Brexit, Iran
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
WW3 when the Iranian general got fecked? Australian wildfires?
Ole is/was a fraud.
but they are statistics just as we younger people are. Unfortunately they are on the wrong end.
calm the feck down. Fatality rate is likely to be below 0.5 % overall.
re exposed to high levels when immunity not built
China is doing it, and their entire economy is production based. This could be easily the equivalent of WW2, I think we can sustain some economic hardships.
Which ones the correct one?
2) And how does the system will be able to cope if 45 million people get infected this year? Model it in any distribution you might think of, it is literally impossible for it to happen.
Which is why the mortality rate will be higher.
Have you seen the poverty in China?
That's kinda what's confusing me about their approach too.
The countries who are attempting to minimize the spread of the disease as much as possible face a real risk of being overwhelmed. So how does a country which isn't attempting to minimize the spread of the disease to the same degree avoid being overwhelmed?
If you calculate the fatality rate by means of the amount dead and the total confirmed infected cases, you are using a very flawed assumption that the government knows of every infected case. The infected portion of the population that doesn't get severe symptoms or is completely asymptomatic to the infection will never be in that known cases amount the government is reporting.
Well I think scientists are expecting this disease to become endemic but by then we will have a vaccine and antibodies from being naturally exposed to it.
I'm fearing the CFR will be higher in UK. I think Italy has more ICU beds than UK and CFR is 5.4% of the known cases.
I think it would be actually better for the virus to mutate into something more deadly paradoxically as it doesn't have the ability to transmit as a low mortality rate strain. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong on that.
And from what I read there is not enough data to know if it causes any permanent damage to the immune system or lungs etc.
Anyway I'm sure someone like @berbatrick @Pogue Mahone or @Arruda can answer in greater detail and much more eloquently.
Irish government has created a field hospital in a football stadium in Dublin. Surprisingly proactive.
I'm not a doctor but this seems obvious to me. I can't see how other people can't see it.
There is none.
In general yes, they should mutate to less deadly versions. In general, also a reinfection should be just a mild version of the sickness.
But it is not always the case. The second wave of Spanish flu was more deadly than the first one. The second time someone gets infected from the dengue fever, it is much worse than the first time.
So my point is, we do not know. It might be that this will have a low mutation rate and even when it mutates it will be less deadly so good news. There is some chance though that it might get worse. So, why some think that the most brutal scenario is the best one, when we know so little of it.
Good luck for your flight! I am half tempted to leave my job in the US and return to Europe. Scared that when the economy goes down, I might suddenly be without a job, a house, and an insurance, in a foreign country, with flights to Europe being banned.
It's a totalitarian regime and they've been doing it 2 months! Do you think that they'll care if the poorer citizens are starving to death in a longer term scenario or do you think they'll just dispose of the bodies on the quiet? WW2 featured massive crimes by the state on their own people, Enigma, for example. You're basically advocating for the same, if not worse, than the British approach to this virus with that comment through sacrificial lambs.
Where is this? I don't see anything mentioned on twitter.
And we should take the poverty option if it saves tens of millions of lives worldwide.
And the worst part is that you are already busy, you already have patients in critical conditions that needs your attention and there will be people that will be in critical conditions for reasons none related to Covid-19. It's not simply illogical, it's just staggeringly stupid.
You also don't know the final amount of dead. Both the numerator and denominator are variable.
In german paper its been reported that Iran made something like 7,5mio tests in the past few days and the result was 175,000 positive on Corona.
To be fair, I checked myself and his company does at least produce computer models on spreads of diseases. It's not like they pulled a random person from the street to talk about it. He's therefore got a pretty decent idea no doubt having constructed several different models on how it could (the models could easily be wrong) spread. I.E. He's played a feck ton of Pandemic the board game.
The former more than the latter. The flu actually kills more people per year than folks realize. It's just that we usually have a good vaccine against it. COVID 19 is a novel virus with no vaccine against it = more infectious.
Would you be buying from a supermarket if you needed it for a business though? Seems like you'd have such a low profit margin on it.
I know that. At the same time, there are many cases which yet we do not know their epilogue, so the number of deaths might increase. There are ways of having better estimates, it looks like in Italy and Iran (overwhelmed but still functional medical system) it is converging around 4%. That is very bad.
Imagine the numbers with a totally non functioning medical system (which is gonna happe
Have you seen the prices on eBay?
Only villains or ignorants can possibly think there is any logic in that.
The UK, USA & Iran. 3 countries ran by shithouses, all headed for the same fate.
All these people banging on about “more people die of the common cold/flu” seem to be completely ignoring the rate of deaths and the speed of the spread which are the concerning things.
Which is why I don't get this thing about time. Surely the earlier the better. I understand that people may not want to hold curfews and will break quarantine but Italy so far is doing fairly well in that sence. Surely every proactive step is a right one? I can understand holding schools off as long as possible and essential services but letting the country just crack on as normal is quite frankly bizarre in my opinion. If not for CHO and Arteta Arteta we'd still have fixtures with hundreds of thousands attendees at games. I can't wrap my head around it. Especially after every other country in Europe is taking a different approach. This Sir Patrick Vallance is either an absolute genius or he will literally e hung drawn and quartered when this all over.
Problem here is he's filling in the blanks to what he thinks might be going on, would be good to get clear info from the Tories and stop the rampant speculation. I expect UK will follow suit with Spain and France when we get to those numbers thereabouts. The herd immunity will take out so many older people and those with comprised health of all ages and would need very specific instructions and secondary help that isn't there for those people to stay away from the healthy majority while they get infected. Too many won't be responsible enough or dedicated enough. NHS would be quickly overwhelmed. This would also need a quick turnaround of the healthy getting infected and recovering.
Should other countries get passed this with 3000 dead like China and UK has substantially more I think public hanging and stoning would be brought back for the whole party.
Feel like sending my mum to Hubei for 3 months, probably the safest place right now.
Per 100k there are 6.6 icu beds in UK, though not sure how they're spread? Couple that with 80-90% already been in use I would bet?
Around double that in Italy and 29.2 in Germany
the NHS is fecking struggling as it is.
I'm personally thinking something akin to Lombardy will happen in the UK, Like Cheltenham suddenly gets a surge of cases or Liverpool or Cornwall and completely overwhelms the local system.
I think with this strategy, doubld the resources still royally fecked. The thing people seem to forget is the NHS is severely understaffed and resourced as it is and every other problem still needs to be dealt with. That isn't put on hold:/ A system with cracks breaking through the seams has to now deal with a pandemic, with a government taking a massive fecking gamble when countries that are coping with this have gone completely different ways.
There is no evidence to suggest this builds immunity
There is no way the UK is prepared for this.
The best gauge we're gonna get in the short term for the death rate in a fully functional advanced healthcare system is from the Diamond Princess.
We just don't care. Drink, drink, drink. We need drink and "da craic".
Ive come to the conclusion that young irish people dont give a feck about the elderly or people at risk in general.
They simply do not care and history will not look kindly on them.
Rather feck off down the pub. All about the pints and craic, ah itll be grand.
Edit same as above
They simply do not care and history will not look kindly on them.
Rather feck off down the pub. All about the pints and craic, ah itll be grand.
Edit same as above
at this point in time, neither. Too extreme both of them