The governments assumption is the spread of this can’t be stopped, it can only be managed. Herd immunity is something you get anyway, in that scenario. It doesn’t need to be a goal, but it’s an effect.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
On what basis is anybody guaranteeing that herd immunity will occur?
Focus on the second one. It's yer man who bought 17,000 bottles. Karma.
"Our aim is to try and... build up some kind of herd immunity"
Regulus' reading of the quote
Regulus' reading of the quote
Why have large public gatherings and football matches been banned?
I think you’ll see a big voluntary and community effort, which is probably being planned behind the scenes now. Wouldn’t at all be surprised if you see Uber Eats and Deliveroo infrastructures used.
If you watch the Sky News interview he talks about building up herd immunity in a future tense and it is only part of the strategy, actually as a by-product of the other measures. Banning of public events and complete shutdowns are part of the plan also. The key disagreement is how soon to implement all the closures etc. The UK plan doesn't favour early shutdowns, travel bans etc because they perceive them of having limited efficacy and because you are going to have to open up again some time soon and the virus will explode again. Multiple shutdowns will have grave social and economic effects and cause mass suffering in and of themselves.
I'm not saying the UK approach is correct because I am just an ordinary citizen at the end of the day. The WHO approach will be optimal if a vaccine or better treatment can be found in short time but if those things do not happen it may turn out to be the wrong approach.
UK car manufacturers and weapons suppliers are to be told to change their manufacturing to produce ventilators.
Simple. Why didn't we think of that before....
It should only take a few years before they start producing them.
Honestly. Car manufacturers are used to producing parts by the hundreds of thousands or millions.
How many ventilators will be needed.
Remember. If you need a ventilator, you will need a bed in a hospital.
Of course. That is where Boris promise of 40 new hospitals will happen.
Simple. Why didn't we think of that before....
It should only take a few years before they start producing them.
Honestly. Car manufacturers are used to producing parts by the hundreds of thousands or millions.
How many ventilators will be needed.
Remember. If you need a ventilator, you will need a bed in a hospital.
Of course. That is where Boris promise of 40 new hospitals will happen.
No-one is, but it's likely as we know how viruses work.
But it's inevitable at this stage that we're heading towards a large majority of the population contracting it.
I'm supposed to have a job interview on Wednesday down in Reading. If it still goes ahead I'll be travelling down to London on Tuesday, staying there for the night and then going into Reading on the Wednesday and back. The process says that they reimburse travel expenses so I should just book my travel down but I really don't feel like travelling at the moment because of all the uncertainties. I asked on Friday if they can make it a Skype interview and they got back telling me that they couldn't contact the recruiting manager so needed to wait until Monday (tomorrow) to see if that was fine. I hope that it is. I'll travel down if I really need to as it would be a fantastic job to have right now but yeah.
That's my main issue with the stance that the UK is taking right now. At least with a lockdown you have clear rules. What we are doing though is just causing panic amongst everyone in different ways and it's difficult to not get caught up in that.
That's my main issue with the stance that the UK is taking right now. At least with a lockdown you have clear rules. What we are doing though is just causing panic amongst everyone in different ways and it's difficult to not get caught up in that.
While I get the UK's approach when it comes to not go too fast into a "lockdown". I'm not sure if they took into account the fact that the UK has a higher population density than most continental countries, it's one of the countries where things could get totally wrong in relatively small areas like Greater London. I could be wrong but looking at the french infection maps, it seems that there is a corrolation between density and the amount of infected people in an area.
You're a clever bloke JP, re-read that.
I'd imagine their models know full well how densely populated the UK is.The UK explicitly isn't following WHO recommendations. In fact I'm not even sure it has claimed to be doing so.
For one example, the WHO has repeatedly said countries need an aggressive approach to testing:
"Find, isolate, test and treat every case, to break the chains of transmission. Every case we find and treat limits the expansion of the disease"
Whereas the UK have said such testing is not necessary:
"It is no longer necessary for us to identify every case and we will move from having testing mainly done in homes and outpatients and walk-in centres, to a situation where people who are remaining at home do not need testing".
That's a huge fundamental difference on one of the WHO's key pillars on tackling the pandemic, which itself immediately impacts on another of their key pillars, contact tracing.
My God, no-one is doing this now man!! It's way past that stage!
That was phase one, and the UK did that at phase one.
Why are you highlighting the bold and ignoring the rest? People are acting as if the government is actively trying to infect people as widely and as quickly as possible. Herd immunity is a by product of the inevitable outcome. Of course the effects that brings about should be taken into account of the strategy.
But people seem to be contracting it again after having had it once, so unless somebody has a vaccine I’m not aware of then any talk of herd immunity being “inevitable” as you put it is very ostrich like.
Aussies following our approach on schools and herd immunity:
However, it's all good and dandy, until they say students should social distance at school and stay 1.5 metres apart
link
However, it's all good and dandy, until they say students should social distance at school and stay 1.5 metres apart
There so many conflicting statements made by senior officials you just don't know who to believe, it's like they have no idea themselves what is the actual plan. UK gov seriously needs to improve their communication because currently it just creates more uncertainty and chaos.
He's completely ignored all the important parts of that passage and concentrated on the bold, twisting it into believing what you've posted above, that the UK is in some way rying to infect people as widely and as quickly as possible, which isn't what he said at all.
That's the end result for every country. It's a scientific reality, not a policy that can decided on in any way.
You're a clever bloke JP, re-read that.
That's why I think that what I have read and heard is utterly stupid. I'm giving zero credits to their intelligence but maybe I'm totally wrong.
This is my theory as to why Spain has such an explosion of cases and its growing faster than anybody else in Europe. Their outbreak occurred in the middle of Madrid. In Italy it started in some random rural towns.
How many confirmed cases of this Rado?
The real problem with herd immunity is that we have no evidence yet that immunity can definitely be achieved.
https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20200315_13/
https://www.latimes.com/world-natio...n-korea-coronavirus-reinfection-test-positive
https://www.independent.co.uk/life-...id-19-twice-sick-spread-relapse-a9400691.html
This article suggests that's just down to bad testing though:
https://thehill.com/changing-americ...on-cures/487436-can-you-get-coronavirus-twice
If this is the case, then "herd immunity" is going to be nearly impossible as a percentage of people could always get reinfected. This would mean the governments current plan of action would eventually result in almost 100% of people getting infected at some point and with the mortality rate high that would have absolutely devastating consequences.
https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20200315_13/
https://www.latimes.com/world-natio...n-korea-coronavirus-reinfection-test-positive
https://www.independent.co.uk/life-...id-19-twice-sick-spread-relapse-a9400691.html
This article suggests that's just down to bad testing though:
https://thehill.com/changing-americ...on-cures/487436-can-you-get-coronavirus-twice
If this is the case, then "herd immunity" is going to be nearly impossible as a percentage of people could always get reinfected. This would mean the governments current plan of action would eventually result in almost 100% of people getting infected at some point and with the mortality rate high that would have absolutely devastating consequences.
Yeah, that's fair explanation, but I think they are giving different explanations every day, so IMO they definitely aren't clear on their plan yet.
Also, I am not even saying UK's approach is wrong, maybe it's better than rest of the Europe, I guess we will know in few months, but I just question whether their plan is consistent and if they are actually aware what they are doing. For me it looks like they don't.
Also, he quite obviously says herd immunity is the key of that plan from the Guardian link.
Incredible, right?
You two are incredible.
We've already said, a large portion of the population will contract it. That isn't the UK's aim, it's an inevitability.
The only way to prevent that now is to find a time machine.
Good luck with that mate!
Since the advent of the 24/7 news-cycle , the Press, TV and Radio broadcasts in particular have something like 70% of their content presenting opinion, rather than actual reporting of news.
Comments like "its now over to our political editor/features editor, etc. to explain whats going on (or they should add what they think is going on!) are commonplace. The impression given is that because the person reporting is standing outside a building or overlooking a particular scene that they have all the insight... usually from unnamed sources!
Donald Trump has lots of problems and presents lots of problems, but he nailed that one with his 'Fake news'.
From that article:
"Scientists in and outside China agree that reinfection is a highly unlikely explanation for the patients who retest positive. They say testing errors are more likely to blame —
either false negatives that resulted in patients being discharged too early, or false positives when they retested and were taken back into hospital."
Sometimes it pays to continue reading.
That quote from the WHO calling for more aggressive testing and contact tracing is from Friday, after the UK had announced that such testing was no longer necessary. There has been absolutely zero suggestion from the WHO that testing or contact tracing should lessen in phase two.
Also Ireland, who are following WHO recommendations, are increasing both testing and contact tracing in phase two.
The idea that the UK's approach isn't at odds with the WHO's is straightforward factually incorrect.
Almost amusing given your repetitive “they’re not going for herd immunity” nonsense when the government are repeatedly saying they are.
However the main point remains that we don’t know if immunity is achievable so trying to rely on it is monumentally stupid.
Yes true.
Fecking hell.
Should they be at home social distancing 1.5 metres apart?Aussies following our approach on schools and herd immunity:
link
However, it's all good and dandy, until they say students should social distance at school and stay 1.5 metres apart
Because the advice by the government is particularly vague.
It says you should seriously consider it going, but not as far as saying don’t go.
Morocco have also stopped flights to 25 countries I believe, not including the UK, yet. So I wanted to see what happens if things suddenly close down on their end and to take some advice.
It hung up after two hours anyway.
Since I have seen people mention France several times, the approach(at least in Occitanie) may be questioned but it makes sense. Basically, the ER and virologist decided that at this point due to the lack of specific symptoms, it was best to focus on people at risk and people with severe symptoms instead of spreading themselves and widely test people in conditions that could actually spread the contagion, people with mild symptoms of cold or maybe Coronavirus should stay at home and show common sense, they are supposed to call the 15 and a doctor will do a remote consultation, while hospitals and virologist try to find a cure and take care of severe cases. The goal is basically to slowdown the spread and give themselves time to deal with the influx of patients and research.
It's clearly not a perfect plan but it makes sense.
It's clearly not a perfect plan but it makes sense.
Yea the only thing i can conclude is that the vast majority of people are dumb.
I was trying to tell my own parents own are renovating their house just to hold off for a month at the least and see if things get better. No, business as usual.
Irish Independent saying today that they expect 50,000 people to be critical in the next two weeks in Ireland. And we only have about 300 ICU beds.
The only correct thing to do is an immediate shut-down of public life for a few weeks.
I am glad that our politicians in Austria got this right.
Too late maybe but at least they now took the respective decisions.
I am glad that our politicians in Austria got this right.
Too late maybe but at least they now took the respective decisions.