SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Di Maria's angel said:
The only thing that will wake this country up is when we inevitably follow in Italy's path. Once an absurd amount of people start dying, those toilet rolls will come in use as those who don't fear this virus will also be the first to shit themselves. How on earth did we let this escalate to this point in 2 fecking months?
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I can’t quite work out if you’re on a huge wind up, some kind of cartoon character or genuinely the most negative person on the planet?
 
Another question regarding the different strategies:

Accepting that the WHO strategy would likely see a second peak once tough measures are lifted, how hard would it be to control the rate of infection at that point through a gradual easing of measures?

As opposed to the UK's approach of trying to manage the rate of infections before the first peak?
 
Arruda said:
Can you show me your math on this? Or links to wherever you read this.
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I’ve got no idea where you begin. You can spend a lifetime on it! It’s what I currently do for a living in the NHS and local government working in Population Health.

Here’s the WHO website on the (wider) determinants of health: https://www.who.int/hia/evidence/doh/en/

It’s the concept of people’s genetics and access to reactive and emergency healthcare being only one part of what ultimately determines their health and life expectancy. If you want to make people live longer, healthier lives, they need good income, a good education, a safe environment with good sanitation, good transport links, good social support structures, access to healthy, fresh food options etc.

How many outliers do you know of places that have high healthy life expectancy and don’t have a strong economy and societal structures?
 
It took roughly 6 days to get to 3 pages at the start of this thread.

In the last 6 days we posted 119 pages.
 
Starkie_1 said:
I can’t quite work out if you’re on a huge wind up, some kind of cartoon character or genuinely the most negative person on the planet?
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Maybe I'm overly negative. But I see a very bleak future for many if we continue with this lacklustre approach.
 
Di Maria's angel said:
Maybe I'm overly negative. But I see a very bleak future for many if we continue with this lacklustre approach.
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In two to three weeks time in ireland things will be like Italy, unless they shut down the country bar the shops and pharmacies.

Loads of people going to the pubs tonight and will probably do again on St Patricks day.

Heading for a disaster as things stand.
 
I understand that people in Italy can go to the shops and pharmacies, but are people still working in Italy or is that also locked down?
 
Di Maria's angel said:
The only thing that will wake this country up is when we inevitably follow in Italy's path. Once an absurd amount of people start dying, those toilet rolls will come in use as those who don't fear this virus will also be the first to shit themselves. How on earth did we let this escalate to this point in 2 fecking months?
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Cause we had a few false alarms in the last two decades, and people thought that ‘it would be just like the swine flu, or bird flu, or SARS, or MERS or Ebola’ and didn’t take it seriously, when there was a lot of evidence as early as mid-January that this will become a pandemic.
 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-51892402

"Prof van Schaik noted that the UK is the only country in Europe that is following what he described as its "laissez-faire attitude to the virus".

But A Department of Health and Social care spokesperson said that Sir Patrick's comments had been misinterpreted.

"Herd immunity is not part of our action plan, but is a natural by-product of an epidemic. Our aims are to save lives, protect the most vulnerable, and relieve pressure on our NHS,@ he said.

"We have now moved out of the contain phase and into delay, and we have experts working round the clock. Every measure that we have or will introduce will be based on the best scientific evidence."

As said before, we'll probably stop mass gathering first like most have, close schools and be on some sort of lockdown when inline roughly with France Spain numbers.
 
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redshaw said:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-51892402

"Prof van Schaik noted that the UK is the only country in Europe that is following what he described as its "laissez-faire attitude to the virus".

But A Department of Health and Social care spokesperson said that Sir Patrick's comments had been misinterpreted.

"Herd immunity is not part of our action plan, but is a natural by-product of an epidemic. Our aims are to save lives, protect the most vulnerable, and relieve pressure on our NHS,@ he said.

"We have now moved out of the contain phase and into delay, and we have experts working round the clock. Every measure that we have or will introduce will be based on the best scientific evidence."
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Seems to contradict previous statements...
 
Bill Gates was always the smartest person in the room(even when @Eboue was there):

 
Coronavirus: Why is the UK not shutting schools like other countries?

Many countries are taking tough measures to crack down on the spread of coronavirus, including school closures, an end to mass gatherings and severe travel restrictions. But the UK has adopted relatively modest control measures.

The differences can be partly explained by the fact some of these countries are further into their epidemics. But it's clear the UK has adopted a more nuanced approach.

Computer simulations indicate the UK is in the early stages of its epidemic which is expected to rise sharply in four weeks and peak in 10 and 14 weeks' time.

Sir Patrick Vallance, the UK government's chief scientific adviser, and chief medical officer Prof Chris Whitty have made the judgement call that it is too soon to impose severe restrictions at this stage.

Such restrictions might last several months and risk "self-isolation fatigue", with people leaving their homes just as the epidemic was at its height. The elderly are particularly at risk of developing severe symptoms. But many of them are already isolated. Cutting them off from their communities at this stage, when the risks are still relatively low, would create unnecessary difficulties for them.


Sir Patrick and Prof Whitty have also advised against the suspension of mass gatherings. Again, their computer models indicate this would be less effective and more disruptive than the measures they have recommended: hand washing and asking people to self-isolate if they show symptoms of the disease.

These measures, if correctly implemented, could cut the peak of cases by 20%, says Sir Patrick.

"People are very much more likely to catch the virus from a family member or a friend somewhere in a small space rather than a big space [such as a sporting stadium]," he said.

It's the same with school closures. While Ireland, France and Denmark are among a host of northern European countries to shut schools, for the moment at least they remain open in the UK.

Closing schools is effective for controlling serious flu epidemics, but Covid-19 seems to affect children less. There's still a risk, though, they could transmit it to their parents and grandparents. In addition, school closures would take many much needed NHS staff away from their jobs while they look after their children.


The British strategy is to delay the onset of the peak of the disease until the summer months, when the NHS is under less pressure, and to spread the peak of the epidemic to make treatment more manageable. The aim has also been to manage the spread of the infection so that the population builds up some immunity to the virus should it return in successive years.

Efforts to stamp it out too quickly risk leading to the epidemic returning, perhaps during the winter, once the extreme measures have been lifted. This would be a time when the health service was again under pressure.

It is important to stress that this strategy has been drawn up based on evidence and input from many of the world's leading scientists and doctors, many of whom have been involved in controlling the spread of the virus in China and Singapore. And it is notable that no UK epidemiologists - specialists in the spread of diseases - have spoken out in the mainstream media against the UK government's approach.

There are undoubtedly some who do disagree with the strategy. But there is an acceptance by such critics that Sir Patrick and Prof Whitty are the ones in the hot seat, having to make the biggest calls they have made in their professional lives. So the science community is prepared to give them the benefit of the doubt and not speak out, for now at least.


Clarification 14 March 2020: An earlier version of this article said no scientists had spoken out against the government. This has been updated to make clear that, at time of publication, no UK epidemiologists had spoken out in the mainstream media.
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This covers the UK's current strategy pretty well.

It's been determined by scientists and computer simulations, and there's a clear rationale behind it.

Granted, it seem counter-intuitive like round earth or evolution man-made climate change. But the science is behind it.
 
MaxiPaxi said:
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The northern part of the country is probably a mess, there is almost a thousand cases in the Grand-Est region. I wonder how it actually is just on the other side of the border in Germany and Belgium.
 
Hugh Jass said:
Totally. "Ah it will be grand," attitude amongst so many.

Even trying to tell my parents that the shit will hit the fan in the next few weeks and they dont care.
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It'll be fine! Relax! The fear mongering is mental!
 
Dante said:
This covers the UK's current strategy pretty well.

It's been determined by scientists and computer simulations, and there's a clear rationale behind it.

Granted, it seem counter-intuitive like round earth or evolution man-made climate change. But the science is behind it.
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This whole idea that the NHS will be under less pressure is a joke. Will the hospitals be magically empty come May/June? Ridiculous. Even if they were we wouldn’t have enough beds to deal with the numbers they’re proposing.

It’s a stupid plan and it’ll be exposed and there is going to be backtracking.
 
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