SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

dove said:
I hear this line constantly and now I am genuinely curious, do all people in UK who have children stop working when schools close for holidays? Why is it that UK is the only country in the universe that can't cope with school closure for a few weeks? I don't want to hear anything about corona etc., I am just curious why is this issue is quite specific to UK only.
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They go on holiday with mum/dad. They stay with grandparents. They go to daycare. The older ones hang round shopping centres with their mates. Those things don't really help in terms of isolating them from infection or from being the ones who spread it to more vulnerable people.

There will come a point where schools close, because teachers will get the virus, or will themselves decide to self-isolate. It will also happen because at some point too many kids may be absent either because of symptoms, or because their parents choose, in effect stopping the educational function of the school and no longer offering any advantage. Emotion and public opinion will play a role of course, science is one thing, but people may want it to happen sooner than the mathematical models say.
 
JPRouve said:
The goal is to treat people that absolutely need it, not get accurate data/numbers. In most countries If you start wide testing, you spread the means when the vast majority of people don't need any medical attention.
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I would have thought to help with the treatment you need to know the actual number of cases, if it's rising more, more action will be needed to prepare on what to do, like the need of more equipment and staff. Don't they go hand in hand?
 
sullydnl said:
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It definitely won’t be crude mortality rates. That isn’t any basis for comparison with different segments of populations are affected in different countries. You will need to standardise the mortality rate, which requires a lot more data.

Edit: affected/effected.
 
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Fooza said:
This question needs to be answered and explained, it makes no sense to stop testing the public and only test those who are in hospital, how will they get accurate data/numbers.
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They're relying on statistical analysis - random testing according to a population profile in other words.
 
I'd rather doctors and nurses concentrated on helping the people who are ill enough to be hospitalised, rather than spending time testing everyone who starts to present symptoms.

Incomplete data is less important than providing medical care.
 
TMDaines said:
It definitely won’t be crude mortality rates. That isn’t any basis for comparison with different segments of populations are effected in different countries. You will need to standardise the mortality rate, which requires a lot more data.
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Yep, tbf he retweeted someone just after that making the same point.
 
Ive tried to read every post but I may (probably) have missed it. In the UK approach, if an individual becomes symptomati in a high risk environment, say in an old people's home or immunocompromised hospital wing, what is the proposed course of action? @Dante I think you seem to have the most knowledge of the UK approach.
 
Nogbadthebad said:
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Which is why I think the idea of deliberately throwing 80% of available data away is outright idiocy.

The more data the better. That is not my opinion, that is the WHO. We are not even tracking where the disease is, because we are actively telling people who have it not to inform anyone.

If you are a paid statistician and defend that then all I can say is wow.
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Dante said:
@TMDaines

:lol:

Don't bother responding to him, mate.
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TMDaines said:
You can’t hope to win with some. It’s more others that are on the fence or are willing to have a sensible discussion with a different perspective, that you hope to engage with. He just went way too far.
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sullydnl said:
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Well woop de doo you pair of condescending twats.

As I said, ignoring 90% of cases is not a good way to proceed, the WHO stress how important testing is.
 
Smores said:
Can you provide a link to the model?
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On Thursday, Whitty and Vallance in their presentations said they believe the number of cases was already 5000-10000, when I think we still only had 300-odd positive tests.

That still puts us on the flat bit at the bottom of the curve before it even begins to ramp up, by the way. That was the most important info from Thursday.
 
Dante said:
Their policies are not sustainable. And the UK would never be able to implement them anyway.
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How are they not sustainable? If the borders stay closed , or every traveller gets quarantined, it absolutely is. Not to mention, the testing will become more automatic and robust . They have contained the clusters within their borders.
 
Fooza said:
I would have thought to help with the treatment you need to know the actual number of cases, if it's rising more, more action will be needed to prepare on what to do, like need more equipment and staff. Don't they go hand in hand?
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No, for the treatment you need to study the actual virus, they don't need the exact number of cases, the same way they don't need the number of people with the flu. And they are not going to get more staff, we are not going to find new doctors and nurses in the next weeks. If there is a an efficient and easy way to test everyone, they will, the korean drive thrus are a good idea but if you look at other testing points, people are in line next to each others and you may question the safety of the process when the majority of people won't have issues with the virus.

Now, I do think that the US could implement it, with the amount of people with access to a car, they could do large drive thru testings, in France I don't think that it's possible, in the UK I don't know.
 
So my girlfriend is a nurse in Manchester and was working with a patient last week who subsequently ended up testing positive. in this period (before she found out her patient had tested positive) she travelled to my flat in London. Obviously this was a large cause of concern for us both. Anyway roll on a few days and she is told by her hospital (against the advice of 111 to come back into work this weekend, so of course she did. So it's been nearly a week since she first had contact with this positive patient and she doesn't seem to have picked up any symptoms. I on the other hand now have a cough and a really sore throat (nothing else symptom wise).

Do people think this could be a weird coincidence and I've just picked up a cold or could I have Corona Virus in a mild form? I worked at home Thursday - Friday last week but I'm feeling pressure to turn into work tomorrow. It's so frustrating not being able to get tested etc to find out if you have it. Can't even get my hands on a temperature gauge as they have already been cleared out of stores.
 
senorgregster said:
Ive tried to read every post but I may (probably) have missed it. In the UK approach, if an individual becomes symptomati in a high risk environment, say in an old people's home or immunocompromised hospital wing, what is the proposed course of action? @Dante I think you seem to have the most knowledge of the UK approach.
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I don't know, mate.

That'll be decided by the NHS policy on such things. I don't think they've been published it n the same way that they have done their public guidance.

Isolation for over 70s has been proposed this morning, so I'd imagine something along those line.
 
I'm not sure that a lot of the hysterical posts on here, probably by people who are not experts in this, are helping.
 
TrustInJanuzaj said:
So my girlfriend is a nurse in Manchester and was working with a patient last week who subsequently ended up testing positive. in this period (before she found out her patient had tested positive) she travelled to my flat in London. Obviously this was a large cause of concern for us both. Anyway roll on a few days and she is told by her hospital (against the advice of 111 to come back into work this weekend, so of course she did. So it's been nearly a week since she first had contact with this positive patient and she doesn't seem to have picked up any symptoms. I on the other hand now have a cough and a really sore throat (nothing else symptom wise).

Do people think this could be a weird coincidence and I've just picked up a cold or could I have Corona Virus in a mild form? I worked at home Thursday - Friday last week but I'm feeling pressure to turn into work tomorrow. It's so frustrating not being able to get tested etc to find out if you have it. Can't even get my hands on a temperature gauge as they have already been cleared out of stores.
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Here is the problem you’re right. I’d assume you have it tbh it’s safer that way.
 
TrustInJanuzaj said:
So my girlfriend is a nurse in Manchester and was working with a patient last week who subsequently ended up testing positive. in this period (before she found out her patient had tested positive) she travelled to my flat in London. Obviously this was a large cause of concern for us both. Anyway roll on a few days and she is told by her hospital (against the advice of 111 to come back into work this weekend, so of course she did. So it's been nearly a week since she first had contact with this positive patient and she doesn't seem to have picked up any symptoms. I on the other hand now have a cough and a really sore throat (nothing else symptom wise).

Do people think this could be a weird coincidence and I've just picked up a cold or could I have Corona Virus in a mild form? I worked at home Thursday - Friday last week but I'm feeling pressure to turn into work tomorrow. It's so frustrating not being able to get tested etc to find out if you have it. Can't even get my hands on a temperature gauge as they have already been cleared out of stores.
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If it's lasted more than half a day, the current advice is to self-isolate for 7 days.
Sparky Rhiwabon said:
I'm not sure that a lot of the hysterical posts on here, probably by people who are not experts in this, are helping.
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Agree.
 
The Firestarter said:
How are they not sustainable? If the borders stay closed , or every traveller gets quarantined, it absolutely is. Not to mention, the testing will become more automatic and robust . They have contained the clusters within their borders.
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When do they open their borders? Or do they keep their disease monitoring up forever?
 
Fooza said:
I would have thought to help with the treatment you need to know the actual number of cases, if it's rising more, more action will be needed to prepare on what to do, like the need of more equipment and staff. Don't they go hand in hand?
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The “numbers” are only the numbers that have been tested and found positive. There could be one more or millions more cases in the untested portion of any given countries population. You can’t even rationally scale up tested figures as only high probability cases are subject to testing. Scientists deal in facts. The best thing for them to do is work on affected cases.
 
Grinner said:
I've told her that you might not care about dying but if you get sick and I have to take you to hospital then you might take a bed from somebody who does care about dying.

oh and I'm 50 ya cnut!
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I've told my mum same thing; If you don't care about dying think of other people.

Well you're old enough to be my dad... that's nice to know. :p
 
Dante said:
When do they open their borders? Or do they keep their disease monitoring up forever?
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Well obviously the will.keep the monitoring until the disease has reduced sufficiently globally. Of course it may be months even a year. It is absolutely the right thing to do, first responsibility of a country is to ensure safety of its people.
 
SqueakyWeasel said:
The “numbers” are only the numbers that have been tested and found positive. There could be one more or millions more cases in the untested portion of any given countries population. You can’t even rationally scale up tested figures as only high probability cases are subject to testing. Scientists deal in facts. The best thing for them to do is work on affected cases.
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Exactly, South Korea has a population of 51m people and tested around 200k. They are a long way from testing everyone, it will take months during which people that have been tested could get it from someone that hasn't yet.
 
Sparky Rhiwabon said:
I'm not sure that a lot of the hysterical posts on here, probably by people who are not experts in this, are helping.
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I don't think it's good for your mental health in general to get too invested in this. Constantly obsessing over the numbers, reading articles and getting worked up about things out of your control will not be a sustainable approach considering this is going to last for months.

And stress/anxiety doesn't help your immune system either.
 
Haven't we been misguided by the government wholly?

If people have died who are not in the high risk groups. Even catching this and giving it to someone is dangerous enough.

My brother seems to not give a feck he's still going out and about. My mums just gone to church. I've just messaged both to tell them to come home.

I'm just trying to be cautious.
 
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