why? I’m self employed, part of my business and those working for me relies on schools staying open. Half my family Are self employed and are now without work for the next few months because of The current situation escalating. The area we live and the people around us, young families with well paid jobs (lists of freelance/self employed) have likeminded views. It’s a labour strong hold yet everyone seems to be agreeing this is correct way to deal with.

But you go ahead generalising.
 
Drawfull said:
Nah there will be, but that doesn't mean hundreds of thousands and millions wont contract it in the UK or Spain for example. The rate of the increase in the graph will change regardless of the actual numbers. All models point to that that I have scene, but in any evevnt the numbers are still pretty terrifying.

The Washington post thing is a good example of how a lockdown - even with wankers moving about or plenty of things still open - works. And that was using a made up virus with a communicability of 100% success rate. I'm certainly not saying 'this is fine', but I do believe that the stuff thats being put in place by all countries, including the UK, will limit this to merely horrific instead of catastrophic. Had my dad crying on the phone this morning, not the best moment of my life.
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I mean it will plateau eventually, the virus will eventually run out of hosts. But in countries that have gone too far, expecting a lockdown to just bring about that immediate plateau and stop the virus in its tracks is naive. You are still going to have exponential growth after a lockdown, unless you hold it until the last possible moment.

Anyone who was hoping to look at Italy in the next few days and see a miracle is going to be disappointed. The virus is everywhere and there are still too many possible hosts first.
 
Sweet Square said:


granted Wuhan is a city but I don't anyone was expecting this at the start of the outbreak.
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Except those that were expecting it. Like pretty much every expert. But what do they know?

Wuhan started lockdown at 400 cases, while doing more testing than Italy. Italy started the lockdown on a few thousand cases. Of course it it gonna be worse than in Wuhan, heck it is very likely that Italy is gonna reach the point (in the next week or two) that in a single day there are gonna be more deaths than accumulated deaths in Wuhan.

And it is gonna be soon in UK, and US and all the other stupid countries that are not taking this seriously. While China, South Korea, Japan, Singapore, Israel are gonna be fine cause they don’t have morons in charge.
 
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