SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
I wonder at what number deaths become bad for the economy.
This is what I am struggling with, the UK government must know something we don’t?
Depends who is doing the dying.
When did the 2 million die? I’ve not seen anything like that in the news?
That's not the point, the point is by saying they need to social distance at school and be 1.5 metres goes to show are they are so out of touch of reality, that's simply never going to happen in schools, so why bother saying it.
I don't want to get into the whole discussion of whether schools close or not - just that MP's don't say utter nonsense.
Re: herd immunity. As the models shown on the Washington Times indicate, herd immunity is a by product of whatever measures we take:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/
Large amounts of the population are going to get infected and once they have recovered, the virus will find it more difficult to find new hosts. That’s inevitable at this point. No major Western Europe country is not going to experience this phenomenon.
That doesn’t mean doing nothing and just waiting for herd immunity is optimum, and the UK is absolutely not doing that.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/
Large amounts of the population are going to get infected and once they have recovered, the virus will find it more difficult to find new hosts. That’s inevitable at this point. No major Western Europe country is not going to experience this phenomenon.
That doesn’t mean doing nothing and just waiting for herd immunity is optimum, and the UK is absolutely not doing that.
Every country is going for herd immunity.
This is one of the architects of the UK strategy on how it is being misrepresented.
Old people have stopped contributing to the economy through taxes and probably cost the state more than they now contribute. However, older people typically tend to vote Conservative. Its a really risky strategy, if it goes wrong the Tories will need to make people forget they let the old die.
The coronavirus has pushed us into a swimming pool.
Other nations are trying to stop the water from getting all their clothes wet. The UK has accepted that the water will get through and is focusing on how it will swim to other side in order to get out.
If we try to get out straight away, we'll keep getting pushed back in.
Other nations are trying to stop the water from getting all their clothes wet. The UK has accepted that the water will get through and is focusing on how it will swim to other side in order to get out.
If we try to get out straight away, we'll keep getting pushed back in.
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They're not so much relying on it as treating ubiquitous contagion as a given. If that confers immunity for some period of time so much the better. Since it's perceived as inevitable they see themselves as having little choice in the matter whether it confers immunity or not. The only thing left to do is smooth the path as best they can.
Asda and Costco at Trafford Centre is bizarre. Massive queues out of car park, but car parks empty. Supermarket seems pretty well stocked on whole, so it seems people are driving round in search for the goods that there have been a run on.
We’re just here for newborn clothes and supplies in case lockdown happens in the next few weeks or their supply chain breaks.
We’re just here for newborn clothes and supplies in case lockdown happens in the next few weeks or their supply chain breaks.
Neither does my and my mum is 51 in a couple of weeks. She's so flippant about it, I find very annoying. She's not taking this seriously. At all.
Which is broadly in line with what the UK has been doing. Weird of Macron to hold the elections though given where you're at. They'll probably be as good as illegitimate because many won't turn out.
So they should shut schools and stay at home with parents, who need to stop working to look after them. Or with grandparents if the parents can't leave work.
75-80% of infections in China was spread in the home rather than at schools or public places (they know this through contact tracing).
The containment phase is over. The virus is already out there and the chances are that you will get it. The current phase is 'Delay', which means minimising the situations in which the virus spreads most quickly. Statistically, that's in the home. Schools are relatively safe by comparison.
Indeed. The idea that the Tories are going to let the vulnerable die just doesn't hold up to any scrutiny because it's their base that is most at risk.
Nothing worse when you LARPing and shes just over in the corner laughing her ass off when your wearing a mask trying not to die
With the small difference that the herd immunity part isn't in the equation because it's not a thing at the moment, the virus is allegedly evolving and it may not be the exact same strain that is circulating in different parts of Europe and Asia. Regarding the elections it's a bit weird indeed particularly when in my opinion they are not essential, we could delay them.
I've told her that you might not care about dying but if you get sick and I have to take you to hospital then you might take a bed from somebody who does care about dying.
oh and I'm 50 ya cnut!
Others countries are trying to limit the spread. The UK is not.
I hear this line constantly and now I am genuinely curious, do all people in UK who have children stop working when schools close for holidays? Why is it that UK is the only country in the universe that can't cope with school closure for a few weeks? I don't want to hear anything about corona etc., I am just curious why is this issue is quite specific to UK only.
Do you know how many cases there were in Wuhan before they began the lockdown? That might go some way to explaining those figures.
That's going to happen regardless, it's just matter of when. With Scotland and NI saying they are going to shut schools for 13-16 weeks when it does happen, but okay.
But again, I'll say again I don't want to go in the whole whether schools should be closed or open. That's already been decided and it's pointless discussion now - if you're pro-immunity herd or pro-quarantine like most European counties.
I said - to advice schools that students should social distance within schools of 1.5 metres is the most ludicrous thing to say and it will never happen. That to me shows the MP is so of touch of reality.
It's not that they are going to let them die but they won't control over the situation if many old people get infected.
Maybe the tory strategy is the optimal strategy but it's so dependent on things going the way they need them to.
They either pass their kids on to grandparents or send them to clubs where they congregate with other kids. Either option would defeat the purpose of closing schools to slow down spread.
I suspect more 1 week and the situation in Portugal will become critical. 2 weeks on the same trend will be chaos.
That's not true at all. The UK is trying to limit the spread, it just doesn't favour measures with limited efficacy that have great social and economic consequences. 75-80% of infections in China are thought to have been transmitted in the home. You want to keep schools open as long as possible because disrupting pupils doing exams can have serious consequences for their future development and prospects, for example. I'd recommend watching this documentary on iplayer
Their study found that washing hands 5 - 10 more times a day can reduce overall spread significantly and slow it significantly too. Measures like that and social distances are going to be far more effective than closing schools etc.
This question needs to be answered and explained, it makes no sense to stop testing the public and only test those who are in hospital, how will they get accurate data/numbers.
I think the answer is simply that we don't have the capacity. It's the biggest failure that's been highlighted in all this.
One could argue that given the government's plan would involve more cases prior to the peak period than other plans do, it might suit them not to have a high degree of testing. Or maybe that's just needless cynicism on my part.
The goal is to treat people that absolutely need it, not get accurate data/numbers. In most countries If you start wide testing, you spread the means when the vast majority of people don't need any medical attention.
Unless you think all triage doctors and nurses are paid up Conservatives, it won’t be them making the decision. The health system will inevitably be overwhelmed at some point. The strategy is to minimise the number of people who suffer from that. Triage at this time will focus on efficiency and not sentimentality. Those to be treated will be prioritised based on effort required, chance of survival, age, number of dependents, value to society etc. That will contribute to the mortality rate in the elderly.
It’s already happened in Italy already. Below is an essential read.
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/03...us-cautionary-tale-italy-dont-do-what-we-did/
That’s going to be utterly soul destorying.
What’s the prognosis for America in all of this? I’ve obviously been reading a few articles and listening to what some experts predict to happen, but i’ve been mainly concentrating on the UK side of things. I read an article in the NYT and they gave a pretty grim outcome, but it was worse case scenario. They said up to 160/ 214 million people could be infected over a period of months, resulting in 200,000 to 1.7 million deaths. I’m not sure how true this is, though. They do say it is the worst case scenario, but is this close to being true?
These numbers seem huge, but perhaps they’re not and this is genuinely something that could happen. When you factor in their seemingly bungled response to it and take into consideration their health care system, them maybe this is true.
These numbers seem huge, but perhaps they’re not and this is genuinely something that could happen. When you factor in their seemingly bungled response to it and take into consideration their health care system, them maybe this is true.